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-   -   On the Effect of Coaching (http://www.coltfreaks.com/forum/showthread.php?t=26798)

ATrain 11-23-2017 11:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dam8610 (Post 42159)
It's cheating, plain and simple. They were caught redhanded, they were never properly investigated, they never fired Ernie Adams, and they're probably still doing it. Variance, random chance, and talent level is why they don't have more.



I've been lurking on the site and have been tempted to post for awhile now, especially when I read comments like these. But it's also these comments which have kept me from doing so, bc I know it's quick sand of illogic. People keep struggling and struggling to apply logic, but the more one struggles, the deeper one sinks into a bottomless pit. yet it is so hard to resist because the need to talk sense pulls one in despite the knowledge that it's a waste of so much time and energy.

But fuck it, here goes: your position is that coaching doesn't matter, it has virtually no impact. That the Patriots stumbled over themselves into five super bowls, like the proverbial monkeys in a room who accidentally type out war and peace. That the fact the saints went to pieces the year Payton was suspended was just a coincidence.

Let's say all that is true. Then why do you fight the proposal to fire this coach?? If coaching doesn't matter, you should be ambivalent towards the idea, shouldn't you? In fact, you should be pushing to get rid of all coaches on the Colts payroll and use that money to sign more talent!

If you said that, at least it would follow some semblance of logic. As it stands, you are backing yourself into a corner and saying things you can't possibly believe all because you just don't want to admit you got this one wrong.

No need to respond, I hate trying to get sand out of those nether regions...


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Dam8610 11-24-2017 12:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ATrain (Post 42303)
I've been lurking on the site and have been tempted to post for awhile now, especially when I read comments like these. But it's also these comments which have kept me from doing so, bc I know it's quick sand of illogic. People keep struggling and struggling to apply logic, but the more one struggles, the deeper one sinks into a bottomless pit. yet it is so hard to resist because the need to talk sense pulls one in despite the knowledge that it's a waste of so much time and energy.

But fuck it, here goes: your position is that coaching doesn't matter, it has virtually no impact. That the Patriots stumbled over themselves into five super bowls, like the proverbial monkeys in a room who accidentally type out war and peace. That the fact the saints went to pieces the year Payton was suspended was just a coincidence.

Let's say all that is true. Then why do you fight the proposal to fire this coach?? If coaching doesn't matter, you should be ambivalent towards the idea, shouldn't you? In fact, you should be pushing to get rid of all coaches on the Colts payroll and use that money to sign more talent!

If you said that, at least it would follow some semblance of logic. As it stands, you are backing yourself into a corner and saying things you can't possibly believe all because you just don't want to admit you got this one wrong.

No need to respond, I hate trying to get sand out of those nether regions...


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The mistake you're making is assuming I care about them firing Pagano beyond the chance that it creates to get one of the horribly bad head coaches that will actively hinder the team. I don't, as I've stated numerous times.

Puck 11-24-2017 12:54 AM

Hey Dam

https://youtu.be/6i7VKQwDS2s

ATrain 11-24-2017 01:00 AM

On the Effect of Coaching
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Dam8610 (Post 42305)
The mistake you're making is assuming I care about them firing Pagano beyond the chance that it creates to get one of the horribly bad head coaches that will actively hinder the team. I don't, as I've stated numerous times.



Lol so you want to keep a horribly bad coach to avoid the possibility that there's a chance the next one will also be bad?

That's like saying you'd rather keep the syphilis rather than get it cured bc then you'll risk having sex again and might get HIV.

Edit to add: you're contradicting yourself now. You just made a case that coaches don't make much of an impact. Players play, and talent wins out. that's what determines success or failure. So unless you mean that the next coach won't play a healthy Andrew luck and will only put the bare minimum players out on every play, a coach can't actively hinder a team based on your own argument in this thread.

Is that your concern? That a coach might do things like hurry up and run a play so as not to be able to challenge a call that his RB went out of bounds when the replay shows he scored? Or that he will run a play where there's only one person lined up on the line to block on a fake punt? Or he will bench good players for not focusing on special teams while trotting out the worst special teams units in the league? I know, these are all far fetched things that a coach would never do, so it's hard to hypothesize... [emoji849]

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Dam8610 11-24-2017 02:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ATrain (Post 42309)
Lol so you want to keep a horribly bad coach to avoid the possibility that there's a chance the next one will also be bad?

That's like saying you'd rather keep the syphilis rather than get it cured bc then you'll risk having sex again and might get HIV.

Edit to add: you're contradicting yourself now. You just made a case that coaches don't make much of an impact. Players play, and talent wins out. that's what determines success or failure. So unless you mean that the next coach won't play a healthy Andrew luck and will only put the bare minimum players out on every play, a coach can't actively hinder a team based on your own argument in this thread.

Is that your concern? That a coach might do things like hurry up and run a play so as not to be able to challenge a call that his RB went out of bounds when the replay shows he scored? Or that he will run a play where there's only one person lined up on the line to block on a fake punt? Or he will bench good players for not focusing on special teams while trotting out the worst special teams units in the league? I know, these are all far fetched things that a coach would never do, so it's hard to hypothesize... [emoji849]

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I don't agree with your premise that Pagano is a horrible head coach. Horrible head coaches have career records well below .500 and do things like make key players want to leave the team.

ChoppedWood 11-24-2017 08:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dam8610 (Post 42314)
I don't agree with your premise that Pagano is a horrible head coach. Horrible head coaches have career records well below .500 and do things like make key players want to leave the team.

Horrible head coaches do what Puck showed you... re-posted for emphasis:

https://youtu.be/6i7VKQwDS2s

At the end of that it's very unfortunate that the camera pans away from Pags. I have talked to several guys present for that play and they said that as they were coming off the field he told them he was sorry, they were in the wrong variance and he didn't see it in time to get the TO. Fucking stupid variances, always fucking shit up!

I was thinking about asking for some golf clubs for Christmas, instead I think I will ask Santa for some new variances.

FU Dam!

Racehorse 11-24-2017 08:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dam8610 (Post 42305)
The mistake you're making is assuming I care about them firing Pagano beyond the chance that it creates to get one of the horribly bad head coaches that will actively hinder the team. I don't, as I've stated numerous times.

If coaching doesn't matter, what would it matter who we replaced the Clap with?

Racehorse 11-24-2017 08:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dam8610 (Post 42314)
I don't agree with your premise that Pagano is a horrible head coach. Horrible head coaches have career records well below .500 and do things like make key players want to leave the team.

He is trending that way.

HoosierinFL 11-24-2017 09:28 AM

Shit article.

1. The statistical analysis he links to is talking about luck, though he really means randomness, and it shows that 52% of wins can be attributed to random factors, and 48% are not accounted for by random factors.

But the article Dam linked mis-interprets the article and claims that the 48% is explained by player skill. The original author makes no such claim and in fact, there is no reported methodology in either article to explain how to statistically analyze team performance into player factors vs. coaching factors.

2. The fundamental attribution error occurs when we observe the behavior of others and over-estimate the role of dispositional traits to explain their behavior. Dispositional traits are things like personality, ability, etc. So if make a dispositional attribution toward a team, we would be claiming that their success (or failure) is due to internal factors like player skill OR coaching ability. If we instead made a situational attribution, we would attribute their success (or failure) to external factors like strength of schedule, officiating, etc.
This theory does not address leadership, AT ALL.

3. The illusion of control may apply but it really depends on context. Obv as the author from AFA suggests, it would be wrong to blame Harbaugh for Cundiff's missed FG. But at the same time, practice serves a purpose, it is meant to improve play and reduce mistakes. A team that makes many mistakes has either of two problems, 1) really bad players that don't get better with practice, or 2) really bad coaches who are ineffective at running a practice session.
So here, we can't eliminate bad players, but neither can we eliminate bad coaches, as explaining mistakes. In short, this becomes a non-point.

However, it might be possible to quantify team mistakes. It's difficult without knowing playcalls and assignments, but counting drops, missed blocks, abandoned gaps, miscommunication in the secondary. If this was possible to do in an objective way then coaches could be compared in terms of the number of mistakes their teams make, and this could then be used to compare coaching records.

He's also wrong about the Dungy narrative. The idea that he couldn't get it done in the post-season stuck with him after coming to Indy, and it still lingers because people say we should have won more than 1 Superbowl with Peyton Fucking Manning.

(and for the record, I actually have a PhD in experimental psychology which includes statistics)

sherck 11-24-2017 03:15 PM

Hoosier, well said!

You should post more often; raise the quality of the boatd by a ton!

Walk Worthy,

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