I just looked at some mocks and it seems the majority of them expect all defensive picks in the first 5-6 spots, and Rashan Gary is projected at 4 or 6 very commonly. I just don't get that. I guess we'll see.

It's early in the process. At this time last year people were projecting Arden Key as an early first rounder, he eventually was picked in the 3rd. Just one example.

Agree.

In Jan / Feb, it is all about physical traits.

By March and the combine, the physical traits are all known and it starts being about who "projects" better to the NFL.

By April, it becomes much more realistic with the QB needy teams uptalking their hopeful future franchise QB and the offensive skill / secondary players whom have just killed it during the whole process rising.

I just hope Ballard and staff apply the same process as last season to this season and find another 3 quality starters (Nelson, Smith, Leonard) and 3 quality depth guys (Hines, Wilkins, Turray/Lewis) along with a handfull of solid depth guys and developmental (Cain, Fountain, Adams, Franklin).

Is that too much to ask? :)

Walk Worthy,

This isn't quite accurate. Most mocks had Key as an early 1st rounder early in the 2017 season. After he had some injuries and poor performance, few mocks had him as a 1st rounder by the time of the Senior Bowl.

Is 13 months ago close enough?

https://draftwire.usatoday.com/2017/...as-presents/2/

Key mocked 13th overall to the Dolphins.

The projection someone who would draft Gary that high would be making is J.J. Watt. The measurables are comparable, but the production isn't.

Fair enough. Maybe I was thinking of after the combine when some of the character concerns started coming out. He really fell off once teams took a closer look. Though, I think Gary will probably be a different story. He should shine at the combine, so he'll probably cement himself as a top 15 pick.

this post is fucking dumb

I wonder why he called Nelson a sixth round pick.

You understand that there was no way to guarantee this beforehand, right? The last two guards to go top ten before Nelson were Jonathan Cooper and Chance Warmack, both of whom flopped miserably and never even came close to living up to their top ten draft status. Both of them were All-Americans and hyped up as great players like Nelson was. Even discounting that and assuming he was going to be elite (which would've been a foolish assumption beforehand), an elite OG hasn't been worth as much as an elite DE, WR, LT, LB, DT, CB, etc. in the NFL over the last 10+ years. Considering 16 of the top 20 contracts for offensive lineman belong to LTs, and LTs don't get paid as well as the other positions I listed, it would seem that is a well established point among NFL GMs. That makes drafting a guard that high an even bigger risk. Fortunately it worked out, but no one could've known that Nelson would have a bigger impact as a rookie than any OG in the past 10+ years on draft day.