2020 draft thread

[smitty46953]

Personally out on a limb prediction but I see Dolphins trading the 1.05 & 2.07 to the Lions to insure that they get Tua Tagovailoa.

Then the Lions trading the 1.05 to the Colts for the 1.13 & 2.02

Colts then take Justin Herbert leap frogging the Chargers @ 1.06 to do so?

Give Herbert this season or part of it to learn and step in for Jacoby next year or earlier should Brissett falter.

WORKING ON A 1ST ROUND MOCK :eek:

[HoosierinFL]

I've went hot, cold, and then hot again about Love.
I feel like I still want Kinlaw more than any QB not named Burrow.

[smitty46953]

I've went hot, cold, and then hot again about Love.
I feel like I still want Kinlaw more than any QB not named Burrow.

I don't think Kinlaw falls past the Jags at 1.09 :cool:

[Chromeburn]

We should have traded up for Simmons last draft. That's who I wanted. Kinlaw might not make it.

Its such a deep draft at WR we could get good ones later on. But I think Jeudy is the safest pick in the draft. I think he will be a 10 year vet at least and a multiple pro bowler. I like the comparisons to Marvin Harrison, the guys routes are just outstanding, he is always open, always.

[rcubed]

But I think Jeudy is the safest pick in the draft. I think he will be a 10 year vet at least and a multiple pro bowler. I like the comparisons to Marvin Harrison, the guys routes are just outstanding, he is always open, always.



Might depend who is throwing to him...


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[Chromeburn]

Might depend who is throwing to him...


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True, but if the QB isn’t there, doesn’t mean we can’t get a WR. We drafted Marvin before Peyton. Worked out ok.

[Puck]

I don't think Kinlaw falls past the Jags at 1.09 :cool:


I'd rather trade up for him than take one any of these QB's besides Burrow or Tua

[smitty46953]

I'd rather trade up for him than take one any of these QB's besides Burrow or Tua

I could be wrong, but I like Herbert too... :cool:

[JAFF]

Almost everything is dependent upon whether or not we need a left tackle. If we need a left tackle due to an early retirement you trade up and go get one. Because it doesn’t matter who will be playing quarterback if you get steamrolled every dog on time he goes back to throw.

If Costanzo decides to stay then you trade up if the quarterback that you want is still there within reach in the first six pics.

If the quarterback you really wanted goes really early, can you trade up so that you can get the best pass rusher in the draft who still available.

The Colts have a lot of pics and they have a lot of leverage to go get whoever they want. And I know this may sound crazy but if Drew Brees is hanging around he might want to come back to Indiana I’m not saying I’m just saying

[Chromeburn]

Almost everything is dependent upon whether or not we need a left tackle. If we need a left tackle due to an early retirement you trade up and go get one. Because it doesn’t matter who will be playing quarterback if you get steamrolled every dog on time he goes back to throw.

If Costanzo decides to stay then you trade up if the quarterback that you want is still there within reach in the first six pics.

If the quarterback you really wanted goes really early, can you trade up so that you can get the best pass rusher in the draft who still available.

The Colts have a lot of pics and they have a lot of leverage to go get whoever they want. And I know this may sound crazy but if Drew Brees is hanging around he might want to come back to Indiana I’m not saying I’m just saying

We don’t need to trade up for an LT. There are plenty in this draft. Unless you want the very best one. But we could sit at 13 or even trade down and still get a decent LT in this draft. We could get one in the 2nd, might be more of a gamble. But that’s how many there are this draft.

But everything starts with that QB position. If they trade up, it’s for a QB. If we stay with JB, and don’t draft one, then it’s a rebuild year and probably embracing mediocrity again. If they like love, they might be able to trade back a little and get him. But it starts to get risky there. You fuck around too much and someone will jump in front of you and take your guy. And yeah there is the FA vet route as well. That is a win now proposition.

If they stick with JB and Castonzo retire, we probably draft LT
If we stick with JB and Castonzo stays, we probably draft DT
If we go FA vet QB and Castonzo leaves, we probably draft LT
If we go FA vet QB and Castonzo stays, we probably draft WR

Or we go after a QB in the draft

[YDFL Commish]

Almost everything is dependent upon whether or not we need a left tackle. If we need a left tackle due to an early retirement you trade up and go get one. Because it doesn’t matter who will be playing quarterback if you get steamrolled every dog on time he goes back to throw.

If Costanzo decides to stay then you trade up if the quarterback that you want is still there within reach in the first six pics.

If the quarterback you really wanted goes really early, can you trade up so that you can get the best pass rusher in the draft who still available.

The Colts have a lot of pics and they have a lot of leverage to go get whoever they want. And I know this may sound crazy but if Drew Brees is hanging around he might want to come back to Indiana I’m not saying I’m just saying

You do know that you can swear on this forum...right?

[Puck]

You do know that you can swear on this forum...right?

What the fuck when did that change? MODS... do somthing

[smitty46953]

You do know that you can swear on this forum...right?

No shit? When did that start? LOL :cool:

[Puck]

I could be wrong, but I like Herbert too... :cool:

Not sold on him at 13. Not sold on any of them. Next yr is going to be a good QB yr Way better than this oneIMO Its almost like the Q deal. Build the trenches and get the Q of the Dline

[smitty46953]

Not sold on him at 13. Not sold on any of them. Next yr is going to be a good QB yr Way better than this oneIMO Its almost like the Q deal. Build the trenches and get the Q of the Dline

After Trevor Lawrence (Clemson) and Justin Fields (Ohio State) who should both go in top 4 who is a potential franchise QB? Off top of my head these are the only two. Doubt we are drafting that early. I like Kinlaw too, but Herbert IMO would be the better pick, if not sold on Brissett who is in last year of contract I believe.

Herbert has all the physical attributes to check all the boxes for what NFL teams are looking for in a franchise quarterback. Shows consistency with both accuracy and velocity on passes. Has shown the ability to stretch the field vertically and also fit passes into tight windows. Ball placement is ideal. Knows when to put passes high, when to put them low, when to lead receivers away from contact, etc. Has good mobility and can maintain passing integrity with arm strength and accuracy when on the run.

Rather have him than Brady or Rivers as short term band aids?

[Dam8610]

After Trevor Lawrence (Clemson) and Justin Fields (Ohio State) who should both go in top 4 who is a potential franchise QB? Off top of my head these are the only two. Doubt we are drafting that early. I like Kinlaw too, but Herbert IMO would be the better pick, if not sold on Brissett who is in last year of contract I believe.

Herbert has all the physical attributes to check all the boxes for what NFL teams are looking for in a franchise quarterback. Shows consistency with both accuracy and velocity on passes. Has shown the ability to stretch the field vertically and also fit passes into tight windows. Ball placement is ideal. Knows when to put passes high, when to put them low, when to lead receivers away from contact, etc. Has good mobility and can maintain passing integrity with arm strength and accuracy when on the run.

Rather have him than Brady or Rivers as short term band aids?


What about Bridgewater? He looked like he was well on his way to becoming a franchise QB before a devastating knee injury with the Vikings, he filled in admirably for Brees this past year, and he's only 27. I like him more than any QB the Colts can access in this draft without mortgaging their future completely, and I think the Colts are a playoff team with him at QB before the draft or other free agent acquisitions.

[Puck]

After Trevor Lawrence (Clemson) and Justin Fields (Ohio State) who should both go in top 4 who is a potential franchise QB? Off top of my head these are the only two. Doubt we are drafting that early. I like Kinlaw too, but Herbert IMO would be the better pick, if not sold on Brissett who is in last year of contract I believe.

Herbert has all the physical attributes to check all the boxes for what NFL teams are looking for in a franchise quarterback. Shows consistency with both accuracy and velocity on passes. Has shown the ability to stretch the field vertically and also fit passes into tight windows. Ball placement is ideal. Knows when to put passes high, when to put them low, when to lead receivers away from contact, etc. Has good mobility and can maintain passing integrity with arm strength and accuracy when on the run.

Rather have him than Brady or Rivers as short term band aids?


The kid that is transferring to Georgia is gonna surprise people I think, the first surprise is I can't think of his name right now.

[Puck]

more surprises, I found him.

https://247sports.com/LongFormArticle/Georgia-Bulldogs-Jamie-Newman-transfer-quarterback-reaction-Wake-Forest-141914402/#141914402_1

.https://youtu.be/-oM7HDqvOtg

[smitty46953]

What about Bridgewater? He looked like he was well on his way to becoming a franchise QB before a devastating knee injury with the Vikings, he filled in admirably for Brees this past year, and he's only 27. I like him more than any QB the Colts can access in this draft without mortgaging their future completely, and I think the Colts are a playoff team with him at QB before the draft or other free agent acquisitions.I don't see the Saints letting him walk. If Brees does stay will only be year or two at most. But yes Bridgewater has looked decent filling in. So did Brissett for a stint. Who knows probably end up with Rivers for 2 years and back in QB market again?

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[AlwaysSunnyinIndy]

I don't see the Saints letting him walk. If Brees does stay will only be year or two at most.


This tweet is a few weeks old, but Sean Payton made some remarks in which he didn't think it would be possible for the Saints to bring back all three QB's next season......


https://twitter.com/MikeTriplett/status/1222947543694413824

Most interesting thing I've heard from Payton so far today is he thinks it's "unrealistic" to be able to bring back Brees, Bridgewater and Hill... I don't know if that means he expects Teddy to cost starter $$, though. Wonder what they'd do if he's available at $10M or less again

[Puck]

I don't see the Saints letting him walk. If Brees does stay will only be year or two at most. But yes Bridgewater has looked decent filling in. So did Brissett for a stint. Who knows probably end up with Rivers for 2 years and back in QB market again?

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I'd rather go after Stafford

[smitty46953]

I'd rather go after StaffordReich and Sirriani both have ties to Rivers. I hope he (Rivers) isn't their choice.

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[nate505]

Right now I hope Kinlaw is at 13.

That said the talent at 13 should be such that I don't want to see the Colts trade up to get a guy (baring a trade for Tua, and at that point I think it'll be too expensive) unless the capital used is a 4th round pick at best.

[Dam8610]

I don't see the Saints letting him walk. If Brees does stay will only be year or two at most. But yes Bridgewater has looked decent filling in. So did Brissett for a stint. Who knows probably end up with Rivers for 2 years and back in QB market again?

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Brissett didn't look as good filling in as Bridgewater did, plus Bridgewater has a much better history and track record behind him than Brissett.

[YDFL Commish]

I don't think that anyone can dispute that Bridgewater is an upgrade over Brissett.

The question is, is he a significant enough upgrade to offer him $25 million a year or more...which is probably his market value?

[JAFF]

Brissett didn't look as good filling in as Bridgewater did, plus Bridgewater has a much better history and track record behind him than Brissett.

Bridgewater had some receivers, as in one of the best in the league right now. The Colts best threat last year was Jack Doyle.

I'm not making excuses for Brisset, but I don't know if any back up QB could have done as well with the mess the Colts had at WR

[AlwaysSunnyinIndy]

The question is, is he a significant enough upgrade to offer him $25 million a year or more...which is probably his market value?

FWIW - Bridgewater received two offers last year as a free agent.

the Saints offered a 1 year, $7.25MM + bonus incentives contract
the Dolphins offered a 2 year, $10MM + bonus incentives contract

When he was negotiating with the Dolphins, he reportedly asked for $16MM / year to be their starting QB.

[Puck]

nothing about Bridgewater interests me

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BridTe00.htm

[Racehorse]

I saw a couple of mocks with us getting Love at 34. Do you all think he slips into the second round? I don't.

[Dam8610]

Bridgewater had some receivers, as in one of the best in the league right now. The Colts best threat last year was Jack Doyle.

I'm not making excuses for Brisset, but I don't know if any back up QB could have done as well with the mess the Colts had at WR

If you think Bridgewater can be the starter, you can spend the 13th pick on Jerry Jeudy if you're really worried about T.Y. Hilton's health (which is a valid concern at this point), then invest in the defense.

[Chromeburn]

Bridgewater had some receivers, as in one of the best in the league right now. The Colts best threat last year was Jack Doyle.

I'm not making excuses for Brisset, but I don't know if any back up QB could have done as well with the mess the Colts had at WR

Brisset didn’t end the season with many weapons. But his problems extend beyond that.
He won’t throw to a guy unless he is already open.
He doesn’t throw deep, if he does his timing is off and he misses his window.
He has a strong arm but he doesn’t have it under control and doesn’t throw with touch on his throws enough.
He is unwilling to take chances and takes his outlet too much.
He takes too long to get through his progressions and protection breaks down, with a good line he should get rid of the ball much faster.
I think he finished 24th in the league and that is with a good running game and protection.

He is a below average QB, and once teams started to figure him out he got exposed. I think any QB landing just in the teens would add to our win total. But I don’t think we should be looking for incrementally better. We should be looking for the best QB we can get and make teams worry about whether to defend the pass or the run when facing the offense.

[Chromeburn]

I saw a couple of mocks with us getting Love at 34. Do you all think he slips into the second round? I don't.

No, I think he goes 15-32.

[AlwaysSunnyinIndy]

No, I think he goes 15-32.


Still way early in the draft process but one trade that I think might be worthwhile is to package the two second round picks (Pick 34 and 44) and move up into the first round to gain a second Round 1 pick.

Even accounting for the Day 1 draft day premium, you should be able to snag a selection somewhere between Pick 21 - 25.

Basically do the opposite of last year's trade with Washington.

[rcubed]

No, I think he goes 15-32.



I think he goes 13.


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[AlwaysSunnyinIndy]

https://twitter.com/MattLombardoNFL/status/1230179116676239360

Mel Kiper Jr. Says there will be 25-30 receivers going off the board in the first three rounds, with as many as five in the first and eight in the second rounds, doubling down on this being a historically deep WR #NFLDraft class.

[Chromeburn]

https://twitter.com/MattLombardoNFL/status/1230179116676239360

That's a lot of receivers. 30 receivers evens out to 10 receivers in each round. If only five go in the first, means by the third round, every other pick might be a receiver.

[Racehorse]

That's a lot of receivers. 30 receivers evens out to 10 receivers in each round. If only five go in the first, means by the third round, every other pick might be a receiver.

All those guys will need a good QB to get them the ball. Not all of them will end up with one of those. I just hope whichever one we draft gets a good one throwing the ball. That is Priority #1.

[Chromeburn]

All those guys will need a good QB to get them the ball. Not all of them will end up with one of those. I just hope whichever one we draft gets a good one throwing the ball. That is Priority #1.

I agree QB is top priority. The team starts with the QB.

I do think a good receiver can make an average QB better. I don’t see a QB as a prerequisite for drafting a WR. You might add a better QB next year or in the future. It’s also like saying you should t draft a RB unless you have an offensive line. Regardless of position I believe in adding the best talent you can get. It all contributes to making a better team.

[Racehorse]

I agree QB is top priority. The team starts with the QB.

I do think a good receiver can make an average QB better. I don’t see a QB as a prerequisite for drafting a WR. You might add a better QB next year or in the future. It’s also like saying you should t draft a RB unless you have an offensive line. Regardless of position I believe in adding the best talent you can get. It all contributes to making a better team.

I agree with you, even if you don't think so. We got Marvin a year ahead of Peyton, and that worked out very well.

[Chromeburn]

Nice article on the draft able QBs

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001102745/article/2020-nfl-scouting-combine-biggest-questions-for-top-five-qbs

[Chromeburn]

Article on WR's that will be available outside the 1st round

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001102818/article/nine-instant-impact-receivers-who-wont-cost-a-firstround-pick

[YDFL Commish]

Article on WR's that will be available outside the 1st round

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001102818/article/nine-instant-impact-receivers-who-wont-cost-a-firstround-pick

I'm partial to Aiyuk and Hamler. To me Aiyuk at 34 would be a steal.

[Chromeburn]

I'm partial to Aiyuk and Hamler. To me Aiyuk at 34 would be a steal.

I like Hamler. He could be a scary skitterbug player that impacts special teams too.

I think Reagor will be drafted lower than he should because he didn't have a good Qb throwing to him.

I'm wary of Aiyuk, but I want guys that are good route runners. I feel like we get these athletes that don't know the intricacies of routes and it takes three years to teach them.

[Chromeburn]

Love might be rising into the top ten.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001104092/article/jordan-love-creating-buzz-could-move-into-top-10

[JAFF]

We don’t need to trade up for an LT. There are plenty in this draft. Unless you want the very best one. But we could sit at 13 or even trade down and still get a decent LT in this draft. We could get one in the 2nd, might be more of a gamble. But that’s how many there are this draft.

But everything starts with that QB position. If they trade up, it’s for a QB. If we stay with JB, and don’t draft one, then it’s a rebuild year and probably embracing mediocrity again. If they like love, they might be able to trade back a little and get him. But it starts to get risky there. You fuck around too much and someone will jump in front of you and take your guy. And yeah there is the FA vet route as well. That is a win now proposition.

If they stick with JB and Castonzo retire, we probably draft LT
If we stick with JB and Castonzo stays, we probably draft DT
If we go FA vet QB and Castonzo leaves, we probably draft LT
If we go FA vet QB and Castonzo stays, we probably draft WR

Or we go after a QB in the draft

Yes, I want the best if I'm trading up for him. Yes if I want my QB upright at the end of the season. Yes, if I want a 10 year LT and as an owner I want to sleep at night

[JAFF]

Love might be rising into the top ten.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001104092/article/jordan-love-creating-buzz-could-move-into-top-10

Me too! Whoops, you were talking about football. Damn!

[Chromeburn]

Me too! Whoops, you were talking about football. Damn!

Ok, you get one dad joke for the day. You're cut off.

[Dam8610]

Love might be rising into the top ten.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001104092/article/jordan-love-creating-buzz-could-move-into-top-10

I just don't see it. He makes big highlight plays, and his supporting cast hurt him a lot last year, but he misreads and misfires way too often. If a team spends a top ten pick on him, they'll probably regret it. If the Colts take him at 13, I'll be worried and hoping for the best.

[Oldcolt]

I hope we spend money in free agency in such a way that it frees us up to take an OT with our first pick. I want the line to stay dominant. Castanzo signing for only one year worries me. It is very hard to get a good left tackle thru free agency or in later rounds. There is no obvious answer at quarterback which is why every damn qb is somehow associated with us. It will be interesting how Ballard goes about constructing this team

[Chromeburn]

I hope we spend money in free agency in such a way that it frees us up to take an OT with our first pick. I want the line to stay dominant. Castanzo signing for only one year worries me. It is very hard to get a good left tackle thru free agency or in later rounds. There is no obvious answer at quarterback which is why every damn qb is somehow associated with us. It will be interesting how Ballard goes about constructing this team

If Castonzo was leaving maybe. But you don’t spend a first round pick, and number 13 at that, on a player that won’t even start for a few years. There is too much talent in this draft to pick a non starter. And we had a dominant oline last year and it got us 7 wins. I think this fanbase might be putting a little too much emphasis on oline.

[Chromeburn]

I just don't see it. He makes big highlight plays, and his supporting cast hurt him a lot last year, but he misreads and misfires way too often. If a team spends a top ten pick on him, they'll probably regret it. If the Colts take him at 13, I'll be worried and hoping for the best.

Don’t know, the mantra now is coach these guys up. Is he Mahomes or Winston? Most of his turnovers and bad decisions happened in the second half when his team was behind and he was playing hero ball to keep them in it. If his junior and senior years were swapped would you feel better about him as a prospect?

[AlwaysSunnyinIndy]

I wouldn't be opposed to this (post combine) mock draft.

Don't know if the author is a Colts fan or what.....


https://thedraftnetwork.com/articles/post-combine-mock-draft-nfl-sikkema-2020


He has the Colts staying put at Pick 13 and drafting........Tua :eek: :cool:

And then selecting Neville Gallimore at Pick 34.

[rm1369]

If Castonzo was leaving maybe. But you don’t spend a first round pick, and number 13 at that, on a player that won’t even start for a few years. There is too much talent in this draft to pick a non starter. And we had a dominant oline last year and it got us 7 wins. I think this fanbase might be putting a little too much emphasis on oline.

I think you’d start a rookie at RT and slide Smith in to RG. I’d take a QB or DT over OT if someone worth the pick is still there, but otherwise I like OT. The next major need is obviously WR, but the talent pool is so deep this year you should be able to get a good prospect outside the 1st round. If they are going to draft a QB this year or next I don’t want a young QB starting with a rookie or subpar LT.

[smitty46953]

I wouldn't be opposed to this (post combine) mock draft.

Don't know if the author is a Colts fan or what.....


https://thedraftnetwork.com/articles/post-combine-mock-draft-nfl-sikkema-2020


He has the Colts staying put at Pick 13 and drafting........Tua :eek: :cool:

And then selecting Neville Gallimore at Pick 34.

Yes, that would not break my heart. :cool:

[Dam8610]

Don’t know, the mantra now is coach these guys up. Is he Mahomes or Winston? Most of his turnovers and bad decisions happened in the second half when his team was behind and he was playing hero ball to keep them in it. If his junior and senior years were swapped would you feel better about him as a prospect?

Of course, but that doesn't mean that we should just ignore that the quality of his play has gone down considerably over the last season. I understand the "hero ball" concept for a team like LSU, but he was making the same bad reads and mistakes against Nevada. I don't think I'd be comfortable with him at 13.

[Ironshaft]

If Castonzo was leaving maybe. But you don’t spend a first round pick, and number 13 at that, on a player that won’t even start for a few years. There is too much talent in this draft to pick a non starter. And we had a dominant oline last year and it got us 7 wins. I think this fanbase might be putting a little too much emphasis on oline.

Honestly, you can never put too much emphasis on the O-line.

And a rookie picked at #13 would start immediately. At right OT. Sliding Smith inside to right OG would upgrade two positions and make our line even better while giving us a quality 6th man in Glowinski (assuming Haeg gets paid in free agency to leave us).

We are one OT injury away from offensive line turning into a liability and you talk about too much emphasis on O-line??

[Dam8610]

I wouldn't be opposed to this (post combine) mock draft.

Don't know if the author is a Colts fan or what.....


https://thedraftnetwork.com/articles/post-combine-mock-draft-nfl-sikkema-2020


He has the Colts staying put at Pick 13 and drafting........Tua :eek: :cool:

And then selecting Neville Gallimore at Pick 34.

That's the dream. Throw in a WR at 44 and that's a great first 2 rounds.

[Chromeburn]

That's the dream. Throw in a WR at 44 and that's a great first 2 rounds.

Like Laviska Shenault?

[YDFL Commish]

I wouldn't be opposed to this (post combine) mock draft.

Don't know if the author is a Colts fan or what.....


https://thedraftnetwork.com/articles/post-combine-mock-draft-nfl-sikkema-2020


He has the Colts staying put at Pick 13 and drafting........Tua :eek: :cool:

And then selecting Neville Gallimore at Pick 34.

Swap Aiyuk for Shenault and I'm down with that draft.

[Spike]

I wouldn't be opposed to this (post combine) mock draft.

Don't know if the author is a Colts fan or what.....


https://thedraftnetwork.com/articles/post-combine-mock-draft-nfl-sikkema-2020


He has the Colts staying put at Pick 13 and drafting........Tua :eek: :cool:

And then selecting Neville Gallimore at Pick 34.

Tua won't be there at 13.

[Chromeburn]

I think you’d start a rookie at RT and slide Smith in to RG. I’d take a QB or DT over OT if someone worth the pick is still there, but otherwise I like OT. The next major need is obviously WR, but the talent pool is so deep this year you should be able to get a good prospect outside the 1st round. If they are going to draft a QB this year or next I don’t want a young QB starting with a rookie or subpar LT.

Honestly, you can never put too much emphasis on the O-line.

And a rookie picked at #13 would start immediately. At right OT. Sliding Smith inside to right OG would upgrade two positions and make our line even better while giving us a quality 6th man in Glowinski (assuming Haeg gets paid in free agency to leave us).

We are one OT injury away from offensive line turning into a liability and you talk about too much emphasis on O-line??

I like Smith at RT, he does well there and I believe he is one of the top rated tackles in the league. The rookie would have to supplant him or earn it I hope. Otherwise there is no need to disrupt two positions. More likely the rookie would play at guard then that would mean we spent two high 1st round draft picks on guards. And the entire line is just about 1st rounders, which is kinda overkill. I like having a good line too but not to the detriment of other position groups. WR needs a serious talent upgrade and TY is not getting younger or healthier. I get tired of watching our QBs sit and wait forever for a receiver to get open. DL needs a 3-tech and do we have a dominant pass rusher? Do we have a shutdown corner?

I would understand if Castonzo retired but he didn’t, and we can upgrade guard with a lower pick. Now if I thought Castonzo was leaving next year, then I could see an argument for it. Guess we can see what his contract is like.

All teams are an injury away from the oline or position group falling apart. It is hard to build depth in the league. And if a team has it, it is likely because they have their top talent on a rookie contract. we lost because other position groups need help, not because the oline needs more high end talent.

[rm1369]

I won’t have an issue with a WR at 13, I’m just not sure WR will be the best value with the depth available at the position in this draft.

How much sense it makes for overall team building to me largely depends what they’re overall offseason plan is. If they switch to win now mode, sign Rivers, AND spend money on other meaningful FAs then I agree that WR makes more sense. However if we are still in build through the draft mode and not aggressively trying to compete this year then I see more long term value at OT than WR. Yes we have AC, but we also have a pretty clear indication that is probably a year to year proposition. Smith may be a good RT, but he struggles with speed rushers and just is not a viable option at LT. And even the run game sucked with AC out. I just don’t like the unknown at LT with grooming a QB. I understand the concerns about the investments in the OL, but to me you can’t let that dictate what you do at LT. The position is way to important- especially to the success of a young QB.

[Chromeburn]

I won’t have an issue with a WR at 13, I’m just not sure WR will be the best value with the depth available at the position in this draft.

How much sense it makes for overall team building to me largely depends what they’re overall offseason plan is. If they switch to win now mode, sign Rivers, AND spend money on other meaningful FAs then I agree that WR makes more sense. However if we are still in build through the draft mode and not aggressively trying to compete this year then I see more long term value at OT than WR. Yes we have AC, but we also have a pretty clear indication that is probably a year to year proposition. Smith may be a good RT, but he struggles with speed rushers and just is not a viable option at LT. And even the run game sucked with AC out. I just don’t like the unknown at LT with grooming a QB. I understand the concerns about the investments in the OL, but to me you can’t let that dictate what you do at LT. The position is way to important- especially to the success of a young QB.


To me LT is a foundational position along with pass rusher and QB. But I don’t like investing a high 1st in a guy that isn’t guaranteed to start next year. And what if Castonzo decides to stay four years? That guy may never see the position he was drafted for during his rookie contract. Ballard will go BPA. If one of the BPA’s match a need then they will go there. Only thing that will change that is if they like a QB in this draft.

And lots of RTs struggle with speed rushers, he is still very good. I don’t see the position needing fixing especially with our other pressing needs.

WR is very undervalued on this board. We have little talent at the position. We have to scheme guys open. They really need to get a few playmakers in there. It is a deep draft, but the top of it is very talented and could be number one receivers out of the box. Which is really what we need.

[rm1369]

To me LT is a foundational position along with pass rusher and QB. But I don’t like investing a high 1st in a guy that isn’t guaranteed to start next year. And what if Castonzo decides to stay four years? That guy may never see the position he was drafted for during his rookie contract. Ballard will go BPA. If one of the BPA’s match a need then they will go there. Only thing that will change that is if they like a QB in this draft.

And lots of RTs struggle with speed rushers, he is still very good. I don’t see the position needing fixing especially with our other pressing needs.

WR is very undervalued on this board. We have little talent at the position. We have to scheme guys open. They really need to get a few playmakers in there. It is a deep draft, but the top of it is very talented and could be number one receivers out of the box. Which is really what we need.

I want to be clear - I wasn’t knocking Smith or even suggesting he needed replaced at RT. The weak spot on the line is RG. My comment was just to highlight that I don’t think he’s a viable option to move to LT. We don’t have anyone I’d feel comfortable with at LT for an extended period besides AC. I’m aware that with the lack of quality LTs in the league that’s certainly not unusual though.

I understand your point about Castonzo. We don’t really have any idea where his head is, but hopefully Ballard does. My fear is they draft a young QB to sit this year and Castonzo retires next year. Entirely possible I’m being too cautious about it, but I hate the idea of a young QB and subpar or even rookie LT. It doesn’t just suck for that year, it can affect the QBs development significantly. Hopefully Ballard has a better indication where ACs head is and we aren’t subject to 3-4 years of will he or won’t he questions.

I also agree on the need for help at WR. As I said, if Ballard is spending money and trying to seriously win this year then WR definitely trumps OT as far as needs. I guess I’m just not sold that is Ballard’s plan, so overall I’m looking at this as the best way to support a young QB and weapons come third to me behind protection and defense.

Either way it isn’t a huge deal. They need help at multiple positions and with 3 picks in the top 44 and tons of cash, they should be able to fill several holes.

[Crush22]

We are one OT injury away from offensive line turning into a liability and you talk about too much emphasis on O-line??

You can say that about any position.

[Chromeburn]

I want to be clear - I wasn’t knocking Smith or even suggesting he needed replaced at RT. The weak spot on the line is RG. My comment was just to highlight that I don’t think he’s a viable option to move to LT. We don’t have anyone I’d feel comfortable with at LT for an extended period besides AC. I’m aware that with the lack of quality LTs in the league that’s certainly not unusual though.

I understand your point about Castonzo. We don’t really have any idea where his head is, but hopefully Ballard does. My fear is they draft a young QB to sit this year and Castonzo retires next year. Entirely possible I’m being too cautious about it, but I hate the idea of a young QB and subpar or even rookie LT. It doesn’t just suck for that year, it can affect the QBs development significantly. Hopefully Ballard has a better indication where ACs head is and we aren’t subject to 3-4 years of will he or won’t he questions.

I also agree on the need for help at WR. As I said, if Ballard is spending money and trying to seriously win this year then WR definitely trumps OT as far as needs. I guess I’m just not sold that is Ballard’s plan, so overall I’m looking at this as the best way to support a young QB and weapons come third to me behind protection and defense.

Either way it isn’t a huge deal. They need help at multiple positions and with 3 picks in the top 44 and tons of cash, they should be able to fill several holes.

Yeah it’s not an ideal situation and I don’t know if there is an ideal
solution. I guess the safe play would be to draft one of the top four LTs if one is available. The only DT I’m sold on is Kinlaw, I actually think Brown will be a bust or not as good as his draft position. The top couple of receivers, a QB, or maybe a chance on a freak Edge like Chiasson.

[rm1369]

Yeah it’s not an ideal situation and I don’t know if there is an ideal
solution. I guess the safe play would be to draft one of the top four LTs if one is available. The only DT I’m sold on is Kinlaw, I actually think Brown will be a bust or not as good as his draft position. The top couple of receivers, a QB, or maybe a chance on a freak Edge like Chiasson.

Agree that Kinlaw is the ideal addition. They desperately need a DT, but I wouldn’t complain about Chaisson either. He’d be pretty good replacement for Sheard. They need more DL talent wherever they can find it.

[Pez]

I want to be clear - I wasn’t knocking Smith or even suggesting he needed replaced at RT. The weak spot on the line is RG. My comment was just to highlight that I don’t think he’s a viable option to move to LT. We don’t have anyone I’d feel comfortable with at LT for an extended period besides AC. I’m aware that with the lack of quality LTs in the league that’s certainly not unusual though.

I understand your point about Castonzo. We don’t really have any idea where his head is, but hopefully Ballard does. My fear is they draft a young QB to sit this year and Castonzo retires next year. Entirely possible I’m being too cautious about it, but I hate the idea of a young QB and subpar or even rookie LT. It doesn’t just suck for that year, it can affect the QBs development significantly. Hopefully Ballard has a better indication where ACs head is and we aren’t subject to 3-4 years of will he or won’t he questions.

I also agree on the need for help at WR. As I said, if Ballard is spending money and trying to seriously win this year then WR definitely trumps OT as far as needs. I guess I’m just not sold that is Ballard’s plan, so overall I’m looking at this as the best way to support a young QB and weapons come third to me behind protection and defense.

Either way it isn’t a huge deal. They need help at multiple positions and with 3 picks in the top 44 and tons of cash, they should be able to fill several holes.

Agree on Smith, just cant overlook that he is a naturally a guard. I think we need to pick up a tackle in FA, and draft one. Let those two compete for RT and move smith to guard. If we cant get a serviceable tackle from FA and draft, we have the luxury of moving smith back to RT.

Then we can keep grooming one of these guys to be Castanzo's replacement. I agree we don't know where his head is, but I think we can only reasonably expect one more season from him. We need to look for a quality tackle in FA, and a 3rd rounder in the draft. Lets go after Conklin or Peters.

[YDFL Commish]

Agree on Smith, just cant overlook that he is a naturally a guard. I think we need to pick up a tackle in FA, and draft one. Let those two compete for RT and move smith to guard. If we cant get a serviceable tackle from FA and draft, we have the luxury of moving smith back to RT.

Then we can keep grooming one of these guys to be Castanzo's replacement. I agree we don't know where his head is, but I think we can only reasonably expect one more season from him. We need to look for a quality tackle in FA, and a 3rd rounder in the draft. Lets go after Conklin or Peters.

From what I've seen of Smith at RT, he is playing at a level equal to or better than Ryan Diem played for the Colts.

That's good enough for me. But, yeah we need to draft a quality OT in the first few rounds of this draft, because of the Costanzo uncertainty as to how long he will play and because of the need for an upgrade over LaRaven Clark.

[smitty46953]

Ian Rapoport‏Verified account @RapSheet ·

Source: The #Colts are releasing veteran DT Margus Hunt, a starter over the last three seasons.

With this happening puts DT on Ballard's radar. Kinlaw I hope :cool:

[smitty46953]

Mike Garafolo‏Verified account @MikeGarafolo

The NFL will proceed with its Draft on Apr 23-25 but will canceled public events in Las Vegas. The league is exploring innovative ways for how the process will be conducted.

:cool:

[Chromeburn]

So this is an interesting mock draft and might challenge conventional wisdom. This is a mock where they emphasize the passing game and the components that influence it.

Analytics mock draft (https://www.pff.com/news/draft-the-pff-analytics-mock-draft-1-0)

So there are some concepts behind this draft that they have taken from the league analytics:

On defense

DT's and offensive interior linemen are devalued so you see a guy like Derrick Brown fall hard.
Only 34 DT's played at least 600 snaps last year. Defenses average about 1000 snaps. That means 1 guy per team is playing 60% of the snaps on the interior.
At 300+ lbs guys just can't stay fresh on the interior, so you are not playing every snap. so you are not providing value.
Rushing from the interior is very hard, you face double teams, it is easier to scheme a player out. Only a few guys like Fletcher Cox, Arron Donald, Chris Jones kind of defy that rule. Does Kinlaw fit into that group?
You get more value drafting an edge player because they are on the field more, so more attempts. On passing downs you might be better off just playing four edge players.
Derrick Brown hasn't shown the measurables for a dominant pass rushing DT, he would be more valuable a decade ago as a run stopper who is ok at pass rushing.
Quinnen Williams had one of the most dominant college seasons at DT ever, he was very average last year. (Given rookie DT's rarely blow up)
In 2018 the Bucs took Vita Vea and the Skins took Daron Payne over Derwin James. Derwin James has had a much greater impact.
Even edge high picked edge players are not going to change the complextion of the team. The team goes as the QB goes. Case in point is the Browns, Myles Garrett is great, but the team only does well if Mayfield does well.

On offense

Quarterbacks are very valuable, especially QB's that are accurate with quick decision making. Sorry Jalen Hurts, not your stengths.
WR's are very valuable because they directly affect the passing game.
WR's that can get open on their own are the most valuable of those WR's.
The Colts had the 2nd worst receiving group last year.
The OT's that are most valuable are the ones with a positive win rate in the passing game.
Notice offensive line is devalued somewhat. That is because you can scheme around defiencies on the offensive. Example is the pats who went from Trent Brown to Isiah Winn and it wasn't a huge problem. They have had good lines and bad lines. What their success is tied to is whether their WR's can get open. They had a bad receiving group in 2019. But in the 2018 AFC title game the Chiefs came in with the best defensive pass rush in the league, but the pats beat it by just throwing quick and short. They were able to do it because their outside players could get open under 2.5 seconds.

[Ironshaft]

So this is an interesting mock draft and might challenge conventional wisdom. This is a mock where they emphasize the passing game and the components that influence it.

Analytics mock draft (https://www.pff.com/news/draft-the-pff-analytics-mock-draft-1-0)
You know this board hates PFF, right?

[Chromeburn]

You know this board hates PFF, right?

Well I'm new here.

[AlwaysSunnyinIndy]

Revisiting Kiper's earlier comment about this WR draft class. He was way off on the "25-30 WR's in the first 3 rounds"......but was really close on his predictions for Round 1 (5 WR) and Round 2 (8 WR). He predicted 13 WR's in the first two rounds and there were 13 WR's in the first two rounds (there were 6 selected in Round 1 and 7 in Round 2)


https://twitter.com/MattLombardoNFL/status/1230179116676239360

Mel Kiper Jr. Says there will be 25-30 receivers going off the board in the first three rounds, with as many as five in the first and eight in the second rounds, doubling down on this being a historically deep WR #NFLDraft class.

https://twitter.com/FieldYates/status/1254410311597207555

Here's how the WR draft class shook out:
-36 WR taken in total (tied with 2003 for most ever through 7 rounds)
-13 taken in first two rounds (most ever)
-23 teams took at least 1
-10 teams took at least 2
-Broncos, Eagles, Raiders took 3
-9 WR were from the SEC

[Chromeburn]

Revisiting Kiper's earlier comment about this WR draft class. He was way off on the "25-30 WR's in the first 3 rounds"......but was really close on his predictions for Round 1 (5 WR) and Round 2 (8 WR). He predicted 13 WR's in the first two rounds and there were 13 WR's in the first two rounds (there were 6 selected in Round 1 and 7 in Round 2)


https://twitter.com/MattLombardoNFL/status/1230179116676239360



https://twitter.com/FieldYates/status/1254410311597207555

That's still a ton. Hopefully this class brings some improvement to the position. Despite the hype the last couple of years, I still feel like the classes have been lacking.

[YDFL Commish]

Revisiting Kiper's earlier comment about this WR draft class. He was way off on the "25-30 WR's in the first 3 rounds"......but was really close on his predictions for Round 1 (5 WR) and Round 2 (8 WR). He predicted 13 WR's in the first two rounds and there were 13 WR's in the first two rounds (there were 6 selected in Round 1 and 7 in Round 2)


https://twitter.com/MattLombardoNFL/status/1230179116676239360



https://twitter.com/FieldYates/status/1254410311597207555

After 40+ years of doing this Kiper is a lot more accurate than he was early in his career.