Realistic Expectations for Brissett

[VeveJones007]

2017 Stats:
16 GP (15 starts), 3,098 yards, 58.8% comp %, 13 TDs, 7 INTs, 52 sacks

Obviously, a lot has changed with the 2019 roster.

The coaching is significantly improved with a coach who is known to emphasize a player's strengths.
The OL is night and day better than it was (Luck was sacked only 18 times last year).
There are better, more dynamic playmakers at receiver, TE, and RB.
The defense is markedly better and should create more turnovers and keep the offense in better situations.


I think the biggest two questions influencing Brissett in 2019 will be 1) his ability to process reads and 2) short-to-medium accuracy. Based on comments from Sirianni, we know that Brissett has taken steps to improve in both areas.

What does that mean for our expectations for Brissett in 2019? There's certainly a range of probable outcomes, but I think a reasonable comp would be Dak Prescott's 2018 stat line:
3,885 yards, 67.7% comp %, 22 TDs, 8 INTs

[ChoppedWood]

2017 Stats:
16 GP (15 starts), 3,098 yards, 58.8% comp %, 13 TDs, 7 INTs, 52 sacks

Obviously, a lot has changed with the 2019 roster.

The coaching is significantly improved with a coach who is known to emphasize a player's strengths.
The OL is night and day better than it was (Luck was sacked only 18 times last year).
There are better, more dynamic playmakers at receiver, TE, and RB.
The defense is markedly better and should create more turnovers and keep the offense in better situations.


I think the biggest two questions influencing Brissett in 2019 will be 1) his ability to process reads and 2) short-to-medium accuracy. Based on comments from Sirianni, we know that Brissett has taken steps to improve in both areas.

What does that mean for our expectations for Brissett in 2019? There's certainly a range of probably outcomes, but I think a reasonable comp would be Dak Prescott's 2018 stat line:
3,885 yards, 67.7% comp %, 22 TDs, 8 INTs

Healthy, I think he's over 4,000, this lineup is stacked, he's had all the reps, and Reich is the brains behind it...

I'm not sold on his %, that to me is the marked difference between he and Andrew. I will peg him right around 60%.

TD's I think we're going to see it light up like the 4th in that area, I think he's 32+.

He scares me a bit more with the INT's, I would not be shocked if he ends up 15-18 range in INT's. Good news is, I think he's got a D that can rescue him in a lot of cases.

[rcubed]

I'm not sold on his %, that to me is the marked difference between he and Andrew. I will peg him right around 60%.


lucks career comp % is 60.8

[ChoppedWood]

lucks career comp % is 60.8

I know, and he ramped it up to I think 67% last year, which is a great increase on a percentile basis, in large part due to the scheme that Reich employees- the ball is not traveling near as far as it's built much like the Pats for separation and YAC. I just don't think Jacoby is going to deliver it as on time as Luck did last year.

Sucks because I could really have seen Luck, with these weapons, 2nd year in the program, I could have seen him toying with 70% this year.

[VeveJones007]

Healthy, I think he's over 4,000, this lineup is stacked, he's had all the reps, and Reich is the brains behind it...

I'm not sold on his %, that to me is the marked difference between he and Andrew. I will peg him right around 60%.

TD's I think we're going to see it light up like the 4th in that area, I think he's 32+.

He scares me a bit more with the INT's, I would not be shocked if he ends up 15-18 range in INT's. Good news is, I think he's got a D that can rescue him in a lot of cases.

I don’t think any of that is likely if he’s around 60% comp rate. That’s Bortles territory. He needs to be around 65% if he’s going to have any success.

[ChoppedWood]

I don’t think any of that is likely if he’s around 60% comp rate. That’s Bortles territory. He needs to be around 65% if he’s going to have any success.

You also brought sacks into the equation and I think that is just a critical piece of the puzzle, and it's going to have a corollary relationship (duh) with Jacoby.

Now granted, his Oline in 17' was dogshit, worse I think it was the shit scraped up before it becomes dog shit. That said, he just held the ball too long and even in the Cleveland game which is the only snaps he's had- he showed some signs of doing it again.

So, if we can assume:
1- Oline is NEAR what they were last year (18 sacks is so absurd)
2- He has taken the coaching to heart and understands he doesn't have to score on every poss so he throws the ball away...
If those two happen, let's say <25 sacks, then I think his INT rate will be 12-13, and if so, his completion rate may be down a bit just due to some throw-aways vs forces...if so he will be getting tons of positive press and we're going to be rolling.

It's early, but it's also scary that really there's been no game action for the real Oline- which bothers me. FUCK I could really benefit by seeing a Big-Q balls to your face smash right now!

[VeveJones007]

You also brought sacks into the equation and I think that is just a critical piece of the puzzle, and it's going to have a corollary relationship (duh) with Jacoby.

Now granted, his Oline in 17' was dogshit, worse I think it was the shit scraped up before it becomes dog shit. That said, he just held the ball too long and even in the Cleveland game which is the only snaps he's had- he showed some signs of doing it again.

So, if we can assume:
1- Oline is NEAR what they were last year (18 sacks is so absurd)
2- He has taken the coaching to heart and understands he doesn't have to score on every poss so he throws the ball away...
If those two happen, let's say <25 sacks, then I think his INT rate will be 12-13, and if so, his completion rate may be down a bit just due to some throw-aways vs forces...if so he will be getting tons of positive press and we're going to be rolling.

It's early, but it's also scary that really there's been no game action for the real Oline- which bothers me. FUCK I could really benefit by seeing a Big-Q balls to your face smash right now!

Actually, I take back my 65% rate to some extent. While it's a bit of an outlier, he could pull a Cam Newton and put up 3,837/35 TDs/10 INTs on 60% comp rate. I like his odds a lot better if he's around 65%, but it isn't unprecedented.

[JAFF]

He can't be a turnover machine.

The entire team has got to pitch in. He can't carry the entire load. The other stars have got to step up and carry the load for a while

Having a dink and dunk O plan is not terrible, it helped Brady when didn't know shit. The Eagles won with it.

Lean on the D. Take risks with the D. Unleash the HOUNDS!!!!! If they make a mistake, have it happen and warp speed

[CanuckColt]

Brissett is Brissett...we all know who he is and what we are getting, an average game manager.
I'm excited to see how our young guys develop, LBs, DBs, WRs, etc.

[Puck]

JB has become the new Mike Hart in this board.

[AlwaysSunnyinIndy]

Obviously, a lot has changed with the 2019 roster.

The coaching is significantly improved with a coach who is known to emphasize a player's strengths.
The OL is night and day better than it was (Luck was sacked only 18 times last year).
There are better, more dynamic playmakers at receiver, TE, and RB.
The defense is markedly better and should create more turnovers and keep the offense in better situations.





One other thing to remember about the 2017 season - JB had no training camp with the team.

He was traded to the Colts and then 8 days later :eek: was QB'ing in a regular season game (he relieved the infamous Scott Tolzien who had gone 9 for 18 for 128 yards with two Pick-6's over the first 3 quarters). I doubt Jacoby knew all of his teammates names, let alone the playbook.

I won't speculate on stats but I think Jacoby will be a bit inconsistent this season. There will be games that he puts up some awesome numbers (probably against AFC South opponents) - but he will have some clunkers as well.

Hopefully he has developed some chemistry / timing with his receiving corps during camp and preseason activities. And as stated, leans on his teammates because this 2019 team is a lot more talented than the 2017 team.

[Lov2fish]

I think he shocks Colt nation. Reich and Ballard have known for a few weeks, or had an inclination of the impending doom. I guarantee he has changed up some plays to fit Colby's strengths. He can run and is elusive, just got to remember to get down and not take unnecessary hits. Throw the ball away when nothing is there. I hope he gets the ball out quicker. Look receivers off and not lock onto a certain player in the play. Recognize defensive schemes and blitz packages and where the pressure is most likely coming from. If he has picked these things up and they worked on his mechanics I think you see 4100-4200 yards, 33-35 TD's and about 15 picks.

If he hasn't? I guess the Chad Kelly era will start in earnest by game 4.

[omahacolt]

He isn’t very good. 4000 yards and 22 tds would be good. Great really. We need to find a new qb

[DrSpaceman]

If he is an average QB this team will be in most games.

That is my expectation for him this season.

I don't expect him to be Andrew Luck or on that level If he can run Reichs offense and get the ball out quickly, minimize mistakes, this offense has enough talent to be very productive, say top bottom of the top 10 in the league.

The Colts and Ballard seem high on him. You can argue, what else are they going to say? But given the situation with Luck and how it may have been surprise to use but likely was not to them, if they didn't think he could do the job I think other moves would have or could be made. I don't see that happening, which means they really do believe in JB.

[ChoppedWood]

If he is an average QB this team will be in most games.

That is my expectation for him this season.

I don't expect him to be Andrew Luck or on that level If he can run Reichs offense and get the ball out quickly, minimize mistakes, this offense has enough talent to be very productive, say top bottom of the top 10 in the league.

The Colts and Ballard seem high on him. You can argue, what else are they going to say? But given the situation with Luck and how it may have been surprise to use but likely was not to them, if they didn't think he could do the job I think other moves would have or could be made. I don't see that happening, which means they really do believe in JB.

Agree, it's pretty obvious this isn't really coming as the surprise the whole crew wants everyone to believe (schnookering the fan base YET again IMO). Yep, they've got a great cast of talent and if they felt there was someone better they could get, they would have done it some time ago.

[VeveJones007]

If he is an average QB this team will be in most games.

That is my expectation for him this season.

I don't expect him to be Andrew Luck or on that level If he can run Reichs offense and get the ball out quickly, minimize mistakes, this offense has enough talent to be very productive, say top bottom of the top 10 in the league.

The Colts and Ballard seem high on him. You can argue, what else are they going to say? But given the situation with Luck and how it may have been surprise to use but likely was not to them, if they didn't think he could do the job I think other moves would have or could be made. I don't see that happening, which means they really do believe in JB.

They seem like straight shooters, so I take them at their word that they actually believe he's a top 20 QB. But that also means that they think he's an average starter; otherwise, they would have said top 10 QB.

[albany ed]

I really don't care what his numbers are except for his turnover numbers. The bottom line, can he win? His last time leading this team, he had no time to learn the offense, which, since it was Pagano, was a shitty game plan. This year, he's taken nearly all of the reps with the starting team, has a coach who has demonstrated he has a great scheme, has a stud OL. My expectations aren't high, but my hopes are. Just win baby, by any means necessary.

[Pez]

I don't think he is going to be great, but I think he's going to be better than we expect. Think of the pressure that is off him now, it's got to be mind blowing for a 26 year old kid, he really has to be thinking "what the holy hell is happening to me?"

One thing I know for sure is that Brissett is fully vested in this team. Hit you tube for Collin Telesz videos (they are absolutely fantastic, subscribe to him if you do that sort of thing), He has tons of them, and the reason I bring this up is that among the highlights and all, you see Jacoby brissett constantly on the sidelines, constantly talking to players and coaches... and when Ballard etc calls him a "unique leader," I choose to buy in.

What I want to see from my team is the type of team that rallied to beat Green Bay under Arians. I want to see the OL step the fuck up, recognize than they need to have JBs back. The WRs and (perhaps more likely) the TEs step up and have JBs back. The Defense step up and get the ball back when JB throws his third interception of the game.

This is the hand were dealt. Sure it might be left, king, and off-suit A, Q, 10, but play it right and get the damn point.

[VeveJones007]

I really don't care what his numbers are except for his turnover numbers. The bottom line, can he win? His last time leading this team, he had no time to learn the offense, which, since it was Pagano, was a shitty game plan. This year, he's taken nearly all of the reps with the starting team, has a coach who has demonstrated he has a great scheme, has a stud OL. My expectations aren't high, but my hopes are. Just win baby, by any means necessary.

His turnover numbers were fine in 2017. You should worry about the productivity numbers.

[albany ed]

His turnover numbers were fine in 2017. You should worry about the productivity numbers.

You worry about the productivity numbers, I just want wins. If he goes 7 for 20 with no turnovers and the team wins 13 to 10, I'll be happy.

[VeveJones007]

You worry about the productivity numbers, I just want wins. If he goes 7 for 20 with no turnovers and the team wins 13 to 10, I'll be happy.

I will as well, but I acknowledge there's a pretty high correlation between good QB play and wins.

[VeveJones007]

http://www.nfl.com/videos/baldys-breakdowns/0ap3000001044311/How-Brissett-can-power-new-look-Colts-Baldy-s-Breakdowns

This is a good short breakdown of some of Brissett's preseason play by Brian Baldinger. Obviously take preseason with a grain of salt, but there's some good pocket presence, escapability, reads, and throws from Brissett shown here.

I expect Reich to spread things out in passing situations and use some motion to make it easier for Brissett to read the coverage pre-snap. I also expect Reich to make a more concerted effort to establish the run in the first half of games this season.

[Pez]

He was sacked 52 times the last full season he played. Luck 18. I think he improves considerably.

[omahacolt]

You worry about the productivity numbers, I just want wins. If he goes 7 for 20 with no turnovers and the team wins 13 to 10, I'll be happy.

I don’t think the colts are good enough to win like that. We have made strides in talent but this defense still worries me some

[omahacolt]

You worry about the productivity numbers, I just want wins. If he goes 7 for 20 with no turnovers and the team wins 13 to 10, I'll be happy.

I don’t think the colts are good enough to win like that. We have made strides in talent but this defense still worries me some

[Pez]

I don’t think the colts are good enough to win like that. We have made strides in talent but this defense still worries me some

Wild, your opinion surprises me. We were 11th in Defense last year and have developed existing talent (Autry, Stewart), and added talent as well.

I think it may take a few game for them to get their shit together and get the lineups right, but I think we're one of the more solid defenses that we've had in years.

I think week 5 vs kc will be the touchstone. If the Chefs put up big numbers we will have a rough season ahead.

[albany ed]

I don’t think the colts are good enough to win like that. We have made strides in talent but this defense still worries me some

If Brissett only has to throw 20 times in a game and doesn't turn it over, that means there was a stellar running attack. A stellar running attack means winning TOP and that usually means a good defensive performance.

[omahacolt]

Wild, your opinion surprises me. We were 11th in Defense last year and have developed existing talent (Autry, Stewart), and added talent as well.

I think it may take a few game for them to get their shit together and get the lineups right, but I think we're one of the more solid defenses that we've had in years.

I think week 3 vs kc will be the touchstone. If the Chefs put up big numbers we will have a rough season ahead.

Last year seems a bit like fools gold to me. We played trash qbs

[Pez]

Last year seems a bit like fools gold to me. We played trash qbs

Fair point. We have six games with the same sort of trash QBs, outside of those, I think we have five good ones and fivethat are as good as Brisett

Good QBs:
Rivers
Mahomes
Roethlisberger
Brees
Ryan

Meh QBs:
Carr
Flacco
Fitzpatrick
Winston
Newton

[DrSpaceman]

Fair point. We have six games with the same sort of trash QBs, outside of those, I think we have five good ones and fivethat are as good as Brisett

Good QBs:
Rivers
Mahomes
Roethlisberger
Brees
Ryan

Meh QBs:
Carr
Flacco
Fitzpatrick
Winston
Newton

I am not sure about Newton. He could be in either category, depends on if he's healthy.

So far this year he has not looked healthy

But then Carolina has few WR options, especially with Funchess gone.

[DrSpaceman]

Last year seems a bit like fools gold to me. We played trash qbs

Yes, certainly

Will need a better pass rush and secondary play this year.

An old Eli Manning in an off year tore up this day for 2 to 3 quarters last season

[Dam8610]

My realistic expectation for Brissett is Tagliavoa, Herbert, or Fromm at QB in 2020.

[smitty46953]

My realistic expectation for Brissett is Tagliavoa, Herbert, or Fromm at QB in 2020.

You want to "Tank for Tua" ? Of the 3 listed I would rather have Herbert. Doubt available unless we trade up. :cool:

[VeveJones007]

You want to "Tank for Tua" ? Of the 3 listed I would rather have Herbert. Doubt available unless we trade up. :cool:

Having another 2nd rounder (from WAS) could help for any trade up scenario. The roster is also pretty deep on the surface, so there could be a player involved in a trade.

[Dam8610]

You want to "Tank for Tua" ? Of the 3 listed I would rather have Herbert. Doubt available unless we trade up. :cool:

No, but he'd fit Reich's offense. I'd rather have Herbert or Fromm.