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Cody Benjamin offers his rat's ass of an opinion on the L'Jarius Snead trade.




3 Reasons Why the Chiefs Got So Little From the Titans for Their Super Bowl Champion Cornerback

(By Cody Benjamin)

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/l...on-cornerback/



1) ) The Chiefs weren't set to pay Sneed long-term.

2) ) Sneed is older (27), and his star replacement is already in place.

3) ) CB is a volatile position, and it may be losing some value.

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Well, if it makes you feel any better, I've gone down the same counterfactual thinking road about Andrew Luck on the '23 Colts. In fact, I've also done it with the '19, '20, and '21 teams and they all make me want to cry.

I was stating that Ballard and Polian run teams similarly, and that the method they use is generally the most successful one across the league. The Chiefs are one of the teams that run their franchise in a similar fashion, at least in my opinion.

I brought up the Tyreek Hill trade because it is the type of difficult decision that well run franchises sometimes have to make, and I truly believe that most Colts fans would demand Ballard's head on a pike if he made a move like that, even if it was the right move to make.

I agree with the idea of taking smart, calculated risks, but the ones that you and I think make sense may not be the ones the front office thinks make sense. I probably wouldn't have traded the 13th pick in 2020 for Buckner, but that was a good move. I wanted Hunter, and it was reported that the Colts had the better offer, but players get to choose where they go in free agency.

Also, you keep saying Ballard is an "above average" drafter, that's like calling Peyton Manning an "above average" QB. Ballard is a better drafter than Polian, who is among the best drafters of all-time and whose drafting put him in the Hall of Fame. You don't get rid of that over small irritations.

Catching up on this one. Here's my .02 on several of the things being discussed:

Ballard - No question that Ballard is a MUCH better GM that Grigson, but damn near anybody would be b/c Grigson was completely incompetent.

I think we need to pump the breaks pretty hard on this Ballard is a better GM than Polian talk. When Ballard's teams start reaching Super Bowls (or have any playoff success at all) then I think we can maybe start having that conversation. As far as just drafting goes - I mostly agree w/ Chaos that you can have the conversation, but I do not agree that it's an absolute fact that Ballard is a better drafter. On top of just the amount of all-pros and HOFers that Polian drafted, you have to consider that most of his HRs were at premium positions. Whereas Ballard's haven't been. Something else that you have to consider is that during Polian's tenure the salary cap was more restrictive w/ no rookie salary limits in place, which made it much harder to keep your own and likely led to really good players like Mike Peterson, David Thornton, Steve McKinney being allowed to walk. Something else about Polian is that he tended to be more proactive is drafting replacements 1-2 years ahead of time (Diem and DeMulling in '01 are really good examples of this) while Ballard tends to wait until the vet leaves and tries to replace them w/ a rookie.

Overall though I do think Ballard is a good GM. He definitely drafts well. I do think his reluctance in FA and the fact that he gets scared shitless anytime another team is involved in pursuing a player is concerning. Let's say in a couple of years we're 1-2 players away and could fill that need(s) via FA. Based on his history I doubt Ballard will actually go for it and end up trying to fill the need(s) via the draft as always, which could lead to us missing our window.

Sneed - I'm pretty disappointed that he ended up at Tenn and not here, especially considering that they got him for peanuts w/ draft compensation. He did get signed to a big contract, but it wasn't outrageous. $19M AAV is tied for 7th most at CB and $55M guaranteed is 5th most at CB, which IMO isn't unreasonable considering his production and how much the cap went up this year.

Offseason so far - I would give us a C/C+ so far. It's great that we re-signed most of our own and added some depth at NT. But as of now arguably our weakest area (secondary) is actually weaker w/ the likelihood of losing Blackmon. We really need to replace him w/ a vet and IMO sign a vet at CB as well. Relying on mostly projects, 2nd year guys, and rookies in our secondary is a recipe for disaster IMO. We also need to add weapons in the passing game on O, but I suspect those will come in the draft.

I think quoting Diem and DeMulling as drafting replacements is stretching things a little. Diem possibly, he was a 4th round pick who you think will be good depth and maybe become a potential starter, but DeMulling was a 7th rounder flyer, who no-one really knew would become a replacement starter. Could just as easily have been a cut candidate.

Definitely disagree on Diem. I think Polian definitely drafted him w/ the thought of replacing Meadows, which he did end up doing. I also think DeMulling was more than a flyer as Polian was pretty good at drafting IOL in the later rounds or bringing them in as UDFAs. On top of DeMulling there was Jake Scott, Lilja, obviously Saturday, etc.

Either way there was a clear pattern under Polian of drafting replacement players at least 1 year ahead of time, which allowed them to develop and be evaluated. Another example is David Thornton being drafted in '02 and replacing Peterson in '03. I can list several of these (including ones that didn't work out), but the point being is that IMO this is a better strategy than relying on rookies to come in and produce right away which is what Ballard tends to do.

Starters by draft:

1998
Peyton Manning
Jerome Pathon? (I wouldn't count him, others might)
Steve McKinney

1999
Edgerrin James
Mike Peterson
Hunter Smith

2000
Rob Morris
Marcus Washington
David Macklin

2001
Reggie Wayne
Ryan Diem
Rick DeMulling

2002
Dwight Freeney
David Thornton

2003
Dallas Clark
Robert Mathis
Cato June

2004
Bob Sanders
Jason David

2005
Marlin Jackson
Kelvin Hayden
Tyjuan Hagler

2006
Joseph Addai
Tim Jennings (though he wasn't really a quality starter as a Colt)
Freddy Keiaho
Charlie Johnson
Antoine Bethea

2007
None

2008
Jacob Tamme
Pierre Garcon

2009
Jerraud Powers
Austin Collie
Pat McAfee

VS

2017
Marlon Mack
Grover Stewart
Anthony Walker Jr.

2018
Quenton Nelson
Shaquille Leonard
Braden Smith
Zaire Franklin

2019
Bobby Okereke
Khari Willis
E.J. Speed

2020*
Michael Pittman Jr.
Jonathan Taylor
Julian Blackmon
Isaiah Rodgers
*Traded 13th overall pick for DeForest Buckner

2021
Kwity Paye
Dayo Odeyingbo
Will Fries

2022**
Alec Pierce
Jelani Woods
Bernhard Raimann
Nick Cross
Rodney Thomas

2023**
Anthony Richardson
Julius Brents
Josh Downs
Blake Freeland
Jaylon Jones

**These drafts are too early to tell, players who have received significant playing time and/or performed well were included.

Added some guys you missed from the Polian drafts, and if we're counting Isiah Rodgers then we should probably count some relatively productive part time starters who Polian drafted like Brad Scioli, Larry Tripplett, etc..

Also, despite you notating that it's too early to tell I think you're still trying to count your chickens before they hatch from the past 2 drafts (especially w/ including Cross on that list). Of course I hope you're right on all of them.

Admittedly Polian's drafts definitely declined when he started handing the reigns over to Chris after '06, but the fact that Polian has several HOFers and all pros at premium positions (even if you exclude Peyton) I would still give him the edge over Ballard. Which isn't a knock on Ballard at all. As I stated earlier he does draft well.

I'll throw this in. To draft starters on teams that are perpetually 12 to 14 win teams is a lot different than drafting starters for 4 to 9 win teams.

That's an excellent point!

I can see that argument, but i would counter it with having to pay the highest amount of money to your QB, means you have to find cheap draft picks and undrafted free agents to bulk out your roster, as you can't sign many others.

Bashir was not a good starter and was replaced before the end of his rookie contract, same with Doss. I'll admit I missed Session.

Basically at this point in time, with Ballard having about 5 less draft classes, the deciding factor right now would whether or not Anthony Richardson becomes a superstar.

That's the effect of having a franchise QB, not good drafting.

Doss was actually let go b/c of injuries and was more productive during his time w/ the Colts than either Willis or Blackmon. Bashir was a little less productive than Willis and Blackmon (at least per game) but still pretty comparable. He was let go b/c we had Doss and Sanders. Here's their stats w/ the Colts (apologies for the format).

GS Tackles Solo Sacks TFL INT FF
Bashir 51 234 165 0 3 5 3
Doss 42 268 205 1 11 7 6
Willis 33 219 161 3.5 7 4 1
Blackmon 46 214 163 1 12 7 2

And it's more than just Peyton vs. AR. Other than Peyton through 6 drafts Polian had drafted a HOF RB, HOF DE, a should be HOF WR, an all-pro DE (and maybe HOFer), and an all-pro TE.

Through 6 drafts Ballard has selected all-pros at OG, OLB, and RB. Q could maybe make the HOF but Leonard won't, and JT probably won't either.

Again, not knocking Ballard. The guy drafts well. But IMO he has a ways to go to be as good as Polian was (Bill, not Chris). It certainly isn't a known fact that Ballard's a better drafter like you claim it is.

Edit: you also need to admit that you forgot Jake Scott.

I wanted to point that out, good call. But I would have framed it more like...

This ^^. Besides comparing a complete vs. incomplete resumé, it makes it really difficult to compare given the QB situation.


@Norm: Good call on some of those overlooked Polian guys. Maybe compared to the 1st-round success rate, but I don't think mid-round stuff is that bad. And that doesn't take into account his undrafted FA (which I know is kind of a separate thing).

How many big time free agents did Polian sign? There weren't that many that i can recall, Booger and then from memory I am struggling to think of anyone else, i have probably missed someone.

He had the QB and obviously a lot of major players on the roster as well, like Harrison, Wayne, James, Freeney, Mathis, Saturday, Glenn etc. But were people complaining about the lack of activity in free agency then? Or did they just accept that the salary cap had already pretty much been spent on keeping our own. Which is a bit like where we are now with the contracts issued to the likes of Pittman, Taylor, Nelson, Kelly, Smith, Franklin, Stewart and Buckner.

As much as i love Bill Polian as a GM, from about 2004 where we drafted
Sanders, there would not be many names on that list that non Colts would remember (McAfee, but not from his play). I am not sure that there is a single player drafted that made a pro bowl? Maybe Addai, Bethea?

Corey Simon might've been the biggest name free agent he ever took a shot on. And he has said that situation did nothing to assuage his apprehension about signing big free agents.

Other than that, you're talking Booger McFarland, Chad Bratzke, maybe Jeff Burris. Never a truly big-time FA that I remember.

Well, that standard probably left to the elite players.

But yes, Addai was a PB, Bethea was a PB for us and SF, and McAfee was and All-Pro who was arguably the best in the league for a while.

And again, it's kind of a separate thing, but there's also the undrafted guys like Saturday, Brackett, Rhodes, Bullitt, Terrence Wilkins.

Yeah, I knew there were some guys Dam had left off, but it's been 20+ years so you can't really blame him too much for that. Another thing is Polian was pretty unlucky on some of his mid round picks from his earlier drafts. EG Green showed that he would have been a really good WR if he could have stayed healthy, Joseph Jefferson always looked pretty good the few and far between times when he was healthy, and of course there was the Brandon Burlsworth tragedy :( I realize all GMs have this happen though, which obviously includes Ballard.

Actually Booger was an in season trade, which we probably wouldn't have won the SB if we wouldn't have made it. I had forgotten about Burris.

Polian went pretty heavy in FA in '99. Bratzke was a big FA signing and was one of the top FAs that year. He also gave some relatively big contracts to Cornelius Bennett and Chad Cota. There were some other guys he signed as well, but names escape me as it's been 25 years.

After that Polian signed some mid level guys (Montae Reagor comes to mind), but yeah Corey Simon was really the only big name FA. Even though long term it didn't work out it was still worth taking the shot and worked out in the short term IMO. Unfortunately for us the season got derailed and then Simon decided to sit on his ass and eat twinkies all offseason.

Oh we complained back then too. Not as much though if I can recall, especially during our peak. I think the difference was that (at least in our peak) we didn't have the gaping holes in the roster coupled w/ entering FA with shit tons of cap space under Polian like we have had the past few years under Ballard. Granted a lot of that cap space has gone towards re-signing our own, but I think seeing that number adds to the frustration.

As Chaos mentioned Addai, Bethea, and McAfee were all pro bowlers. I would have sworn that Garcon was as well after moving on, but it turns out he wasn't. He did lead the league in receptions w/ 113 for 1,300 yards one year.

Some good post '04 picks were obviously Constanzo, both Kelvin Hayden and Marlin Jackson in '05 who were both really good CBs that had injuries derail their careers. The fact that Marlin Jackson made probably the biggest play in Indy Colts history makes him a good pick just for that IMO. Hell people always bash the Anthony Gonzalez pick, but he was actually pretty productive his first 2 seasons. Then he had the freak knee injury during the season opener in '09 that pretty much ended his career.

The statistics don't tell the whole story, I will always remember Mike Doss for the butt fumble level stupid play he made against the Bucs, who were defending world champions at the time, when he intercepted the ball, then inexplicably fumbled it, which Keenan McCardell picked up for a TD. The 2 things I remember Blackmon for are the game winning turnover he created in OT vs. Aaron Rodgers's Packers and how his absence in the last game of this past season likely cost the Colts the division. Bashir vs. Willis might be a wash statistically, but I recall Bashir being a bad starter on bad defenses and Willis being an average starter on average-good defenses. As for Isaiah Rodgers, I'd consider him comparable to a David Macklin type.

As far as all-pros, I think it's at least worth mentioning that Ballard used significant draft capital to acquire an all-pro DT, who had his all-pro season with the Colts. That would make the count 6 to 4, in about half the draft classes for Ballard. Incidentally, Wayne didn't make a Pro Bowl until his 6th season and didn't make all-pro until his 10th season, so look out for Pittman on that front.

I don't think you're knocking Ballard, I think it's a good debate, and good for us as fans that it's one that can be had.

Argh, how could anyone forget the great Jake Scott? I mean, other than both of us a couple of times.

Regarding Sneed, I heard two Nashville media personalities express concern about the fact the trade has not been officially completed, as Sneed has not yet inked the contract. Their concern is that the knees are a bigger issue than what was known, and that the Titans want a waiver as an out of the guaranteed money, and Sneed is not willing to sign it. if so, I am glad we passed on him.

I remember that play as well, but one bad play doesn't a season or career make. Doss made plenty of good plays too w/ the Colts that made up for that and more. One that sticks out to me was against the Jagoffs early in the '06 season when Doss made a game ending int on what was a potential game tying drive from them. At any rate he had a really good rookie season (sans the Tamp pick/fumble) and was productive with the Colts until his ACL tear in '06, and the stats back that up.

Blackmon's a good player. No argument from me there. I saw that we've re-opened talks with him. Hopefully that leads to us re-signing him.

Bashir had his struggles his rookie year on a terrible D '01. Our D did get better in '02-'04, and Bashir was relatively productive. He was obviously nothing great, but IMO if you count Willis then you have to count Bashir.

Fair point on Buckner and we'll see on MPJ. He's certainly capable. Like Chaos said it's pretty tough to compare a complete vs. incomplete resume. FWIW I don't think we'll see the drop off in draft quality w/ Ballard since he's younger than Polian was, and I don't see him trying to pass the reaigns anytime soon.

To be fair I only forgot to give you shit about missing him :D. Scott was a damn good draft pick. He was a 5th rounder started 9 games for us his rookie year then went on to be a 16 game starter for each of the next 7 seasons for us and the Tits. Guessing the injury bug finally caught up to him the next season b/c he only played in 7 games (all starts) and that was it. Still don't know why we chose to keep Lilja over him.

Where's that from? Really like to see him back.

Wasn't Stokely a FA before joining the Colts?

He was. Not much production in BAL. Of course, aside from exploding in '04, he kind of had 4th-option type numbers every other year.

Comments from Brett Kollmann:

https://x.com/BrettKollmann/status/1845855513176838586


https://x.com/BrettKollmann/status/1845869581770076242

Sneed got flat out abused yesterday. By all 3 of the Colts receivers. He gave up the touchdown to Pitt, the 34 yard PI to Pierce, and I lost count of how many times Downs roasted him.

Sneed had a terrible no good very bad day.

I always thought that Trent McDuffie was the better CB anyway. Apparently the Chiefs thought so as well.

McDuffie has been elite since coming into the NFL. Sneed may have benefited from having elite play around him and a good DC who knew how to mask his deficiencies.

Glad we didn’t resign him. Teams always over value free agents. Unless it’s a job that translates to any defense/offense I’d pass.