Free agency 2023
 

A little more than a month away, and thoughts begin to turn to free agency.

I won’t bore anyone with cold, hard numbers, suffice it to say that the Colts don’t have a lot of cap space. However, as we all know, cap space is easily carved out with a bit of creative bookkeeping.

This year’s class of free agents is not believed to be brimming with elite talent. There are no game changing Receivers or dominant, pass rushing Defensive Ends. If you’re looking for it, there does seem to be help at the Tackle position…just so long as their old team doesn’t lock them down with a new contract or a franchise tag…which seems likely. After all, does anybody believe that the Chiefs will let Orlando Brown slip away?

ESPN’s list of the top 50 free agents include a handful of Linebackers, but they all play inside; and, even if a pass rushing LB was available, I wouldn’t sign him as long as Gus Bradley was running things on that side of the ball. Gus could take Lawrence Taylor, and have him taking turns staying home, setting the edge, or dropping back into zone coverage.

No, the guy I want is Isaac Seumalo, the Eagles RG. I know that the team already has a lot tied up in paying O’Linemen, but two things…the cap is getting ready to rise by a substantial amount, and we’re looking at playing a QB, the next few season, with a bargain basement rookie contract.

Andrew Luck’s experience should offer a cautionary tale about the price of putting a young QB behind a sieve of a Line. If Nelson returns to anywhere near his pre 2003 form, the days of seeng blitzes up the gap would be at an end. If Raimann continues to develop, he and Smith give us bookends at Tackle. Kelly’s a question mark at Center, and that’s reason enough to spend a 2nd or 3rd round pick on the best one we can find in the draft.

Looks like it's time to break out my favorite Ballard meme

https://bestteestore.net/wp-content/...ents-shirt.png

If I was a GM I don't care if it is a current need or not, but I would be drafting an offensive or defensive lineman within the first 3 rounds every single year. Preferably one of each. There are 9 starters to fill out the roster on those two positions and you have to constantly renew the talent with young bodies, to keep the overall costs down. We have 3 high priced veterans on the Oline, which is great in terms of their abilities (although they didn't perform great last year), but you can't have 5 of them, so have to keep evolving from year to year.

Spending money on free agents on the Oline, is an expensive way of building a line, i am ok with the depth being via free agency on sensible contracts.

I'm prepared to be disappointed in free agency. The only thing I expect is to cut Matt Ryan.

Good place to start

And Foles to leave.

Thats two positive moves

I'm trying to stay positive this off season. IDK how much success I'll have, but I'm trying...

We have little salary cap space, so I am not expecting much at all from free agency, a few mid level guys to bolster the depths, and maybe a starter at RG.

I am not so sure that we will release Foles, if we draft a QB in the 1st round, are we really going to want our only other QB on the roster to be Ehlinger for him to learn from? I guess if we release Foles (not sure of the cap hit if we did this) then we could bring in someone like Dalton or Bridgewater for their experience? But are they any different or better than Foles?

Ballard might have to change is thinking a little bit. Steichen just left an organization with a GM that takes big swings & isn’t afraid to do so.

Ballard usually tries to do what the coach wants roster wise. Otherwise why hire him?

$224.800m = 2023 NFL Salary Cap
$006.654m = 2022 Colts Cap Rollover
===========
$231.454m = 2023 Colts Cap

$216.321m = Top 51 2023 Colts Contracts
$004.181m = 2023 Dead Money
$001.500m = Spots 52 & 53 on in-season roster
$002.160m = Practice Squad 2023 salary
$003.000m = In-Season “Churn” space
===========
$227.162m = 2023 Colts Obligations

$004.292m = 2023 Colts Free Cap Space

The projected cap hit for the 2023 Colts rookie class, if we stay in the same draft spots, is expected to be just north of $10m assuming our draft picks beat out the lower tier contracts of our 2023 roster. This means that the Colts are “in the hole” by about $6m when all obligations are factored which will not happen until the actual start of the season.

Top Colts Cap Savings if Cut:

$019.750m = DeForest Buckner
$017.205m = Matt Ryan
$010.920m = Stephen Gilmore
$009.625m = Grover Stewart
$007.875m = Ryan Kelly
$007.671m = Kenny Moore
$004.303m = Jonathan Taylor

No one else delivers more than $3.0m cap relief if cut/traded so I will stop there.

The cutting of Matt Ryan is a no brainer and will allow the Colts to have about $11m for signing new or existing free agents.

DeForest Buckner could be a target for a contract restructure to lower his cap hit for the 2023 season.

Currently, the Colts have just over $100m projected available in 2024 and a staggering $275m projected in 2025. Sure, a lot of that will be eaten up by deals made this year and next but while I am not typically a fan of pushing money forward, for a talent like Buckner’s it probably makes sense.

The same could be said to a lesser extent for Stewart. He is in the last year of his current 4 year deal and could be extended with signing bonus taking up much of his salary this season to lower the cap.

My hope is that we find a veteran RG in free agency, draft a rookie OC in the 2nd or 3rd round and let Ryan Kelly walk. Of our veteran O-Linemen, I believe he has been the weakest link, has the least upside remaining and is the oldest.

Between those moves (cutting Ryan, restructuring DeFo, cutting Kelly and potentially restructuring Stewart), the Colts could conceivably free up an additional $25-35m in 2023 cap space depending on how aggressive the restructures are. Plenty of space to sign and re-sign whom they want.

Colts 2023 Unrestricted Free Agents of Note:

DE Yannick Ngakoue
LB Bobby Okereke
WR Parris Campbell

LB E.J. Speed
PK Chase McLaughlin
P Matt Haack
FS Rodney McLeod
DE Tyquan Lewis

I put a space between the top three and bottom five because I think the top three can demand starter level money (low level starter for Campbell but still more than Just Another Guy pay) and the bottom five cannot (or are in a low paid position like kicker/punter).

I think the big decision point is linebacker. Both Okereke and Franklin have shown that they can make the defense run well. Are they as good as Leonard? Nope. But are they nearly as good at a lower price tag? That is the big question. I think we have three linebackers whom have shown the ability to play at starter level ability….and receive starter level money….but only play two of them on most downs. Franklin comes up for contract next season.

I could see Leonard being traded as part of a trade package if the Colts want to trade up to #1 for the QB of their choice. Eberflus loves him and Chicago has a tradition of great LB play. I could see Leonard being dangled out there as trade bait for more picks. And…I could see the Colts allowing either Okereke or Franklin (next season) to sign somewhere else and retaining Leonard. But I will be surprised if the Colts end up paying all three of them.

Bottom line, the Colts have the freedom to pretty much re-sign and sign whom they want, within reason, for the 2023 season. They have tons of free cap space going forward and will be playing with a rookie QB for the next five seasons, hopefully. Ballard has freedom, let’s see what he does with it.

That’s a pretty simplified explanation. You can’t get me to believe Reich WANTED what was done at WR, DE, or LT over the last few years. Yes the GM should prioritize the types of players the coaching staff prefers. But no coach wants the slow roll method of “wait until I can eventually draft a guy” that Ballard employs. That’s simply BS.

Somebody please explain to me how Matt Pryor started the first 9 games of the season between LT and RG?

Pryor was equally bad at both spots and did not get benched until Reich got fired and Saturday was hired. In Pryor's last game against NE, I believe that he single handedly gave up all 3 of the sacks by Judon, because he couldn't pick up the stunts to the inside.

I know many on here will point out how that is Ballard's fault. If so, then Reich was either just a puppet when it came to game day roster decisions or he was continuing with his mantra that even terrible players can play winning football.

At a minimum Reich had a choice to start Pryor, Raimann or Kelly at LT. He had a choice between Pinter, Pryor and Fries at RG.

So, did he or did he not make those choices?

I have not heard anything that Ballard tells the HC who to play, so I am assuming it was Riech's call. If it wasn't I suspect Ballard would also be gone.

It was most certainly Reich’s call who to start - out of the available options. The issue is the quality of the available options. The team was rotating Raimann in at LT from the very first game. Teams don’t rotate tackles. That tells me they knew the position was an issue and that Raimann wasn’t ready. And in fact his first start against Denver was a disaster. No matter what the team did early on the OL was going to be a fucking disaster. I’ve pointed out for awhile it is part of the reason the team always has slow starts. The coaching staff is required to juggle between bottom level vets and raw, unready rookies. Look at DE previously- not a single fucking player available to the coaching staff that had double digit sacks for their careers! Surprised pass rush was an issue that year? Now it seems like a no brainer that Raimann should have started day one even though he obviously wasn’t ready. And not surprisingly ever single thing I have seen suggests the team needs an upgrade at RG. Why would that be? Because the options last year sucked that’s why. That’s on Ballard.

Ok, what did Reich want to do that Ballard didn’t do?

You know damn well the minute a coach says the team sucks because the GM hasn’t solved QB, or LT, or WR, or DE he’s fired. It’s interesting to discover Ballard has no philosophy of his own - the build completely through the draft mantra was all Reich right?

Ballard is fucking Teflon, now he works for the fucking coach, and makes no decisions. Unfucking real.

That wasn't his question.

No his question is one that you know is impossible to answer. Coaches don’t complain about the moves GMs make. Period. And you both fucking know it. The insinuation is that the Reich wanted the bad options he was given at LT to start the season. A rookie who only played the position for two years in college and a journeyman guard. All I can say is if Reich WANTED the obvious holes left on the roster every year, then yes he deserved to be fired. But that means Ballard is nothing but a puppet and people need to quit giving him credit for the good on the roster, because that would also be all Reich. Right?

I’m curious WTF you guys think a GM does. If he just follows the coaches orders then why is the position so important?

True, it is impossible. But you have no problem reading Chris Ballard's mind just like the anti-Reich guys have no problem reading his.

I'll speak for myself and say there is no insinuation that Reich wanted what they ended up with. The only people giving takes like the ones in bold above are fervent anti-Reich guys or anti-Ballard guys. I personally believe they came to the decision together and it just didn't work.

Both parties seem to have a real problem accepting the fact that the HC and GM collaborate on these decisions. One guy claims, "Frank Reich said fuck you to Chris Ballard" and the next guy claims, "Chris Ballard said fuck you to Frank Reich."

You can believe that if you want, but there's no evidence for it.

There is plenty of evidence that Ballard has a team building philosophy - we’ve heard him share it consistently. And the team has largely been built that way. LT last year was handled 100% consistently with that philosophy and with what we’ve seen at other positions - a low level place holder on a minor contract and then a rookie that’s expected to take over. Yet it is repeatedly painted as if that was Reich’s choice. If it was, then yes he deserved to be fired. However in is consistent with what we’ve seen from Ballard and his stated building method.

Yes it is and should be a collaborative effort between coach and GM. Traits and skills at certain positions should largely be dictated by what the coaches want. Straight lining contracts and avoiding free agency is not. And passing off the frustration of Ballard’s slow roll on Reich as Chrome is doing is completely disingenuous.

Hasn't Ballard always said that you win up front with the O-Line and D-Line?

Yes. And he’s spent a significant amount of resources on both lines. The OL was the most expensive in the league. But he has also stated that you build through the draft and has repeatedly provided little real competition for his draft picks that are made to fill an immediate hole. Look at DE 2 years ago. Cleared out all the experienced vets and handed it to his draft picks - whether they deserved it or not.

I mostly like Ballard’s talent evaluation, but I dislike his team building / roster management.

Ultimately I don’t want to go down this road again- it’s well established my thoughts on Ballard. However, Chrome’s initial post insinuates Ballard’s frustrating roster building was driven by Reich. I strongly disagree. He’s also indicated Ballard hasn’t pushed because QB hasn’t been settled. I disagree with the philosophy but think that is a little more plausible. We’ll find out.

I don’t get the weird obsessions with Ballard. Guy isn’t perfect but he does a good job drafting and finding talent. He’s a lot better than Grigson who didn’t seem to warrant this kind of vehemence.

This stuff has a way of leaking out through other channels. So wtf did Ballard do that Reich didn’t want? He got him Rivers, he got him Wentz. It hasn’t been a lack of trying to fix QB. Rivers worked for a year. It’s only been a couple years. He filled LT in the second year of needing one. We have some promising young DEs.

Its easy to sit on the internet and use hindsight as a crystal ball

Ballard has built the team exactly how he said he would. When I pointed out (several years ago) that in the modern NFL it is needlessly slow I was told I was nuts. Look back at the history and you certainly can’t say I was wrong. The Eagles won a SB, completely rebuilt the team (including changing QBs) and just played in another in the time that Ballard has done what? Slowly filled holes.

Fuck man I hope you are right that all he did was what Reich wanted. If true then I expect a completely different GM. But I don’t think you even really believe that. The team has been built by Ballard’s mold. I’m not sure how anyone can disagree. And I don’t even really knock the guy for QB. I knock him for never filling out the roster when he acquired the possible QB.

BS I’m tired of hearing the hindsight argument on any criticism of Ballard. I’ve consistently criticized Ballard’s stated method since his second off season. That’s not hindsight. And I pretty much never criticize him for who he has drafted or who he signed at QB. Everyone is going to miss on players. It’s constantly wasting season after season on development that pisses me off. In 6 years he still hasn’t had a season where he pushed to win. Not fucking once.

With Pierce, Campbell, and Pittman, Ballard has assembled a very nice group of Receivers. The problem was an Offensive Line that couldn’t provide time for routes to develop and a Quarterback whose best years were years ago.

As far as LT is concerned, Ballards initial move, to sign an all pro talent who was coming off a non career threatening injury, was sound. When Fisher didn’t work out, he drafted Raimann and signed Pryor as a stopgap. Judging by the skills Pryor demonstrated as a backup, it wasn’t unreasonable to think he’d be, at least, competent. He wasn’t, Raimann took over, and was playing reasonably well by week 18. In ways, his progress mirrored that of the Giant’s Andrew Thomas.

Surely, it’s dawned on you that the only reason that Ballard signed Ryan was because Reich “watched ever throw by Ryan in 2021,” and didn’t see any decline?

The problem that Ballard, or any GM, has is that it’s almost impossible to find a bookend LT in free agency. Teams just don’t let those guys walk. He probably should have taken Darrisaw in the 1st round of 2031, but Darrisaw fell to the bottom third of the draft based on doubts about his dedication and desire.

Finally someone who's not looking through a narrow lens.

I’m not sure what this means. I’ll state again - I haven’t really criticized Ballard for his decisions at QB. The team could have been competitive with Ryan and a top tier OL. I felt they should have drafted one earlier, but I understand going the vet route. What I don’t understand is going the vet route (especially with Rivers and Ryan) without pushing in on the rest of the roster. To me that’s fucking stupid and a waste.

There is little question that Ballard will EVENTUALLY fill a hole - when he gets around to drafting enough people.

You guys can continue to defend every move he makes. In 6 years Ballard is 45-52-1. His teams have made the playoffs twice, winning a single playoff game. And he has never won a bad AFC South division. But keep telling me how great a GM he is. So good he can’t even be questioned.

When are we hoping for that elusive second playoff win? Year 8? 9 maybe? Maybe a division title by year 10? I’m serious, please someone give me some fucking expectations. Because in year fucking two when I said his methods would lead to mediocrity all of the same people said I was nuts and defended the methods. Here we are drafting 4th after year 6 and you guys are saying the same shit. Please one of you give me some god damn expectations of when Ballard runs out of excuses and is expected to win. After 6 years this is 100% his team. Well, unless you believe Reich was calling all the shots I guess.

Bc the Eagles got lucky and found a QB that no one, not even them, thought would be anything better than a Taysom Hill type. They also build through the lines and spend a lot of capital on them. They have a stacked team. They actually have a very similar build theory to the Colts. Probably why they liked Steichen bc he comes from that theory. I think Reich liked it. Lots of teams have been crap during this period and have stayed crap. Broncos gave their left nut for a short QB who bombed spectacularly.

The past 2 out of 3 drafts the top pick has been a WR. The last 3 out of 4 they have used high picks on receivers. The team hasn’t been a disaster. They’ve been competitive and have battled for the division several times with no QB. Usually when you have no QB you’re the Texans. Even this year they could have easily had better record with some luck, likely would have if they hadn’t fired Reich. But Irsay wanted to break the cycle and now they are finally in position for a young QB.

No that is not how I think of Reich. I think of him as passive and letting others call the shots.

Wtf are you talking about? People criticize him all the time. Every time I turn on the radio the 1070 guys are picking apart every single decision with hindsight. But they just do it bc they think he is snobby or some other personal bullshit they have with him. As if Polian wasn’t a flaming asshole. Grigson was a prick too, which hurts when you suck at your job as well.

A weird fanatical contingent on Twitter wants him fired and does nothing but talk about him even when the subject is something else. So much so I almost suspect they are hired trolls. The guy gets a little too much criticism lately imo bc not everything he does is bad. This is mostly a reversal from a few years ago when what you said above could be true, but not now. The guy gets a lot of flack.

As rm pointed out it's impossible to answer this, but I'd be willing to bet that Reich would have much rather have had Fisher back at LT than that complete turd Pryor. The OL would have been better from the start and barring injury Raimann would have been given time to develop rather than be thrown to the wolves way too early.

As he should. He's the one who put together that dumpster fire shit storm of a team we had to watch this year.