Texans Settle for a Tie ...... 2018 Reich in Reverse
 

o


Early in the 2018 season, the Colts' game against the Texans went into overtime. With only 27 seconds left, the Colts had a 4th-and-4 from their own 43 yardline. Colts coach Frank Reich decided to roll the dice, and went for it ...... that decision cost the Colts dearly, as the Colts failed to convert, and the Texans went ahead and kicked the game-winning field goal after a 19-yard pass completion and a spike of the ball to stop the clock


Colts Lose to Texans in Overtime after Questionable Decision on 4th Down Sets Texans Up with Short Field

(By Scott Davis)

https://www.businessinsider.com/colt...ecision-2018-9


In yesterday's season-opener, the Texans were in a very similar situation when they had a 4th down and 3 with only 26 seconds left. Even though they were on the Colts' side of the field, the Colts still had a timeout in their pocket, so if the Texans had gone for it on 4th down and failed, the Colts would have at at least 2 chances to complete a pass over the middle, call a time-out, and attempt a long field goal.

Subsequently, the Texans ...... unlike Frank Reich in 2018 ...... decided to cut their losses and settle for a tie, a very prudent decision in a game so early in the season. Reich's decision in 2018 wound up being the difference in the AFC South title, as the Colts beat the Texans later in the season, but finished the season at 10-6 to the Texans' 11-5. If the Colts had settled for the tie, both teams would have had identical 10-5-1 records with the Colts winning the tie-breaker with a 1-0-1 head-on record.

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That 2018 decision by Reich 4 years ago (and the loss of that game) is all water under the bridge ...... I like Reich, even though I was strongly opposed to that highly questionable decision to go for it on 4th down in that situation ...... but the Texans' wise decision to not roll the dice and settle for an early-season tie yesterday afternoon was eerily reminiscent of that game between these same 2 teams 4 years ago, so I thought that I would throw it out there for all of you Colt Freaks to reflect on.

o

I have reflected, Frank Reich still sucks.

I hate ties...I agreed with Reich's decision in 2018 to go for it. Playing for a tie might be prudent, but it is also being a pussy! Just my opinion of course....

i agree here. go for the win

Down here in Texans Land, the consensus seems to be that it was a bitch move yesterday. I know that's how I would feel if we did that. Makes you wonder how your players would take it.

If the Giants had played for the tie yesterday, the Colts might not be tied for first in the division, ballsy move by their coach !

o


Both teams had 70 minutes to go for the win yesterday ...... 60 minutes in regulation, and 10 minutes in overtime ...... and neither team could manage to put the necessary distance between themselves and their opponent for the W. The Texans blew a 17-point lead in the final 11 minutes of the 4th quarter, and the Colts' kicker missed a very makeable 42-yard field goal attempt in overtime.

I don't care how Texans fans feel about what their team does, but I would hope that Colts fans (and Colts players) would be smart enough to understand that 0-0-1 is better than 0-1, that recent history has shown that making a rash, highly questionable decision could be the difference between winning or not winning a division title, and that there are percentages/odds to consider in risk-reward decisions regarding going for the win and settling for a tie late in an overtime period ...... for an extreme example, if a team has 4th down and 30 from their own 15-yardline with 25 seconds left to play in overtime, I would hope that the head coach would not be insane enough to "go for the win" and not punt the ball in that situation. Neither the Colts in 2018 nor the Texans yesterday afternoon were in such dire straits as that hypothetical situation that I just threw out there, but they also were not in particularly favorable positions to decide to go for it, either (especially the Colts in 2018, because they had slightly worse field position in 2018 than the Texans had yesterday afternoon. The Colts were on their own 43 yard-line, whereas the Texans were on the Colts' 49 yard-line.)

o

That's true. But there are a lot of other factors outside of a tie that affected that outcome (like losing to Jacksonville 6-0). The Vikings that same year tied with GB which sent PHI to the playoffs. Had they won, they'd have beaten PHI in the head-to-head tie-breaker and made the playoffs. I'm just saying it can cut both ways.

I mean, you're right. I feel better about the tie than I would if we lost... I guess. But I think the heart of the issue is the mentality. I'm partial to making the aggressive call for a lot of reasons. Either way, I think you have to be consistent.

Lovie Smith bet red yesterday. We know Frank would've bet black because he bets black every time.

o


That's true. But because of the circumstances, I would have punted in both games in 2018 and yesterday in 2022.

Also, there is always a "cause-and-effect" factor that many fans don't take into consideration. For example, in baseball a baserunner can get thrown out stealing 2nd base. Two pitches later, the batter hits a solo home run. A lot of fans scream that if the runner had not tried stealing 2nd base, it would have been a 2-run home run instead of a solo home run ...... NOT NECESSARILY. If the runner were still on 1st base, the pitcher would have been pitching from the stretch instead of a full wind-up. Subsequently, he may have thrown a different pitch than the one that he threw for that solo home run, and the batter may have been looking for a different pitch. He may have hit a 2-run homer, or he may have hit a single, or he may have popped up for an out.

Similarly, we don't know with absolute certainty that the Colts would have won the division if they had settled for a tie in that game 4 years ago, because the standings would have been different for the entire season from then on, the pressure on both the Colts and the Texans would have been slightly different for each game going forward, etc.

o

Lovie had to punt. With 20 seconds, getting the ball at midfield could have given Ryan enough plays to score for the win.