Chefs vs top 10 Defenses
 

Oof.... 5 games vs a top 10 defense, the chiefs won all but one of them:

#1 Ravens - won by 3
#5 Jags - won by 16
#6 Steelers - won by 5
#9 Chargers - won by 10, lost by 1

It's round 2 of the playoffs, every team is good, but wow, the chiefs O is going to be a tough draw.

Indianapolis has not faced a top 10 offense this year. KC is #1. Anyone who says they aren't scared of the chiefs is smoking crack. This is by far the colts toughest test.

That said.....from a MMQB article:
They are not playing a "top ten defense."

They are playing the NFL's #1 scoring defense over the past 11 games (giving up an average of 15.55 points per game including against HOU).

Inmovable Object meet Irresistable Force.

Luckily, our offense versus their defense is a MUCH more favorable matchup.

If we can control the clock, limit their possessions and force some FGs or turnovers (by downs, INT or FF, whatever), then I think we will be good.

Walk Worthy,

I’m not sure there’s a realistic chance we win this game. That offense is overwhelming and the defense plays a LOT better at home.

If we hold them under 35, I’ll be shocked.

The Chiefs defense also has to play the Colts offense, and all the Chiefs defense really has going for it is a lesser version of Watt, Clowney, and Mercilus. We saw how that worked out for Houston.

They equal Watt and Clowney with Ford and Houston, plus they have Chris Jones, the best d lineman not named Aaron Donald in the league this year.

It’s their linebackers and secondary that struggle. The pass rush is very very good.

Jones would be the Watt equivalent, Houston and Ford are more similar to Clowney and Mercilus. And you made my point for me. Like the Texans, all the Chiefs defense has going for them is their pass rush, and we saw what happened to the Texans.

and there is the andy reid effect.

I am the egg man

This is also the Chiefs biggest test. They have not played an offensive line like ours (cause nobody has one). I'm thinking that the bandwagon for this defense has left and we are just waving at it. This defense is good. We just cannot believe it because every one of us thought it would be crap. Our corners are playing great but nobody can believe it because at the beginning of the year we all thought they sucked. I personally viewed Walker as a lousy lber but the guy is ballin'. My real worry is our youth, sometimes it doesn't travel well. Even then I think we are playing in 2 weeks. They don't scare me and I gave up smokin crack years ago. Believe man, believe.

We play zone 80 percent of the time.

Mahomes has faced 5 teams this season who play majority zone. He’s completed 64 percent of his passes, 8 yards per attempt, with 14 touchdowns and no interceptions.

I hope Eberflus has a surprise or two up his sleeve because Mahomes will murder our zone.

I get it. You may be correct. Actually probably are. I just think there may be a different narrative and that is that this group of guys have somehow jelled as a team and are damn good. I’m going to believe that. They do

Eberflus has also proven he will adjust his scheme to fit the opponent.

The way Manning picked on the soft spots in our zone does have me a bit concerned. But Walker was out for that game and it made a big difference in our players being where they belonged.

We can't play with 2 deep safeties all game. We can't vacate the middle of the field. We will probably need to put Wilson or Desir on Watkins while bracketing one or both of Hill and Kelce. And just play as hard as possible. Letting Mahomes slice up the soft spots for 10+ minute drives is worse than giving up a bomb to Hill.

Our DL needs to have another breakout game where they go off for 7 sacks. Mahomes played lights out but is still a young QB and speeding up his mental clock could force a mistake or two.

And lets hope Kansas City reads and believes that they are an offensive juggernaut like everyone is saying. I also think that we Colt fans are not used to having a coaching staff that has a very good chance of out coaching the opponent. We do now so there is that.

Mahomes has yet to play a playoff game. A whole new ballgame and a different kind of pressure.

I mean, the fan in me is hoping for a win.

But realistically, if Mahomes has his typical game and Luck and the offense aren’t perfect, I can see this one getting ugly.

Mahomes is a different animal from anything we’ve faced yet this year. He is highly mobile, has excellent pocket awareness, and, unlike Watson, is extremely accurate. He can make every throw, both inside and outside the pocket.

Plus, he’s surrounded by weapons. Kelce, Hill, Watkins, Conley.

I really hope I’m wrong and I think, with another good draft and perhaps some FA additions, we will match up better with them in the future.

I’m just doubtful we can pull off the upset this weekend.

I agree with you, however, I was....

...doubtful we would sweep our three home games after the bye
...doubtful we would beat the Titans
...doubtful that this team would shut out the Cowboys
...doubtful that we would beat the Texans
...wildly doubtful we would make the playoffs
...stunningly doubtful we would win a playoff game
...mind blowingly doubtful that the 1-5 team would rip of 10 wins in their next 11 games

Oldcolt has convinced me, I'm done with doubt this season. Chefs about to get stunned.

Sorry Pez, but the premise of this post is incorrect because KC actually LOST at home to the Chargers by 1 point. The Chiefs are beatable, but the Colts will need to have a few things go their way. If they played 10 times, maybe the Colts win 3. I'm just hoping Saturday is one of those 3.

I thought the defensive scheme Eberflus was bringing was supposed to be Cover 3 heavy? If they trust Hooker, I think this defense's best chance will be to play him as the high safety in a variant cover 3/cover 1 look, essentially switching between man and zone a lot to confuse Mahomes and give him different looks, and do everything they can to bracket Kelce while trusting the CBs to cover Hill and Watkins. I'd say Walker, Leonard, and possibly Geathers will likely spend a lot of their game alternating between being part of the Kelce bracket and spying Mahomes.

I feel your doubt. One of us will be eating crow Saturday. I feel confident in saying we both hope it's not me.

Bloody hell, you're right... fixed it up.

From Evan Silva:

Colts will have to mix in a lot more man this week to have a chance. Luckily the corners have been playing a lot better lately. Gives me some hope that Desir, Moore, and Wilson can at least slow KC and give the pass rush a chance.

EDIT: Actually, the TD:INT rate is the only thing that stands out for Maholmes against zone. His yearly numbers for completion % and YPA were actually better.

That offense is going to get theirs. Can we be as effective? Get that running game going. Eat TOP. Against a highly accurate QB there is only so much you can do. Best way is to keep them off the field.

If you limit possessions, that also puts pressure on the Colts offense to be more efficient than the Chiefs in those limited possessions. I expect Reich to be very aggressive on 4th down decisions because FGs aren’t going to cut it this week.

We have a great 3rd down conversion rate. They can work down the field if they want. I find them pretty flexible, up tempo, grind it out, Luck seems to be able to manipulate how they need to.

That fan base is beyond high anxiety right now. Show some dominance and they should quiet down.

I would be too, if I were one of them. The Colts probably feel like their achilles heel after 95 and 03 and 06 and 13. Colts have knocked them out of the playoffs 4 out of their last 9 appearances, going 4-0 in the process.

That stadium will get really quiet if the Colts start strong. Remember how quiet RCA was after the pick-6 to go down 21-3 to the Pats?

The weather in Kansas City calls for 38 degrees high and snow in the morning. We are going to see how much punishment our line is capable of dishing out. Things gotta really sting in that cold. I've never really rooted for a team that just physically tried to impose their will on another. It should be interesting.

Something definitely worth keeping an eye on.

I think if the Chiefs score less than 35, Colts win.

In all my years as a Colts fan, this is the first time I am happy about a report of snow potentially happening around the time of a playoff game. How times have changed.

Doubt weather matters much outside of a blizzard. Manning won plenty of games in bitterly cold but non-blizzardy KC.

Agree with this, was talking to a friend today, and if we can have a high-percentage, short pass, run the ball, screen kind of offense we can theoretically run more plays, more TOP and limit same on the chiefs.

If we commit to this sort of game plan, execution has to be at a very high level. If we go on 10+ play drives and run 6-7 mins off the clock for a FG, we're hosing ourselves as much as KC.

It's an odd risk / reward scenario, but very tempting as we will be playing our best match-up, the 7th ranked offense against the 30th ranked defense, vs the 1st rated offense against the 10th best defense.

As someone said earlier in the thread, if you only consider the last half of the season, KC and Indy are the #1 and #2 offenses in the AFC, and Indy is the #1 defense in the AFC...

This is going to be a great football game.

Our defense has played well, albeit against the Dak Prescott’s and Blake Bortles of the world. They haven’t faced a really GOOD quarterback since Tom Brady on Oct 4th. Unless you consider Tannehill or Derek Carr really good, which I don’t.

Heck, Eli Manning nearly beat us at home week 16.

Forgive me, I’m skeptical that they can hold up on the road against the MVP, who they’ve never seen before.

The chiefs in their 4 losses averaged 37.5 points per game. They are going to score. We have to run the shit out of the ball to shorten the game and limit their possession as much as possible. We have to finish those drives off with TD's, and we have to get some turnovers on defense.

I get the skepticism and concern. Until this team wins you gotta be skeptical (by the way what has Kansas City won recently?). I just think people are to hard on this defense. The coaching and scheming (by that I mean getting your players in a position where they are asked to do what they do best) gets you half way there. I disagree with most that what we need is a great pass rushing lineman. First off how many of those exist? Five, maybe six really great ones. While we may not have great ones we don't have any pieces of crap either. If you can get a line where everyone is a little bit better than average you can have a line that you can win with. We have a legitimately good run defense. I can't remember when that was true. We don't give up long bombs. Will great offenses score on us, hell yes. But unlike previous teams I've rooted for these guys try to take away the ball. The Kansas City defenses biggest weapon is their pass rush. I like our chances at neutralizing it. Ballard's investment up front needs to pay off and I'm betting it does. We should win this game.

I see one glaring weakness there, and in the playoffs, those tend to get exposed.

Inch of snow forecasted for Saturday.

Do that help or hurt the colts?

Helps tremendously. Slows pass rush and passing attack, which is pretty much what KC's strengths are.

Only an inch probably has little impact. Temperatures are above freezing all week, so most will melt right away. Colts would prefer a slower track rather than a slightly slick track.

Reich was on Polian’s radio show. Said they are going to come out firing. Said they aren’t going to try and control the clock etc. got the impression he thinks it will be a shoot out.