Marvelous Marvin? He was a good one, but wrong sport.

NO.
There's only one Marvin for us, and his last name is Harrison.

Tyjuan Hagler

I thought about creating a separate positional rankings thread for the 2021 NFL Draft, but I don't know that anyone else is crazy enough to have invested too many hours of their time for no payoff other than forming their own opinions about draft prospects. Anyway, I wanted to put a couple of my own (admittedly somewhat fluid) positional rankings out there. These are in no way comprehensive (for example, I've only watched the top 5 QBs. I have no opinion on Kellen Mond at present), just my rankings based on who I've watched along with analysis. I'm only doing QB and OT for now (and only QB in this post), as those are the two positions I've watched the most (I might do DE/Edge at some point, but I haven't watched enough players at the position yet to form a cogent ranking. If I find time to watch 5-10 more players between now and the draft, maybe, but that's unlikely), and I'm also going to include a section on what I value at these positions, so that hopefully my rankings make more sense. For example, my ranking of Trevor Lawrence is entirely about what I value in QBs, and I could certainly see why another person who values different attributes might rank him differently. So, without further ado:

Positional Rankings

QB
What I value at QB: Accuracy, anticipation throws, and ball placement are the top 3 traits for a QB to be successful in the NFL in my opinion. Accuracy is about the QB delivering a catchable ball on any given throw. Anticipation throws are about throwing the ball when the QB sees an indicator that his receiver is going to be open in a window, trusting his receiver to get open in that window, and starting the throw to that window 1-2 seconds before the receiver actually comes open. Ball placement is about the QB throwing the ball where the receiver is the only player who can make a play on the ball. If he doesn't get it, no one will. I also highly value the ability to make plays off-script, especially when that ability primarily translates into chunk pass plays, or turning potentially negative pass plays into positive ones. This is the ability of the QB to, when the play breaks down, use his athleticism and pocket mobility to buy time, allow his receivers to come open, and make throws that in some cases are very difficult to make, but result in positive plays for the offense. These are the plays that frustrate and demoralize an opposing defense. Finally, I like athleticism in a QB, but I view running frequently as a QB as a negative trait. The reasons are twofold: first, this behavior significantly increases the chance of injury, thereby likely decreasing the career length of the QB in question, and second, a QB who runs frequently is likely a QB who isn't going through all of his progressions and is bailing out on a play at the first sign of trouble. That second point is a recipe for long term failure in the NFL.

Rankings
1) Zach Wilson, BYU: I believe that Wilson has Patrick Mahomes level potential, but is also more NFL ready today than Mahomes was in 2017. I also believe he is going to a Jets team that currently has a lot of building blocks in place and is going to add 4 top 100 players in this draft outside of Wilson. Put on tape of Zach Wilson, and you will see a clinic in the positive traits I listed above. He is incredibly accurate, displays good anticipation, and has great ball placement, especially on deep throws. In that tape you will also see him frequently facing pressure, having to adapt, and make off script throws, and typically he makes this look easy. The biggest negatives I see in him are that sometimes he'll get too cute trying to make off-script plays, such as trying to do the no-look pass stuff (I don't even like when Mahomes does that, but it's hard to argue with results), and at times he trusts his arm too much and tries to fit balls into very tight windows (though this works out more often than not, so, again, hard to argue with results). Barring injury, I see Wilson's ceiling as a top 10 NFL starting QB, with a floor of a high quality backup.

2) Mac Jones, Alabama: Considering the current rumors about the third overall pick, it seems that perhaps Kyle Shanahan is seeing what I'm seeing here. The 49ers are currently the best situation for a rookie QB to walk into, and if they select Mac Jones, I believe he will look like the best of the bunch in 2021 because of this. Mac Jones is the most pro ready QB I've seen since Andrew Luck. His accuracy and ball placement rivals Joe Burrow's (who didn't get knocked for playing with Justin Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase, Terrance Marshall, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire), and his anticipation is by far the best I've ever seen from a college QB. He's on par with high end NFL veteran starting QBs in anticipation throws. The common knocks on him include surrounding talent (see notes on Joe Burrow above), arm strength and athleticism. Regarding the latter two, I see this as an opportunity rather than a weakness. Jones's pocket mobility is sufficient for when a play breaks down, he can make off-script plays and keep his offense moving, but it is very clear that he did not, as of the night of the national championship game, have an NFL body. To me, this means that he performed at a near optimal level with suboptimal conditioning. Putting him in an NFL strength and conditioning program is an opportunity to give him the arm strength and perhaps even some of the athleticism he lacks, which could even make him better than Wilson. With Jones, I see the floor as a #20-25 NFL starting QB with the ceiling being Top 10 starting NFL QB, barring injury of course.

3) Justin Fields, OSU: Justin Fields is a high upside talent with a high bust factor (a common theme of he and the next 2 QBs). Unfortunately at the present time, it's very unclear where he will end up, which makes it harder to project him as a player, as situation is a very important factor. Fields typically displays good accuracy and good ball placement, but struggles at times with anticipation and can be fooled by disguises from a defense (see: Indiana tape). Fields's athleticism is off the charts, and his ability to make off-script plays is very good, but too often he does it by becoming a runner, which creates a much higher injury risk as a concern. I think Fields will come much closer to ceiling than floor with a good developmental coaching staff and a redshirt year. In my opinion, Fields's floor is out of the league in 4 years, and his ceiling is Top 10 NFL starting QB.

4) Trevor Lawrence, Clemson: This is likely to be the most controversial of my rankings, but I will stand by it whether he hits ceiling or not. I've watched A LOT of Clemson tape to come to this conclusion, and the problem I have with the projections I see of Lawrence is that I see an incredibly significant bust factor in him for which I don't think people are accounting. Quite honestly, of the three traits I listed that were most important in my evaluation, for me Lawrence was lacking in both accuracy and anticipation, and possibly above average in ball placement. He missed open receivers and missed open windows far too often because he wasn't starting the throw at the right time, he wasn't putting the ball in the right place, or he was throwing to the wrong read. Lawrence's anticipation is awful at present, and to me, he is much more of an example of benefiting from talent around him than Mac Jones. He also struggled off-script, and made a lot of his best plays with his legs, which will increase the chance of injury. It also doesn't help that he's going to what appears to be the second worst organization in the NFL (the worst being the Texans as long as Jack Easterby is around) on a roster that is relatively bereft of talent. Lawrence would benefit greatly from sitting a year and learning, but with the situation he's being thrust into, that's an impossibility. It's a testament to Lawrence's athletic gifts, character, and displayed on-field perseverance that I have him ranked ahead of Lance. Expect Lawrence to struggle in Year 1, and it's very possible that the Jaguars will ruin him. Floor for Lawrence is Ryan Leaf level bust, and ceiling is Peyton Manning level success.

5) Trey Lance, NDSU: Trey Lance is the biggest example of how valued ceiling becomes in the NFL draft. If you watch his tape, you can convince yourself he's a first round pick based on it. He's accurate, has good ball placement, and makes the occasional good anticipation throw, though he rarely has to call upon it. He also makes plays off-script well, but uses his legs too often to do that, making injuries a concern. Of course with Lance, level of competition is a concern, as NDSU is an FCS school, and it makes you wonder how well he would do if his receivers weren't so wide open and he had to throw into tighter windows. Alternatively, there is the intriguing upside of Lance's age, being that he will be 21 at the start of the 2021 season. Again, it is unclear where Lance will end up, but I think both Lance and whatever team gets him would be best served by sitting him for at least 1 and possibly even 2 seasons. Lance's floor is out of the league in 4 years and his ceiling is Top 10 starting NFL QB.

I hope your assessment of Lawrence is correct if the Jags draft him.

All I can say is watch his film. If you get wide angles of plays, you'll see him start throwing a ball when a receiver gets to an open window. That's not when the throw has to be made for the receiver to be open, especially in the NFL. As a QB you have to read the defense, process their coverage shell, and know the play your team is running well enough to know that, for example, against a Cover 2 Zone, the 15 yard post is going to be open in MOF, and that the ball has to be thrown to MOF WHEN THE RECEIVER IS MAKING HIS CUT for the throw to be open. Lawrence waits for the receiver to be in the MOF spot to throw the ball, resulting in a PBU.

If you watch Lawrence and Mac Jones back to back, it's night and day difference. You can freeze frame film on Jones and watch when he throws a fade. The INSTANT Jones sees the DB turn his back to run with the WR, ball is coming out and perfectly placed back shoulder 15-25 yards downfield. That throw is like clockwork for him with how consistent he is with it. Pick any fade he threw, you'll see it every time. Another great example is the crosser TD to Devonta Smith in the NC game. OSU ran Cover 3 and had a single high safety, Jones probably knew right away based on the look that he wanted Devonta. At the snap, Jones immediately begins looking left, drawing the safety that direction and away from MOF with his eyes. That left Tuf Borland to cover Devonta Smith, which meant all Mac had to do was loft one in over the top where Borland could never get to it and just let Devonta run under it, which he did. Those little things I'm describing are the difference between Peyton Manning and Ryan Leaf.

Now, none of this is to say that Lawrence can't learn this stuff, he seems to have the right character and talent to burn to be able to do it, but he's also had 3 years at Clemson to improve this stuff, and he just simply hasn't. That's a huge red flag to me, and I don't understand why it's not a cause for concern for most evaluators.

No need to get defensive. I wasn't arguing with you.

I wasn't trying to be defensive. I just enjoy talking about the subject. I really resonate with E.J. Snyder's statement on his Twitter bio that "Game film is my drug of choice".

Only thing we can’t account for is these guys personality, Ballard seems to be big on high character team guys, locker room guys or whatever so I’m starting to think Eichenberg or cosmi might fight what they’re looking for as far as that goes

There's a solid TE and two athletic pass rushers coming from Notre Dame this year. People are reading too much into the Colts going to ND's pro day with Eichenberg.

maybe. I bet he was on their list to check out when there as he may be an option if we push OT off to second round. Plus why wouldnt they go to ND for pro day as its so close.

I don’t see how they can push it off, there’s nothing more important right now they can’t risk that for a TE or a situational pass rusher

What about Cosmi? He seems like a perfect fit, big athletic guy more in the costanzo mold than Jenkins is and has more experience at LT

Jenkins is more like Castanzo than Cosmi IMO. I'd be fine with either, honestly, though I'd only draft Jenkins at 21 of the two. Cosmi could be there at 54 and would be great value there. The depth of this OT class makes me want to go Ojulari or Phillips (dealer's choice on who you like) at 21 and pick up whichever of the starting caliber OTs is left at 54.

I agree I am hoping they nail down a 10 year left tackle with 21. But if there is a DE there they love I could see ballard waiting for Rd 2 to grab a LT since its supposed to be a deep class. Maybe even a move up a bit in the second to grab someone.

I just feel like you can generate a pass rush, solidify that O line is crucial here

IMO the board at 21 is:

1) Rashawn Slater (likely won't be there)
2) Teven Jenkins
3) Christian Darrisaw (likely won't be there)
4) Azeez Ojulari
5) Jaelan Phillips (if your medical team clears you to draft him)
6) Trade Down

I can actually see them go CB. I don’t see anyone at DE they would pick over a LT. But I can see Jaycee Horn or Greg Newsome being picked over a LT.

I can't see Ballard drafting Jaycee Horn. Maybe Newsome, but not over any of the 5 names I posted earlier. Remember Ballard is a big believer in football being won in the trenches.

I don't like Darrisaw's tape. He fears the speed rush and immediately kicks out to his left.

He'll get beat inside a lot doing the in the NFL.

Plus Horn is not a willing tackler in the running game.

That's why I have Darrisaw below Jenkins. I think Darrisaw will be a quality starting LT, but for the reason you mentioned, among many others, I think Jenkins will be better.

That's exactly why Ballard won't draft him. He is a terrible scheme fit.

There is also Caleb Farley, and in the second Asante Samuel Jr. Ballard is also a believer in analytics. And teams played more dime defense last year than base defense for the first time ever. Nickle is the new base defense. You need more talented DBs on the field than ever before.

He is a willing tackler, he’s just a bad tackler. He puts his head down, doesn’t wrap up or drive his feet.

He does grab a lot though in coverage. And I wonder if he will get away with that in the pros.

Farley and Surtain will be gone by 21. I get that DBs are becoming more important than ever, but I'd be surprised to see Ballard draft a DB at 21 or 54. If he trades down? Sure. If he picks up a 3, I could even see him going there on Day 2, but I think he addresses Edge and LT before anything else in this draft. He also comes from organizational philosophies that tend to prioritize finding undervalued ballhawks. With the Bears, he helped them bring in Tillman and Vasher. In KC, he was part of the front office that drafted Marcus Peters. I see Ballard being more likely to take a Shakur Brown (in Round 4) than a Jaycee Horn (in Round 1).

So you're getting Rock Ya-Sin, but a worse tackler? Pass.

I’ve seen Farley go after Newsome in most mocks. Surtain will be the first CB off the board. I think all the edge prospects are projects, the CB’s are better group at the top this year. He’s spent high draft capital on two corners already.

So you’re saying Jaycee Horn is like Rock ya sin. Who they drafted and see as a scheme fit. Ok

I don't see Ojulari or Phillips as projects. I think either of those two come in and start Day 1 for you, and I think Phillips is a Top 15 pick without the concussion history. I would agree that CB is a better overall group in this draft at the top, but I would argue that at 21, you're looking at CB3 or CB4 vs. EDGE1, and I'd argue EDGE1 is better than CB3 in this draft.

I haven't really watched Horn, so I don't have much of an opinion on him. I was going off of you saying he gets grabby to point out that that is Ya-Sin's biggest flaw at present, then adding to that that Horn is a bad tackler, which is one of the strong points of Ya-Sin's game. In other words, Horn is a bad scheme fit because he can't tackle, and he brings one of the worst traits of Ya-Sin which is keeping Ya-Sin from reaching his potential. That's why I say pass.

He is best as a press off man corner. Think Richard Sherman at the line, and similar to Sherman in a lot of ways actually. He would probably do well initially in a man heavy defense, but I think he can play zone as well. But he is most disruptive when receivers are trying to get into their routes. He is the son of Saints WR Joe Horn. He is grabby, but the difference between he and Sin is Rock grabs because he gets in trouble and doesn’t have the make up speed to get out of it, Horn does. Also Rock had a crappy RAS at 6-7 I think, Horn is a 10 I believe. I think he would be a very good match for us.

I don’t see Olujari being drafted by us. We could have signed Yannick Ngakoue who is similar in build and style and already produces in the league. But we didn’t try to sign anyone except Houston. I like Phillips but he has some question marks and I don’t see a lot of separation from the pack of other top edge athletes but questionable production. We already have three projects who are on the edge of being busts. I don’t see them drafting another athletic project with their first.

You may be looking at CB2-CB4. But the same could be said for DE, and I think the CB group at the top is better than the Pass rush group this year. But unlike LT and DE, CB starts to falls off after those top guys. If the LT they like is not there, I can see them trading down to get that 3rd draft pick back somehow, or I see them grabbing a CB and LT in the second. CB because I’m not sure Rock is gonna work out and every defense is now playing nickle and dime more than ever before.

Draft 2021
 

^^^ I got the sense we didnt go after those DL free agents mostly due to the contracts that would come with them.


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I know Horn has good bloodlines, and I know he's an excellent cover CB. I also know Ballard values physicality and tackling ability from the CB position, and I don't know that Horn has that. I'm not even saying I would dislike having him on the team, just that I don't see Ballard pulling the trigger on him specifically. I also think it's a largely irrelevant discussion because Horn is incredibly likely to go Top 15.

Regarding Ojulari, given his HWS, alma mater, and production, I think a Justin Houston comp is much more apt than the Yannick Ngakoue one they put on him at the Athletic. That said, the Colts should have pursued Ngakoue, and IMO it would be a mistake to pass on Ojulari unless Slater or Jenkins is there. Regarding Phillips, I see a highly refined technically sound DE with athleticism that, in combination, will allow him to be a productive starter provided the medical team clears the Colts to draft him. IMO Phillips has a TJ Watt ceiling with a Denico Autry floor. That's a player I want on my team.

First round CB with no trade down is pretty much a nightmare scenario, and the same could be said for any position other than OT and EDGE at 21. That said, I think the recent resigning of T.J. Carrie combined with the earlier resigning of Xavier Rhodes indicates that CB is not a position they'll target early in the draft.

I’m starting to wonder if we have money problems.

That's a valid concern when they're so far under the cap and can't beat 2/$16 for someone as productive as Ngakoue and they have a desperate need at the position.

When did Carrie get re-signed? I missed that.

I saw something about it last night. Don't remember where.

https://forums.colts.com/topic/70405...-carrie-merge/

Don't know how accurate this is, I didn't see much anywhere else.

Kenny Moore confirmed it yesterday. BuT TJ Carrie himself confirmed it. This is great news. Now, go get that Offensive tackle and edge rusher. So damn excited for this year!

I think, outside of the Bills, we are the one team that can kick the Chiefs ass and make it to the SB. My one dream scenario, is that we meet the Bucs in the SB and kick Tom Brady's ass. IMO, that will let me die one ass happy camper.

Why? The TV money covers the cap. Isnt there a cap floor that all teams must cover? If the Colts cant do that, I might believe they have money problems.

You guys just cant out guess Chris Ballard.

I agree! The Irsay's have donated 4 million to charity, doesn't sound like a money problem to me. I have said this before, I wouldn't trade Irsay for any other owner in the league. He has the money, Ballard is just being smarter than most of the other GM's. He isn't overpaying for mediocre to average talent. I was one who was on the sign Carl Lawson bandwagon, but he was the only one I kinda wish Ballard would have signed. But for his production, not sure he was worth 15 million per year for 3 years. He is good, but not dominant. Ballard is one smart SOB.

Uh, no. Lawrence is the number 1 QB, period. My only question about him is that he is kinda like Luck. Football may not be is primary focus in life based on his latest statements. But you can't tell me that he is lower than any of these other 4 QB's talent wise. He is a generational talent and I watched a lot of Clemson games, I can't say that about any of the other 4 QB's. Every GM in the league would take Lawrence 1st and that is just not debatable, and they are a hell of a lot smarter than me and you. The only way I see him busting is because he goes to the Jackoffs and they fucking ruin him. Outside of the Texans, they are the worst run franchise in the league. But that's ok, love to see it.