Ballard has said over and over that he prefers to draft good young guys, and pay the ones that produce. It is a smart way to do business, because you need a good mix of rookie contracts to counter paying the studs that you drafted when their contracts expire.

What in the film did you see that led you to those conclusions? I gave a very specific and detailed reasoning as to why I feel the way I do. I can accept that you have a different opinion, part of the reason I posted that was not being able to go back and specifically cite where I ranked Russell Wilson ahead of RGIII, also seen as crazy at the time. But it's going to take a lot more than "uh, no" to convince me that the flaws I saw on his film aren't real. As for what GMs would do, I acknowledged in my post that Lawrence has the highest ceiling in the group, and NFL GMs are very prone to convincing themselves to look past flaws and floor to try to get the best ceiling. I'd rather have the best range of outcomes, especially with a Top 10 pick, than just the best ceiling.

Please. Because he operates a ridiculous amount under the cap. Don’t give me the propaganda lines. He keeps fucking around and not addressing team holes. You can’t fill every position with the draft. Then I hear bullshit excuses like “well we weren’t a contender this year anyway.” Well wtf are you doing then half fielding a team. If you addressed the holes maybe we would be a contender.

And don’t give me the “we sign our own.” How many free agents have we signed over four years? A lot. We have plenty of money to sign 1 top FA pass rusher and sign all our upcoming contacts. I just read an article the other day on every pass rusher drafted since 2010, Turay, Banagu, and Lewis were all in the bust section. That’s exactly who we’re are heading into next season with. Even if we draft a pass rusher high, a rookie isn’t going to fix this group.

Thing with Olujari, he will be a 9-tech. If they want to bring him in on 3rd and long, or maybe release him in the 4th quarter to close out a game - ok that’s fine with me. I think he might be the most productive of the bunch. But I don’t know if that is the best investment for a first rounder.

Phillips is intriguing, the athletiscm and potential is there, but he had 4 concussions at UCLA and they told him to quit football. He also broke his wrist on a moped accident. But the arm length, speed , explosion, all good. However, if Ballard passes on Montez Sweat, who Irsay commented on at the combine (something he never does). Are they going to draft Philips in the 1st?

I don’t know about the TJ Watt comparison, I haven’t seen one yet that fits. Even the Miami coach couldn’t come up with a comparison for him.

It’s good we signed Carrie bc he outplayed Sin last year. Xavier is on a one year deal, Sin is in a probe it year. I think you might be underestimating the teams need for a number one corner. Not to say pass rush is in better shape, it isn’t. I just like the chance to fill the corner position with that number one better than the pass rush position this year.

Pass rush guys I could see them drafting 2nd or later is Joe Tryon, Elerson Smith, Payton Turner.

With some huge upcoming contracts that are going to have a lot of upfront money, the Colts may have a bit of a cash-on-hand issue. Nelson and Nelson are going to get paid.

And giving Bud Dupree $33 000 000 at signing makes the Titans look smart? Barrett is 31 yrs old, why throw money there?

How many sure fire pass rushing studs get to free agency? There is no savior in this group.

We have plenty of money to resign those guys AND sign a pass rusher. This is a false narrative.

Tampa Bay had 15 million entering this off season and they signed

WR Chris Godwin (franchise tag)
TE Rob Gronkowski (1 year, $8M)
DT Ndamukong Suh (1 year, $8M)
OLB Shaquil Barrett (4 years, $68M)
LB Lavonte David (2 years, $25M)
K Ryan Succop (3 years, $12M)
RB Leonard Fournette (1 year, $4M)


We had 69 million entering the offseason.

This quote of yours goes against what I saw.

Like I said, I watched a lot of Clemson games, not just this year. I disagree with pretty much all of the above quote. Instead of just writing all of this out, just take out your negatives for Lawrence and replace them with positives. He is the best prospect since Luck. We will see who is right or wrong, at least we won't get fired for getting it wrong.

For me:

1. Lawrence
2. Wilson
3. Fields
4. Lance
5. Jones (Although if Jones goes to the 49ers or Pats, I think he will do well). If he went to the Jags or Jets, not so much. I really think Jones has to have a great situation around him to flourish, like he had at Alabama.

What about Carl Lawson? What about Ngakoue? What about Okwara? What about JJ watt? What about the pass rushers last year or the year before?

At least the Titans are trying to fix the problem. Oh and they won the division last year. Barret seemed to have a pretty good impact on the Bucs.

What’s your answer Jaff? Ben Banagu? How are they going to fix it? Because it’s been a problem for years now

Neither Houston nor Ngakoue has to play 9 tech to be successful, nor would Ojulari. Fortunately for us, Ron Meeks isn't still here, otherwise they might try. I'll admit Ojulari is more of a long term play than a short term quick fix to the pass rush problem. I think drafting Ojulari would almost certainly be accompanied by resigning Houston, which would allow the Colts to bring him along slowly and allow Ojulari to learn from two pass rushers he likely has a great deal of respect for that also share his size and speed profile in Houston and Robert Mathis.

Regarding Phillips, I know you respect Brett Kollman's opinion, so do I. Kollman released a video calling Phillips "a terrifying combination of the Watt brothers" last month. While I'm not as high on him as Brett is, if you watch that video, or really any tape of Phillips in 2020, you'll see a technically sound DE with length and athleticism that uses all those traits to effectively generate pressure and disrupt the opposing offense. That was exactly what I saw out of TJ Watt in 2016 when I wanted the Colts to either trade down and pick him or see him slide to their pick in Round 2 of the 2017 draft. Regarding Phillips's injury history, it's a valid concern, there's no two ways about that, and ultimately drafting Phillips would be contingent on getting clearance from the medical staff that they believe his injury history won't have a significant impact on his long term viability as an NFL player. But my understanding is Phillips's injury history is somewhat fluky in nature, he's just had very bad luck, like the moped accident you mentioned, but I wouldn't question his passion for the game based on UCLA's stupid rule that 3 concussions (and it was 3, not 4) is an automatic forced medical retirement from football at UCLA. In fact, I would argue his coming back from that and transferring elsewhere to finish his collegiate career proves a great passion for football, as he had the perfect out to get away from the game if he wanted to in UCLA's rule. Instead, he sought out a transfer, found a team he was able to make an impact with, and went out and had a pretty solid, productive season that was also injury free. It has to go through the medical team, but Phillips could be another guy like Watt and Sweat that we'll be wishing Ballard had pulled the trigger on several years later if he doesn't. As for a comp for Phillips, I already gave my reasoning on TJ Watt, but Phillips and Chase Young were neck and neck for top DE in the country when they came out of high school. That's mostly tongue in cheek, of course.

I fully understand this team has a long term need for a #1 shutdown corner type, but I also recognize that need as more long term the way the roster stands at present. CB is also a position that Ballard has had a lot of success at finding a lot of value on Day 3 and in UDFA, where DE/EDGE has been less successful in those regards. I'm not saying it's impossible the Colts would draft a CB at 21 or 54, but to me, doing that leaves you with a major glaring hole at LT or EDGE going into 2021 that you can try to fill with a developmental guy, but that may not work. If a CB is not drafted at 21 or 54, the Colts go into 2021 with Xavier Rhodes, Kenny Moore, Rock Ya-Sin, TJ Carrie, Isaiah Rodgers (who looked good down the stretch), and Marvell Tell III. That's a solid depth chart already, and while it would likely be intelligent to supplement it with a Day 2 pick in 2022 since Rhodes and Carrie aren't getting any younger, it's a fine group to get through the 2021 season with IMO.

I think there are a lot of players with a lot of potential to develop into quality pass rushers on Day 2 and beyond. A small list, in no particular order, that I think could find success as a pure edge or in the Denico Autry role for the Colts and could be available on Day 2:

Gregory Rousseau
Jayson Oweh
Ronnie Perkins
Payton Turner
Joseph Ossai
Joe Tryon
Cameron Sample
Dayo Odeyingbo
Rashad Weaver
Tarron Jackson
Osa Odighizuwa
Milton Williams
Jaylen Twyman
Elerson Smith
Quincy Roche
William Bradley-King

Knowing Ballard's tendency to greatly value Senior Bowl performance, keep your eye on Elerson Smith, Tarron Jackson, and Cameron Sample from that group, as all 3 had excellent practice weeks at the Senior Bowl, most of all Elerson Smith, who seemed to beat everyone there in the same way Quinn Meinerz did, he just didn't get as much attention for it.

I'm not saying you're wrong because of this, but your ranking is the most consensus ranking of the QB position (6 is Mond, typically, by the way). That suggests to me that you're doing less watching of the film and more listening to the pundits who all seem to have this tendency to want to align with one another rather than have their own opinions. There should be a larger variance in prospect rankings than what exists in the general draft "expert" community, because not everyone is going to value the same traits at each position. I know that the traits I value at the QB position are the result of seeing what went right with my good evaluations over the years and what went wrong with my bad ones, and they tend to differ vastly from a lot of the scouting community. An easy example of this is that I value athleticism from the QB position much less than the average NFL scout or draft pundit, and I value anticipation throws much more. That's because, as I explained before, athleticism can land a QB on IR and/or cut his career short, and good pocket mobility is often a sufficient substitute at the QB position for athleticism, and one that will keep your QB around longer. Anticipation throws, meanwhile, are a good barometer of how much preparation work a QB is putting in, how well that QB understands the concepts of his offense and how quickly he can pick them up, and how well that QB can read a defense in real time, as well as pick up subtle nuances on certain players that will give him situational advantages in games. I'd say out of the scouting community that exists right now, the people who I most closely align with on evaluating QBs are Kyle Shanahan and Chris Simms. That's why I fully believe Mac Jones will be the pick at 3 and that the talk happening there isn't a smokescreen in the slightest.

Also, your comment on Mac Jones there doesn't make much sense to me. Of course situation is important for Mac Jones, situation is important for every player. Patrick Mahomes wouldn't be Patrick Mahomes had the Dolphins drafted him. Nate Solder would've likely been the colossal bust I thought he was destined to be had Dante Scarnecchia not gotten hold of him. Joey Galloway and Joe Horn were highly talented receivers who were never quite as good as Marvin Harrison in part because neither Galloway nor Horn ever had elite QB play, whereas Marvin had the greatest QB to ever play throwing him the ball for all but one season of his career. I could name hundreds and thousands more examples like this, but I think the point is made.

I would throw Patrick Jones II into that group as a late 2 or early 3 player.

Translation: I want everyone to think I am the smartest in the room

Add in the 17 players you listed as people you like for other rounds, and you are throwing out a bunch of names, hoping to be able to point back here when one of them does well and say you knew it. You are probably the guy at parties who everyone avoids due to being a blowhard know-it-all.

NO, just fucking NO! I have already told you that I watched a lot of Clemson games, and it is my fucking opinion that he is the best QB coming out of college. I didn't need the pundits to tell me what I saw. He is head and shoulders the best QB coming out of college, period! You have a lot of great points, but you are not the only one who watches game tape. I just am not as high on Jones as you are. Plus, Sewell is going to be a great pro.

As far as Marvin vs. Galloway, give me a fucking break here please. Give either one of them the same QB and Marvin would still be head and shoulders the better wide receiver. Just watch the fucking tape, like you say you do. Marvin was better in every aspect of the game than Galloway.

The bottom line though is that anyone who would take Jones over Lawrence is living in crazy town. Lawrence can take a bad team and make them better, Jones just fucking can't. Jones can go to a team like the 49ers or Pats and do well though. Remember that Shanahan wanted Cousins, that is who Jones is.

As far as the rankings go, I will say that I really only watched Lawrence, Fields, and Jones. The other 2, not so much.

He next best threat for the colts is in the draft.

Jaff, I like you brother, but don't post when you have been drinking. At least for me, it hurts my brain.

For next year? That’s a pretty big gamble that a rookie is going to come in and solve your pass rush. Since 2015 five rookies have had 9 sacks or more. Four of them were top ten picks.

Odds are this is not going to happen. You guys keep acting like the draft is a sure thing and FA is a gamble. FA is a safer bet than the draft. At least you have performances against other pros.


And we still haven’t even talked about addressing WR and TE. Irsay said he wants two more explosive players on offensive, don’t know how thats going to happen at this point.

Nothing is certain. If you dont like what is in front of you, you look somewhere else.

There is no perfect answer. There is no magic wand to make this better. But you make the decisions you wanna make rather than the ones you’re forced into.

The draft comes you make a deal you move up to get the guy you want. Or you trade back and get more pics and find out there.

There is no magic eight ball to give you the right answer. It’s a gamble it always has been. Chris Ballard is playing the long game. It sucks and it’s Chancey but it’s what we have. It doesn’t bother me because I’m not responsible for it. Every decision Ballard makes, could impact his job as in keeping it.

We will just wait for draft day and see what’s coming, because reading Chris Ballard’s mind, it’s a lot harder than people think

Was the other Max Crosby?

I understand the concern about not having a dominating pass rush. I think it is a huge overreaction. First I am pleased as shit at how this defense has progressed under this admin. We cannot be run over anymore. That is a huge relief. Nobody physically dominates us on a consistent basis. I love that. As for the pass rush I just didn't see any Deacon Jones' or Reggie Whites' out there. The guys people are pissed we didn't sign will, except in a few unpredictable cases, will be not be people that are keeping offensive minds stay awake at night with worry next year. And they all were overpayed. You give a guy 2 million more than he is worth and you don't have that to pay Carrie. Ballard likes to draft high ceiling guys that take a few years to develop. I am expecting some return on those draft choices this year. I am hopeful one or two will get a light turned on. I would rather root for that than hope a guy who some other team didn't want, that we paid big for, suddenly becomes our alpha dog.

There will be a bunch of guys released after the draft and at the 53 man cut down. Value guys. Wait until the start of the season until you run Ballard out of town.

The finished body of work is what you should be looking at. Not when work still needs to be done.

I actually intentionally excluded Jones because while he and Weaver both have the same, for lack of a better term, positional athleticism going on (they both have average RAS scores, but elite scores in key categories that would indicate their ability to succeed at DE), Weaver's hand usage and rush plan are more advanced, and he was able to more consistently generate pressure. The better technical skill makes Weaver more likely to succeed at the next level, and I think that's going to be necessary for him. Jones is much more of a project to me, and it's going to be difficult for him to translate that into success without elite athleticism to carry him when he struggles with technique.

I don't really care about anyone thinking I'm the smartest in the room, honestly. If I did, I certainly wouldn't have stuck around here. I like being able to point to my opinions in writing because people have a tendency of not believing it unless it's in writing. Someone here even fact checked me when I said that Aaron Donald was the player I wanted in the 2014 NFL Draft.

I pointed out a bunch of players with traits not because I want to be "right" (I'd've included Patrick Jones II in that list if I was trying to just be "right", because consensus likes Jones way more than I do), but because it's a group of players I've watched in some form or another that has promising traits. Elerson Smith, for example, is one of my favorite late round guys (and might go on Day 2) because he has ridiculous length and athleticism, and he went to the Senior Bowl and dominated every OT not named Dillon Radunz (which, incidentally, is a factor in me liking Radunz more than most).

Can you give analysis beyond "I watched a lot of Clemson and Trev's the best because I say so"? Because that doesn't address all the times he struggled to read a defense and ended up tucking and running on most of Clemson's shot plays where one of his receivers didn't get college open. That doesn't address how Swinney seemingly covered for Lawrence's inability to read a defenseby making his offense heavy on screens and quick one read passes. That doesn't address that Lawrence misses open windows on NFL throws and hesitates to get the ball out, preferring to run rather than throwing timely into an NFL type of window. That doesn't address how freshman Trevor Lawrence and junior Trevor Lawrence are not very distinguishable from one another on film, meaning he hasn't improved much as a QB in 3 years of college football. "I watched a lot of Clemson and Trevor's the best because I say so" doesn't address those concerns. Got anything you saw on film that does?

I don't think anyone's trying to run Ballard out of town, and if they were, they'd be stupid to do so.

re-read what I typed, I said nothing about cap space, I was talking cash to pay the upfront money.

Carl Lawson. I rounded up since he had 8.5.

The Bosa’s, Chase Young, and Bradley Chubb.

It’s possible, I don’t know what his finances are. But it’s not like Irsay has a corporation that brings money in, this is his business. But Leonard, Smith, and Hines next year. Then Nelson the year after that.

I’m not sure what you are talking about. Not all risks are the same buying a lottery ticket and hitting on a 13 in blackjack are both gambling, but different odds on each. Not doing anything can be just as bad as making the wrong move as well.

I’ll keep it simple. His job is to fill the holes in the roster. Ballard does a good job. I don’t want to run him out of town like Ironshaft implied. But the dude isn’t above criticism. And when you continually sit on a pile of cash and don’t address the same deficiencies on the roster year after year, I start to question what you’re doing. Because this team goes no where without a pass rush. I said the exact same thing last year, and here we are again. It’s holding the team back.

Pass rushers are hard to find, you get them however you can. All four championship teams had free agent pass rushers. His philosophy is nice, but it only works if you hit on your draft picks.

People act like Ballard has won something, I like the guy too, but we haven’t won anything. We are barely squeaking into the playoffs.

You actually missed Crosby, he did have 10 as a rookie.

https://www.pro-football-reference.c...C/CrosMa00.htm

I was surprised that TJ Watt only had 7 as a rookie. And that Mack only had 4 as a rookie and was a rookie in 2014.

If I had to put money on someone from this class getting 9+ sacks in 2021, it would be Phillips. I think his combination of technical skill and athleticism gives him a chance to get there. Ojulari is bursting with talent, and he's really technically advanced for a 21 year old, but he's going to need to learn to use his hands better to get to the level he'll need to be at to get to 9 sacks.

Barely squeaking into the playoffs with the bullshit he's had to guide this team through is still incredibly impressive. I agree that he needs to loosen the pursestrings a bit in free agency, but let's not disparage what he's been able to accomplish in very trying circumstances.

Damn it Dam. I surely am not as detailed as you, but I felt the same way about Manning over Leaf, Luck over RGIII and Castonzo over Carimi, based on what I saw, I will repeat that, based on WHAT I SAW. I have also got my ass kicked on others who didn't turn out how I thought they would. I'm no expert on this, not even close. I'm not the only one who thinks Lawrence is the number 1 QB, all the experts who get paid shitloads of money think so too. Could they all be wrong, hell yes they can. The draft is not an exact science, many sure fire picks have busted.

Let me ask you a question Dam, if you had the number 1 pick in the draft and needed a QB, who would you take knowing your job was on the line?

Zach Wilson, without a second thought.

I’m sorry I lied there. We are dominating our division and earning a solid seed in the playoffs every year. We were two plays away from missing the playoffs again.

Every team has trying circumstances. But QB wasn’t the issue last year. It wasn’t a strength two years ago, but it wasn’t the biggest problem either. Lacking a franchise QB doesn’t stop him from getting more talent in the WR room. Nor does it stop him from getting more pass rush help.

I would like to add that Ballard basically gave up the first year of his reign to get Pagano his type of player for his defensive system, while doing so with the previous regimes scouting department. So essentially that was a wasted year.

The Colts were also two plays away from winning the AFC South (the Texans nearly upset the Titans in Week 17), and that doesn't even factor in the way that Buckner missed the most important game of the year and that the Titans basically got handed their win against the Colts by the NFL.

Every team has trying circumstances, but even current and former GMs acknowledge that the circumstances Ballard have had to deal with are far more challenging than what most GMs face. And I'd say Ballard has guided the franchise through to a place where they're still contenders, and will be for the foreseeable future. How many GMs could've pulled that off within 20 months of unexpectedly losing the franchise QB that was entering what was supposed to be the prime of his career and was in place when they were hired? Not many. Again, I agree with you that Ballard needs to loosen the pursestrings a bit in free agency, but that's pretty much the only criticism I would say is really justifiable based on his tenure to this point.

Yeah I know all the excuses. Most of our scouts stayed the same. The guys at the top of the office changed like Ed Dodds.

Injuries happen, what if Turay had been healthy this year? That is why he wants to build depth. However, there is a reason you say you are what your record is. Again, squeaking in is exactly what they did. The year before, less bounces went their way and they missed. They are keeping their head above water. Mostly because they have good talent on the team. But still lacking in very influential areas, and now we have LT to deal with. We should be focused on LT and getting Wentz more weapons. Instead we are debating spending our first on another pass rusher in a mediocre, but deep, pass rusher draft.

Every team has those trying times articles. Does it suck? Sure, but other teams have lost their guy also, FA, injury. But Ballard has been shuffling QBs, a lot of teams have QB consistency issues. Hence the mad rush for the rookie QBs this year. I don’t hold Ballard responsible for Luck or the fallout. I do hold him responsible for the things he can control though.

You can’t have it both ways. You can’t say “we are rebuilding, this team isn’t ready.” Then turn around and say “this team is special, they have a shot, they can do it.” This mostly comes from the fanbase. If the team is a contender then you need to fill those gaps best you can. Pass rush and wide out have been understaffed for awhile. If the team comes up short, maybe it was because you didn’t do enough to get talent on the team. And with 30-60-90 million sitting there. Did your inaction cost the team a better shot? Because I keep coming back to the end of these seasons and wonder if it’s another wasted opportunity. I know I’m preaching to the choir, but it seems to others that Ballard can do no wrong and I don’t agree with that.

I mean, consider it this way. In 2011 we had a terrible team, and hired Grigson/Pagano. They started kinda hot, had a good run, but the team deteriorated pretty fast.
So we started over, this time with Ballard/Reich.
They actually started kinda slow, and there's been stops and starts, but I think we see no signs of it all falling apart like we did 3-4 years into Grigson/Pagano.
No bullshit chopping wood coach speak. no rumors of locker room dysfunction, no weird press conference where Irsay has to act like the preschool teaching getting kids to hug and make up.

Ballard has been a net positive, and him not rushing out to spend big $$ in free agency, if that's his approach, I'm OK. He's the anti-Grigson.

We have had one championship in the last 49 years. We have been signing big time free agents since Will Wolford. It has not led to dominance. This is the first time I can recall when we have someone who values line play above all else. Ballard said when hired that he would build the lines and a defense that could stop the run. Every freaking GM seems to say that. He actually has done it. Our pass rush isn't there yet but does anyone believe Ballard thinks it is? He just builds a team his way. He has done enough already that I have confidence he will get it done.

Buckner wasn't injured for the Titans game, he was held out on a false COVID positive. It was total bullshit that cost the Colts the division. Notice I didn't bring up Autry who was actually injured for that game.

I absolutely agree that Ballard should be held accountable for his lack of use of free agency. But to me, that's basically the only thing he's gotten wrong, and only to a certain extent. When he has swung in free agency, he's hit mostly home runs. Autry, Ebron, Houston, and Rhodes all outperformed their contracts.

Exactly, Ballard brings organizational stability to the Colts, and that's something you can't buy in the NFL that brings sustained success to a franchise for long periods of time.

Good choice. But have you watched a lot of tape on Wilson?

Wilson’s durability was called into question throughout his career at BYU. He underwent surgery on his right shoulder labrum in 2019 — an injury that had been bothering him since high school — and has also dealt with a right hand injury. Wilson is also somewhat undersized at 6-foot-2 and 214 pounds, which could give teams a cause for concern.

BYU dominated most of its 2020 schedule, which was weak as hell outside of Boise, but faltered in a major test against Coastal Carolina. Fucking Coastal Carolina! Wilson struggled under the bright lights and turned in his worst performance of the season, throwing for just 240 yards, one touchdown and one interception.

But, I will say this, he's a better option than your boy Jones. Lawrence is the top QB in this class, and it really isn't debatable. The Jackoffs may fuck him up, but I would take him number 1 all day, everyday over the rest!

I've watched at least 5 games of Zach Wilson that was just the game film cut to show only his plays and several different film breakdowns that were focused on him. I personally consider 3 games to be the bare minimum to get a baseline on a player. I'm not concerned about his size, and labrums typically heal and don't recur. I already touched on why I think Wilson will succeed in the NFL, which is primarily his ability to make a play positive for the offense when it breaks down.

As for the rest of what you said, we've been over why I disagree ad nauseum, so I'll just say I disagree.