Cap Space & Extending Brissett
 

According to the NFLPA website (via Holder), the Colts have $54.5MM in cap space for 2019 now that Luck's base salary is off the books. While this opens the door to possible extensions now for other players (e.g. Castonzo, Ebron, Doyle), I think extending Brissett is worth some consideration.

(This is of course reliant on the Colts internal assessment of Brissett (do they really think he's a top 20 QB) and Brissett's willingness to agree to some form of a team-friendly deal.)

There are a couple main reasons to explore this:
1) The ample cap space now could be used to reduce the impact on future seasons.
2) The free agent crop of QBs isn't very good.
3) If Brissett plays well, he'll only get more expensive.

We can use Garoppolo's contract with the 49ers as a template:

5 years, $137MM, $74MM guaranteed, BUT the deal was seriously frontloaded w/$55MM paid in the first two seasons. After year two, the 49ers can cut Garoppolo at a modest $5MM cap hit.

I don't think Brissett can command quite that deal at this point in time, but that's the basic structure that could work for the Colts. Frontload a Brissett deal to minimize the cap impact in 2020 and beyond and give yourself an out if he doesn't prove to be the guy. This kind of deal would have several benefits:

1) Reduce cap hit on possible extension/tagging (if Brissett proves capable)
2) Give yourself an out after 1-2 years (if Brissett isn't the guy)
3) Even if Brissett isn't the guy, whoever the Colts get in the 2020 draft may not be ready day 1. Brissett can serve as a stopgap in 2020 until that player is ready to hit the field (e.g. Alex Smith in 2017 for the Chiefs).

I wouldn't be extending him until we see how he can play, at least give it half a season.

I just think its too risky right now. Tie up cap space in a guy that might not be the long term answer.

If he plays great this year and deserves a big contract, I'm Ok with that. That's why the cap space is there, to sign deserving players. ANd then we know we have a QB

If we pay him now just to be cheap though and are stuck with him due to contract reasons, it just creates another problem

And despite what the Giants are trying to do and what the Chiefs did with Mahomes, you draft a guy now and they play year one if they are the future starter.

This comes across as trying to get by with a cheap option and hoping you get lucky that he overplays the contract. its risky and doesn't strike me as something Ballard would want to do.

Maybe as the season unfolds he deserves an extension. I certainly hope so. But not until we see what he can do with this team.

I am currently not excited about the thought of brissett as our long term option

No way would I extend Brissett unless he was cool with top backup money. And he wouldn’t be

AND Brisset may not want an extension. Choosing to bet on himself as a full time starter and see what the open market can give him.

If you wait, you run the risk of him putting up solid numbers and commanding a contract on par with Garoppolo's. That's the downside.

What I'm suggesting is to frontload a big part of it into the 2019 cap space and structure it so that you can get out after 2019 or 2020 if he isn't the right guy. Basically, cut Brissett a $30MM check now and cut bait pretty quickly if he isn't the guy...or save a TON of money from 2020-2023 if he is a solid starter.

Of course. That's the underlying assumption.

No big money contract extension until we see how he does this season.

Still not really sure what you mean there or how you are suggesting this be structured. You just want to give him a big salary for next year or this year, but then less money for 2020 to 2023 in case he doesn't work out so you have him under contract?

Again not clear on the structure you have in mind but just offhand, I don't know why he would take such a deal. And that doesn't seem like an extension, that seems like a big 1-2 year contract to be a starter in 2019 or 2020.

He's got to have a really good season to give any other team the encouragement to throw stupid money at him.

This is a young team, with a good front office and pretty good staff. The only place that can offer him stupid money is a team that sucks and has a lot of cap space.

So, assuming he has a good year, he may get some traction in the league. He can make a lot of money here, and win if he and the team can be creative and smart about years, incentives, all the fun stuff Ballard will need to use. But the Colts have an inside track.

If he wins here, he will be inclined to stay here

The bold is basically what I'm saying. I'll just throw out this deal as an example so you know what I'm talking about:

5 years (2019-2023), $100MM, $50MM guaranteed
-2019: $35MM (fully guaranteed)
-2020: $20MM ($15MM guaranteed)
-2021-2023: $18.3MM per year ($0 guaranteed)

A deal like this would give Brissett a ton of money upfront, while also protecting the team in case he sucks (cut after 2020 or 2021) or is good enough to extend (major savings in 2021-2023 vs what he could potentially cost). The only real cost is the huge 2019 cap hit, but the team has a ton of room anyway. Even if they think Brissett turns out to be a 2020 stopgap, he would be cheaper under this deal than the franchise tag in 2020 ($25MM).

I see that as how Dr. Spaceman sees it--you're trying to pay up now to have him bail the team out of a jam yet expecting him to not be good enough to be a long-term solution (which if it were me would be seen as an insult) OR hoping to lowball him on the back end of the deal (which is also a bit of an insult--thanks for exceeding our expectations, now here's a paycheck well below what you've EARNED from such good fortune) when if he just let it play out and bet on himself, he'd probably see about as much money anyway--unless his ceiling is a decent backup--at which point the team should've just waited for him to prove it.

Sorry, but I just can’t see this happening. Ballard’s built up a pretty good reputation during his short tenure in Indy, and if he signs an unproven Brissett to a contract paying him a guaranteed $35M next year I think people would start thinking he’s a lunatic. If Brissett surprises everyone and becomes a Pro Bowl QB next year, Ballard would be vindicated, but short of that he’d most likely end up looking like a fool.

I know its appealing to lock up a young player at a bargain price before he blossoms, but I think you need to be very judicious about which players you do this with. Paying Brissett that kind of money would essentially force us to commit to him as our most important player for the next two years, and I personally don’t see the track record to justify that and so, to me, it would just be reckless.

Couldn't agree more, he hasn't proven jack shit yet.

This entire thought exercise is predicated on the notion that the team actually believes he is a Top 20 QB. If they aren't sure in that regard, then scrap the entire idea.

I want to see if Brissett steps up in the playoffs before I pay him. I loved watching Luck play because he was a physical freak who made plays that just seemed unbelievable. Objectively, however, he wasn't as good a playoff qb as he was in regular season. Quarterback rating are not the be all but Luck's drop off from regular season was much more pronounced that either Manning or Brady (a class we all thought he belonged in). Manning/Brady both dropped about 6 points on rating from regular season to playoffs, Luck dropped 16 points. I want a qb that thrives in playoff atmosphere and is devastated when we lose. I want a sore loser as my qb. I have no idea if Brissett is that guy but want to know before we sign him long term.

I wouldn't read much into those stats. Most seasons, the team around Luck in the playoffs wasn't any good. I bet if you controlled for his regular season rating against other top tier teams, the rating would be pretty similar.

You may be 100% correct about those stats. I'm an old school type of guy and never liked that Luck was such a good loser. Being happy with a guy and patting him on his ass for beating your lineman and sacking your ass just never sat well with me. I may be showing just how out of touch I am and football has left me behind.

Luck was certainly different, but different doesn't necessarily mean better or worse. I think all of us forget that perspective from time to time.

We have no idea how he was in private. It may have eaten him up. What we do know is that when we were behind in a game, he killed himself to try to get the lead back, and did it in the playoffs. Remember the KC game where we were behind big, but we won on his late heroics?

And it's just not a statistically significant difference when we're talking about 8 playoff games vs 86 career regular season games. The margin of error would be like 30%, and that's without controlling for other factors like home/away and quality of opponent.

Not only that, but going back to my previous point, 25% of his postseason games were against New England on the road. You would automatically expect his postseason rating to be lower than his average career rating based on that alone.

Over the next 2 years he is going to be the most important player, if not, who?

Maybe. But in one of the articles explaining why he can walk away one of the reporters (I think it was Holder) mentioned seeing him smiling and having fun after a loss and the conversation he had led let him know that Luck though of this as just a game. Do not misunderstand me please, I think this is the mature healthy attitude to have-the attitude I would hope my son would have. I am hypocritical enough that I don't particularly want that attitude in my qb. Having run my mouth I will say that I think the argument that he would have lit up the post season just like he has the regular season given enough chances is something I 100% bought into before his retirement. I readily admit to having sour grapes over the entire episode. He truly was the physically most talented qb I've ever rooted for. I'll miss the bastard.

He won't be our most important player if he flames out halfway through this season, and we need the flexibility to move on to someone else if he doesn't work out as we hope. If we guaranteed him $50 million today, it would be very hard to change horses before 2021. QB is too important of a position to take wild gambles on. That's all I'm saying.

What do you need the flexibility for? You aren't going to find a free agent worth the money. You'd be drafting his replacement anyway.

We can't keep sending Brissett out there if he's not getting the job done. It will ruin a team which, with even an average QB, should still be a contender. Yet, if we paid him the big bucks you are advocating, it would be very, very difficult to make a change because the existing regime would need to justify their decision or be branded incompetent. I just don't think Brissett has enough of a track record to merit the kind of money you are suggesting he should be paid, and to me it could disastrous to do something like that.

As far as a different QB, it's true we probably can't get a Pro Bowl QB outside of the draft, but we could get a competent one with a solid track record. And I disagree that they wouldn't be worth the money. Nearly every competent QB is underpaid, when you consider the outsized influence the QB position has on the outcome of games.

No you aren’t. You’re getting Joe Flacco or Ryan Fitzpatrick.

Every once in a while you get a shot at a Drew Brees

For every Drew Brees, there are 10 Mile Glennon’s.

I know, just like the draft. It’s what makes him retiring so tough

Fucking dumb

Kurt Warner. You can find a guy that wasn’t drafted.

But finding a good QB is hard. Most teams go through several till they get one. We got lucky with two in a row. See what happens this year.

So many good points made in this thread.

From my simple view, stick with "Brisket" and Kelly for now. Reich did wonders using his Philly back up Foles so maybe lightning strikes twice with #7?

Not sure what the projected top QB's look like in next years draft or the year after as I had zero idea that Luck would bolt on short notice. That said, I would think we should draft a long term replacement ASAP and plan on him having time to learn from the current guys/coaches while having thee time to develop without jumping into the deep end right away. It seems Reich has done well with QBs to date so may be a good approach. :cool:

Welcome aboard !!! :cool:

Thank you Sir! Pleasure to be here and posting versus my usual lurking.

Yep. They must draft a QB in 2020 regardless of what they do with Brissett.

Sounds like the Colts are about to do just that:

@BenVolin
League source says Colts and Jacoby Brissett are close on a new deal. Should be signed on the next 24 hours. Will be a nice pay raise for the fourth-year QB

Wow, this is a very interesting turn of events. I would not have expected Ballard to go this route.

It all depends on the terms. Don’t pay attention to the initial numbers. Wait to know how much is guaranteed after years 1 & 2.