Baldy's Breakdowns - Colts / Kansas City
 

Baldy spread his love around this morning.

Of course, he still enjoys watching big Q play - but he also praised the rest of the O-Line and a few rookies on the defense as well.


Colts O-Line executing the "perfect pocket":

https://twitter.com/BaldyNFL/status/1181169046919766017


Big Q and the Colts O-Line dominating:

https://twitter.com/BaldyNFL/status/1181180073946300421


Khari Willis stepping up and stopping the run:

https://twitter.com/BaldyNFL/status/1181190161280983040


Bobby Okereke in coverage:

https://twitter.com/BaldyNFL/status/1181191789144940545

Truly great win last night, but it troubles me that despite our dominant O-line, our QB managed only a meager 151 yards on 29 pass attempts (5.1 yard average) and rarely attempted - much less completed - any passes over 10 yards. He needs to improve for us to get to the promised land.

I dont disagree, Mahomes had 10 passes over 15 yards, Brissett had one. I have to think that a good bit of it is game planning, we were not going to win a shootout with the Chiefs and their weakness was their run defense. We had to run the ball, consume the clock and keep PM off the field, and keep our battered secondary off the field.

I think more impressive is that everyone in the stadium knew we were going to run the ball and then we dared them to stop us. They couldn't, and we exposed them by simply by executing. This isn't some "blueprint to beat the Chiefs," but rather simple, straightforward ball control offense.

I'm not worried that we didnt ask Brissett to huck it downfield. The last FG drive of the game we took aver with 1:15 left in the third and did not give it back until 7:40 left in the 4th.

My breakdown. Pay Anthony Castonzo now. You are not going to find a better LT in the draft or as an FA, so let's lock him up.

Fair points, though a few counterpoints to consider: (1) if we're going to play the dink and dunk short game then Brissett has to be better than a 62% passer on those kind of passes, and (2) I'm not sure our run game was quite as dominant as everyone's feeling in the afterglow of victory today - we averaged 4 YPC while I read that KC has given up an average of 5.1 YPC this season, and we had rely on converting a number of 4th downs to keep our drives alive. As to this latter point, some of this was undoubtedly due to unfortunate and highly questionable penalties or ineffective passes.

Agreed, the guy is only 31 and seems to keep himself in good shape for such a big guy, and offensive linemen can remain effective well into their thirties.

what troubles me, and we've seen it before already this season, is that even though we are running effectively, when we go play action, it never results in a big pass play. I still don't watch the all-22 so either our receivers can't get open despite other teams worrying about the run, or JB is not seeing the routes develop, he constantly checks down. I don't want to call him check-down Charlie, but I'm worried it's coming to that.

Brissetts deep throws scare me.

You mean into double and triple coverage?

WhIle that's true they were still effective running the info 8 or 9 in the box.

They knew we wanted to run and we knew they knew we wanted to run and we still run and won. I've literally never seen a Colts team do that. Not that I can remember. It ruled.

Have seen it done to the Colts many times.... It was nice seeing it done by the Colts.

Agreed.
His inability to take advantage of all-out blitz packages is also a big worry. There were a couple of plays yesterday where, had he made the right adjustment, he could easily have torched the blitzing Chiefs. He just holds on to the ball too long, scrambles out of the pocket and comes up with nothing.

I agree. What you're pointing out just further highlights how frustratingly painful Andrew Luck's decision to retire was.

We have a lot in place of what's needed to be a truly elite team. We have the elite head coach. We have a really good GM. We have an elite offensive line. Our offensive playmakers are good but could use a few upgrades. Our defense is still bad (although last night indicates otherwise), but we have an uber-elite defensive stud in tow who's only in his second season.

We're just missing the QB. Luck is/was good enough to cover up some of the other flaws that are still pretty glaring. Brissett, as good of a locker room guy and leader he is, isn't good enough to consistently cover up those weaknesses.

This is going to be a season of extreme highs and extreme lows because it's so heavily dependent on our so-so/mediocre QB. But I am excited about the franchise's future with Reich and Ballard leading the way. We really are just an upgrade at QB away from being back into contender status. Unfortunately, upgrading at QB is no small feat, especially if the expectation is to find someone of Luck's caliber or at least 90% of Luck's caliber.

Disagree. New York Giants under Parcells- that's what a friend characterized us as in this new version, and it fits perfectly. They had Phil Simms at QB, he was never asked to be Dan Marino, he was asked to play good football and make great decisions and to rely on the strength of the team around him, call it game manager if you need, but he constantly put the team in a position to win. They were a constant SB threat behind a brilliant coach, a great running game and a tremendous D. You can't name a WR from that era, they had a great TE in Bavaro but never had a standout WR for Simms to throw to but time and time again their coach proved he was better than the others in the league. I think that's exactly what we have in Frank.

I fully believe a tandem of Ballard and Reich are the perfect guys to construct a team that is contrarian to the current cheat code offenses proliferating the landscape, a team that just imposes their will. Without the massive investment at the QB position you can build up a lot of skill in different areas. I loved the arcade level excitement of the Manning years throwing the ball all over the field, but all that top end offensive expense, it got us one title.

I don't think Parcells would have been happy if Simms had put up a stat line like Brisset's in KC.

Look, all Wayne'sWorld was saying is that seeing the team play like they did in KC makes you think "What if?"

I understand the what if, and it's intriguing as it's hard to think that Luck probably hasn't gashed some of those zero blitzes for TD's, that said, Luck also probably has at least a couple more picks than JB has right now because let's face it, Luck was never guilty of being the most accurate passer in the NFL.

Simms was a 55% passer and passed for an average of just a tad over 200 per game (yeah I know it was a far different era...). What we saw as a fairly crappy game by JB Sunday- he was at 62%. He had a bad INT for sure, but that's only his 3rd through 3 games, that's certainly tolerable when you have a running game that 3 times in 5 games has rushed for more than we have passed for.

I'm not saying it can't happen, but has any team in the last 15 years won a SB with that strategy?

Perhaps Peyton's win with the Broncos? PM put up some ridiculous numbers the first few years in Denver, but he was a shell of his former self in 2015 when they won it all. He was basically a game manager. They had a good running game and an awesome defense.

Here were Peyton's numbers over the 3 playoff games that year:

51 for 92 (55% comp), 539 yards, 5.9 Y/A, 2 TD, 1 INT

In two of the three playoff games, he didn't even throw a TD.

Point taken. I'm pretty sure we don't have the 2015 Broncos defense though.

Agreed. The Colts defense has a ways to go to reach that type of level.

First thing that came to my mind was that Broncos team as well- great call. Peyton was not the Manning of old and that running game was very good and the D was flat out brilliant, probably the best since 85 Bears, at the very least right on par with the 13' Ravens.

Yes, undoubtedly we have a ways to go, and I'm not going to say we're on that level to where you can simply go three and out and say "F, it, they aren't moving the ball on these guys". However I think Ballard has put together some guys that are going to be a pretty fucking solid unit coming down the stretch.

We know we have an All-Pro LB (he will get it going...) and I really think the youngsters in Okereke and Speed are both going to prove to be very very good. Can one of them become Marshall to Leonard's Singletary- I think that is very realistic.

Twice today I heard Willis referred to in the vein of Bob Sanders by two different talking heads, Holder said that the guy has looked like the fastest and hardest hitting guy since camp started and said it's just a matter of time until he emerges as a star. Him and Hooker on the back end is pretty compelling. Ya-Sin- I think he has already started to show that in short order he is going to emerge as the sticky cover guy that can take a top guy off the table.

To reach the elite level we gotta get something more out of the DL- and maybe that happens by committee, we know that's the most glaring omission on this squad and has to be top priority in the off-season.

Most importantly, I heard Frank talking today about how much they mixed it up against KC. Talked about how we played a lot more press man coverage after playing a ton of zone against ATL and OAK. He said he thought that was a big factor in us getting a lot of pressure on Mahomes. What is so encouraging there- is just the statement that we mixed things up!

No more Chopping Wood (Pags), no more of we just have to do what we do (Dungy). Nope, in Frank we have a Belicheck, a guy that knows these coordinators n the other side are too good, you have to show them different looks and be the puncher not the counter puncher. I love that we have a coach that is game planning game by game by game, hell possession by possession, LOVE IT! So tired of seeing the same thing over and over and over and seeing the OC's pick us apart. And personally I think that puts us a hell of a lot closer to a title caliber team than having a stud QB and not much else.

Tom Brady (yeah, I went there) has played like that for years and no body cares. One bad pass. It was bad because they were in scoring position. Everything else was very good. They had the lead most of the game. He didn't need to force it down the field. He did exactly what he needed to do to keep KC from loading the box.

Really? Go look up Simms' stats. He had a big arm to deal with the winds in the Meadowlands but Parcells teams were know for RUNNING the ball.

They played pretty good on D considering they didn't have either starting safety and their best D player on the field. Against the best offense in the NFL.

If a team wants to beat NE in bad weather in NE, then they need to be able to run the ball.

Something else that doesn't get any pub when there's all this talk of JB dumping dumping dumping. He's thrown two deep throws down the middle that have been huge PI's for Cain. I think the one in KC was the longest penalty in the NFL this year at 53 yards. That doesn't go to anyone's stat sheet but it's a big damn play coming off the arm of the QB.

I will say that I think it was Holder that said if he throws it a 1/2 tick earlier Cain was behind them and it's a certain 6 (assuming he catches it). Nonetheless, it's evidence he WILL throw it down the field- just need to see it more frequently with the set up by these D's that will be loading the box to try to stop the run.

Brady does not play like this at all.

If I recall correctly, Cain did not have his defenders beat on either occasion, and was actually double or triple covered both times. So I don't give credit to Brissett for the fact that we lucked out on getting PI penalties in those circumstances. That seems like playing with fire instead.

Anyone got the all 22 on this one? Holder said Cain had cleared and just needed an earlier pass...

I do give him credit, those are throws WE HAVE TO THROW to keep these Defenses off balance, have to do it. Can't have it both ways, can't gripe that all he does is check down (admittedly he does it more than I want to see), but then bitch when he throws it deep but guys are covered...

Luck could have hit it to Cain. He was late

He was also late to PC in the Oakland game. PC had 2 steps on everyone

I’ve decided to not give JB too much shit. He ain’t Luck and never will be. So I’m taking him for what he is. And I’m pretty happy he’s a Colt

Starting to warm up to Mack too. He’s playing hard and is WAY WAY better than he was when I dogged him out. Guessing he reads this forum

I've often pondered how good a lot of these motherfuckers would be if they would just listen when I yell at them on Sundays...

He has started 20 games in his NFL career. I'd say Jacoby still has some time/room to improve. They will win 10 games this year with him as a 'game manager' and he will keep improving all year. By playoff time, and certainly by next year, he will be at least at the top-16 in the league level. Combine that with the running game, and a young and constantly improving defense, and the team will be a tough out.

I maintain that this team, with Jacoby, is only two games worse than a Colt team with Luck starting. Luck was good, but he was no Peyton, Brees, Brady, Roethlisburger, Rivers, or Rogers.

If Luck had the O lines that Brady and Peyton had early in their careers . Luck was getting beat up right out the gates and never had anything resembling a Line of protection until last year.

Yet, Luck still put up some amazing numbers and still carried teams with Bad defenses that couldn't stop the run. Easy to say he was no Peyton, no Brady but damn if he wasnt right there with them if he had an Offensive Line.

I can’t help but think what Luck would be doing with this team. I don’t know if they would stack the box. Especially with TY out there.

Jacoby is decent and has perfomed a bit better than I expected. However, sometimes you need a bit of magic, something a little extra to pull out a win. I am not sure we are getting that out of JB.

He is probably a 20-10 range starting QB. Maybe that is a bit generous. The question I have is whether he can and will improve, or do we have to go find another QB?

I don't think we need to find another QB. A rising tide lifts all boats. As our defense gets healthy again it will imporove. Our O line got embarrassed by the Raiders, and improved. Our D line showed significant improvement against the Chiefs.

Brissett's improvements will come 40% from himself, getting more comfortable in his role, and 60% will come from game planning and playing to Brissett's strengths, along with OL, Mack, DL, secondary improving as they gain experience and health.

We are going to lose several more games, including a few the we should not lose, we have seen two of those already.

We *should* will all but one of our remaining games. We wont, but we should.

I think the Raiders May be a little bit better than people think. But keep in mind the Chiefs weakness is its lines and they have the worst run defense in the league. Offenses are funneled through the QB now. His decision making and accuracy determines everything. But JB will have to learn to pick up the blitz and exploit it. If he doesn’t we will need a new QB.