Crazy Offseason Plan the Colts Will Never Do That Just Might Work.
 

You read the title and clicked on the thread, so if you came in to bitch, go click on another thread. There's plenty of that going on already.

Still here? Cool, let's talk about shit that's never going to happen.

Step 1
Trade the 4th overall pick in the 2023 NFL draft to the Oakland Raiders for their 2024 1st round pick, 2024 2nd round pick, and 2025 1st round pick.

Rationale: We're going after Lamar Jackson in this scenario. We can't be forced to forfeit something we don't have. That's also half of the reason I'm not asking for their 7th pick in return. The other half of the reason for that is I probably won't get a second 1 from them for trading down three spots, but I can by targeting their future draft capital. Finally, this is a bet on Josh McDaniels doing Josh McDaniels things and continuing to blow up this franchise. I project all of the picks we're acquiring to be Top 5 in their respective rounds as a result.

Step 2
Negotiate with Lamar Jackson's camp and determine what kind of long term deal he would be willing to sign.

Rationale: For the plan to work, we need to be able to sign Lamar Jackson to a long term deal. Therefore, we need to know for what amount and contract structure Lamar would be willing to sign long term, preferably 4 years.

Step 3
Negotiate trade compensation with Eric DeCosta.

Rationale: This is where our move in Step 1 pays dividends. Sure, DeCosta could try to sit back and wait for an offer sheet to be signed, but why would we do his work for him? Furthermore, after our trade in Step 1, DeCosta is much more likely to match an offer sheet we would sign. By negotiating a trade, we can get around the 2 1st round pick requirement. I would offer something like our 2024 1st round pick and 3rd round pick and our 2025 2nd round pick. This is more compensation than any team has received for a franchise player in recent history, which is fine because Lamar Jackson is a more valuable player than any that have been tagged and traded recently.

Step 4
Sign Lamar Jackson to the pre-negotiated long term deal.

Rationale: I don't think this needs much explanation. If you do all the work listed above to get Lamar Jackson on the team, it doesn't make sense to leave him on the franchise tag and frustrated. Ideally this would be a 4 year deal, but I'd be okay with it being a 5 year deal.

At the end of this, the Colts have a franchise QB, their full complement of 2023 draft picks except the 4th overall pick, a 2024 1st round pick that is likely to be top 5 and all other 2024 draft picks except the team's own 1 and 3, and 2 1st round draft picks in 2025, including 1 that is likely to be top 5, and a full complement of 2025 draft picks other than the team's own 2. If you happen to luck out and the McDaniels dumpster fire results in the #1 overall pick, you can either select the QB everyone is calling a generational talent already or if after 1 year you believe in Lamar enough, you could flip that pick for all of the draft capital, draft Marvin Harrison Jr., and have 2 first round picks per year for the next half decade. This plan nets Lamar Jackson and a likely top 5 pick in each of the next 2 drafts, which to me sounds a lot better than draft Anthony Richardson at 4 and pray.

Thoughts?

After the past three years, I think there is zero chance Irsay would sign off on another veteran franchise QB.

Zero...
None...
Nada...

TLDR. I just came to bitch.

I just don't think the Raiders would give up that much for our pick. Good thinking out of the box though, Dam

Even one that's 26 and has won an MVP in the last 5 years? I think that, and honestly Steichen's success with Hurts last year, would turn the tide. Lamar is the starting QB most similar to Hurts in the NFL.

The upside for them would be having 2 top 10 picks this year, including a pick that would net them one of the top QBs in this class. I'll admit I'd be willing to take a slightly lesser package than that as long as it included the 2 1s, but looking at how much the Bears got for the #1 pick, and considering they wouldn't be giving up a 2023 1 at all, I thought the deal was fair.

I have a hard time imagining a world where there is a contract Ballard and the Colt write for Lamar that the Ravens do not match. So I simply find this idle speculation and not worth investing much effort into.

Yet here you are…….:eek:

The key is not signing an offer sheet. Negotiate the trade in lieu of signing the offer sheet. Signing an offer sheet is just doing DeCosta's work for him.

I worry about giving a ton of guaranteed money to a guy that hasn’t finished the last two years. I worry that a huge part of his game is his running ability and that that will not age well. I’m hearing 45-50 million a year.

Reasonable concern, that's another reason for the first trade. If you have the 2024 #1 pick and you're not sure on Lamar, draft Caleb Williams. The Colts will not get the 2024 #1 pick with Lamar, but Josh McDaniels continues to do Josh McDaniels things, and I think they will be positioned very well by the end of the offseason for the 2024 #1 pick, especially if the Colts starter at that point is Lamar Jackson instead of Gardner Minshew. There's a built in out here.

Holding out hope that the NFL as a whole doesn't follow Cleveland's shitty lead and make this the norm.

I’m all for trading for Lamar, not familiar enough with the details tho

My question is can we wait until after the draft and offer the next 2 1st rounders?

Seems naive, I don't believe the Ravens want to move on from him. Trading with them costs more and still ends up with an albatross of a contract.

You are really bad at this and boring.

Whats with all the love for Lamar Jackson all of a sudden ?? Everyone who posts on here about how inaccurate AR is, could there be a more inaccurate passer than Lamar ?? I'll take the younger, bigger, faster guy, if I have the chance, and that's not Lamar.

Why would we trade two 1's and give up $250 mil for a running back who throws the ball occasionally, and had the last two seasons end with injuries? That would be extremely retarded for any GM, let alone Ballard's tightwad approach.

He is one blown knee away from sitting in the stands next to andrew luck.

So is Watson. With a quarter billion in his pocket. Fuck that.

i don't want lamar jackson at all.

not for the price of the trade and salary

That’s every quarterback

Lamar is proven, Richardson is hope/hype

We all want a QB so bad I feel like we’re all clouding our judgment

You realize the trade can be negotiated, right? The Ravens can have Lamar sign the tender, then trade him for whatever is agreed upon. The two 1s is only if he signs an offer sheet with another team.

True, but this style of QB is more prone to it. This guy has missed the final month of each of the past two seasons.

And typically if the QB is injured beyond repair or otherwise fails to perform, you can cut him and recoup something. If Jackson gets what he wants, there's no recouping anything.

And that's just physical. If he mentally checks out, you're the same kind of fucked. Reminder: this guy healthy scratched himself from a playoff game. I don't want to have to question a guy's desire on top of everything else.

Marshall Faulk did the same thing, basically a risk/reward business decision. Irsay has shelled out over 100 mil the last 5 years for shitty under performing washed up QB play. All I’m saying is he’s proven to where Richardson is not

It’ll be interesting to see what they do because Richardsons game will have to include a lot of running so there’s risk and longevity issues there as well

Do you really think the Ravens will accept a trade for less than the cost of just signing him? That seems naive considering the haul the Texans got for a fucking rapist.

Why would he be different than any other recently franchised player?

I am not sure what point you are trying to make.

Some people think DeCosta wants to trade him. By trading away all current year first rounders (or waiting until after the draft to negotiate with Lamar, which any team could easily do), the ceiling on potential trade compensation the Ravens can receive is a 2024 1 and a 2025 1, because that's the compensation the non-exclusive tag allows. They're not going to get more than that at this point, because they've shown an unwillingness to give him 5 years fully guaranteed, meaning any team that wants him can just do that and get him. So the question is what's the price that they just agree to move on at?

I find it bizarre that nobody even seems to be talking to the guy. What is with not even kicking the tires?

Wait...isn't Andrew still traveling the world?:confused:

Before the 2023 draft, the compensation for signing Lamar is a 2023 1 and a 2024 1. After the 2023 draft, it's a 2024 1 and a 2025 1. Don't be surprised if there are negotiations with him after the draft. Also, no one wants to do the work of negotiating a contract for Eric DeCosta. If he wants to keep Lamar, he can negotiate a deal. If he doesn't, he can negotiate a trade.

I agree with you that teams don't want to do the negotiating for DeCosta, not really convinced he wants to rade him. I would imagine any trade he is going to want is close to what the Texans received for Watson and there is no way I want to see the Colts give up that much and pay the contract he will demand..

The Ravens are limited by the franchise tag itself. They don't have leverage in the situation. They risk losing Lamar for nothing in the not too distant future if they don't extend him or trade him. The Texans had Watson's rights until 2025 when they traded him, that gave them much more leverage in negotiations.

So you’re telling me we could get one of the best defensive players in the draft and then trade for Lamar?

Yes

And if they do that. They 2 #!s in 25-25 "should" be later in the draft order. In the 20's or higher. Hopefully

I am not all in on the thought of Lamar but I wouldn't be upset about it

The thing with Lamar, whether it is a trade or offer on his tag is the financial ramification's that come with the fully guaranteed contract. Jackson depending on rumors is wanting north of the fully guaranteed $230,000,000 contract signed by Deshaun Watson with the Browns. I believe the owners are trying to steer clear of these contracts, while the NFLPA are advocating for them.

I believe the owners if I understand it correctly are required to follow the NFL's funding rule which stipulates that every fully guaranteed dollar owed to a player, but not yet paid to him, must be placed in a league-run escrow account. In other words, even if a player is owed guaranteed money over the course of three, four, or five years, ownership still must place all of that money into a separate bank account.

Some owners, their family members and or shareholders/partners, rely on income from the team for their livelihoods. Others, such as the Browns, who are owned by truck stop mogul Jimmy Haslam, who’s worth an estimated $5.5 billion, can afford to squirrel away $230 million more easily than some other organizations.

Regardless of whether or not a team, such as the Colts and Jim Irsay can afford it. I believe the consensus of the owners is to avoid such contracts.

Personally, I would rather go with a rookie QB pay scale and cap implications rather than one player eventually with a $50,000,000 cap hit hindering signing of others around him.

Just my $0.02 worth :cool:

Throw in his injury history, thats a big reach. He gets hurt in year two and all that money is gone and nothing to show for it

I don't see the money as an issue. If it is then Irsay should get out of the league. This is where contracts for QBs are going. You can cry about it all you want but this is the reality. Irsay has had both Peyton and Luck as the highest paid players in the league, he gets it. Just look at the money NY gave Jones.

So you just ignore the ramifications of the guaranteed part then? Sigh.