Poll: How many wins for the Colts this season?
 

How do you think the season will unfold? How many wins do you think the Colts will have this year?

Explain your estimate with a follow-up post if you wish.



The Colts schedule is below:


1 September 13 1:00 p.m. at Jacksonville Jaguars
2 September 20 1:00 p.m. Minnesota Vikings
3 September 27 4:05 p.m. New York Jets
4 October 4 1:00 p.m. at Chicago Bears
5 October 11 4:25 p.m. at Cleveland Browns
6 October 18 1:00 p.m. Cincinnati Bengals
7 Bye
8 November 1 1:00 p.m. at Detroit Lions
9 November 8 1:00 p.m. Baltimore Ravens
10 November 12 8:20 p.m. at Tennessee Titans
11 November 22 1:00 p.m. Green Bay Packers
12 November 29 1:00 p.m. Tennessee Titans
13 December 6 1:00 p.m. at Houston Texans
14 December 13 4:05 p.m. at Las Vegas Raiders
15 December 19 or 20 Houston Texans
16 December 27 1:00 p.m. at Pittsburgh Steelers
17 January 3 1:00 p.m. Jacksonville Jaguars

I voted 10-12 but think it is more 8-10

I really think they get 11 and win the division.

Of course I was optimistic about last year too.

Season won't be completed. There will be mass outbreaks and an nfl locker room in close quarters is the worst kind of conditions for it. NFL players will die for owners greed. Still gonna watch all the games though.

I have us at 11-5:



1 September 13 1:00 p.m. at Jacksonville Jaguars - Win
2 September 20 1:00 p.m. Minnesota Vikings - Win
3 September 27 4:05 p.m. New York Jets - Win
4 October 4 1:00 p.m. at Chicago Bears - Win
5 October 11 4:25 p.m. at Cleveland Browns - Loss
6 October 18 1:00 p.m. Cincinnati Bengals - Win
7 Bye
8 November 1 1:00 p.m. at Detroit Lions - Win
9 November 8 1:00 p.m. Baltimore Ravens - Loss
10 November 12 8:20 p.m. at Tennessee Titans - Loss
11 November 22 1:00 p.m. Green Bay Packers - Win
12 November 29 1:00 p.m. Tennessee Titans - Win
13 December 6 1:00 p.m. at Houston Texans - Loss
14 December 13 4:05 p.m. at Las Vegas Raiders - Win
15 December 19 or 20 Houston Texans - Win
16 December 27 1:00 p.m. at Pittsburgh Steelers - Loss
17 January 3 1:00 p.m. Jacksonville Jaguars - Win

o


12-3-1


o

I went with 10. We will go as our passing game goes. I want to see if Rivers still has it, familiarity with the system certainly helps. But we have a injury prone number 1 reciever and two unproven young receivers behind him. So we will see.

9-7


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

10-6 or 11-5 if Rivers stays healthy.
8-8 or less if Brissett has to play a lot of games.

I agree that the schedule is sort of set up to go 5-1 in the first six games - the Colts just need to take advantage of the schedule and get off to a fast start.

And one of the two young receivers seems to be a bit injury prone as well.

For football reasons only, I picked 10-12 but that largely depends on Rivers productivity and staying healthy. Ultimately though, I don't think they'll play a full season due to covid-19. We shall see...

Yeah, definitely a favorable schedule. At least on paper it is. Unfortunately the Colts typically get off to a slow start, except for interestingly enough last year :cool:

11-5 AFC South Champs!

Wish that was an option, I am feeling a tad pessimistic, so I went 7-9, but 8-10 feels better.

9-7

Glad to see that most people are fairly optimistic about the season.

I am guessing about 10 wins.

Three games that jump out to me as probable losses are: vs Baltimore, at Tennessee and at Las Vegas.

I don't like the Tennessee game because it is a Thursday night game and on the road. Additionally, the Colts have a tougher opponent the previous game (Colts play Baltimore while Tennessee plays Chicago in Nashville). I don't like the Vegas game because over the last decade the Colts have had a terrible record playing games out west. Even during the seasons when the Colts won 10 or 11 games, they would typically drop a game out west.

I see another half dozen games that will be difficult - the other Tennessee game, both the Houston games, and a few of the better opponents. Of those six games, I figure the Colts will split them and go 3-3.

I bet the over 9.5 for the season, so hoping for 10. :cool:

Man let the shit go your fuckin killin me

Maybe, nothing has been a repeat injury. I had saddling players with that moniker.

If the Colts can stay relatively healthy, I really believe they can go 12-4.

12-4 Mfers

This year I'll try a different approach, just adding up my percentage assessment of winning each game:

Week 1 - at Jacksonville Jaguars (0.85 = 85% chance of winning)
Week 2 - Minnesota Vikings (0.5)
Week 3 - New York Jets (0.8)
Week 4- at Chicago Bears (0.6)
Week 5 - at Cleveland Browns (0.6)
Week 6 - Cincinnati Bengals (0.9)
7 Bye
Week 8 - at Detroit Lions (0.75)
Week 9 - Baltimore Ravens (0.2)
Week 10 -at Tennessee Titans (0.4)
Week 11 -Green Bay Packers (0.35)
Week 12 -Tennessee Titans (0.6)
Week 13 -at Houston Texans (0.5)
Week 14 -at Las Vegas Raiders (0.6)
Week 15 - Houston Texans (0.6)
Week 16 - at Pittsburgh Steelers (0.4)
Week 17 - Jacksonville Jaguars (0.9)

Total wins = 9.55, rounded up to 10

I like your methodology. I believe you are overrating the Packers and Steelers, and maybe underrating the Vikings (home opener...I know), but that's why they play the games.

FWIWIMPYO, I put no complete season due to Covid. If they play the whole slate, I think 10-12 wins because I think Rivers still has it.

You could very well be right. The Vikings will probably be favored in that game, assuming they beat GB this week, but its our first home game and I think we're better than many people think. The Steelers have beaten us so many times over the years that I'm gunshy about them, so I'll stick with my assessment there. The GB assessment may be low though. On the other hand, I feel I may have stretched a bit on NYJ. They always seem to play us well, so my 80% win prediction might be a bit optimistic.

For those predicting 12 wins, I hope you're right but I'd be hard pressed today to be able to increase the percentages enough to reach 12 wins under this type of analysis. That doesn't mean we won't get to 12 wins, on that (in my view) we need a bit of luck on our side.

EDIT: I hope you are wrong about COVID. My personal opinion is that we'll have a full season, but there will be outbreaks which will change the playing field abruptly (and dramatically) at times.

Bump

Well, half right at least

o

Off by a game and-a-half ...... not bad, not great.

o

If not for the COVID game against Tenn, you would have been right. The timing there is why we did not win the division.