Ballard’s draft record
 

A theme amongst Ballard’s detractors has seemed to have emerged…that he doesn’t draft well. Let’s look at that.

2018
Quenton Nelson
Shaq Leonard
Braden Smith
Zaire Franklin
Tyquan Lewis

Nelson will be in the Hall Of Fame. Leonard would have been. Braden Smith has been a bookend RT from the day he stepped onto the field. Zaire Franklin was a tackling machine and a pro bowler. Tyquan was serviceable.

2019
Rock Ya Sin
Parris Campbell
Bobby Okereke
EJ Speed

Rock is starting for the Lions. Campbell had all the talent in the world. Bobby is starting for the Giants. Speed for the hated Texans.

2020
Michael Pittman Jr
Jonathan Taylor

Pittman is a upper echelon Receiver. Taylor is the best Running Back in the league.

2021
Will Fries

2021 was slim pickings. Ballard seemed determined to find an edge guy, so he rolled the dice with Paye and Odeyingbo. A small amount of redemption came in round 7 when he found Will Fries.

2022
Alec Pierce
Jelani Woods
Bernhard Raimann
Nick Cross

If 2021 was a bad year, ‘22 was a home run. In Pierce, he found a home run hitter who has developed into one of the best receivers in the league. Jelani gets mentioned because of the immense talent short circuited by injury. Bernard is a bookend Left Tackle. Cross is a stalwart in the back end.

2023
Anthony Richardson
JuJu Brents
Josh Downs

Richardson was a roll of the dice at Quarterback. He still has time, but the sands are running out. JuJu makes the list because saying Juju makes me happy. And Downs is the consummate slot receiver.

2024
Laiatu Latu
Adonai Mitchell
Matt Goncalves
Tanor Bortoloni
Jaylon Carlies

Latu is one of PFF’s top 10 edge players, racking up 11 sacks and 61 pressures. Adonai has all pro tools wrapped up in a fool’s head. He single handedly cost us a win. Goncalves and Bortoloni are cornerstones on the line. Carlies might be an answer at Linebacker.


2025
Tyler Warren
Justin Walley
Jalen Travis
Riley Leonard

Tyler is emerging into an elite TE. Walley looks legit at Corner. Travis might be a bookend RT forbthe next decade. And Riley Leonard opened a few eyes on Sunday.

After a decade on the job, Ballard has built a roster with only two holes…DE and cover Linebacker. This year’s draft is reportedly rich at Linebacker, so given his track record at the position, I expect him to fill the spot in round 2. At Defensive End, i suspect that the Irsay girls will slice off a chunk of money and give Ballard the latitude to sign the top guy on his wish lisy at DE.

Kray- you are under no obligation to disclose this, but there is general interest about your level of compensation as Ballard's internet message board PR associate.

He has built a team with 'no holes' and no impact players. Just a bunch of average to slightly above average player. Shit the 3 best players on defense we have we didn't even evaluate and draft. Nobody outside of hard core Colt fans think any of these picks are all proish, except maybe a guard and a running back. He did nail it his first year here, been so long I almost forgot.

The thing is that I don’t care if Dave from Denver or Andy from Albuquerque or Eugene from, well, Eugene doesn’t know jack squat about the Colt’s lineup. I don’t expect anyone but Colt fans, die hard or not, to be even passingly familiar with the likes of Bernhard Raimann or Zaire Franklin. Heck, the only reason that the guy from CBS who does play by play on Sunday knows anything is because CBS has a legion of producers who do a deep dive from Monday to Wednesday.

For all of its shortcomings, if you’re looking for a non biased opinion on talent, you can’t do much better than PFF. Their take is that 14 Colts starters receive grades higher than 70. They are:

Daniel Jones 71.7
Jonathan Taylor. 78.6
Bernhard Raimann. 82.0
Quenton Nelson. 84.5
Tanot Bortoloni. 82.6
Jalen Travis. 72.2
Josh Downs. 77.1
Alec pierce. 79.3
Michael Pittman. 70.4
Laiatu Latu 84.1
DeForest Buckner 74.0
Sauce Gardner. 76.9
Charvarius Ward 77.1
Cam Bynum. 70.3

5 players
rated higher than 79.3.

The seahawks have 15.higher than 70, 5 higher than 80.
The Jags have 11 in the 70’s and 3 who crack 80.
For Houston, 7 and 3

Impact players include Daniel Jones, Jonathan Taylor, Alec Pierce, DeForest Buckner, Quenton Nelson, Sauce Gardner and Charvarius Ward. In addition, even though I know it’ll stoke great disagreement, they say Latu is a top 10 edge player.

I wouldn't include guys who had very little impact or a negative impact for the Colts as successful draft picks. This would include Campbell, Woods, Brents, Mitchell, Carlies, and Walley.

Also, some of your comments are inaccurate or lacking nuance. For example:

Rock - Part time starter for the Lions (6 games), so a backup there. He basically became a journeyman backup. So not a terrible pick, but didn't live up to where he was drafted.

Speed - Again, a part time starter (9 games for HOU). Good value for a day 3 pick, but not the stud you make him out to be. Also, think I should point out that he tied w/ Franklin for 3rd in the league in missed tackles in '24 before we let him walk.

Latu - Where are you getting that he had 11 sacks this year? I'm seeing 8.5. Which isn't bad, but doesn't live up to where he was drafted. If he keeps improving maybe he'll get there.

I'm with you in that I could care less what other football fans think. I could also care less what PFF thinks unless their opinion get you wins. To me the best and most fair evaluation of the roster is the teams record. It has zero 'opinion' in it and is 100% factual based. I am not looking for a GM in love with rating like PFF or RAS scores. I would like one looking to 'just win baby'. If we were winning with the players Ballard drafted all this would be moot. The only reason this is an issue is all these franchises we used to laugh at have multiple AFC South titles since Ballard got here and we have zero. It sucks

PFF credits him with 11. The difference is that they give full credit for half sacks, which makes sense to me. He got to the Quarterback 11 times, and that’s all that counts.

Also, at no point did I imply that Speed is a stud.

It may be fair to evaluate a team based on record, but not when Philip Rivers or Riley Leonard is lined up under Center, not when your Quarterback is playing with a broken leg. The Colts played 7 games after Jones broke his leg. They lost 5 of them by a combined 16 points.

So what I’m hearing is he just needs another year and then this a championship contending roster? If it’s not then what? One more year?

I feel like it’s about the 5th yr in a row I’ve heard that from Ballard supporters. I pray this time you guys are right.

The thing I can’t understand is why do you want such an unlucky guy as your GM? I mean the results speak for themselves. There is no opinion in the results. Straight facts. So if he’s as good as you say, then he’s obviously extremely unlucky. We aren’t talking one season here. He’s been here for almost a decade. I personally would prefer to keep the bad luck away from the team.

This is totally fair if you judge just on this year. We have 9 years wihl all sorts of reasons we are middling. However, listening to our owner I believe she sides with you on this.

Listening to Irsay-Gordon’s press conference, it seems to me that Ballard doesn’t have a long leash. She’ll spend money giving Ballard the freedom to add talent in free agency, but the money had better bring results.

Personally, I agree with her. I’ve spent the past half decade defending Ballard on the grounds that he didn’t have a Quarterback. I excuse that because finding a Quarterback is the second hardest task facing a GM…behind Edge defender.

He now has his Quarterback, and I expect him to fill the hole at DE in free agency. If he loses Buckner and Ward to free agency, he might get some slack. But everyone in the organization would have to be convinced that MAJOR progress has been made and that we are on the cusp.

He' just not a genius at drafting with an 8 win team.
Also the scouting isn't helping.

Most guys wouldn’t survive drafting a massive bust 4th overall.

On the bright side, at least we’re not Cleveland, who fired their two time coach of the year and kept their GM, who was responsible for the Deshaun Watson trade, the worst trade in NFL history.

So we got that going for us, I guess.

Imagine if you traded 3 first round picks to draft a bust 3rd overall. You'd surely be fired, right? And yet, John Lynch is still the GM of the 49ers.

If Ballard had hit on a 7th round draft pick like Purdy we wouldn't be having this conversation (and I know it was lucky but you have to draft the guy to get lucky). Apparently Lynch knew QB was essential and moved heaven and earth to try to find one. He missed on the first rounder but kept looking and found one.

Quarterbacks in San Francisco succeed because of Shanahan, not Lynch.

I think Shanahan is the best coach in the league.

Somebody has to get the guy on the roster for Shanahan to work his magic.

That was dumb luck, and you can't say Ballard hasn't continued to look for an answer at the QB position, because the 2 QBs on the roster not named Anthony Richardson were brought in in the 2025 offseason.

And I guarantee you Shanahan has more input on quarterbacks taken than Lynch does.

Why wouldn’t he?

o


Ballard also brought in Philip Rivers in 2020, who led the Colts to their one bona-fide season as a contender for an AFC championship in Ballard's 9-year tenure as the team's GM in 2020 ...... unfortunately, Rivers decided to retire immediately following that season.

He brought in Carson Wentz in 2021. Wentz had 27 TD's, 7 INT's, and a passer rating of 94.6 ...... Wentz led the team to a 9-6 record in their first 15 games before he shit the bed in the final 2 games of the season.


So yes, Ballard has been looking for a QB in his 9-year tenure as the team's GM ...... he has failed more than he has succeeded in that specific area, but he has been looking.

o

In another topic, I pointed noted that, according to Bill Parcells, the quickest way to ruin is to listen to the fans.

Number 2 has to be listening to a coach who tells you he can fix a Quarterback. Frank Reich said that he could fix Carson Wentz, then he said that he could wring a few more seasons out of Matt Ryan’s arm. Shane Steichen said that he could turn an immature veteran of a dozen college starts into Andrew Luck 2.0.

We finally have a complete Quarterback in Daniel Jones, a guy with tools and a mind to match. Injuries, however, scares the bejeepers out of me. I have no hesitation in handing Daniel the ball, but I sure as hell want to have a veteran on hand who can step in and finish.

You don't "hit" on a 7th round QB. You get a knock at the door and find out you unknowingly had a billionaire uncle who left you an inheritance. Brock Purdy is the goddamn epitome of QB being a crapshoot and fans' outcome bias. I mean, if some GMs scout QBs well and some don't... how do you pass on a franchise QB 7 times in the same draft before finally taking him?

Lynch dumped three 1st-rounders for Trey Lance who puts to shame any possible "bust" label you could hope to put on Anthony Richardson. If Purdy wasn't a winning lottery ticket, Lynch would've had torches and pitchforks out for him instead of being viewed as a pretty good GM... which he is.

My belief, is that AR was forced on Steichen by Jim Irsay and consequently convinced that he could fix AR. Being a 1st year coach, he had to tow the company line. I've noticed more pushback and assertiveness from Steichen as time has gone on.

So if I understand your position, Ballard is a genius because HE is so good at 'hitting' those middle round picks like Raimann but any other GM is just a lucky bastard. Ok let's hire a lucky bastard then. My bottom line is that Lynch has produced a winning team and Ballard hasn't. Make all the excuse you want, Ballard's your boy you are free to love on him. And as far as AR is concerned you obviously don't read my posts. I wanted AR over DJ and still do. I have zero faith in DJ ever leading this team to anything. If AR is a bust, in my opinion, it is mostly do to the Colts fucking up his development. Now he may never play again due to a freak accident, I get that.

You are correct that if Lynch hadn't gotten Purdy he might have been fired. But the reality is he did get Purdy (and had the foresight to have a coach in place that actually knew how to develop him, also part of a GMs job. Ballards initial genius move was McDaniels) and they are still playing football. It's amazing how some GMs are just so lucky. Again, wish we had one

This is a good point IMO. When we inherited the team we were so devoid of overall talent that he could pretty much just draft the best athlete available in every round and a good portion of them would see the field and make at least somewhat of an impact. Now that the roster is at an overall decent talent level he's having a tough time upgrading that.

No, you might not understand my position. You guys are so quick to jump to, "Oh, you don't want him fired? So I guess he's just Jesus Christ Incarnate. Let me know how his toes taste."

My mentioning of AR had nothing to do with your post—it was to emphasize the comparison to the Trey Lance situation. Jury is still out on AR as far as I'm concerned, but many are calling him an outright bust. If he's a bust, it still pales in comparison to Trey Lance and his exorbitant price tag. But Mr. Irrelevant made the Trey Lance situation irrelevant.


This is precisely outcome bias. John Lynch is a good GM and built a good roster. If Brock Purdy wasn't a miracle and the 49ers were in QB purgatory for a while... some people would say he's fireable and some people would say he's still a good GM—he took a swing and missed, but we still want him building the surrounding cast when QB is resolved.

Seems like you'd be in the former, I'd be in the latter.

---

As far as comparing picks like Raimann to Purdy... sure, you can say there's a stain of luck on any non-1st round draft pick who turns out to be upper echelon at his position. But this is a category error.

QB is unique. It is inherently the highest variance position in the game. 7th round QB's NEVER become starting, franchise QBs. But at the same, I think something like 60% of 1st round QBs since 2000 are busts. Less than a quarter we would say lived up and became good/great QBs and the remaining quarter we would probably call "serviceable starters" or something.

A 3rd round OL has far less variance. Mid-round OL hits are common enough that they reflect scouting skill and system fit. They are repeatable which is why you can multiple instances of Ballard revamping the OL producing a top unit.

Brock Purdy is not repeatable.

Apologize for misinterpreting what you meant. Purdy didnt just jump out of the sky a 7th round pick ready to start. He had to be developed and Lynch had the correct people there to develop him. Colts, not so much. Ballard hits on some middle round player who become good. To win consistently you need to hit on your first and second round players (players that can be difference makers), and he has been terrible at this as of late. Since the Nelson pick I cannot name one upper echelon player (all-pro etc) except maybe JT. A guard and a running back in 8 years. Not going to win much with that. It has been 9 years of mostly this mediocre shit, maybe year 10 will bring us some respite. I hope.

John lynch is, frankly, an odd hill on which to take a stand on draft acumen. Since 2020, he’s only drafted 2 pro bowlers, none in the 1st round, or the 2nd or 3rd, either.

This year, they sent 4 guys to the pro bowl.

They drafted Kittle back in 2017
Signed Juszczyk as a free agent.
Traded for McCaffrey and Trent Williams.

He also hit on Darius Leonard, a true stud at LB. However, he had to have back surgery a few years in, and it ended his effectiveness. Had he been fortunate enough to have avoided surgery, we would not be discussing Franklin's ineptitude at LB, because he would still be holding down the fort there.

How the fuck am I dying on Lynch's hill? It was a one off on Purdy and now I'm in love with the guy? Never heard of really before all of this crap discussion about Ballard I've gotten myself into. I'm not a Ballard hater. I am a Colt fan who is sick of this mediocrity and have come to the conclusion that the longer Ballard stays the longer we will be mediocre. it isn't an unreasonable view.

Sorry, but when you go from dissing Ballard’s drafting skills…which I disagree with by the way…to lauding Lynch, I make assumptions.

Glad I was wrong.

I could see that. or AR just really was doing jack shit to prepare like a starter and Steichen quickly soured on him.

the pro bowl is fucking meaningless and has been for years.

I get why people would want to keep Ballard. he is likable and does a decent job of finding guys in the draft that are good.


he doesnt find guys that are great. he has mishandled the QB spot at almost every turn. he is reluctant to fill holes through free agency. he dumped a ton of resources into the dline and the dline fucking sucks.


the bad outweighs the good imo and the results tell me I am right. if you can't get QB, oline and pass rush squared away, you shouldn't be running a team. period

Is there any actual evidence that suggests this is the case? If anything the anything the comments by Jim at the time suggest the he preferred Levis. I mean he tweated about drafting him the 2nd even though we had already drafted AR in the 1st.

And there's no doubt in my mind Ballard was all in on AR (with some very strong pushing from Morocco Brown). You don't go from looking like someone pissed in your cereal to pure adulation b/c you just found out you get to draft the player your boss is forcing on you. Also, prior to '24 Ballard drafted pretty much on traits, traits, and more traits, so pretty easy to see why he would be all in on AR.

Also, while the picture isn't as clear on Steichen, his and Ballard's comments after the draft sure make it seem like he was all in on AR as well. And circumstantially he was looking to carry over his offense from Philly with the QB running a lot (and evidenced by our pre AR injury O his rookie year). He saw AR as a bigger, faster, and stronger armed version of Hurts.

My belief on AR is that Ballard and Steichen wanted him. And Stechein soured on him because of his work habits. So you can certainly say that AR failed. However, they drafted probably the rawest QB ever and did jack shit to support him. He either needed to sit and watch and learn or he needed true veteran mentor. Not someone to compete against, someone who knew his role on the team was not to win games, but to teach AR how to be a professional QB. Those to me are the two valid ways to develop a QB who clearly isn’t ready. In typical Ballard fashion the team had no direction and did neither. He has said he doesn’t believe in veteran leadership he believes his coaches set the culture. That MAY work if you hire a hard nosed chew your ass type coach. Maybe. But it sure as fuck doesn’t work with the Reichs and Stechein analytical, Xs and Os type coaches. AR shares some blame in his failure, but the majority falls on the fucking grown men and supposed leaders that failed to provide him the structure and time he needed to succeed. AR is a symptom of the completely rotten culture Ballard has developed.

To me the evidence that Jim wanted AR is how nuts he was about him talking like AR was going to be an all time great, etc. But this was Jim Irsay talking about a Colt related subject. He was always over the top about the Colts, one reason we loved him. AR fits Ballards mode perfectly with his RAS score off the charts. Why wouldn't he love the pick? That plus he seemed genuinely happy when he learned it was Houston that jumped us to pick Anderson.

It’s hard to peg the reasons why quarterbacks fail. It’s easy to say that it was an organizational failure; that coaching staffs are somehow negligent or inept. In some cases, I’m sure that’s true. In some cases, being drafted by the New York Jets dooms you to some corner of quarterback hell.

I’m not sure, however, but that isn’t too broad a brush. Was a colts organization that turned Andrew Luck into an all pro all that much different than the one that failed Anthony Richardson?

What was it that caused the Pittsburgh Steelers to stumble so badly with Kenny Pickett? How to explain the 49ers and Trey Lance?

How do you explain the ability of organization so inept as the Cincinnati Bengals to develop Joe Burrow? Houston and Jacksonville were both considered shit shows until they lucked into Stroud and Lawrence.

I get the feeling that part of the problem is structural. Over the years, the Players Association has systematically reduced off-season workouts and contact between players and clubs. There just isn’t a lot of opportunity for coaches to shape a raw lump of potential into an elite player. That might not matter much if you’re talking about a Tom Brady or a Daniel Jones, players with an inner fire to excel and an unsurpassed capacity for work.

But, with Anthony Richardson…

o


When I first started reading your sentence, I thought that you were going to reference the Steelers cutting Johnny Unitas from the team in 1955.




https://pittsburghorbit.com/wp-conte...eg?w=200&h=100




Unitas wound up playing for the Bloomfield Rams that season, for $6 per game.




https://pittsburghorbit.com/wp-conte...-45.jpeg?w=250

o

Zack Hicks on Ballard's draft pick history

https://youtu.be/neeINZFaoJw