This is kind of a crazy discussion. The decision to pick Luck was the only rational decision to make at that time, and Manning endorsed it himself. There was no certainty at the time that Manning would even return due to his neck problems. Even Denver, who won the multi-team sweepstakes to sign Manning after he was cut, had enough leverage in their negotiations to include a "neck clause" into their contract which would have voided their contractual guarantees after the first year, so Manning's neck issue was a serious, real world issue and not just an excuse to move on to Luck.
https://www.denverpost.com/2012/03/2...jury-clause-2/
I mean, can you imagine the blowback if we had traded the #1 pick and Manning never returned, or returned and then had to retire shortly thereafter?
It was an unquestionably difficult and unfair situation for everyone involved, and there was no easy way to navigate through it. However, I thought everyone (the Colts, Manning and Irsay) handled it about as well as could reasonably be expected, and I think the decision the Colts made was pretty clearly the right one at the time. I'm sure Manning had some hard feelings though to my knowledge he's never said that.