05-12-2021, 06:43 PM
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Post whore
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Join Date: Jun 2018
Location: Indiana
Posts: 5,057
Thanks: 2,385
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dam8610
I don't really understand this. We're discussing opinions, I'm not just going to change mine because there are more or louder opinions from others. If I'm trying to change anyone else's opinion, I'm going to cite evidence that can be verified. Again, I'm not claiming to be an expert, but the best experts get it wrong more than half the time. That makes the margin between the best experts and random chance (which comes in at about 22% success) about 20%.
You're right, expertise does take time. According to people who study such things, expertise takes approximately 10,000 hours of investment in any subject to obtain. I'm no Dane Brugler, but I'd say over 16 years of doing my own film analysis of prospects, I've put in about half that amount of time. It would be neat to put Dane Brugler levels of time into it, but I don't have that much time available to me.
When does it become more than "a blind squirrel finds a nut"?
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When you get paid by an NFL team and be in the room on draft day
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