Quick Thoughts - Week 3
 

1. First win of the season. First win for AR, right? At least that he finished. Hopefully that's a monkey off his back so he can continue to progress.

2. It was the Bears, so pump the brakes... but they did play the Texans tough a week ago and held them to 19 points.

3. Sticking with AR... another 50% completion day because of some, frankly, just shitty passes. I think Downs dropped that early one. His good throws are difficult to catch, his bad throws are bye bye.

4. I think I said this in another thread... Our receivers are having the inverse issue this year compared to last year. Last year we couldn't get it deep, everything was tight, Pittman feasted. This year, we threaten deep, miss the easy stuff, and Pierce has been our leading receiver all three games (not that he's been a superstar, though).

5. JT looked like '21 again. Plugging away and then busted a few really crucial explosives. The second long run, not the TD, was really awesome vision. Back to back very good weeks.

6. What AR lacks in refinement, he at least makes up for in fire. The Sermon TD, AR was the first one pushing. Just before that, be blasted a DB on a short run. Then he had one of the most important plays of the game with that 13 yard run to the goal line when he smashed a guy again.

7. ^^ As cool as that is, it's scary as shit. We'll see how sore he is this week.

8. Latu is going to be good. He wins a lot and that strip sack was the play of the game.

9. Run D was solid for the most part. Putting EJ Speed on the line to establish until they can back him off.

10. Pass D was frustrating at times. In particular, the third down conversions where we'd have the guy before the sticks, but couldn't get him down. Have to tackle in this defense. Surprised to see the Bears were only 9 for 21 on third down.

11. TOP was an issue again. Better this week, 25-35. But we allow sustained drives and also don't have our own sustained drives. Double whammy.

12. I thought the Pass D was ok overall, though. Took advantage when INT's were available. Almost 100 passing yards were on the Hail Mary (too close) and that long catch by Odunze which was a great play that's hard to defend. But again, this defense only works if you tackle every time.

13. Pass rush continues to look strong. 4 sacks, 6 QB hits, and 7 TFL's. Curious to see their win rates and total pressures because there were some missed ones, too.

14. Franklin looked like himself, finally. Flying around thumping guys. Speed looked better, too.

15. OL also looks solid to me. I know some were complaining, but I don't see it. Most time people only notice the OL when they fuck up, but that's going to happen. This has been our most solid unit on the team thus far.

16. Injuries suck. Flowers and Paye, first glance, seem bad. Glad Moore didn't die.

17. Ultimately, I didn't expect AR to struggle so much with the easy stuff this season. This year is looking more and more like a defacto rookie season for him. Kind of expected, but again, thought he would be further along with some basic stuff. Once (if) that element clicks, things will look way prettier.

Mini debate in the gameday thread about moving on from him... way too early. The concerns are there for sure. Some are the same as they were pre-draft. But there's too much potential and examples like Josh Allen to bail on him.

18. Two weeks in a row I haven't been impressed with Steichen, which is surprising. He adjusted later in the game for some key plays (the PA screen to JT), but he can do a lot to help AR out.

I thought the OLine was fine.

AR was really really REALLY bad today. There’s no sugar coating it. He’s going to have to be better than that.

What happened to the RPO heavy offense from last year? Steichen seems DETERMINED to make Richardson a pocket passer and that’s not his strength.

The int in the red zone and the one on the first play of the second half were just absolute garbage. Sub par throws to say the least. The one in the end zone should have been thrown out the back of the end zone or not at all. The one in the second half was a good 15 yards to deep.

That throw was stop and say “wait, what the hell was THAT” bad.

Latu had himself a game. He was making life miserable for the Bears all day.

Nice to see Raekwon Davis make a play.

Cross had a good day.

I hope Paye and Kenny aren’t hurt to bad.

The Bears are legitimately bad. I didn’t feel like they threatened to score all day. I felt like if they did, it would be due to fuck ups by the Colts.

Anyway, a win is a win. Got a 3-0 Pittsburgh team coming in next week and they won’t beat themselves like Chicago did.

I don’t see us winning that game unless AR is a LOT better.

Good synopsis by both of you guys. We are on to the Steelers...with a win.

Listened to AR post game. He was asked about the lack of running in situations where there is clean space and yards to be had but he instead stays in the pocket and tries to complete the pass.

He gave a very diplomatic response about being focused on the great weapons he has and wanting to make sure they get their chances. That to me is 100% coach speak- and an indication he is being coached that he must be learn to play the traditional QB position before being allowed to improvise at his discretion even when that improvisation might be the difference between winning and losing right now.

He was also VERY candid about the misses. He said he just had to play better. Spoke to seeing his guys wide open and just feeling so excited to get the ball to them and he is just throwing bad balls. Said it hurts and he hates it! Said he just needs to calm down and focus on delivering the ball.

Now- here is where you have to look at this kid and think about the overall player and how hard he will probably work to do that. They asked about the Trey Sermon push and he said- and I am probably not going to be 100% with this but close:

"Well you just have to do the things to help the team. When you aren't throwing the ball well enough to help, just looking for other ways to make positive things happen for the team". That response is a player that is way ahead of his 22 year, 2nd year (more like half of one year) self.

I think Steichen is emphasizing to him how critical it is that he develop NFL level QB skills in order to fully unleash the insane potential that is AR. It's not going to be a painless process, and it MAY NOT ever work, but I don't think it will fail for a lack of willingness. If it DOES happen, we have a weapon that may be able to carry us back to prominence in the league.

Not concerned with AR yet. A couple of well respected former NFL execs, in Gil Brandt and I believe Parcells said it takes 20 games to be evaluated. Richardson has played 7 games. It took PM 11 games to show improvement, and year 2 to shine.

We had WR's open all over the field for most of the day. Richardson either missed on throws or didn't see them.

Agree about RPOs and running Richardson run a little more.

Stricken may not have been good today. But Eberflus should be fired for every tactical move he made today. He has no business being a HC in the NFL.

Latu is going to be a star and the O-Line played well. They should've had more sacks though, against a terrible Bears O-line.

Still really concerned about the secondary though.

He is easy to root for, and I think he will work as hard as anyone to get his errors fixed. It will probably take the rest of this season, and a good off-season to get it to the scary good level. I think that is why they are keeping him to the pocket passer stuff. It makes him more one-dimensional now, but as he gets comfortable with that aspect of the position, the rest will come back quickly and make him a Steve McNair/Michael Vick type of QB.

He knows

https://x.com/rickstevens63/status/1...L8ardaxv32vrGQ

Actually the one in the end zone should (or at least could) have been a TD if he had thrown to Ogletree instead of holding and then inexplicably lobbing the ball into quadruple coverage. That along w/ the int to start the 2nd half and the Downs overthrow were pee wee football level bad.

It's concerning that AR has been nothing shy of god awful 2 weeks in a row now. I know we have to be patient and stick w/ him, but man I hope he starts to improve here soon.

So far- zero accountability issues or any word salad passing the blame. That alone speaks to his dedication to get it right. If I was hearing any mealy mouthed bullshit I would be concerned. Right now, very early, and he HAS TO IMPROVE and he appears to be 100% invested in that. I can't recall who it was but I heard an interview this week with someone from another town's news source that got to meet with him during camp and they said they were very impressed with his obsession with wanting to be great. He said in the presser something to the effect of "you know how critical I am of myself" to the reporter. That is awesome!

The great news- we've been commenting about the wide open receivers he is missing- we SEE them running wide open. So we seem to have the play caller we need to set him up for some easy confidence builders, it is seeming there for the taking, which again is great vs having nobody open and having to just fire it into traffic and hoping for a miracle like so many young QB's on bad teams face.

To come out of today, regardless of the competition, was a big win. Just getting the W has to do something for the overall confidence of the squad. Hopefully this is all part of building a rock strong base.

AR was pretty terrible. i mean i get it to a degree but man he is just soooo bad at the easy stuff.


that said, i knew a large part of the success of the team this season would be weathering those mistakes. the run game and the defense were going to have to carry him. they did that today but shit that was painful to watch at times.

575 attempts / 326 completions / 56.7% / 3,739 yards / 20 TD / 28 INT

413 attempts / 204 completions / 49.3% / 3,303 yards / 17 TD / 34 INT

The first stat line is Peyton Manning's rookie year stats.

The second stat line is Anthony Richardson's projected 17 game stat line this year at the same rate as he produced in his first three games of the season.

Everyone forgets how much Colts fans were calling Peyton Manning a bust after his first season as a starter in the NFL.....

BTW:

PM = 015 rush attempts / 062 yards / 0 TD / 05 1st Downs (Rookie year)

AR = 141 rush attempts / 770 yards / 6 TD / 45 1st Downs (Projected)

How much is the threat of his running worth?

Just a little perspective.

^^^ Sure, and I am not expecting AR to be peak PM in what is essentially his rookie season. However, I do expect him to be able to hit basic throws to open receivers, not sail 10-15 yards too deep, at least more consistent than he has been.


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I can appreciate the statistical comparison. However, I think myself and others are going more by the eyeball test.

I was 13 during Manning's rookie year and being in Texas, there wasn't much Colts talk. I've since gone back and watched a bunch of his rookie year and it's a different kind of struggle for AR. Actually... it's the same struggle but there's an additional element.

Manning had the typical rookie issues: overestimating windows, overestimating arm strength, getting fooled by coverages, over aggression, forcing balls instead of living for another play, miscommunication with receivers, etc.

AR experiences all of that and will learn and improve it. The added element, though, is his basic accuracy and consistency with that accuracy. We've seen pinpoint bombs and laser throws, we know he can do it. But his inconsistency on easy stuff is something Manning didn't have.

At least from what I remember. Good thing to always remember... he's the youngest QB in the league.

Yea comparing the numbers just isn’t accurate to me, not to Peyton anyway. Put his numbers next to Cam, Lamar, or Hurts.

I definitely recall Peyton’s rookie year and fans having doubts….

His 2nd season I was a junior in high school and went downtown bought tickets off a scalper because the game was blacked out locally because it didn’t sell out.

I was fuckin pissed… it ended up being one of the best decisions I ever made. We kicked the Titans ass that day and went on to have a hell of a season getting a 1st round bye in the playoffs.

That was the last time a game has ever been blacked out locally and the Manning doubters went away after that first home game that year

So easy to put him in that athletic QB's club and say that's what he is going to be, but not entirely sure if that is going to be the case. Not quite sure where he fits yet, and I don't think the league knows either.

In the running game he is really more of a half back, sort of more Derrick Henry giant power back moreso than Lamar with his unbelievable quicks and cuts. Cam is an interesting comparison, however with Cam it seemed like he perpetually lived in that RB wanting to be a QB space save for the one MVP season.

Hurts is probably the closest comparison in that club. Though not sure Hurts has near the cannon we see out of AR. He has developed a much more refined passing game than when he first arrived but I don't perceive him to be that 65 in the air guy or the 35 yard out on a rope guy.

To me, Josh Allen is the closest comparison. And heard some interesting talk about that very thing on the drive in this morning.

They were talking about the comparisons to Allen and how bad AR has looked with his 50% completion rate and 6 Ints and there was a question if AR could mature into JA- who is now not longer looked at as the same type of running back parading as a QB, but a talented NFL QB who can use his legs to win a game if called upon. Then someone reminded them- still the youngest QB in the league and despite the low completion rate, what you did not see from even Allen this early was this crazy contrast of horrible completion rate, 35 QBR, huge # of INT's, but also leading the league in YPC! They pointed out how he is already just 6 real games in, demonstrating his ability to strike fear in opponents because he can out throw the coverage on any chosen play and his coach is giving him the green light to do it. They noted he is making these highlight reel throws- from the pocket, not on what everyone expects or perceives from the athletic QB- i.e. breaking contain and hitting WR's who have separated due to the long time to cover. They brought up the Dulin TD pass and the throw to Granson yesterday- both high caliber QB play for different reasons, they talked about his recognition and on time delivery at times looking very much like a veteran QB, which they said was ahead of almost all rookies at this stage. Then they pointed out- he WON a game where he played awful. He owned that awfulness, and he spoke to the need to improve. Overall it was a reflection on how much of an enigma his game is in comparison to any other player.

I think we will know a great deal more about where he really fits, or if he has his own club, probably games 12-14 of this season. Until then, we just have to watch this thing play out and give him space to see if he can become what he and Steichen want him to be.

I definitely agree with that….. as erratic as his play has been at times defenses are scared to death of this guy and still don’t know how to attack him.

And to keep the comparison conversation going Allen is fair but he didn’t have a Jonathan Taylor at RB or nowhere near the Oline that AR has been gifted. Right now I’d say it’s just his lack of starts, Allen had more playing time at the position. Heard Holder on the radio saying he’s making the right reads so they’re satisfied with that just gotta get him to settle down set his feet and make the throws

Can we just let Anthony be Anthony?

A fact that I find interesting about Anthony is that his Chinese Zodiac is Horse...coincidence?

Peyton actually threw 26 TDs his rookie year. And his rookie year was really a tale of 3 parts: the first 4 games where he was god awful (TD/Int was 3/11), the next 2 games where there was some marginal improvement (TD/Int 3/3), and then the light really went on in game 7 against the 9ers (where the refs robbed us of a win w/ some BS Def. PI and holding calls) and from that point on he played well enough to where most Colts fans were super excited and couldn't wait for the '99 season (TD/Int 20/14).

If AR does something similar then I think we'll all be happy with that. The concerning thing on AR for me is that he's regressed from last year. I know he only played in 2 full games last season, but last year he wasn't missing on his throws anywhere near as bad as he is now or making as bad of decisions.

I remember watching that game against the 49'rs, and I believe the league admitted the officiating errors later that week.

I would also say that the Jets game (W) and the Ravens game (L) were big turning points in the organization realizing that they had something special.

Jagoffs becoming roadkill tonight. What a fun game to watch!

The Jags getting boat raced on national television brings me an unreasonable amount of joy.

Back to drafting first every year.

He has had the same knock on him since high school and it has never gotten better. Nobody denies he has generational talent, but nobody has seemed to be able to harness it to make him a complete player. I just personally don't see it. To miss some of those wide open passes are inexcusable for any QB.

He has to be able to make those easy throws. He won’t be successful in the league if he doesn’t get better at that.

It’s really that simple.

He should just lock himself in a room with the footage of every game Josh Allen has ever played and watch his progression over and over and over to learn how to do it. He was praised for his athleticism but heavily questioned whether or not he could reign in his accuracy problems. He now flips the ball into spots with crazy precision. If AR can just get to 60-70% of that development= we are set.

You are correct. The league actually issued an apology to the Colts saying that the bad calls cost the Colts the game.

And I agree w/ you on the Jets comeback and the Balt game. From that 9ers game on our O while a little inconsistent was actually pretty good. The problem was our D started off terrible and stayed that way. If they had improved to where they were just mediocre we probably win another ~3 games that year (including the Balt. game).

Also, I forgot to mention that I was 20 and a junior in college in Peyton's rookie year, which I suppose makes me amongst the old fucks on the board.

It is, but unfortunately we all know that we're going to lose to them at least once if not both times this year.

Lawrence was never able to read a defense. That's why I said he would bust in 2021.

I had a friend refer to him as Larry. I may have to adopt that moniker for him, as he is not worthy of being called Lawrence.

I disagreed with you in the beginning about Lawrence, but the more he plays the more I see it. Once defensive coordinators figured out his nuances and weaknesses he has digressed. So far Stroud has proven me wrong, but I'll wait to fully concede until about half way through next year. I want to see steady growth and progress before I eat to much crow.

The reason I’m still positive about Richardson for the most part is he is making the correct reads out there. Yeah he makes mistakes which is to be expected. But the majority of the time he knows where to go with the ball. That’s probably the hardest thing to learn to play. And don’t forget he’s the youngest QB in the league. The consistency in throwing can be taught and fixed. Every good Qb does it. But not all of them can figure out how to read defenses and make good decisions. So people are going to scream about accuracy and how it’s important and he can’t ever do it. But there are levels to QB play, and the physical mechanics are just one part. But to me, the mental part is the hardest to get and what separates QBs and that part looks promising.

o


In my rat's ass of an opinion, what makes Peyton Manning the greatest quarterback that I ever saw play was his freakish, almost inhuman ability to read defenses and make adjustments/audibles at the line of scrimmage ...... if Manning had had those Patriots teams around him when he played, I believe that he would have made it to even more Super Bowls than Tom Brady did (Brady made it to 9 Super Bowls when he was with the Patriots.) When Brady and Manning were both still in their in their prime in 2013, the Broncos easily beat the Patriots in that year's AFC Championship game, and the same probably would have happened one year earlier in 2012 if the Broncos' defensive backs had not choked and whiffed on the 70-yard TD pass with 30 seconds left to play in the Mile High Miracle divisional playoff game in Denver.

o

Brady consistently had top ten defenses. Peyton did not. I kinda think Brady turned into Peyton at the end of his career. That defense was frustrating because they needed a good DT to solidify it. They finally got one in booger and had him one year. If they had a good DT I think it would have helped that defense so much and led to more wins.

I’ll add to that it can’t be understated the pressure attached to being a #1 pick and expectations that come along automatically as opposed to a 6th round joke with nothing to lose.

100% agree. Don't think the game has or will ever see that kind of football mind again. His ability to instantly know what was about to happen was incredible. No one has ever been as prepared as he was. You hear stories of his demands to have film prepared of just his footwork and would study it for tells to see if he was tipping the D off at any point, constantly studying his form for inconsistencies, etc... just totally in command.

I remember during his rookie year I was telling a friend that he was heading toward being the best QB in the league in the next season (promise- AND I was a Leaf proponent coming out mind you) and was heavily ridiculed- taunted because of his interception count. I told him to come back to me in a couple years and I would smear his face in it. Late in that 2nd year, as we were just romping in game after game he said he was wrong and couldn't believe what Peyton was doing to defenses with his pre-snap reads and progressions. Most impressive he said was his ability to come right back after INT's as if they never happened- which was Peyton's calling card throughout his entire career.

Roughly 2004 / 2005 we were watching football again and he gave it up and said Peyton was the best QB of all time, and he was a steadfast Marino guy. Those 03' - 07' years were the most remarkable QB play this league has ever witnessed.

For those down on AR at this point, do not lose focus on the fact that what is probably the best pure QB of all time had a game with 6 INT's when he was already 4 years in the league.

If any of you of had a chance to watch the 22 replay, man... there's a lot of good stuff happening. Like a lot. It sounds so silly, but I'm watching this and I can't help but think the only thing keeping us from lighting up the box score, are these damn routine plays.

I just audibly sigh watching it. This could've been a blowout very quickly.

Staying patient. Stuff he needs to fix at least CAN be fixed. Whereas in previous years, we kind of saw the same thing in reverse... but Minshew, Ryan, even Rivers to a lesser extent couldn't fix arm talent.

IMO that 2004 season was the most efficient QB season we will ever witness. PM's 497 pass attempts does not even rank in the top 250 seasons of most pass attempts. His 9.9% TD to attempts is bar far the highest we have seen in the modern era. PM was often pulled in the 3rd or 4th quarter of so many blowouts.

Compare this to Tom Brady's 2007, when it was all about setting the TD record. BB actually pulled him in one blowout and then put him back in. Brady had 578 attempts that year, almost 100 more than PM in 2004.

Also, I was wrong about these two. Steichen was scheming dudes open all over the place. His call that sticks out is the endzone INT, but as much of a cluster as it looked, Dulin actually had the back corner. Not a given for AR right now, but his pass was tipped. Probably a TD or incompletion if Sanborn didn't get his hand on the ball.

And the OL was better than solid. They were pretty fucking good. Our Guards in particular. Will Fries has turned out to be pretty nasty. Looks like he's learning from Nelson (including the full face black).

Also Belichick > Dungy