Complete rebuild?
 

Starting from scratch in 2023 if we go that route, what is the base we build from? I'll go first:

QB: None of the current hacks. On our trajectory we are certainly going to end up with Levis or Richardson. Who for a backup? Free agent, late round pick?

OL: Raimann, Smith and Q. I am leaning more to Q being bad by trying to cover for some scrubs. Although he has been flat ran over by 2nd. tier players, but we know what he is capable of. Draft a RG and center? Or draft one and fill other through free agency? Its for certain Kelly has just went off the chart bad.

RB: Taylor is a lock, Jackson? Moss? Draft? Free agent?

WR: Pierce, MPJ are certainly staying. Dulin? Campbell? None of the rest of the room seems like much. Of course it could be skewed by how bad the o-line and QB play has been.

Tight end: Woods, Granson, Cox? We go with 3?

Defense:

LB: Franklin, Okereke, Leonard, Speed. Convert Franklin, or trade Leonard? Keep Leonard, sign and trade Franklin? Either way our LB room seems fine and all are young still.

CB: Rogers, Brown, Flowers. Facyson, Moore, Gilmore. I know Gilmore is under contract for one more, but let him go and latch on to a team who is on the verge. Moore can leave, Facyson can follow him. Flowers has been used on special teams, but his college film is not bad. Will he ever be NFL caliber corner? Who knows, but he has the tangibles. Brown has looked lost at times, but his ceiling seems like a potential CB opposite of Rogers. Round out with draft or free agency?

Safety: Blackmon, Cross and Thomas seems like a decent core with lots of potential. McLeod is to old to be a part moving forward.

DE: Banogu, Kareem, Odenigbo, Ngakoue, Odeyingbo, Paye.
Paye definitely has earned a spot this year. Ngakoue has not been overwhelming this season, but has been ok and worth another shot. Odeyingbo finally arrived? Not sure, but this group as a whole has been very pedestrian. We have to have a more consistent pass rush or we are doomed as a defense.

DT: Williams, Stewart, Johnson, Cowart, Buckner.
Buckner and Stewart are great building blocks. They are still young enough and are beast to deal with. However, is this a 3 year build, 4 year build or we plugging in pieces and still trying?

If McLaughlin can tighten up his intermediate kicks dude has definitely earned his spot as our PK. Sanchez will be back and solve the punting issues.
Rhodes as long snapper is solid.

Lets hear it, who do we cut, keep, trade or move on from.

Step 1
Fire Ballard.

If you want a complete rebuild then fire Ballard. I don't so I am leaning towards him staying.

We don't need a complete rebuild.

Ryan, Kelly and Moore have to go. I'm leaning toward MOC as well. He's slow his blocking has declined and when he's in the game the opponent loads the box in most cases.

Draft 2 QB's. One in the 1st rd and another in a later rd. Maybe O'Connell, Rattler, Nix or McKee.

Draft an OL early and snatch a quality OL in free agency.

Find a true difference maker at WR.

Frankly I want all the starters back on defense. Bradley as well. I'm not depending on Cross making the jump until he makes the jump.

I'm done watching this year. I'll play Soda's picks but I'm done. Better things to do. Colts suck

I'll watch for the same reason I rubber neck a car wreck!

Don't think we need a rebuild. Need a QB to bring it together. Complete rebuilds take time, bad seasons, and high draft picks to get your foundation.

I just turned off RedZone. I don't care about NFL results anymore. Bizarre feeling to me. I just don't care.

I'm only watching pulling for some teams to win and move our ass up in the draft. Otherwise any team named the Pats, Titans, and Cowboys I'm pulling for to lose. That's all I got. But I do understand your feeling, it's depressing.

Did you see the way the Cheats lost today? It was hilarious!

They don't need a complete rebuild. They have good pieces.

Unfortunately they need upgrades at really critical positions. Still, a better QB and LT (yeah, I know, might as well wish for an unlimited supply of coke and hookers) and this team could turn around real quick.

In my opinion, we are far from needing a complete rebuild.

I think a top quality coach, could have done wonders with the current roster.

Every team has weaknesses, and a good coach would make sure that we try to cover up our own problems as much as possible. Has Matt Ryan played great, of course he hasn't. Is he serviceable as an NFL QB, i think that is still a definite yes. But not if you have the Oline that we have had this year with pass protection. You have to realise, that he is a statue, and you might need to simplify the offense and have a quick short timing based offensive scheme, so that the ball is out of his hands quickly, much like Brady has had most of his career. I don't want to be limited in this way next year, so i do agree we need a new QB, and interior OL upgrades.

The defense has generally been really good throughout the year. Happy enough with the overall performances, they have been really hindered, by the offenses ineptitude for most of the season. Even the Minny game, was in my opinion, mainly down to the offense, and not the defense.

Players i am happy to retain for 2023
QB - Ehlinger
RB - Taylor, Jackson, Moss
TE - Alie-Cox, Granson, Woods, Ogletree
WR - Pittman, Campbell, Pierce, Dulin, Strahan
T - Smith, Raimann, O'Donnell
G - Nelson, Fries
C - Kelly, Pinter

So that's a total of 20 guys. With me wanting a new starting QB, starting RG, swing tackle, mid round RB.

DE - Paye, Ngakoue, Odeyingbo, Lewis
DT - Buckner, Stewart, Cowart, Johnson, Brooks
LB - Leonard, Okereke, Franklin, Speed, Domann
CB - Gilmore, Rodgers, Moore, Flowers
S - Blackmon, Thomas, McCleod, Cross

A total of 22 guys, with the entirety of our starters coming back. I would like another pass rusher and a corner.

McLaughlin, Sanchez, Rhodes

That's 3 guys returning, hopefully with no issues for Rigoberto. Chase has at least for now proven he deserves another chance next year.

All in all, i have a total of 45 guys returning, who i wouldn't be unhappy if they made the opening day roster for 2023.

I have said i want upgrades at 6 positions, which in my mind is a possibility.
In the draft
1 - QB
2 - RG
3 - T
3- DE
4 - RB
5- CB

Double up on the offensive line, by picking up a free agent G and T. And then we need to find an upgrade to replace our depth at CB in free agency as well.

We need to seriously upgrade at QB, and on the offensive line. Do that and i think we have enough talent at RB, WR and TE, to make a major leap and be competitive. It might take another year, for the rookie QB to settle in and then maybe in 2024, we can think about adding a stud WR to the mix. But i actually quite like Pittman, Campbell and Pierce. Think if we have enough time to have a well rounded passing game, that they are all in a position to flourish, with deeper routes. I think we also need to be using the TE's a LOT more than we have. I would like to see the targets to TE's increase by 50 or even 100%. As a team we have only had a total of 66 receptions for 726 yards, with 5 TD's. With the offensive struggles we have had, you would have thought we would have tried to utilise the TE's way more in the short to intermediate passing game. The RB's have had 84 receptions for a meagre 490 yards.

I loved it, and there were a couple of other teams that did mini Colts collapses. Brady's bucs and the cowboys

If I am being honest...we will have to make a number of key acquisitions prior to the draft if we are going to even come close to retaining any of our own free agents let alone attracting any decent ones to Indy after this Dumpster fire.
Start with the coach- get that one right and we may be able to move forward maintaining our talent- otherwise nobody will come here unless we vastly overpay which, as we know, Ballard simply will not do.

thats dumb

do we pay ngakoue? i sure as fuck wouldn't


good post though

Depends on what he wants. If he is sick of playing for a new team every year and is willing to take 5-7 million per year then sure?

Doubt it. He could get 10 per year from a better team (one that has a coach for example), in a warmer city, with the potential to pay less taxes.

I am certain that every single one of our upcoming FA's run, and run fast. It sucks. Like I said, overplay or don't play this year as it pertains to free agency.

Only the immediate hiring of Jim Harbaugh or Sean Payton will change that.

Having said that, we may be active post draft if we bring in a nice prospect at QB.

I'm kind of meh on Ngakoue.

I agree, he hasn't exactly set the world alight, but he hasn't been terrible either. Happy to sign him for another year, if the money is right. I don't think i would want to sign him to a multi year deal on big money though. Can only see that ending up being a bad contract in future years.

I also think we have something with Paye and Dayodingbo, worth developing, and giving full playing time to both.

I think Banogu has finally proven he doesn't fit any scheme with the Colts, and don't see any way he will be back.

thats because he sucks

Meanwhile he's got 9.5 sacks so he keeps that dumb streak alive. He'll probably end up with 12 which is our best number since Houston got 11 in '18 ( I think). And I think Walden had 11 one year. Only double digit seasons since Mathis and none felt impressive.

Shows how the sack total can mislead. Reminds me of how Freeney never had the sack totals of some other guys around the league, but that didn't represent the monster he was for the opponent. Arguably the best pass rusher of the 2000's.

Pressures, hurries and hits all count toward a disruptive pass rush, and Freeney had a lot more of those than any of our recent double digit sack guys. He was a legit threat on every single snap, whereas these other guys seem to just get 1 a game, most (but not all) games, but are otherwise quiet.

Freeney was certainly not a threat if the other team was calling a run play. Mathis either.

They were most of the reason we used to get gashed so hard against the run. How many times would they take an outsize spin/swim loop and completely pass rush themselves out of the play? I can remember a lot

Having said that, both completely one dimension beasts at what they were good at.

For Yannick, he is not nearly a good enough pass rusher/pressure specialist to warrant not contributing dick all to the run. That is why he should be earning half of what the top rushers get, because he's not even that good at what he's supposedly good at.

QB: None of the current hacks. On our trajectory we are certainly going to end up with Levis or Richardson. Who for a backup? Free agent, late round pick?

This is currently a must of course. I just can’t get a read on the college QBs, probably because I don’t watch enough of it. I almost bet that Jacoby Brissett might be available as a backup next year, which would be an interesting twist.

OL: Raimann, Smith and Q. I am leaning more to Q being bad by trying to cover for some scrubs. Although he has been flat ran over by 2nd. tier players, but we know what he is capable of. Draft a RG and center? Or draft one and fill other through free agency? Its for certain Kelly has just went off the chart bad.

This o-line has been a mystery that I can only hope is solved by new position coaches. But yea, keep those 3, find new C and RG.

RB: Taylor is a lock, Jackson? Moss? Draft? Free agent?

Low priority. This group is fine, and I even liked some of the guys we had in preseason and didn’t keep. And I’m sure there will be some capable enough depth guys in the mid-tier FA market.

WR: Pierce, MPJ are certainly staying. Dulin? Campbell? None of the rest of the room seems like much. Of course it could be skewed by how bad the o-line and QB play has been.

I’ve got a hypothesis that this is the new impact position. The more I look around the league, the more it seems that star WRs are largely responsible for making their teams winners. If I wasn’t lazy I’d do some research and map out recent WR acquisitions and what its done for their respective teams. But look at AJ Brown and what losing him did to the Titans and for the Eagles. Or what losing Hopkins did to Houston and for Arizona. Etc. I’m fine with the top 4 we have, but only with a new #1 ahead of all of them.

Tight end: Woods, Granson, Cox? We go with 3?

Keep in mind we have Ogletree on IR and he showed some real promise. I wouldn’t be against a mid-round pick here though.

Defense:

LB: Franklin, Okereke, Leonard, Speed. Convert Franklin, or trade Leonard? Keep Leonard, sign and trade Franklin? Either way our LB room seems fine and all are young still.

This is one reason why I had argued that a package trade that included Hines, Moore and Leonard would have been a nice way to move up in the draft. We have a glut of quality LBs. Even with that, we don’t seem to force turnovers without Leonard, so I’m now hoping he can come back. We play a lot of nickel though, and really I’m not sure that’s a great idea.

CB: Rogers, Brown, Flowers. Facyson, Moore, Gilmore. I know Gilmore is under contract for one more, but let him go and latch on to a team who is on the verge. Moore can leave, Facyson can follow him. Flowers has been used on special teams, but his college film is not bad. Will he ever be NFL caliber corner? Who knows, but he has the tangibles. Brown has looked lost at times, but his ceiling seems like a potential CB opposite of Rogers. Round out with draft or free agency?

If we can keep Gilmore 1 more year its fine with me, dude really is a great player. But a 2nd round pick here would be nice.

Safety: Blackmon, Cross and Thomas seems like a decent core with lots of potential. McLeod is to old to be a part moving forward.

Agree, and another mid-tier FA would probably work out at this position.

DE: Banogu, Kareem, Odenigbo, Ngakoue, Odeyingbo, Paye.
Paye definitely has earned a spot this year. Ngakoue has not been overwhelming this season, but has been ok and worth another shot. Odeyingbo finally arrived? Not sure, but this group as a whole has been very pedestrian. We have to have a more consistent pass rush or we are doomed as a defense.

We definitely need a better pass rush. Banogu is gone, he’s done nothing. Odenigbo just got waived.

DT: Williams, Stewart, Johnson, Cowart, Buckner.
Buckner and Stewart are great building blocks. They are still young enough and are beast to deal with. However, is this a 3 year build, 4 year build or we plugging in pieces and still trying?

It’s a really good group but you can’t have too much depth here. I’m not thinking we need a rebuild, we just need the right coaches.

If McLaughlin can tighten up his intermediate kicks dude has definitely earned his spot as our PK. Sanchez will be back and solve the punting issues.
Rhodes as long snapper is solid.

Yep, this all seems fine. I hope Sanchez will be able to come back to form.

If Ngakoue isn't brought back then I would like to at least kick the tires on bringing Tyquan Lewis back.

Is it like a prerequisite that in order to play DE for the Colts you have to have the most African sounding name ever?
Ironically, the dude with the least African sounding name is the guy who was literally born in Africa, Paye.
The last few games I am going to be looking to see if Dayo can continue to take a leap forward. He has been coming on a bit, and his progress will be important for our team moving forward given the draft capital we used to get him off an injury. He needed to get through this season without a major injury.

Things that I think:

1. I agree with the above statement that only the hiring of Jim Harbaugh or Sean Peyton as the next Colts Head Coach will allow us to sign quality free agents in the next year or three. I am unsure if there is going to be an exodus of quality free agents from our team. Are Okereke, Speed, Pittman and Taylor going to choose to not re-sign with us if we offer a fair contract rate with the promise/reality of a rookie QB?

2. I am not convinced that a total rebuild is required. This team, I believe, would have won 8-10 games at this point with a franchise QB of average to above average starting ability. I think that one change would have made all the difference to this 2022 roster. That said, I think we are heading towards at least a mini-rebuild based on item #4. NOTE: A total rebuild is one in which you try to trade almost any veteran player not on a rookie contract for draft picks. I don’t think we are there.

3. There is NO WAY Jim Irsay is going to allow the signing of another veteran QB to try and compete with the Colts. After three strikes (Rivers only being a 1-year rental, Wentz and now Ryan), that line of attack is, I believe, OUT. I think there is zero chance we do not draft a 1st round rookie QB in either the 2022 or 2023 draft.

4. Rookie QBs are AT LEAST a two-year project until they reach franchise QB level of play but more likely a three-year project (if they ever reach it). So, the 2023 season is a loss for sure even with a rookie QB. 2024 might be as well but the Colts really need to be targeting 2025 as the start of (hopefully) their next drive towards contention.

5. Players on the 2023 Colts roster who are making “big” bucks over $5m cap hit:

QB Matt Ryan, 37 years old, signed through 2023 season = $35.205m
LB Shaquille Leonard, 27 years old, signed through 2026 season = $20.210m
DT DeForest Buckner, 28 years old, signed through 2024 season = $19.750m
OT Braden Smith, 26 years old, signed through 2025 season = $19.000m
OC Ryan Kelly, 29 years old, signed through 2024 season = $12.375m
OG Quenton Nelson, 26 years old, signed through 2026 season = $12.200m
CB Stephen Gilmore, 32 years old, signed through 2023 season = $11.980m
NT Grover Stewart, 29 years old, signed through 2023 season = $10.625m
CB Kenny Moore, 27 years old, signed through 2023 season = $7.545m
TE Mo Allie-Cox, 29 years old, signed through 2024 season = $5.310m

Cutting Ryan is a must do (saving $17.205m from the 2023 salary cap). He cannot be on the roster next year. End of story.

Gilmore, Stewart and Moore only have one year left on their contracts. I am fine with letting them play out their last year and then let our new management decide if they are going to attempt to re-sign 30-year-old Grover Stewart or 28-year-old Kenny Moore or let them walk.

Buckner and Allie-Cox both have two years left on their contract. Both are productive enough (and low priced enough in Cox place) that I would be fine with letting them ride out their time and let management make decisions on them following the 2024 season. That said, if a contender came to us with a trade offer for Buckner, I would entertain it. He deserves to have a shot at a ring.

I think you must decide on Offensive Line. I don’t believe you can be paying three guys that much and get so little production. Of the three, I think you cut Kelly (for a $7.875m cap savings) because he is older, closer to the end of his contract and his play has slipped more and draft a young OC to “grow up” with your new franchise QB.

I think you also must decide on Shaquille Leonard. He is the only player on our roster, in my opinion, who has a TON of trade value even coming off an injury and is a top LB when healthy. However, E.J. Speed has shown that he can replace a good portion of Leonard’s production at a fraction of his price tag. If you can get good trade value out of Leonard, I think this is the time to do so.

5. 2023 UFAs of note are: DE Yannick Ngakoue, WR Ashton Dulin, WR Parris Campbell, P Matt Haack, PK Chase McLaughlin, LB Bobby Okereke, LB E.J. Speed and CB Brandon Facyson. Of the list,

I think you re-sign both Haack and McLaughlin to veteran rate contracts. Kickers don’t cost very much, and both have performed well this season. If the Colts want to go with Sanchez instead, er, whatever.

Signing Okereke is the only “must do” on my list with Speed rising to that category if you end up trading Leonard. Both will get paid well but not as well as Leonard as they don’t have the stats.

After 4 seasons in the NFL:
Speed……. 58 games / 06 games started / 096 tackles / 07 TFL / 01 sacks / 0 INTs / 02 FF
Okereke…. 61 games / 54 games started / 389 tackles / 13 TFL / 02 sacks / 3 INTs / 03 FF
Leonard….58 games / 58 games started / 549 tackles / 30 TFL / 15 sacks / 11 INTs / 17 FF

I think you offer whatever the GM decides is a “fair” price to Ngakoue, Dulin and Campbell and if they sign, great and if they do not, that is also fine. I don’t think any of them will be “core” pieces moving forward but they all bring some value to the roster.

6. Colts 2023 draft picks: 1st, 2nd, 3rd (WAS), 4th, 5th, 6th (BUF), 7th (TB), 7th. I think that QB must be the 1st round pick if the guy they want is there. If he is not there, then BPA. At least one of the 2nd or 3rd round picks must be used on Offensive Center in my scenario. All things being equal, I would probably use both the other 2nd/3rd/4th round picks on Cornerback as your CB room must get younger and better. Gilmore will still be the #1 next season with Rodgers as the #2 and Moore as the slot but you need to start building behind them to replace them in 2024.

7. My priority for free agency in 2023 then is:
A. Starting right OG
B. Offensive Line depth
C. General depth across the entire roster

8. Save the cap for re-signing our own young pieces I would consider “core,” (Okereke and Speed in 2023, Pittman, Taylor, Blackmon, Issiah Rodgers in 2024) and then making, perhaps, big free agent acquisitions in 2025 to then go with a, hopefully, maturing young QB to start the next contender drive for the Indianapolis Colts.

9. With only the cutting of Ryan and Kelly, Colts would have around $50m to re-sign our own free agents or sign new guys in 2023. With only the need to re-sign a LB or two and an OG, I could see some of that cap amount being used to re-sign Pittman or Taylor “early.”

In 2024, we will have somewhere between $130 – 150m free cap space (minus the signings of Okereke, Speed, Pittman or Taylor) and in 2025, we have a projected $180-200m free minus the signing of guys.

The only “big” contracts we have averaging over $15m a year are: Ryan (soon to be cut), Buckner (next 2 years), Nelson (26-year-old core player), Leonard (27-year-old core player or trade bait) and Braden Smith (26-year-old core player). Roster management is looking good.

So, lots of thoughts thrown in there but I think we should pretty much “stay the course” with a pause on signing any new free agent acquisitions while we mature our young new QB. We will need to replace ageing veterans as they contract expire and (hopefully) be able to sign younger guys coming off their rookie contract whom we consider “core” but I think we are a long way away from a total roster re-build.

Have at it, Freaks!

man that will be tough for him to come back. hope the best for him but i would be surprised if he makes it back

This is the type of post we need more of. I’m tired of seeing the knee-jerk comments about getting rid of this guy or that guy with no real depth of thought out into it. Thanks!

Nice post. Well thought out, and likely the direction we will have to go if we want to do this thing properly.
My only gripe is the fact that you pretty much said we must take a QB with the first pick- to which I agree. However later in your post you alluded to the fact that if your guy isn't there, we go with BPA in the first. This is where I think you are wrong, and that regardless of BPA at wherever we pick (4-7 if I were to guess) we MUST swing for a QB. It's QB or bust there. Even if we trade back 5-10 picks and reach for AR15, we still need to take a signal caller with our first pick. It's a non negotiable and likely Ballard's last stand to win Little Big Horn....but if we can't get high enough in the draft order (further making the Nick Foles start more mind boggling), it could end up being another massacre.
The reason why the Colts could likely fuck this all up is because they have shown me no faith in even being on the same page as it pertains to properly throwing the season to accomplish our required goals going forward. I actually think there are many on the Colts that actually believe that the team still is playing for something this year and they must field the most competitive team- in reality, we should be in full evaluation mode.

I think Ngakoue is someone the Colts should definitely look into keeping, their DE depth is so weak and Ngakoue reliably gets sacks. It was a mistake when they didn't pursue bringing Justin Houston back, it would be a similar mistake to not bring back Ngakoue. Beyond that, I agree with you pretty much lockstep. I would add that getting one of Young or Stroud is so important that almost any and all draft and (within reason) player capital should be available to make it happen, especially since a Top 5 pick is so likely.

I was hoping you would chime in....excellent and informative post! So do the Colts keep Ballard?

I think ballard is back unless he decides he doesnt want to deal with irsay any more.

o


The Colts beat the Chiefs, and they lost to the Eagles by one point ...... 2 teams that could very well wind up in the Super Bowl ...... as disastrous as this season has been, I believe that this team has more talent on it than their 4-10-1 record might indicate.

Getting that talent to execute well and actually win games is a different animal than just having that talent.

o

I actually agree with you on this. The Colts are inept in two very important areas, offensive line and QB. This isn't going to be popular around here but I would like the Colts to sign Carr (no trade-we need our draft capital) and use the draft and free agency to get us an offensive line. I think we have to many players that are to good to go through a rebuild and any of these rookie qbs are going to need years-and none of them are anything like a guaranteed high end QB. The receivers are young but have some promise, especially if we have a qb that could throw a deep ball. JT is a beast when healthy and the defense is good enough to make the playoffs. Of course Carr most likely won't want to come here unless he is taken with whomever we hire as head coach. Shitty time to be a Colt fan.

Ballard is good at collecting talent, but he sucks at team building. They are different things. This is a poorly built team. Primarily because Ballard was again focused on player development and not winning this year. His decisions at LT and RG prove it. The same has been true at DE, WR, and LT in previous seasons.

It’s generally known that Houston wanted out from the day Luck retired. There was no chance he was coming back after that season

Team building is a collaborative effort. If anyone thinks it isnt has no idea how to get 80 people in a room and get them to work together

I took ukcolt's list and tweaked it to my preferences:

QB - None
RB - Taylor, Moss
TE - Alie-Cox, Granson, Woods, Ogletree
WR -Pittman, Campbell, Pierce, Dulin
T - Raimann
G - Nelson, Fries
C - Kelly, Pinter

So that's a total of 15 guys. With me wanting a new starting and backup QB, starting RG, starting RT, swing tackle, mid round RB, #5 WR.

DE - Paye, Ngakoue, Odeyingbo
DT - Buckner, Stewart, Cowart, Johnson, Brooks
LB - Leonard, Okereke, Franklin, Speed, Domann
CB - Gilmore, Rodgers, Moore, Flowers
S - Blackmon, Thomas, McCleod, Cross

A total of 21 guys, with the entirety of our starters coming back. I would like another pass rusher and a corner.

McLaughlin, Sanchez, Rhodes

That's 3 guys returning, hopefully with no issues for Rigoberto. Chase has at least for now proven he deserves another chance next year.

All in all, i have a total of 39 guys returning, who i wouldn't be unhappy if they made the opening day roster for 2023.

I have said i want upgrades at 6 positions, which in my mind is a possibility.
In the draft
1 - LT/RT (either, assuming Raimann can play RT, then get the big Johnson from OSU)
2 - RG
3 - QB
3- T/G
4 - CB
5- BPA

New Head Coach. New OC. Entirely new offensive system (depending on next year's QB, who is hopefully more than a little mobile).

Keep Ballard though. He's better than most, and why take the chance on another Grigson?