Article on WR's that will be available outside the 1st round

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300...irstround-pick

I'm partial to Aiyuk and Hamler. To me Aiyuk at 34 would be a steal.

I like Hamler. He could be a scary skitterbug player that impacts special teams too.

I think Reagor will be drafted lower than he should because he didn't have a good Qb throwing to him.

I'm wary of Aiyuk, but I want guys that are good route runners. I feel like we get these athletes that don't know the intricacies of routes and it takes three years to teach them.

Love might be rising into the top ten.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300...ve-into-top-10

Yes, I want the best if I'm trading up for him. Yes if I want my QB upright at the end of the season. Yes, if I want a 10 year LT and as an owner I want to sleep at night

Me too! Whoops, you were talking about football. Damn!

Ok, you get one dad joke for the day. You're cut off.

I just don't see it. He makes big highlight plays, and his supporting cast hurt him a lot last year, but he misreads and misfires way too often. If a team spends a top ten pick on him, they'll probably regret it. If the Colts take him at 13, I'll be worried and hoping for the best.

I hope we spend money in free agency in such a way that it frees us up to take an OT with our first pick. I want the line to stay dominant. Castanzo signing for only one year worries me. It is very hard to get a good left tackle thru free agency or in later rounds. There is no obvious answer at quarterback which is why every damn qb is somehow associated with us. It will be interesting how Ballard goes about constructing this team

If Castonzo was leaving maybe. But you don’t spend a first round pick, and number 13 at that, on a player that won’t even start for a few years. There is too much talent in this draft to pick a non starter. And we had a dominant oline last year and it got us 7 wins. I think this fanbase might be putting a little too much emphasis on oline.

Don’t know, the mantra now is coach these guys up. Is he Mahomes or Winston? Most of his turnovers and bad decisions happened in the second half when his team was behind and he was playing hero ball to keep them in it. If his junior and senior years were swapped would you feel better about him as a prospect?

I wouldn't be opposed to this (post combine) mock draft.

Don't know if the author is a Colts fan or what.....


https://thedraftnetwork.com/articles...l-sikkema-2020


He has the Colts staying put at Pick 13 and drafting........Tua :eek: :cool:

And then selecting Neville Gallimore at Pick 34.

I think you’d start a rookie at RT and slide Smith in to RG. I’d take a QB or DT over OT if someone worth the pick is still there, but otherwise I like OT. The next major need is obviously WR, but the talent pool is so deep this year you should be able to get a good prospect outside the 1st round. If they are going to draft a QB this year or next I don’t want a young QB starting with a rookie or subpar LT.

Yes, that would not break my heart. :cool:

Of course, but that doesn't mean that we should just ignore that the quality of his play has gone down considerably over the last season. I understand the "hero ball" concept for a team like LSU, but he was making the same bad reads and mistakes against Nevada. I don't think I'd be comfortable with him at 13.

Honestly, you can never put too much emphasis on the O-line.

And a rookie picked at #13 would start immediately. At right OT. Sliding Smith inside to right OG would upgrade two positions and make our line even better while giving us a quality 6th man in Glowinski (assuming Haeg gets paid in free agency to leave us).

We are one OT injury away from offensive line turning into a liability and you talk about too much emphasis on O-line??

That's the dream. Throw in a WR at 44 and that's a great first 2 rounds.

Like Laviska Shenault?

Swap Aiyuk for Shenault and I'm down with that draft.

Tua won't be there at 13.

I like Smith at RT, he does well there and I believe he is one of the top rated tackles in the league. The rookie would have to supplant him or earn it I hope. Otherwise there is no need to disrupt two positions. More likely the rookie would play at guard then that would mean we spent two high 1st round draft picks on guards. And the entire line is just about 1st rounders, which is kinda overkill. I like having a good line too but not to the detriment of other position groups. WR needs a serious talent upgrade and TY is not getting younger or healthier. I get tired of watching our QBs sit and wait forever for a receiver to get open. DL needs a 3-tech and do we have a dominant pass rusher? Do we have a shutdown corner?

I would understand if Castonzo retired but he didn’t, and we can upgrade guard with a lower pick. Now if I thought Castonzo was leaving next year, then I could see an argument for it. Guess we can see what his contract is like.

All teams are an injury away from the oline or position group falling apart. It is hard to build depth in the league. And if a team has it, it is likely because they have their top talent on a rookie contract. we lost because other position groups need help, not because the oline needs more high end talent.

I won’t have an issue with a WR at 13, I’m just not sure WR will be the best value with the depth available at the position in this draft.

How much sense it makes for overall team building to me largely depends what they’re overall offseason plan is. If they switch to win now mode, sign Rivers, AND spend money on other meaningful FAs then I agree that WR makes more sense. However if we are still in build through the draft mode and not aggressively trying to compete this year then I see more long term value at OT than WR. Yes we have AC, but we also have a pretty clear indication that is probably a year to year proposition. Smith may be a good RT, but he struggles with speed rushers and just is not a viable option at LT. And even the run game sucked with AC out. I just don’t like the unknown at LT with grooming a QB. I understand the concerns about the investments in the OL, but to me you can’t let that dictate what you do at LT. The position is way to important- especially to the success of a young QB.

To me LT is a foundational position along with pass rusher and QB. But I don’t like investing a high 1st in a guy that isn’t guaranteed to start next year. And what if Castonzo decides to stay four years? That guy may never see the position he was drafted for during his rookie contract. Ballard will go BPA. If one of the BPA’s match a need then they will go there. Only thing that will change that is if they like a QB in this draft.

And lots of RTs struggle with speed rushers, he is still very good. I don’t see the position needing fixing especially with our other pressing needs.

WR is very undervalued on this board. We have little talent at the position. We have to scheme guys open. They really need to get a few playmakers in there. It is a deep draft, but the top of it is very talented and could be number one receivers out of the box. Which is really what we need.

I want to be clear - I wasn’t knocking Smith or even suggesting he needed replaced at RT. The weak spot on the line is RG. My comment was just to highlight that I don’t think he’s a viable option to move to LT. We don’t have anyone I’d feel comfortable with at LT for an extended period besides AC. I’m aware that with the lack of quality LTs in the league that’s certainly not unusual though.

I understand your point about Castonzo. We don’t really have any idea where his head is, but hopefully Ballard does. My fear is they draft a young QB to sit this year and Castonzo retires next year. Entirely possible I’m being too cautious about it, but I hate the idea of a young QB and subpar or even rookie LT. It doesn’t just suck for that year, it can affect the QBs development significantly. Hopefully Ballard has a better indication where ACs head is and we aren’t subject to 3-4 years of will he or won’t he questions.

I also agree on the need for help at WR. As I said, if Ballard is spending money and trying to seriously win this year then WR definitely trumps OT as far as needs. I guess I’m just not sold that is Ballard’s plan, so overall I’m looking at this as the best way to support a young QB and weapons come third to me behind protection and defense.

Either way it isn’t a huge deal. They need help at multiple positions and with 3 picks in the top 44 and tons of cash, they should be able to fill several holes.

You can say that about any position.

Yeah it’s not an ideal situation and I don’t know if there is an ideal
solution. I guess the safe play would be to draft one of the top four LTs if one is available. The only DT I’m sold on is Kinlaw, I actually think Brown will be a bust or not as good as his draft position. The top couple of receivers, a QB, or maybe a chance on a freak Edge like Chiasson.

Agree that Kinlaw is the ideal addition. They desperately need a DT, but I wouldn’t complain about Chaisson either. He’d be pretty good replacement for Sheard. They need more DL talent wherever they can find it.

Agree on Smith, just cant overlook that he is a naturally a guard. I think we need to pick up a tackle in FA, and draft one. Let those two compete for RT and move smith to guard. If we cant get a serviceable tackle from FA and draft, we have the luxury of moving smith back to RT.

Then we can keep grooming one of these guys to be Castanzo's replacement. I agree we don't know where his head is, but I think we can only reasonably expect one more season from him. We need to look for a quality tackle in FA, and a 3rd rounder in the draft. Lets go after Conklin or Peters.

From what I've seen of Smith at RT, he is playing at a level equal to or better than Ryan Diem played for the Colts.

That's good enough for me. But, yeah we need to draft a quality OT in the first few rounds of this draft, because of the Costanzo uncertainty as to how long he will play and because of the need for an upgrade over LaRaven Clark.

Ian Rapoport‏Verified account @RapSheet ·

Source: The #Colts are releasing veteran DT Margus Hunt, a starter over the last three seasons.

With this happening puts DT on Ballard's radar. Kinlaw I hope :cool:

Mike Garafolo‏Verified account @MikeGarafolo

The NFL will proceed with its Draft on Apr 23-25 but will canceled public events in Las Vegas. The league is exploring innovative ways for how the process will be conducted.

:cool:

So this is an interesting mock draft and might challenge conventional wisdom. This is a mock where they emphasize the passing game and the components that influence it.

Analytics mock draft

So there are some concepts behind this draft that they have taken from the league analytics:

On defense

• DT's and offensive interior linemen are devalued so you see a guy like Derrick Brown fall hard.
• Only 34 DT's played at least 600 snaps last year. Defenses average about 1000 snaps. That means 1 guy per team is playing 60% of the snaps on the interior.
• At 300+ lbs guys just can't stay fresh on the interior, so you are not playing every snap. so you are not providing value.
• Rushing from the interior is very hard, you face double teams, it is easier to scheme a player out. Only a few guys like Fletcher Cox, Arron Donald, Chris Jones kind of defy that rule. Does Kinlaw fit into that group?
• You get more value drafting an edge player because they are on the field more, so more attempts. On passing downs you might be better off just playing four edge players.
• Derrick Brown hasn't shown the measurables for a dominant pass rushing DT, he would be more valuable a decade ago as a run stopper who is ok at pass rushing.
• Quinnen Williams had one of the most dominant college seasons at DT ever, he was very average last year. (Given rookie DT's rarely blow up)
• In 2018 the Bucs took Vita Vea and the Skins took Daron Payne over Derwin James. Derwin James has had a much greater impact.
• Even edge high picked edge players are not going to change the complextion of the team. The team goes as the QB goes. Case in point is the Browns, Myles Garrett is great, but the team only does well if Mayfield does well.

On offense

• Quarterbacks are very valuable, especially QB's that are accurate with quick decision making. Sorry Jalen Hurts, not your stengths.
• WR's are very valuable because they directly affect the passing game.
• WR's that can get open on their own are the most valuable of those WR's.
• The Colts had the 2nd worst receiving group last year.
• The OT's that are most valuable are the ones with a positive win rate in the passing game.
• Notice offensive line is devalued somewhat. That is because you can scheme around defiencies on the offensive. Example is the pats who went from Trent Brown to Isiah Winn and it wasn't a huge problem. They have had good lines and bad lines. What their success is tied to is whether their WR's can get open. They had a bad receiving group in 2019. But in the 2018 AFC title game the Chiefs came in with the best defensive pass rush in the league, but the pats beat it by just throwing quick and short. They were able to do it because their outside players could get open under 2.5 seconds.

You know this board hates PFF, right?

Well I'm new here.

Revisiting Kiper's earlier comment about this WR draft class. He was way off on the "25-30 WR's in the first 3 rounds"......but was really close on his predictions for Round 1 (5 WR) and Round 2 (8 WR). He predicted 13 WR's in the first two rounds and there were 13 WR's in the first two rounds (there were 6 selected in Round 1 and 7 in Round 2)


https://twitter.com/MattLombardoNFL/...79116676239360

https://twitter.com/FieldYates/statu...10311597207555

That's still a ton. Hopefully this class brings some improvement to the position. Despite the hype the last couple of years, I still feel like the classes have been lacking.

After 40+ years of doing this Kiper is a lot more accurate than he was early in his career.