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(CHARGERS vs. CHIEFS, 12/16)


With 3 seconds left to play in the 1st half, the Chargers went for it on 4th-and-goal from the Chiefs' 1-and-a-half yardline ...... and the pass was batted down, incomplete.

No points for the Chargers on the final play of the first half.

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The Chargers just went for it again on 4th down, by passing a 45-yard field goal attempt ...... and they were again stopped.

No points for the Chargers on their first drive of the second half.

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Well, that's 6 points now.

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The Chiefs just returned one of those favors ...... they went for it on 4th down and 1 from the Chargers' 2 yardline, and didn't get it.

Both teams are leaving points on the board wholesale in this game.

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They were playing madden Lastnight, go for it every time

Which is why NFL coaches dont come from Madden.

Colts v ravens in 06. Dungy had Viniteri kick 5 field goals and won. You Never pass up a scoring opportunity.

The primary reason they won that game was because they held the Ravens to 6 points - not because they kicked field goals. Kick a lot of field goals against a prolific offense and you’ll often lose. Context of the game matters.

For reference 19 teams currently are at 50% or better 4th down conversion rate. Last year 24 teams finished 50% or better. Considering the point differential between a touchdown (with extra point) and a field goal it’s no wonder the analytics often disagree with you.

They gave up. 9 points for 0. Great strategy.

Ahh yes, the hindsight defense. Very popular. More teams should employ it - see what the results are then make your decision. But what if I point out games where the 4th down conversion and scoring TDs instead of FGs were the deciding factor? Would you change your mind? Probably not since the question would be which is more likely to occur. I know! We should analyze how likely each event is to occur and how likely they are to contribute to victory using math and a lot of historical data. We could call it analytics or something!! I think we are on to something. This could be extremely valuable for NFL coaches!! Of course hindsight users will always hate it since hindsight has proven to be a superior analysis tool commonly used by NFL fans.

People also often don't take into consideration the butterfly effect.

If you lose by 2pts... People point to that first quarter field goal miss as the reason you lost.

When really, if you made the field goal, all subsequent series of events would be different. You actually could've lost the game by 14pts had you made the field goal. Or you could've won by 10pts. We don't know.