I believe that Prisco has it right and that is how it will play out for the first 4 picks.
When Irsay said "that Alabama kid sure looks good" at the Steichen presser, it got Reich to over thinking things and convince Carolina to move up to #1 to ensure that they get Young.
Also the signing of Minshew is a clear indication that the Colts are taking a developmental QB, which leaves Levis or Richardson.
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