Realistic Expectations for the Season?

[ChoppedWood]

I really liked the thread about the honest expectations for JB. So much so I decided that with the dust settled a bit and a lot of people sort of seeming to see who is in charge now and not feeling so shitty, what is the sentiment on a realistic expectation for the season?

We see some killer QB's this year. I think the Jags are serious with Foles at the helm and that D looks nasty.

I also think we have a very below the radar defense that is going to scare some folks with the speed and physicality they display. I think Tuary is going to be the emerging star of this unit this year and I think Hooker with all this in front of him finally comes of age as a center fielding ball hawk.

The offense to me at least, is maybe approaching an all around skill level that is nearing the Marvin, Reggie, Stokely, Clark level. TY is sick and might not move the chains like either Marvin or Reg, but he also trashes D like crazy, Ebron et al including Funchess create huge match up problems---- there is certainly no Reggie yet, but I am really thinking Cain is going to shine and then there's the potential that a combo of Hines and Campbell just blow things wide open and set this Offense appart. Obviously no Edge in there- but I do think Mack is a notch better than Addai and he and Dom got us a title. Oline, man we had some great ones back in the day but the 5 that were together for the final push last year, those dudes mauled people, mauled better than I ever recall any of the Manning lines moving people off the ball...

Overall, I like what we have and I really think we may have the games most skilled game manager wearing the headset in Reich. He is daring but not reckless and he plays to the strengths of his personnel.

I am going to put us back at 10-6 and in the playoffs. I again think we win the first game but have to go on the road in the 2nd round. There to me, it all depends on how far Brisset has come, if he's the leader they say he is, I can see this team getting to the Conference game but that's it for this year.

[VeveJones007]

A lot of good, reasonable points in there. I think 10 wins is definitely possible (maybe ~20% likely if I had to guess), but I do have three significant concerns that make me think 6-7 wins is the most likely outcome.

1) I’m not convinced Brissett is a top 20 QB and it’s really hard for those teams to be above .500. Just look at how Denver has done with a great defense and no QB since Peyton retired. Or even a team like Buffalo.
2) I think this OL is a bit overrated. They’re leaps and bounds better than 2017, but I think Luck masked some protection issues last year which Brissett won’t be able to replicate. If they could consistently win in the running game, I’d feel much better.
3) Pass rush. I’m more encouraged than I’ve been in any post-Mathis season, but if they can’t get consistent pressure in 2019, it will hurt them. They left a few games on the table in 2017 because of the lack of pressure. Hopefully they step up.

[ChoppedWood]

A lot of good, reasonable points in there. I think 10 wins is definitely possible (maybe ~20% likely if I had to guess), but I do have three significant concerns that make me think 6-7 wins is the most likely outcome.

1) I’m not convinced Brissett is a top 20 QB and it’s really hard for those teams to be above .500. Just look at how Denver has done with a great defense and no QB since Peyton retired. Or even a team like Buffalo.
2) I think this OL is a bit overrated. They’re leaps and bounds better than 2017, but I think Luck masked some protection issues last year which Brissett won’t be able to replicate. If they could consistently win in the running game, I’d feel much better.
3) Pass rush. I’m more encouraged than I’ve been in any post-Mathis season, but if they can’t get consistent pressure in 2019, it will hurt them. They left a few games on the table in 2017 because of the lack of pressure. Hopefully they step up.

Good points in there as well.

I am not sold Brisset is a top 20 QB either, but I also think he might not have to be with this team, and most important to me, this coaching staff.

Some of those other teams you mention, I watch them and literally just sit there and wonder what the effin' game plan is? I often equate it to the Jim Caldwell days- what exactly are you trying to accomplish, because to me, it looks like you just have this script of plays you are going to call no matter what and if they don't work, screw it, punt and let's see if we can beat them with D.

Outside of the KC playoff game last year (no idea what the hell that was, no friggin' idea - the cleats, the snow showers, F if I know but I'lll give them the mulligan...), but outside of that game I felt all last year that this team had a plan, that they went after things with a specific intent. That said, I also came away watching them and feeling a little like and I'm fucking hating typing this- feeling like I was watching the Pats. For seemingly centuries they have ruled the NFL by playing ball within 5-7 yards of the line of scrimmage, just rubbing people all over the field- chewing up clock and demoralizing defenses. I saw us doing that same thing, and it was kind of fun!

Similarly on D, it did not feel like we just took the damn "this is our scheme, we won't alter it for nothing (even Dungy was guilty of this) so I hope you didn't game plan for us"... it seemed like we actually went into games with unique plans in place- it was very refreshing.

So while I do understand the feeling that the QB play may be so inferior as to derail a run, I think we have a staff that is not going to pull a Pags and Pep (hey remember that turd) and just "do what we do" and see what happens. I think they will game plan around Jacoby's strength's, try to mask his weaknesses, and ultimately look to win a lot of close games with good scheme and good leaders.

[omahacolt]

At best 9-7

Probably 7-9

[JAFF]

Put the beat down on the Titans and maybe Marcus Mariotta will be available?

:eek:

[Maniac]

Please just beat the Titans. I will never hear the end of it from my redneck Titans fan buddy if they don't. He has already been talking shit about Luck retiring.

[JAFF]

Please just beat the Titans. I will never hear the end of it from my redneck Titans fan buddy if they don't. He has already been talking shit about Luck retiring.

Ask them about that QB they got from the U of Texas

[Oldcolt]

Ballard wanted to build a team of high character men. What this team does this season will be a huge test of that. As for expectations, I don't really expect us to be playing meaningful football in December this year.

[ChoppedWood]

Put the beat down on the Titans and maybe Marcus Mariotta will be available?

:eek:

Did you see his lowlights the other night- this cat may be done for already, he looked horrible.

[apballin]

10-6 still take the afc south this team always performs better as underdogs

[Racehorse]

I want either ten wins or two wins. Nothing in between. Sadly, I think that is where we will end up.

[rcubed]

I want either ten wins or two wins. Nothing in between. Sadly, I think that is where we will end up.
yep, we will be just good enough to not get a high draft pick but not good enough to make any noise in the playoffs.

[Oldcolt]

yep, we will be just good enough to not get a high draft pick but not good enough to make any noise in the playoffs.

So if this is true, and I think it is the most likely outcome, how do we escape this particular kind of football hell?

[Brylok]

5-11 or thereabouts

[rcubed]

So if this is true, and I think it is the most likely outcome, how do we escape this particular kind of football hell?
you cant unless you produce a terrible year when some good QBs come into the draft or somehow get lucky with a FA QB which isnt likely to happen.

no one on the current staff would seem to be the type to tank.

[CanuckColt]

After checking the schedule, anywhere from 6-10 to 8-8, so probably 7-9.
This assumes Brissett plays all games.
If Kelly gets up to speed and plays at least half the games, 10-6 is possible.

[Oldcolt]

you cant unless you produce a terrible year when some good QBs come into the draft or somehow get lucky with a FA QB which isnt likely to happen.

no one on the current staff would seem to be the type to tank.

Agreed. It's though adjusting your hopes down from a possible run where you had a chance every year to go make it to the Super Bowl to whatever it is we are now. To be a consistent threat you seem to need a franchise qb.

[Dam8610]

I count 9 winnable games, 1 I'm fairly confident about, so I'll say 5-11. Hopefully that's bad enough for a Top 5 pick.

[Chromeburn]

Agreed. It's though adjusting your hopes down from a possible run where you had a chance every year to go make it to the Super Bowl to whatever it is we are now. To be a consistent threat you seem to need a franchise qb.

Well we squandered it. Backed a couple idiots too long. Teams already move on after a season or two. I wonder if they will move even faster now afraid their window might retire after a big contract.

[Chromeburn]

I count 9 winnable games, 1 I'm fairly confident about, so I'll say 5-11. Hopefully that's bad enough for a Top 5 pick.

I don’t even know if I want any of the QBs in this draft.

[albany ed]

I want either ten wins or two wins. Nothing in between. Sadly, I think that is where we will end up.

The only way I'd be wanting a 2 win season is if they'd already lost the first 14 games. For me, every game is a thing unto itself and I want a "W", a resounding "W"

[njcoltfan]

I really liked the thread about the honest expectations for JB. So much so I decided that with the dust settled a bit and a lot of people sort of seeming to see who is in charge now and not feeling so shitty, what is the sentiment on a realistic expectation for the season?

We see some killer QB's this year. I think the Jags are serious with Foles at the helm and that D looks nasty.

I also think we have a very below the radar defense that is going to scare some folks with the speed and physicality they display. I think Tuary is going to be the emerging star of this unit this year and I think Hooker with all this in front of him finally comes of age as a center fielding ball hawk.

The offense to me at least, is maybe approaching an all around skill level that is nearing the Marvin, Reggie, Stokely, Clark level. TY is sick and might not move the chains like either Marvin or Reg, but he also trashes D like crazy, Ebron et al including Funchess create huge match up problems---- there is certainly no Reggie yet, but I am really thinking Cain is going to shine and then there's the potential that a combo of Hines and Campbell just blow things wide open and set this Offense appart. Obviously no Edge in there- but I do think Mack is a notch better than Addai and he and Dom got us a title. Oline, man we had some great ones back in the day but the 5 that were together for the final push last year, those dudes mauled people, mauled better than I ever recall any of the Manning lines moving people off the ball...

Overall, I like what we have and I really think we may have the games most skilled game manager wearing the headset in Reich. He is daring but not reckless and he plays to the strengths of his personnel.

I am going to put us back at 10-6 and in the playoffs. I again think we win the first game but have to go on the road in the 2nd round. There to me, it all depends on how far Brisset has come, if he's the leader they say he is, I can see this team getting to the Conference game but that's it for this year.

Glad to see that you've come down off that ledge!! I can also see a 10/11 win season!! GO COLTS

[VeveJones007]

I count 9 winnable games, 1 I'm fairly confident about, so I'll say 5-11. Hopefully that's bad enough for a Top 5 pick.

The only games I'm penciling in as losses are @KC and @NO. While the Colts won't be favored in some others (e.g. @LAC), they're probably about 35-40% likely to win those games.

[ZionsvilleColtsFan]

Hope I'm way off but my prediction is 6-10 and no playoffs

[apballin]

Still 10-6 still afc south champs

Jacoby can run this thing, don’t turn it over get the ball out quick

[natagu23]

Colts compete for the division and thats about it.

Marlon Mack is introduced to the rest of the NFL and goes to the pro-bowl.

[Chromeburn]

After mulling this over. I think the Colts were a 13-3 team with Luck. I think Brisset is about a 4 game difference. Perhaps 6-8 pts a game. So I see us having 9 wins and perhaps getting into the playoffs by winning the division. I think the Jaguars will be the main competition for the division followed by Tennessee. The Texans will finish last and they will fire their coach.

[Hoopsdoc]

On the eve of the season and I’m just not sure what to expect. How has the team responded to everything? Have they rallied behind Brissett or are they discouraged over Luck? I think the answer to that question will tell us a lot.

I’m going to guess anywhere between 5-11 and 8-8. With my expectations being more toward 5-11.

Sadly, I feel we’re stuck in qb purgatory for awhile. I don’t think Kelly or Brissett are the long term answer.

[Puck]

Brissett is going to do better than we think. I’m basing this on the team around him. He has a lot of weapons. With luck this team is probably 13-3 or 14-2 With JB I say 9-7 or 10-6. Need the chargers game to get to 10-6 IMO

Losses to Chiefs Steelers Saints @Jags @ Tennessee and another one somewhere. Possibly both Tenn games

[TheMugwump]

Luck was better than JB, but not more than two games better.

So since I was saying 12-4 with Andrew, let's go with 10-6, division title, and then, unless they hit KC again, at least one playoff win.

[Dam8610]

Luck was better than JB, but not more than two games better.

So since I was saying 12-4 with Andrew, let's go with 10-6, division title, and then, unless they hit KC again, at least one playoff win.

I think everyone here is underestimating how valuable Andrew Luck was. I like what Ballard has done with the team as a whole, but Luck was on a completely different level than Brissett as a QB. I think with careful management and gameplans designed to build confidence, Reich may be able to get average to above average starter production out of Brissett, but he's not going to win you games like Luck. It's possible that the young talent on this team is ready to step up and this could still be a playoff team, but I think it's much more likely that we're trying to figure out which of Tagliavoa, Herbert, or Fromm we want.

[Chromeburn]

I think everyone here is underestimating how valuable Andrew Luck was. I like what Ballard has done with the team as a whole, but Luck was on a completely different level than Brissett as a QB. I think with careful management and gameplans designed to build confidence, Reich may be able to get average to above average starter production out of Brissett, but he's not going to win you games like Luck. It's possible that the young talent on this team is ready to step up and this could still be a playoff team, but I think it's much more likely that we're trying to figure out which of Tagliavoa, Herbert, or Fromm we want.

I don't think we will have a shot at any of those QB's. I don't know if I want them either. And outside of a total collapse we will not get Lawrence in 2021.

I don't know if I am elevating JB so much as elevating the talent around him. Four top 40 picks on the offensive line to protect him. His receivers in 2016 besides TY were Dorsett, Moncrief, Rogers, and Quan Bray. TE's Allen and Doyle; with RB's Gore and Turbin. This year he has TY, Rogers and Doyle again, but you add Funchess, Ebron, Cox, Hentges, Cain, Cambell, and Pascal. Much more YAC potential with Ebron, Cain, and Cambell. Out of the backfield Mack and Hines, who is almost a receiver.

Add a younger faster defense with a good pass rush specialist. I see wins being more complete and dependant on team play. The won't lean on JB like they did on Luck. He needs to be more game manager and just move the chains, get the ball to his playmakers and let them work. Lean on the defense more.

[Oldcolt]

I had always felt that our being a Super Bowl contender was more about the improvement in defense than anything else. If Brissett performs like Ballard/Reich think he will (and I do think both are straight shooters) this offense should be playoff caliber.

[VeveJones007]

I think everyone here is underestimating how valuable Andrew Luck was. I like what Ballard has done with the team as a whole, but Luck was on a completely different level than Brissett as a QB. I think with careful management and gameplans designed to build confidence, Reich may be able to get average to above average starter production out of Brissett, but he's not going to win you games like Luck. It's possible that the young talent on this team is ready to step up and this could still be a playoff team, but I think it's much more likely that we're trying to figure out which of Tagliavoa, Herbert, or Fromm we want.

I think the floor is 6 wins, upside is 11, 8 is most likely. No Brissett won't win games like Luck, but the group around him is better than any that Luck ever had. That's where the upside comes in.

Plus, the NFL is just fucking weird due to the small sample size. A couple injuries or turnovers here and there can make a huge swing in a team's final record. Players can play above their heads for stretches and make all the difference (see: Foles, Nick; Flacco, Joe).

[Dam8610]

I don't think we will have a shot at any of those QB's. I don't know if I want them either. And outside of a total collapse we will not get Lawrence in 2021.

I don't know if I am elevating JB so much as elevating the talent around him. Four top 40 picks on the offensive line to protect him. His receivers in 2016 besides TY were Dorsett, Moncrief, Rogers, and Quan Bray. TE's Allen and Doyle; with RB's Gore and Turbin. This year he has TY, Rogers and Doyle again, but you add Funchess, Ebron, Cox, Hentges, Cain, Cambell, and Pascal. Much more YAC potential with Ebron, Cain, and Cambell. Out of the backfield Mack and Hines, who is almost a receiver.

Add a younger faster defense with a good pass rush specialist. I see wins being more complete and dependant on team play. The won't lean on JB like they did on Luck. He needs to be more game manager and just move the chains, get the ball to his playmakers and let them work. Lean on the defense more.

There's almost always a game that a team needs their QB to win, even the most complete teams. I don't think Brissett has that ability. I hope he proves me wrong.

[Oldcolt]

There's almost always a game that a team needs their QB to win, even the most complete teams. I don't think Brissett has that ability. I hope he proves me wrong.

I'm not sure what you mean. Frank Reich was a mediocre quarterback that led one of the greatest comeback in NFL history. Are you saying Brissett is incapable of leading this team to victory once we are behind? The only way I think this statement is true is if Brissett is the second coming of Tolzien. I think you are way underselling this young man's (and this coaching staff's) potential.

[Dam8610]

I'm not sure what you mean. Frank Reich was a mediocre quarterback that led one of the greatest comeback in NFL history. Are you saying Brissett is incapable of leading this team to victory once we are behind? The only way I think this statement is true is if Brissett is the second coming of Tolzien. I think you are way underselling this young man's (and this coaching staff's) potential.

The thing that made that game so historic was the sheer improbability of it. I think I don't want to see what happens if Jacoby Brissett is facing a 38-10 third quarter deficit in the playoffs and coming off of his third interception of the game. I'd certainly be absolutely stunned to see him turn that into a 45-44 win.

[Oldcolt]

The thing that made that game so historic was the sheer improbability of it. I think I don't want to see what happens if Jacoby Brissett is facing a 38-10 third quarter deficit in the playoffs and coming off of his third interception of the game. I'd certainly be absolutely stunned to see him turn that into a 45-44 win.

I agree with this. It would be stunning, however, regardless of who is the qb. Brissett won't due what Luck did for us (you don't need what Luck did for us to win-Brady isn't near the athlete Luck is but has led his team to umpteen Super Bowls). If the season turns to shit I don't think it will because of Brissett. Like you, however, I am concerned-I just harbor more hope.

[rcubed]

Realistic Expectations:
I expect the defense to be better than last year.
I expect brissett will be better under reich than he was under pagano.
I expect the team to be a up and down.
I expect we will win 6-7 games.

[Pez]

Realistic Expectations:
I expect the defense to be better than last year.
I expect brissett will be better under reich than he was under pagano.
I expect the team to be a up and down.
I expect we will win 6-7 games.

I expect our running game to be better than last year also.

[Chromeburn]

There's almost always a game that a team needs their QB to win, even the most complete teams. I don't think Brissett has that ability. I hope he proves me wrong.

Oh I agree. Luck was a safety net we don’t have anymore. I can’t believe Hoyer is a nasty play away from starting. Don’t have any choice, hopefully he shows us something. I am cautiously optimistic after watching Brisset’s highlights from 2017. He had a lot to overcome in 2017. Learning the offense on the run, few good receivers, little time to throw. So with a better lineup around him hopefully he can be a cog, doesn’t have to be the guy.

As for rookie QBs gonna watch Eason and Love closely this year.

[VeveJones007]

I see four tiers in the Colts schedule:

On paper, I see 7 likely wins:
-3 division games
-MIA
-OAK
-DEN
-TB

5 games that are winnable:
-3 division games
-ATL
-CAR

2 games that are probable losses:
-LAC
-PIT

2 games that are nearly guaranteed losses:
-NO
-KC

I really wouldn't be shocked with anything from 7-10 wins. Could be a couple key turnovers or injuries that makes all the difference...Derwin James, possibly?

[JAFF]

My prediction, they are playing this sunday

[YDFL Commish]

We sweep the Tits, just because we always do.

[CanuckColt]

Luck was better than JB, but not more than two games better.

So since I was saying 12-4 with Andrew, let's go with 10-6, division title, and then, unless they hit KC again, at least one playoff win.

What? Luck was 4 to 5 games better than Brissett.

[TheMugwump]

What? Luck was 4 to 5 games better than Brissett.

Disagree.

[omahacolt]

Disagree.

Wrong

[nate505]

Perhaps I'm very overly optimistic this season (like I was in 2017 when Luck was gone, and we all know how that season turned out), but I really think they'll go 10-6 this year. The coaching staff has a clue and the Colts, other than the admittedly significant QB position, are pretty stacked on both sides of the ball. And I really think the coaching staff will work with JB to get all they can out of him.

Wins
Houston (Home)
Tennessee (Home)
Tennessee (Away)
Jags (Home)
Jags (Away)
Oakland (Home)
Miami (Home)
Tampa (Away)
Carolina (Home)
Broncos (Home)

Losses
Kansas City (Away)
LA Chargers (Away)
New Orleans (Away)
Houston (Away)
Atlanta (Home)
Steelers (Away)

[omahacolt]

Perhaps I'm very overly optimistic this season (like I was in 2017 when Luck was gone, and we all know how that season turned out), but I really think they'll go 10-6 this year. The coaching staff has a clue and the Colts, other than the admittedly significant QB position, are pretty stacked on both sides of the ball. And I really think the coaching staff will work with JB to get all they can out of him.

Wins
Houston (Home)
Tennessee (Home)
Tennessee (Away)
Jags (Home)
Jags (Away)
Oakland (Home)
Miami (Home)
Tampa (Away)
Carolina (Home)
Broncos (Home)

Losses
Kansas City (Away)
LA Chargers (Away)
New Orleans (Away)
Houston (Away)
Atlanta (Home)
Steelers (Away)

I would guess 10-6 is the max. Likely 8-8 or 9-7 if healthy

[IndyNorm]

We won 4 games with Brissett when there was far less overall talent on the team and a completely incompetent coaching staff. Good coaching and better overall talent should definitely lead to at least a couple more wins. I think 7-9 wins is pretty likely so will split the difference and say we finish 8-8.

[IndyNorm]

Perhaps I'm very overly optimistic this season (like I was in 2017 when Luck was gone, and we all know how that season turned out), but I really think they'll go 10-6 this year. The coaching staff has a clue and the Colts, other than the admittedly significant QB position, are pretty stacked on both sides of the ball. And I really think the coaching staff will work with JB to get all they can out of him.

Wins
Houston (Home)
Tennessee (Home)
Tennessee (Away)
Jags (Home)
Jags (Away)
Oakland (Home)
Miami (Home)
Tampa (Away)
Carolina (Home)
Broncos (Home)

Losses
Kansas City (Away)
LA Chargers (Away)
New Orleans (Away)
Houston (Away)
Atlanta (Home)
Steelers (Away)

Mostly agree with you. I think @ Jags will be an L, but ATL at home is a very winnable game.

[nate505]

I would guess 10-6 is the max. Likely 8-8 or 9-7 if healthy

For sure, 10 wins is the high end and I'm being fairly optimistic. Still, it at least seems realistic. Unlike say 12 wins which while I guess is possible I just can't see it.

[YDFL Commish]

This all really depends more on the defense, the running game and the O-Line, more than it does Brissett or the passing game. I'm not worried about Brisett turning the ball over. He's shown that he's pretty good in that area.

We will get our yards through the air. But if we can get a 10% increase in the running game and again produce 30+ turnovers, while getting a slight bump in sacks, along with a little better pass defense, then this is a 10 win team or more.

[DrSpaceman]

I can see anywhere from 6-10 wins for this team

I expect it will be 8 or 9, flirting with a wild card spot but may not make it.

[TheMugwump]

Wrong

No. I really do disagree.

[ZionsvilleColtsFan]

Season Win total predictions and outcomes: I had the Colts at 6-10 while OmahaColt was 7-9 ....however some were drinking blue kool aid with 10, 12 , and even 13 win season predictions

[Racehorse]

Season Win total predictions and outcomes: I had the Colts at 6-10 while OmahaColt was 7-9 ....however some were drinking blue kool aid with 10, 12 , and even 13 win season predictions

Most predicted ten wins before Luck retired. Very few did after that day.

[Luck4Reich]

Hopefully people NOW realize Luck was 4-5 games better than Brissett. He was just on another level and a true starter. JB NEVER was or will be starting quality.

[YDFL Commish]

I would say that every facet of the team has regressed from last season. Maybe a slight improvement in LB play, but every other position group has regressed.

[Spike]

Hopefully people NOW realize Luck was 4-5 games better than Brissett. Je was just on another level and a true starter. JB NEVER was or will be starting quality.

Totally agree. I tried to give JB the benefit of the doubt early on, but he just fucking sucks.

[rcubed]

Totally agree. I tried to give JB the benefit of the doubt early on, but he just fucking sucks.
I think he is an excellent backup. He just doesnt have enough to be a full time starter.

[Brylok]

5-11 or thereabouts

Hmm. Pretty close as it's turning out. I don't know, maybe they can get a 7th win somewhere. I do know that the Colts team that played the Saints last night won't beat anybody. Pathetic performance

[Chromeburn]

So when we go 8-8 because the next two teams are mailing it in the rest of the year. Does everyone feel a little better about the season?

[Butter]

Not really.

[Brylok]

So when we go 8-8 because the next two teams are mailing it in the rest of the year. Does everyone feel a little better about the season?

I think that would be the worst thing that could happen

[Chromeburn]

I think that would be the worst thing that could happen

Pretty much. But we can’t even commit to being bad for a better pick for a QB.