He's got to have a really good season to give any other team the encouragement to throw stupid money at him.

This is a young team, with a good front office and pretty good staff. The only place that can offer him stupid money is a team that sucks and has a lot of cap space.

So, assuming he has a good year, he may get some traction in the league. He can make a lot of money here, and win if he and the team can be creative and smart about years, incentives, all the fun stuff Ballard will need to use. But the Colts have an inside track.

If he wins here, he will be inclined to stay here

The bold is basically what I'm saying. I'll just throw out this deal as an example so you know what I'm talking about:

5 years (2019-2023), $100MM, $50MM guaranteed
-2019: $35MM (fully guaranteed)
-2020: $20MM ($15MM guaranteed)
-2021-2023: $18.3MM per year ($0 guaranteed)

A deal like this would give Brissett a ton of money upfront, while also protecting the team in case he sucks (cut after 2020 or 2021) or is good enough to extend (major savings in 2021-2023 vs what he could potentially cost). The only real cost is the huge 2019 cap hit, but the team has a ton of room anyway. Even if they think Brissett turns out to be a 2020 stopgap, he would be cheaper under this deal than the franchise tag in 2020 ($25MM).

I see that as how Dr. Spaceman sees it--you're trying to pay up now to have him bail the team out of a jam yet expecting him to not be good enough to be a long-term solution (which if it were me would be seen as an insult) OR hoping to lowball him on the back end of the deal (which is also a bit of an insult--thanks for exceeding our expectations, now here's a paycheck well below what you've EARNED from such good fortune) when if he just let it play out and bet on himself, he'd probably see about as much money anyway--unless his ceiling is a decent backup--at which point the team should've just waited for him to prove it.

Sorry, but I just can’t see this happening. Ballard’s built up a pretty good reputation during his short tenure in Indy, and if he signs an unproven Brissett to a contract paying him a guaranteed $35M next year I think people would start thinking he’s a lunatic. If Brissett surprises everyone and becomes a Pro Bowl QB next year, Ballard would be vindicated, but short of that he’d most likely end up looking like a fool.

I know its appealing to lock up a young player at a bargain price before he blossoms, but I think you need to be very judicious about which players you do this with. Paying Brissett that kind of money would essentially force us to commit to him as our most important player for the next two years, and I personally don’t see the track record to justify that and so, to me, it would just be reckless.

Couldn't agree more, he hasn't proven jack shit yet.

This entire thought exercise is predicated on the notion that the team actually believes he is a Top 20 QB. If they aren't sure in that regard, then scrap the entire idea.

I want to see if Brissett steps up in the playoffs before I pay him. I loved watching Luck play because he was a physical freak who made plays that just seemed unbelievable. Objectively, however, he wasn't as good a playoff qb as he was in regular season. Quarterback rating are not the be all but Luck's drop off from regular season was much more pronounced that either Manning or Brady (a class we all thought he belonged in). Manning/Brady both dropped about 6 points on rating from regular season to playoffs, Luck dropped 16 points. I want a qb that thrives in playoff atmosphere and is devastated when we lose. I want a sore loser as my qb. I have no idea if Brissett is that guy but want to know before we sign him long term.

I wouldn't read much into those stats. Most seasons, the team around Luck in the playoffs wasn't any good. I bet if you controlled for his regular season rating against other top tier teams, the rating would be pretty similar.

You may be 100% correct about those stats. I'm an old school type of guy and never liked that Luck was such a good loser. Being happy with a guy and patting him on his ass for beating your lineman and sacking your ass just never sat well with me. I may be showing just how out of touch I am and football has left me behind.

Luck was certainly different, but different doesn't necessarily mean better or worse. I think all of us forget that perspective from time to time.