Absolutely not to giving additional value to Buffalo. You throw the value chart out the window when a team is moving up for a QB.

Totally agree. Also there is no way in a trade down scenario that I am willing to come out of the 1st rd. without 1 of the 2 top LB's, in Smith and Edmunds.

Aside from missing on Chubb, my biggest fear is staying at 6, taking Barkley, and missing on one of those LBs and the potential to add another quality pick.

Let's just say Barkley and Nelson are still there at 6 and the Bears will give you 8 and 40 to move up for Nelsen. You probably get Smith and Michel with those two picks and I think those two will provide more value than either Barkley or Nelson on their own.

Yeah, Chubb or additional 1st or 2nd round picks.

GM's never truly "throw the value chart out the window," and I think in this case it also depends on WHICH of the QB's might be available at #6. For Darnold or Rosen, maybe the Bills would be willing to give more than they would for bigger gambles like Allen or Mayfield.

I think you underestimate Buffalo’s desire to get one of the 4 QBs. The moves they’ve made this offseason tell me that they are desperate to get one of them. If three are already off the board, lack of supply drives up the price.

I can sort of understand if a sloppy Darnold or a brittle Rosen somehow falls to #6, but if I'm Buffalo's GM I want more than just #6 for a project like Allen or a gamble like Mayfield.

I've even read anonymous quotes from some NFL scouts suggesting that they don't feel there's that much of a drop-off from Allen and Mayfield to guys like Jackson and maybe even Rudolph. (But I've also seen where some scouts said they wouldn't draft Rudolph until the 3rd round.)

If Ballard can persuade Buffalo to do a straight-up deal of #6 for #12 and #22, more power to him. But IMO Buffalo would be giving up too much for (at least) 2 of the 4 QB's being mentioned.

Then again, if Chubb or Nelson is still around at #6, all trade discussions may become moot.

I'm all for Barkley if both Cubb and Nelson are off the board and there isn't a line of team to offer a good package for the pick. At the very least he's about a sure fire talent as this draft has.

Then again I could just be getting nostalgic for the Edge days.

We already know they were offering 12 and 22 to get to three with a chance at either the 2nd or 3rd QB. Either way, I think it’s moot because Dorsey will get them to pay an arm and a leg to get to #4.

You guys are forgetting that there is a "mystery 6th" candidate that Ballard is said to think is a game changer in addition to the top 3 QB and top 3 non-QBs (Chubb, Barkley, Nelson) that he is presumed to not want to miss out on by trading out of if he's still on the board at pick 6. I don't see him trading down to 12 if one of these 4 guys is on the board at 6 unless it is a truly exceptional haul if the word about the "mystery 6th" man is accurate (reported by Kevin Bowen and others),

Hopefully he'll draft Chubb and we'll never know who that is.

the most likely guy I could think of would be Fitzpatrick, who resembles Ronnie Lott in his potential to be All-Pro at BOTH cornerback and safety. Maybe Edmunds, although I don't regard his youth as a potential plus so much as a negative that would have to be addressed. Some people get excited about what he might be in 3-4 years, but I'm more interested in who can contribute to the team NOW, while Luck is still in his (potential) prime.

Could also just be scheming from the Colts to tell teams they are more likely to pick at 6 in order to drive up potential trade offers.

You may be right. I don't see Hooker being ready for TC, and even if he his I doubt that he's going to be as effective as he was in the past.

Fitzpatrick could fill that FS hole for the time being and then move to slot corner when Hooker is 100%.

Edmunds will be the pick

That’s who I’d assume as well. Ballard is rebuilding the roster and is looking at a long term plan. I don’t think his age will override his potential for the Colts.

Maybe the mystery guy is Isaiah Oliver. I just saw Kollman's film room on him and was pretty impressed. Never heard of him but he looks impressive.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_stSvqc4gMk&t=490s

from everything I've seen and read, Oliver would still be available later in the 1st round. Sounds like Ward may go before Oliver, FWIW.

No doubt Edmunds is a physical freak who comes from a program that prepares defensive players for the NFL about as well as anyone in the FBS. But he won't even turn 20 until after the draft and to me that's a factor for consideration. It means he likely won't mature physically OR mentally for a few years. But when he does, he might well turn into his generation's Lawrence Taylor.

If he's Ballard's pick at #6, that's legit (just like Chubb, Nelson or Fitzpatrick would be IMO). But it would tell me the Colts may not be 100% confident Luck is back, or ever will be, to the level he played at when he first came into the League and, as a result, the team's immediate future will have to take a back seat to more long-range plans, whether that's with Luck or even with Brissett.

This is so wrong about Luck, many said that the Colts trading back to #6 shows they are confident Luck will be back.

I'm not sure the one has that much to do with the other: my impression is that the Colts trading to #6 says they think Luck will probably be back BUT they are willing to go with Brissett if he isn't, and they thus don't really have a "QB problem" that's anywhere near as urgent as their problems with the offensive line and the overall defense.

The existence of a 4th player the Colts rate in the top tier of non QBs made the 6th pick a perfect landing spot on a trade back. The only way Luck factored into it at all is that his arm hadn’t fallen off. Thats the only way the Colts plan for the draft would have changed. I don’t see Brissett factoring in at all. Agree with it or not, Ballard has a long term plan to build the roster. I don’t think the short term QB situation factors in at all.

that's essentially what I'm saying: between Luck's rehab and Brissett's play (which I do see as an additional factor) the Colts apparently feel confident that QB is one position that doesn't require immediate attention--unlike OL, LB, WR, DB, RB, and DL.

Especially when (at the time, anyway) it looked like Chubb would still be available at #6. And he may still turn out to be, but if not Nelson (or Fitzpatrick or Edmunds) should be.

The most fascinating hypothetical to me would be: what if one of the QB's and Barkley both fell to #6? And what if, as a result, another team made a trade offer that Ballard felt would allow the Colts to add draft picks AND still get Edmunds or Fitzpatrick? (I'm assuming in this scenario that the reason both Barkley and a QB fell to #6 is because Chubb and Nelson both went in the top 5)

that could make things a bit crazy on Draft Day. Maybe the 49ers really like Edmunds...until they look up and see Barkley sitting there at #6 and they offer Ballard #9 and....etc, etc.

I think someone would have to pay a pretty big premium to get Ballard to move off his spot and risk missing one of his big 4. But with QBs involved that is always possible.

I’d love to know who the 4th player is and how Ballard ranks them. Fans heads may explode if Chubb is available and Ballard passes on him for his mystery player.

I think some are going to be very surprised. I think if Chubb is there Ballard may trade the pick. I think he wants his Urlacher for this defense and that is Edmunds

if I were forced to guess, I'd guess Edmunds because, at his young age, he may well have the biggest upside of any player, defensive or offensive, in this entire draft. Including guys like Barkley and Allen.

I personally feel Fitzpatrick would have an even bigger impact, sooner, but maybe not as much 3-4 years down the road. It's not out of the question to think that Edmunds could develop into an even more effective pass rusher, from more places on the field, than Chubb will. Plus, there are some scouts who evidently like James as much as, or even more than, Fitzpatrick.

And the problems with my previous "49ers scenario" are 1) it's entirely possible that Tampa Bay and Chicago, at #7 and #8, would happily draft Edmunds and Fitzpatrick before we ever got to the 9th pick, and 2) the 49ers don't really have a lot to offer other than #9--their next pick IIRC is #59.

But it would make for some fascinating melodrama. Maybe if the Bears hadn't drafted Trubisky, and the Colts were sitting there at #6 with either Allen or Mayfield available AND Barkley available, the trade with the 49ers could make sense. Niners get the generational RB/receiver to go with Garoppolo in Shanahan's offense, Bears get potential franchise QB in Allen or Mayfield, Colts still get Edmunds AND another 2nd round pick.

Or maybe Tampa Bay throws a monkey wrench into the whole process then by still drafting Edmunds 7th?

Lance Zerlien who is one of Ballards buddies and predicted the trade to six. Seems to have inside info a lot. He says it's Edmunds and say he would take home at 6 over Nelson.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300...for-josh-allen

I love Nelson but it's worth remembering that

1) he's a generational talent at an OL position that is probably less important than tackle in the NFL's current pass-happy status--and a great pass-rusher usually can impact a game/team in even more ways than a great guard can;

2) there are other very promising guard prospects in this draft (if anything, more of them than there are tackles) and at least one of them will likely be on the board at#36, if not even later (Hernandez, Wynn, B. Smith, etc)

Here is my biggest fear. There are only 2 legitimate MLB prospects and they are Smith and Vander Esch. We probably don't get either.

As far as my conceded the rest of the MLB prospects are garbage.

Smith could be the next Derrick Brooks and Vander Esch the next Brian Urlacher.

Yes I know Derrick Brooks wasn't a MLB.

not sure I see Smith at MLB given his height and weight--think he's likely more OLB than ILB. Although, come to think of it, he's about the same size as Singletary was.

FWIW, Malik Jefferson may be available in the 2nd round and has all the measurables to be a good MLB, but he didn't really set the world on fire at UTexas, for whatever reason. Of course, you could probably say that about a number of Texas' players over the past few seasons.

Edmunds doesn't play anything like Urlacher.

Move back to 12 and 22 and you might get both.

What about Evans?

That would be stupid

He's fine as a 2 down ILB. He doesn't fit the defense that Eberflus is installing.

as much as the Colts need LB help, it seems unlikely they'd draft 2 in the first round.

on the other hand, I can see the draft unfolding so that, at #12, Smith IS the "BPA" and, at #22, LVE is as well. And if Ballard really is a BPA guy then I guess he would go ahead and draft those 2, and maybe hope one of the OL's (Wynn, Hernandez, O'Neill, Rankin?) and possibly one of the CB's (Oliver, Alexander, Jackson, Davis?) are there at the top of Round Two as BPA's as well.

Or one of the WR's, but I'm ambivalent about this group of receivers. Seems to be considerable quantity, but I'm not sure how much quality. Some big guys who may not run all that well, some fast guys with too many drops and/or lack of blocking ability. Would be nice to take some of the load off of Hilton, if possible.

If someone like Kirk or maybe Sutton is still there at the top of Round Two, I guess I'd give them a look, but otherwise I'm not sure there might not be a WR available at #49 or even #67 who's just as good as anyone earlier. Or another OL, or maybe a promising but under-achieving DT like Hand?

I would like to say that, that is insane, and we don't need both. But, sadly we do need both, and if Chubb is gone, I would probably do it.

Can you imagine the Colts defense w/Vander Esche at MIKE and Smith at WILL? We quickly go from the least athletic LB corps in the NFL, to arguably the most athletic.

There are WR's that can be had in the 3rd or 4th round that would fit in nicely, DaeSean Hamilton and Simmie Cobbs are a couple, just off the top of my head.

maybe a speed guy like Cain or Chark would still be there in the 3rd round; don't know if they'd last into the 4th round or not.

also St. Brown, though to me he's another guy (like Hand) who checks all the boxes on paper but sort of under-achieved in college--but some might argue that was a function of the offense he was in, not as much his own doing.

it's kind of a strange WR group this year: lotta guys I look at and go "mmmmaybe...." but no one (possibly even including Ridley) who really jumps out and says "sure-fire day-one starter" or "if he's still there at #36 or #37, ya gotta grab him"---especially given how many good OLs and DBs there are in this draft.

I would be extremely happy with something like this in the first two rounds:

Roquon
Vander Esch
Will Hernandez
Hubbard
Michel

Trading back for the 12 and 22 and Getting one of of Edmunds or Smith at 12 and then getting one of LVE Fitzpatrick James Landry Hurst Ridley Hernandez at 22 is smarter than taking Chubb.

Some of you are over infatuated with Chubb. He's good... he is not clearly the best player in the draft. And in previous drafts wouldnt even be in the discussion for the 6th pick.