And given Ballard’s experience with Urlacher/Briggs, I guarantee that he would see the value there.

LVE has the same measurables as Urlacher did when he came out.

And take a look at who the Bears had at DE in 2012 while he was there.

Idonije and Peppers both 32 yrs old and neither superstars. LB's in this defense are more important than DE's. As are the corners and DT

I can still remember watching Urlacher live, returning punts in college....unreal

from everything I've seen and read, Smith is undersized but his football IQ and character are off the charts

I'd still like to see the Colts pick up a CB somewhere along the line--maybe with one of their 2nd rounders if he's the BPA at that slot--but it sounds like he'd possibly need to be more of a zone guy (?)

Hernandez may move up into the first round. Wynn may too. But I'd be mildly shocked if both of them do, along with McGlinchey and Williams (and, of course, Nelson before all of them).

I guess all 5 could go first round, but that would definitely push some promising guys down to the top of Round Two if they did.

You’re underrating the difference of the playing surface. You can get away with an older, slower pass rush on that shot field in Chicago. You can’t at LOS. They need a stud pass rusher too.

BTW, Peppers is a first ballot HOFer.

Yes in his prime.... he was 32 in 2012

In 2012, Peppers had 11.5 sacks and was a Pro Bowler. 2012 was his best year with the Bears.

And regardless of how he played the Bears paid him a lot with the expectation that he be a top DE. LB is important but not more important than DE.

My only modification to that list is that instead of Hernandez, we need at OT.

If we had to play meaningful games today, our top candidates for right OT are Good, Haeg and Clark in that order.

If we had to play meaningful games today, our top candidates for OG are Mewhort, Slauson, Haeg, Good, Clark and Vujnovich in that order.

We need OT help more than we need OG help for 2018, IMO.

So, instead of Will Hernandez, I would take Brian O'Neill, Jamarco Jones, Kolton Miller or Tyrell Crosby; whomever the Colts scouts had highest available.

Walk Worthy,

Agreed, VJ can get off of my team, and out of the OT prospect listed, O'Neill intrigues me the most.

I think chances are good that Hernandez will end up a better player than any of the OTs in this class.

The need is greater at tackle, but those players are inferior to Hernandez. Don’t reach.

Pass rushers are always harder to find and more valuable than linebackers. Chubb can rush the passer and plays the run well. It doesn't matter if he would have been the 6th pick or the 15th pick last year, he still would be more valuable than a linebacker. You need a franchise QB in this league and you need pass rushers who can disrupt the opposing franchise QB. Without that, your defense will struggle.

I like those LB'ers you mentioned as well. If Ballard goes that route, then I'm fine with it, but we need pass rushers.

Disagree. He draws comparisons to Joey Bosa and Mario Williams. I can't think of a draft class where he wouldn't be in the Top 5 discussion and the top 10 players. Last year's pass rusher/DE class was loaded and if you put Chubb up for comparison, only Myles Garrett would rank ahead of him.

Yep, if Chubb is there you run to the podium. If not, entertain all offers.

I like Smith a lot in our type of defense. Give him some good DT's in front of him and he could have a Ray Lewis type effect.

LVE doesn't have the instincts Urlacher did coming in. But he did get better the more he played. He just needs experience and and in a couple years could be a very good LB.

The Colts will get a WR and a CB in the first four picks. But there are some good CB's in this draft and some will fall. You could get maybe a Carlton Davis in the 3rd or a Perry Nicholson in the 6th.

I like Wynn better than Hernandez. Wynn can play three positions on the line and has good technique and big ole butt (means he can anchor and stop a bull rush in its tracks).

I agree. Two linemen I like a lot, that I do not hear about, are Brian O'neil and Braden Smith. Both are very good athletes and I think are under the radar a bit. O'Neil was a former TE and can really move with good feet. Smith is very strong and has very good technique. As a combo I think they could fix the right side permanently and you would have to spend as high a picks as the other guys.

I would avoid Miller, I think he is too tall and maxed out technique wise. I also think the pats will take him in the first.

I disagree on Chubb, the guy broke all of Mario Williams records. He had 100 solo tackles in his career, 200 with assists, and had 54 plays behind the line of scrimmage. That is about 2 plays a game made behind the line of scrimmage. That is huge effect on a game and likely drive killing plays just from him alone. That's a major impact, not many guys come into the NFL with that kind of impact and teams would love to have a guy that can do that on the field.

Now, would I trade back and take those players with those picks? Yes I would. I don't know if Smith and Edmunds makes it to 12 though. I would take Ward there though and feel great about it. And then hope Hurst, Tavon, or Landry make it to 22.

There are still a lot of good LB's we can have later in the draft. Darius Leonard, Malik Jefferson, Uchenna Nwosu, Tegray Scales, Jerome Baker, Fred Warner, Shaquem Griffen, Tre Williams. Thin all these guys could play in our system. I really like Leonard with one of our 2nd rounders.

Sleeper: Airius Moore

Our lack of free agency moves makes me believe they want as many picks as they can get. I think Buffalo is a major potential move, but Denver, Cleveland, and NY are potential partners for them.

I think that, if anything, it's more likely at this point that both Wynn and Hernandez will be gone before #36 than it is that they'll both be there. I'd be happy with either one. I expect at least 5 OLs will go in the first round.

Not sure I'd take O'Neill early 2nd round--it sounds like some scouts STILL regard him as "a TE playing out of position" and I don't know how that would work long-term in the NFL. But a 6' 6" 300-plus kid who can run a 4.82 40 is certainly intriguing.

But I'm hoping by #36 the BPA may be a DB, WR, or maybe an LB if one drops out of the 1st round with all the QBs, OLs, etc. going in Round One.
And, with any luck, maybe B. Smith drops to #49, where IMO he might be a better value than any OL the Colts could draft at #36 (assuming Wynn and Hernandez are both gone by then).

Reich should know ho that worked out, (Lane Johnson). The other comp I've heard O'Neill compared to is Nate Solder.

I would take a Lane Johnson / Nate Solder type OT at the top of the 2nd round in a heartbeat.

Both those guys have been solid/good almost every season of their careers.

That is the type of OT we need on the roster to hold down right OT for the next couple of years and perhaps, perhaps, be able to take over for Castonzo when he starts slowing down.

I really hope we get someone at the top of the 2nd round (or McGlincy if we are trading down in the 1st round) who can lock down right OT for us in 2018.

Walk Worthy,

Someone is going to fall, someone’s always does. Smith had a medical red flag come out so he is falling a bit.

for me, it would depend on who else is available there. I'd be surprised if O'Neill's rated the 36th or 37th BPA at the time of the draft, and I'd expect some possibly higher-rated DBs and WRs would also be there, maybe even a higher-rated LB.

But maybe the DBs available there wouldn't be a good fit for Eberflus' defense, and I'm not completely sold on this group of WRs, so if Ballard chose O'Neill (or maybe Rankin if he's there) at one of those 2 picks, I guess I wouldn't be terribly upset. Especially if Wynn and Hernandez were both already gone. The Colts need help at so many positions, especially with the switch to the 4-3. Maybe one of the "first-round" DLs slips to #36 or #37.

I also wouldn't be at all upset if Ballard chose B. Smith at #49 if he were still available there.

@HolderStephen
Just a side note on Colts/Roquan Smith or any other possible Indy pick: Their defensive selections will skew heavily toward speed. I cannot emphasize this enough. Trust me.



I for one will miss seeing Antonio Morrison and the rest of Grigson’s picks that are too slow for the NFL...

Still drafting for need. Your gonna be disappointed. It will be BPA

It should always be a mix of BPA, need, and positional value at that draft spot. The Colts have enough needs that they have a lot of options to almost truly go BPA though, outside of QB.

Sherck is a strictly need drafter

No one drafts purely BPA. The best GMs draft at the best intersection of BPA and need, with a strong weighting toward BPA.

Need sways the choice if the players are close in grade, that's my opinion. Draft slot come into play if talking top of first round

Yep, if teams were drafting strictly BPA, 3 or 4 QB's wouldn't be going at the top of this draft.

I believe this wholeheartedly. Ballard likes big and fast if possible. I'm still trying to figure out if he likes Smith or Edmunds better as a LB.

QB is the only position you draft for position only.

Only if the grades are very close. Otherwise he will take BPA. There are holes at every position on this team. Can only hope QB isn't one of them

And if our top 4 choices in the 1st and 2nd rounds are RB, WR, TE and SS because those are BPA, then the draft will be a complete failure no matter how good those 4 guys are in their NFL career.

Luck will be killed in 2018 behind an O-Line that NEEDS more talent and our defense will be killed due to lack of pass rush and quality LBs.

It is always a combination of Need and BPA. Always.

I talk about the guys that I want to draft because while I see lots of holes on the roster, some holes are MUCH deeper than others. If we don't fill in those holes then the rest of the team will just not matter much.

Regardless of where the Colts have their draft board, right OT is one of those deep holes, IMO. It needs to be filled and if it can be filled with a kid whom has the potential of coming in, starting day one and being compared to 2 guys whom have had pretty good NFL careers, then that, to me, is worth an early 2nd round pick.

You call it drafting for need, I call it smart team building.

But, I don't have enough data on Ballard to know for sure what kind of drafter he is.

Hooker was a BPA pick. Safety was not a top position of need; Mike Adams was returning from pretty good 2016 season, Clayton Geathers was fully expected to recover from his injury and we had drafted T.J. Green in the 2nd round just the year before. While most were thrilled he was still available because he is projected to be a stud, safety was not a #1 concern.

Wilson was both a BPA and need pick. We needed CB help and he was drafted right around when he was projected.

Basham appears to be purely a need pick. Very few mock drafts had him going in the 3rd round.

Mack and Banner? Both filled needs and both were picked right around where they were projected to be picked. Who knows BPA?

Not enough data. There appears to be a fair amount of "need" rolled into all of Ballard's "BPA" talk.

Walk Worthy,

Every position on this team has needs. Won't matter who Ballard picks. If it's BPA it will fill a need

You have on most occasion talked about taking Chubb at 6 then looking for a guard or OT in the second and then looking for RB in the 4th etc. paraphrasing. But that is completely picking by need which makes you reach.

Let me ask you this. When was the last time a draft went as you hoped?

BPA isn't this brilliant idea you seem to think it is. "Best player" isn't something most teams are going to agree on. It's best player on their own board. When they set up that board, they take their own roster, scheme, and philosophy into account. A team like ours will not value a 340 lb two gap NT the same way a traditional 3-4 team would. Therefore a NT ranked in the 40s by us might be a top 12 player for another team.

Team fit matters. No GM ever sets out to draft a "best player" that doesn't fit their team.

I’d throw out tiers of players being a factor as well. If you have a RB as the top rated player on your board, but you have 3 other RBs with relatively similar ratings do you take that top rated back? What if you are confident one of those 4 similarly rated RBs will make it to your next pick, but there is only one similarly rated guard and then a huge drop off? A smart GM probably takes the guard.

The bottom line is that any GM that goes strictly BPA or strictly need is going to be a bad GM. There is more to building a team than just acquiring talent. At some point you have to put the talent on the field and it has to mesh.

2016 was a draft that went as hoped.

2x O-Linemen in the first 3 rounds.
Safety, LB, DT all 4th round picks or better
But yet 2x more O-Lineman as depth

We were screaming for O-Line help in 2016 and that draft "delivered." The safety in the 2nd round was a head scratcher as I was hoping for a defensive front-7 guy but Grigson talked him up so much that I said what the heck.


Now, obviously, the results ended up being underwhelming. Kelly has been fine when healthy and Haeg has played much better than your typical 5th round draft pick. I think Ridgeway will shine in a 1-gap system.

But Green, Clark, Morrison, Bates and Blythe? Yeah....

But 2016 pretty much went according to my plan. I had hoped that we were going to get 2x O-Line starters out of it (Kelly, Clark) with at least one quality backup (Haeg) and that, along with a healthy Mewhort would have made the O-Line a positive position on the theam.

That did not pan out but I was pleased with the draft at the time.

Now, I completely understand that you are going to come back and analysze every pick and say that they were "need" picks and thus sucked. And I don't have a ton of response to that other than "Grigson sucked in talent evaluation (and just about anything not involving the cap)."

So, there it is...


Walk Worthy,

So, it has been widely conjectured that if BUF wants to move up for a QB to our current #6 spot, it would take their #12, #22 (or 2019 1st round pick) and their first pick of the 3rd round # 65. Total points for that are 2,245 vs 1,600 for our #6 pick.

NE now has two 2018 first round picks after trading away Cooks to LAR and one of the conjectures is that they are looking for a QB. To get to a point value similiar to what is being said about the Bills, they would need to trade:

#23, #31, #43 (2nd round), # 63 (2nd round) and #95 (3rd round)

OR

#23, #31 and 2019 1st round draft pick


Would you trade the #6 overall for 2 1st round picks, 2 2nd round picks and a 3rd round pick?

If Ballard would do that, it would mean that the #3 overall pick in the draft would turn into:

#23 (1st round)
#31 (1st round)
#37 (2nd round)
#43 (2nd round)
#49 (2nd round)
#63 (2nd round)
#95 (3rd round)

+ 1 2019 2nd round pick (NYJ)

1 premier prospect versus 8x 1st/2nd/3rd round good prospects

Thoughts?

Walk Worthy,

I am all for trading back again. Lot of Chubbies around here for Chubb but I would prefer adding the 8 players ... :cool: