The AFC South, 2026 Season
 

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2026 AFC South Preview, Off-Season Recap for the Jaguars, the Texans, the Colts & the Titans

(By Jacob Robinson)

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/749...-colts-titans/



Inside: l Our AFC South preview, where a previously forgettable division has at least 3 contenders in the Jaguars, the Texans and the Colts.


AFC South Preview


The Texans arrived in 2002, forcing the league to rethink everything, including divisions. That led to the creation of the AFC South, which added the Colts (formerly in the AFC East), Jaguars (the AFC Central) and Titans (the AFC Central.)

It hasn't been a strong group: l Among divisions, the AFC South has the lowest winning percentage (.476) and the longest Super Bowl drought (19 years), and it is the only group with multiple teams (the Jaguars and the Texans) to never make a Super Bowl.

But things are looking up: l The Jaguars and the Texans were among the AFC’s top teams last year, while the Colts started 8-2 before a rash of injuries led to a late-season collapse. Tennessee has …... fresh new jerseys ??? Cam Ward ???



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The Jacksonville Jaguars ) (13-4, lost in Wild-Card round in 2025)


Headline Change: l Lost veterans. Star linebacker Devin Lloyd signed with the Panthers, running back Travis Etienne is in New Orleans, and cornerback Greg Newsome joined the Giants. The Jaguars filled those gaps with internal talent, which means that players such as running back Bhayshul Tuten are breakout candidates.

Subtle Change: l Continuity. As the above chart makes clear, every projected starter was on the roster last season. That consistency is invaluable for coach Liam Coen, an elite play-caller whose Jaguars started 4-3 and averaged 20.9 points-per-game until settling in. They then became the NFL’s hottest team, finishing 9-1 and ranking 2nd in points-per-game (32.8) after Week 8, with wins over the Broncos and the Chargers.

Lingering Question: l What will Travis Hunter offer ??? The Jaguars need help in the secondary and are expected to play Hunter at cornerback on a full-time basis, with occasional reps at wide receiver. He is noticeably bigger than last season, which should help the dual-threat stay healthy.

Projection: 10-7 l This team will be tested early next season, facing the Broncos, the Patriots, the Bengals, the Eagles and the Texans before Week 7. But after the Jaguars finished one 4-down stop away from beating the Bills in the post-season, don’t be surprised to see Jacksonville finish with double-digit wins for the 2nd consecutive season, which would be a first for the franchise in the 2000's.


The Indianapolis Colts ) (8-9 in 2025)


Headline: Daniel Jones' recovery. l Achilles injuries are notoriously difficult in the first year of recovery, and Jones relies on his legs pretty often. All reports are positive, with Jones looking sharp while taking every first-team rep in practices. “He looks like he never got hurt,” tight end Mo Alie-Cox said.

Subtle Change: A healthy defense. l While the quarterback’s injury dominated headlines, the Colts’ collapse also coincided with several injuries to defensive stars such as DeForest Buckner, Charvarius Ward, and Sauce Gardner. In Weeks 1 through 7, a healthy Colts defense ranked 4th in defensive EPA per play ...... they are Ted Nguyen’s pick for a breakout in 2026.

Question: Can their linebackers deliver ???: l Zaire Franklin had a down year and was traded to Green Bay this offseason, replaced by 2nd-round rookie CJ Allen and former Bengal Akeem Davis-Gaither. This is the team’s biggest weakness.

Projection: 10-7 l The schedule lightens after a brutal opening slate of the Ravens, the Chiefs and the Texans, so don’t fret if the Colts have a losing record by Week 4. This is a strong team ...... Philip Rivers nearly beat the eventual Super Bowl champion Seahawks on their homefield in northwestern Washington with these Colts, though they did finish 2025 with 7 straight losses.


The Houston Texans ) (12-5, lost in Divisional round in 2025)


Headline Change: C.J. Stroud's prove it year l It’s easy to blame surroundings for Stroud’s continued regression, but backup QB Davis Mills was 3-0 as a starter last season with wins against the Jaguars, the Bills and the Titans. The 25-year-old Stroud has to bounce back from last year’s playoff catastrophe ...... this defense deserves better.

Subtle Change: Revamped interior line. l The Texans reached on center Keylan Rutledge in this year’s 1st round, signed 3-time Pro Bowl guard Wyatt Teller, and signed 8-year veteran Braden Smith from the Colts to play right tackle. That should help Stroud operate comfortably from the pocket. More importantly, it’ll help their run game.

Lingering Question: Can they run the ball ??? l Houston was the league’s 2nd-worst rushing team on first downs (by both yards-per-carry and expected points added.) No one told them ??? The Texans stubbornly ran the ball on first downs at the league’s 5-highest rate, which put Stroud behind schedule and in predictable passing situations. The improved line, plus the addition of running back David Montgomery, should help there.

Projection: 9-8 l After its Week 6 bye last year, Houston closed the season with a 7-2 record in one-score games, which contributed to an impressive 12-5 record. I’m skeptical that the Texans can repeat that against one of the league’s toughest schedules (7th overall). Or maybe I’m just still upset about my 2025 dark-horse Super Bowl pick losing a winnable game in New England ??? If Stroud takes a step and the run game emerges, this team could also finish atop the AFC. There’s a wide-range here, given how talented the defense is.


The Tennessee Titans ) (3-14 in 2025)


Headline Change: Hiring head coach Robert Saleh l Like when coach Mike Vrabel arrived in New England, Saleh’s first move in Tennessee was to spend heavily on fortifying the roster ...... the Titans spent more on free agents than any other NFL team, including 3 of the top-20 players available.

Subtle Change: Strong defensive line. l The Titans’ pairing of free agent John Franklin-Myers with All-Pro Jeffery Simmons makes them 1 of 4 teams with multiple players near the top of Bleacher Report’s defensive linemen rankings. Already among the league’s toughest run defenses (fewest yards before contact allowed), Tennessee should be even better in that regard this season.

Lingering Question: Does Cam Ward have enough weapons ??? l Short answer ...... probably not. Last year was painful for the former No. 1 pick, whose leading receiver was tight end Chig Okonkwo (56 receptions, 560 yards, 2 TD's.) To address that, Tennessee spent the No. 4 pick on receiver Carnell Tate and signed underrated slot receiver Wan’Dale Robinson ...... is that enough ??? TBD.

Projection: 5-12 l BetMGM set the Titans’ win total at 6.5, but I don’t see enough to be overly confident that Saleh and offensive coordinator Brian Daboll orchestrate a Year 1 turnaround like Mike Vrabel’s. Maybe after adding Jeremiah Smith in the 2027 draft ???

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Seems like this person is more optimistic on the Colts than most.

That's the state of the current Colts Overton window. The overall vibe is very pessimistic—like a -6 on the line graph.

So anybody who is a 0 (neutral/objective) comes across to most people as wildly optimistic. Rose-colored glasses territory even.

He’s a helluva lot more optimistic than I am.

I think this teams ceiling is 10 wins and that’s only if everything goes perfectly. I think it’s much more likely they win 6-7 games.

If everything goes perfectly, this team's ceiling is a lot higher than 10 wins.

We’ll just have to agree to disagree. And, for the record, I hope I’m wrong.

I just think Daniel Jones will come back to earth this year. Last year was such an outlier from his career up to that point. I wonder if it’s sustainable.

I view "everything goes perfectly" as each questionable situation has a 90th percentile or better outcome.

That would look something like:

- Daniel Jones misses at most 2 games and performs at the level he was performing in the first 8 games of last season.

- Alec Pierce takes on an increased target share and continues to produce at a similar YPC level with 20-30 more catches.

- Josh Downs takes on an increased target share and improves his YPC, having over 1,000 yards and at least close to 100 catches.

- Tyler Warren plays at an All-Pro level and has over 1,000 yards and close to 100 catches.

- The OL is elite across the board, with Matt Goncalves and Jalen Travis establishing themselves as top end starters.

- Laiatu Latu becomes one of the elite pass rushers in the NFL, getting 12+ sacks and being top 10 in pressures and pressure rate in the NFL.

- DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart miss no time, and Buckner plays at an All-Pro level, getting 10+ sacks or close to it.

- CJ Allen competes for defensive rookie of the year, and has a rookie statline similar to 2018 Darius Leonard.

- Sauce Gardner and Charvarius Ward missed less than 2 games combined, and both play at All-Pro level.

- Cam Bynum and A.J. Haulcy are both turnover machines and ballhawks.

- The offense and defense are both Top 5 in EPA per play.


You're telling me the ceiling on that team is 10 wins? That looks like a 13-14 win #1 seed to me.

I agree that if THAT list happened, we are a 14+ games won kind of team.

However, the chances of THAT list happening? Not very high, IMO.

We will go as DJ goes and I put his over/under on games played in good health for the 2026 season at 9.

We will see.

He said "Everything goes perfect". It was meant to be a highly improbable list. Would you not agree that those are all 90th percentile or better outcomes? Because, again, THAT is how I would define "everything goes perfect".

What's crazy is the least realistic thing on that list is the health things, because the offense and defense were both Top 5 in EPA per play before Buckner went down last year.

There is a better chance that none of these things happen than all of them happen.

Sure, but there's a much better chance that most of those things happen than none of them happening.

And we wouldn't need all of them to happen to make the playoffs, win the division, or frankly, even be the #1 seed.

First off thanks for interacting with me Chaos. We have a game tonight, lots being discussed about the team in the news but this board is dead. Mimics the excitement (low) that most of us probably feel for the season. I feel like there is a greater chance that most of those things don't pan out. However if Daniel Jones and our cornerback situation stay great and healthy we definitely can make the playoffs. That isnt enough for me. I want us to realistically have a shot to win it all. We don't have to win it all, I just want to go into a playoff with some hope to come out a winner with other than a miracle needed. It isnt our of the question but is a very low probability (10%?).

For tonights game, we need a backup QB desperately if we want to make a real run. Ill be interested in seeing who looks less shitty, AR or Leonard. Both have issues but lets hope one of them stands out. Unfortunately i have no faith in this group of talent evaluators getting it right except through blind luck.

I would say the main thing to potentially derail us is injuries. That's bad because it's up to the football gods who they bite. But it's also good in that, if they stay healthy, the roster is good enough to compete with the best teams.

Better than the alternative of a bad roster in need of turnover. What gives me optimism is the way the team competed against some of the best teams prior to catastrophe striking.

I just don't see the logic in reviewing the evidence of 7-1, including DEN, LAC, and a nailbiter with LAR and shrugging those 8 games off to instead treat the PIT game as if it was the truth and not more of an outlier. And that then leading to treating the final 7 games as inevitable - would have happened anyway.

I don't buy it at all. I think, as has been the case for years, we have some really good gears (roster) and need a central cog (competent QB) to make those gears turn.

That central cog doesn't need to be diamond-coated titanium... we don't need the second coming of Manning... it just needs to not be warped and chipped.

As the true glutton for punishment that I am, I am back for another season. I totally melted down at the end of last season, I probably owe apologies to several people but I really just want to move on and forget about last year and start a new one with a fresh outlook. My main concern this season is DJ staying healthy, if he does this team has a chance for 10+ wins, without him I don't give us much if any chance of making the playoffs....again!

Texans will win the division, the real question is can the Colts beat out the Jaguars? With a healthy DJ we have a chance, but there are scenarios where 3 teams from the South make the playoffs, but other teams have gotten better and realistically I don't see that happening.

Anyway, I am going to keep my expectations low and regardless of what happens, try not to get too emotional about changes at the top!

Richardson looks terrible

So's the new TV service. Buffering like crazy :mad:. Hoping it's fixed by the time the regular season starts, but having my doubts.

Richardson looks like he’s always looked. Which is terrible, with the added bonus of always wondering when he’s going to get hurt(he came up gimpy after that 2nd down run).

He is who he is at this point. He’s a very bad quarterback. Which is why we can’t get a 7th round pick for him.

If all that happens, I’ll give you my left nut. And that’s the healthy one.

No way that stands....even in preseason the Cheats get all the calls!

That’s infuriatingly bad. Even if he DID fumble it, he had ALREADY BROKEN THE PLANE. His arm was LITERALLY in the endzone. The moment that ball breaks the plane in his possession, that’s a touchdown.

That’s just appallingly bad.

Oh my God. Just get Richardson out of there. He is UNBELIEVABLY bad. That was a clear fumble.

They're all sloppy.

That was a perfect example of Richardson's story though. Stiff arms a defensive end off, shows burst, fumbles.

Clear fumble, but since they didn't look at the first one, they shouldn't look at this one!:D

Yours is at lease playing?

Mine is just a dead channel.

This is just embarrassing. The Patriots are absolutely dominating us. If not for penalties, they’d be up by at least 10. Everything they want to do, they’re doing with ease.

This reminds me of the Caldwell era Colts teams in the preseason. When Manning wasn’t playing, they looked like absolute dog shit.

The problem is we don’t have Peyton coming in to save the day.

This is just a bad team.

It would be so nice if they showed us something, anything, to be able to dispute this.

I listened to the Indy Star guys point out that our DB's were getting cooked during the joint sessions and I see they weren't lying, at all.

JT is so good at extending his elbows and then not actually getting off the block. Him and Latu are really good at that.

Anthony has had worse halves. The fumble was bad, and the first pass was terrible, yes.

I don't think the pick is 100% on him. He got lucky with the tipped pass to Mallory, but he got screwed on one touchdown drive and should have had two already.

Anthony did a nice job there....salvaged a pretty terrible 1st half!

Without the BS fumble, The game is 14-10.

I'm excited to watch Leonard's turn

Who's the starting O-Line, and how are they playing?

To be clear, I don't think all of that will happen, but that is what "everything goes perfectly" looks like.

It's on in the NFL channels. The Fox Indy channel is dead. Same w/ the Cincy Fox channel where the Bungles are on. Guessing the new group is switching off the local channels showing games to make sure everyone uses the NFL ones.

It's working better now, but I missed a ton of the 1st quarter and ~1/3 of the 2nd b/c of all of the buffering.

That’s the problem with AR. He’ll give you flashes like that but still be bad 80 percent of the time. It’s infuriating. You’re always just waiting for the shoe to drop.

And then he’ll get hurt.

Someone else will have to call out names. Off the top of my dome I remember Freeland and Tucker being out there.

They were good in the run game, especially in the first couple of series.

I'd argue the first half was mostly good but the mistakes are so debilitating it's impossible to trust him.

Good Lord, Leonard. That was a putrid throw.

We gotta get a legit QB 2. Richardson and Leonard are guys that lose you games.