Quote:
Originally Posted by rm1369
Ahh yes, the hindsight defense. Very popular. More teams should employ it - see what the results are then make your decision. But what if I point out games where the 4th down conversion and scoring TDs instead of FGs were the deciding factor? Would you change your mind? Probably not since the question would be which is more likely to occur. I know! We should analyze how likely each event is to occur and how likely they are to contribute to victory using math and a lot of historical data. We could call it analytics or something!! I think we are on to something. This could be extremely valuable for NFL coaches!! Of course hindsight users will always hate it since hindsight has proven to be a superior analysis tool commonly used by NFL fans.
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People also often don't take into consideration the butterfly effect.
If you lose by 2pts... People point to that first quarter field goal miss as the reason you lost.
When really, if you made the field goal, all subsequent series of events would be different. You actually could've lost the game by 14pts had you made the field goal. Or you could've won by 10pts. We don't know.