$15m?
 

The JT conundrum will be something the Colts will have to deal with sometime either this coming season or after this coming season.

So assuming that JT returns to form, what would you do?

Sign him to a long term contract which is certain to be a $15M+ contract?

Franchise him which would probably be a contract in the $12M range?

Trade him? This is the least likely scenario. Ideally you would have to trade him this spring, especially if he could be used to move up in the draft . But after undergoing ankle surgery, the market will have little interest and his value will be low. He would probably have to be traded during season before the the trade deadline to receive maximum value.

I know that the Colts don't often do this, but I would lean toward the franchise tag.

i am usually a do not pay big on rb.

i think it depends on where the team is at. what contracts we have? whats our cap space? how has his pass blocking developed?

jt is a special player. if the money works then it works. but i would probably lean towards just letting him walk

You're right about the situation. But, you can't just dump JT without his replacement in place or a succession plan such as the transition from Faulk to Edge or even to a lesser extent Edge to Addai.

Taylor is entering his age 24 season, which will be his 4th in the NFL. Between college and the NFL, he has 1,838 touches (1,682 carries, 146 receptions) in his last 6 seasons for an average of 306 touches per season. This average was brought down significantly by his injury plagued 2022 season, in which he only had 220 touches, the first of those 6 seasons under 300 touches. Taylor's average for touches through 5 seasons was 324. So while Taylor is young, there's a lot of mileage on his legs. There is a lot of research that suggests that an NFL RB starts to decline once they reach between 2,250 and 2,500 touches in the NFL, but when college is also considered, 3,000 total touches appears to be pretty close to a "magic number" for decline. Age also plays a role, with the age 28 season being the one where most RBs start to decline. Of Taylor's 1,838 touches, 860 have occurred in the NFL. So, depending on which marker you wish to use, Taylor has somewhere between 1,200-1,600 NFL touches and 4 NFL seasons left before attrition begins to take its toll, statistically speaking. There's a chance Taylor could be the next Frank Gore, but that isn't a smart bet with limited resources in the NFL.

Having done this research, provided it was a team friendly deal with all guaranteed money paid by year 3, I wouldn't be opposed to a 4 or 5 year extension for Taylor. Should he not be interested in that, franchise up to twice and find his replacement.

All of the above said, what value might the Bears assign to Jonathan Taylor? I've seen a lot of ridiculous Bears/Colts projected trades, the least ridiculous of which was this year's Day 1 and 2 (1st, 2nd, and 3rd round picks) and next year's 1. This was done by Brett Kollman, who fortunately also admitted that he was reflecting a "desperation price" for the Colts. He then stated the leverage the Colts have in negotiations with the Bears: they don't want to move back past 4, because doing so would not guarantee them one of Will Anderson or Jalen Carter, the two players the Bears are ultimately after. So, depending on how highly the Bears value Taylor, using him as a substitute for draft capital might be a great solution for both teams. An example of a fair trade IMO would be this year's 1, Taylor, and next year's 2 to move up to 1. That's valuing Taylor at about a late 1 to early 2, but, more importantly, not giving up next year's 1 when drafting a rookie QB. Even better IMO if Eberflus still likes him as much as when he was here would be this year's 1, Taylor, and Leonard. That would move a lot of uncertainty off of the Colts books and keep all of the draft capital in house, though I don't know how likely the Bears would be to accept that given they just traded Roquan Smith and Leonard's contract is one of the larger ones in the league for a LB, but would be much less for them because the Colts would eat all the guarantees.

IF they draft a rookie Qb, Taylor would be a help.

Taylor will run the play and get some yards. Unlike Marshal Faulk, who put the team in second and long too many times. Taylor could take some pressure off a rookie Qb.

I know there are other considerations, I look at taylor as a known commodity, a team guy. Is the team better with a rookie Rb and a possible rookie Qb?

JT's pass blocking would have to improve immensely for him to take the pressure off of a rookie QB.Qb?

o


God damnit, Donald.

o

Getting yardage on each carry. Rookie E James got positive yardage most carries. No 2nd and 15 to go.

I am not interested in any long-term high-value contract in a RB with his wear and tear, maybe tag him a year, but getting draft value is probably the better move long term.

If he’s still hitting on all cylinders then I think they have to work hard to negotiate but if they can’t get him what he needs I think they’ll need to let him go.

I hate that but I do feel like the one thing this franchise can typically get right is identifying RB talent. The only major whiff, in my 30 years, was Richardson. I have faith they’d address the gap there with competence.

Donald Brown, Vick Ballard?

If we don’t pay him, what are we replacing his production with? I know you don’t get better getting rid of talent.

Yeah, maybe Donald Brown because he was a 1st Rounder. He was a decent complimentary RB and could hit the occasional homerun, but that's not what you want to spend a 1st on.

Vick Ballard, though, was a pretty good pick in the 5th round. He looked like he could be our starter going forward until he blew his ACL in 2013 and then his Achilles in 2014. Never could make it back.


That's the balancing act and gamble. RB is the easiest position to replace and we've had a pretty good run bringing in guys. None of them measure up to Taylor, but they also combine for less than what Taylor costs.

Hypothetically... does Zack Moss + Deon Jackson + a rookie + the cap benefit of all three together being 1/4 the potential cost of Jonathan Taylor outweigh the monster production we've seen JT can have + huge cap hit + the risk RB's have of falling off a cliff.

I love JT, but other dudes get paid to do that math (which I butchered above).

Almost every team has a running back on their roster, that you think is "ok". They are easy to find, i suspect you could almost take 32 RB's out of this draft alone and they could all be productive given a free shot at the starting role. But the special ones are harder to find, but then cost a lot more. RB's that can be on the field for all 3 downs are getting rarer and rarer.

I think that you underestimate pass blocking by a RB. Edge may have been the best to ever do it, with due respect to Walter Payton.

JT was very underwhelming as a pass blocker last season...and that's being kind. In his previous seasons he was merely adequate.

There is also the fact that JT gets pulled in passing situations. If he wants to get paid he needs to become a complete back.

The pass blocking is secondary. Taylor and a “good” O-line can get a team 3-4 yd/carry. Short yardage 3rd down situations. Taylor can break one long at any time, bigger threat than pass protection.

I love the Edge, from pass blocking to taking a cab to preseason camp in Terra Haute. Taylor is a different guy and he helps the Colts more by carrying the ball
F

You beat me to it. Ballard was actually pretty good until he got hurt, especially for a 5th rounder. If he had stayed healthy then Grigs may not have wasted a 1st rounder on Richardson. Although as incompetent as Grigs he probably still would have (or wasted the 1st rounder in the draft). :cool:

I find it hard to view Brown objectively because I have a lot of respect for how he finished for us vs how he started. I hated that pick, admittedly, but I felt like the way he finished here was likely what Polian saw when he made that move. I’ll concede my emotions probably okay too much within that context.

I don’t think Ballard had a talent issue. A better argument is a guy like Duron Carter, but for everyone like him - there’s a Mike Hart who I felt probably could have done more in the right situation.

But we can't keep putting big money in less valuable positions like guard and LB. He is great, but we can get 80% of his production for 10% of the money of his next contract likely.

Sounds a lot like Polian. Spend money on the edges, find value at the interior. Find guys who played 3+ years in college, guys who will or did graduate, guys who were team captains. Try to keep them if possible.

I still keep Nelson. He is a great player. He is the best Colts guard, Ive seen. Dumping talent doesn't make sense. He rebounds and has a great season, it will benefit the team. Get him healthy, and the Colts will run left all day long. Let Raimann learn from the best.

Get Nelson healthy and lean on his Leadership. What he can do, when healthy, cant be measured by analytics. Its football, where 11 guys working together make it happen. Its not baseball, were one guy has a big impact

To get some yards per carry, sure. You can get average production there. You can do that with any position. Remove a threatening run game and have no passing game to pick up the slack and well, you get the year we just had.

But he is a legit breakaway threat every time he touches the ball. He would be a great compliment if we had a passing game. Safeties would freak out bc they would never be able to take their eyes off him afraid he will burn them. NFL is about mismatches players create.

We should be trying to add the passing game to make it a dual threat offense, not shooting ourselves in the foot because the rest of the league doesn’t value RBs.

You build around the pieces you have. You will get some production, but it won’t threaten anything, nor will teams need to gameplan around it. And teams that have success with little run game are teams with franchise QBs. We don’t have one and are not guaranteed to get one.

Getting rid of them just means we will be picking high again soon. Everyone had a meltdown bc we had 4 wins this season. Get rid of them and we are back to a rebuild.

All these afc teams are building like the 2000’s colts. Colts teams who lost a lot of playoff games to more complete built Steeler and pat teams. Eagles are about to decimate the Chiefs tomorrow bc they built a complete team and not one dependent on the QB only.

I think I tend to agree with you. I think whichever rookie we take (I lean towards Stroud) will take his lumps, but will at the least be able to stretch the field and give Taylor more looks at open field.

In a way, it's fortunate his injury was kind of a freak tackle from behind rather than him seeming to wear down. So he should be healthy going forward.

o


A final reminder for today's game-thread.


http://www.coltfreaks.com/forum/showthread.php?t=158947

o