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sherck
01-15-2019, 07:59 AM
If the draft was tomorrow, here’s how it would look for the Colts:

Round 1, No. 26
Round 2, No. 34 (from the Jets)
Round 2, No. 59
Round 3, No. 90
Round 4, No. 123
Round 4, No. 129-137 (projected compensatory pick)
Round 5, No. 154
Round 6, No. 187
Round 7, No. 218

The Colts are 3.125% of the league (1 of 32 teams).

They own 4.545% of the top 154 selections (7 of 154 picks) or about 150% more "quality" picks than they should be alloted.

IF some NFL team decides to roll the dice on Jacoby Brissett and offer a high enough pick for Ballard to decide that he can go find a new security blanket, this gets even better.

If Ballard and staff can even do half as well in the 2019 draft as they did in the 2018 draft.... However, I expect him to do nearly as well this year as last because:

Matt Miller

@nfldraftscout
Holy shit. Ballard is assembling the Avengers of scouting.

Kimberley A. Martin

@ByKimberleyA
Sources: #Jets sr. dir of college scouting Rex Hogan expected to join #Colts. So is #Seahawks exec Ed Dodds

510
8:49 PM - May 8, 2017
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Jason La Canfora

@JasonLaCanfora
Morocco Brown another great addition to the front office Chris Ballard is putting together in Indy. Smart hire

29
1:15 PM - May 10, 2017
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Eric Edholm

@Eric_Edholm
as well as Morocco Brown. tremendous scouting staff he's assembling

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Ballard's first draft was with Grigson's scouting staff.

Last season's draft was with HIS scouting staff.

I expect more of last year's results going forward.

The future is so bright, I gotta triple up! :cool::cool::cool:

GoBigBlue88
01-15-2019, 08:41 AM
And here's hoping Brissett can still be turned into a draft pick, too. I know what Ballard said yesterday, but this team would be foolish not to take a 2 if anyone comes calling. Though that may be at next trade deadline versus this draft, I realize, when teams are more desperate after injuries etc.

DrSpaceman
01-15-2019, 09:21 AM
Not sure what the trade value for Brissett is this offseason. There could be come quality back ups/starters available :

Foles
Possible Eli Manning
Joe Flacco
Andy Dalton maybe?

I mean those aren't great options for various reasons, but on the level of Brissett or better I would say

ukcolt
01-15-2019, 10:20 AM
I am not so sure about trading Brissett. We would then have another need and would likely have to use draft capital to get anyone of a tangible level. We have gone through what feels like a million backup QB's over the past 5 years, all of whom besides Hasselbeck have proven to be pretty much useless.

I know next to nothing about the QB's in this upcoming draft class at the moment. And have no idea whether or not there is a likelihood that there is a diamond in the rough that we could potentially draft in the middle rounds. I do know that i have no confidence that Philip Walker is the answer.

So gaining a middling 2nd rounder for a QB who has shown starting ability and then having to use a 3rd or 4th rounder to obtain an unproven rookie, doesn't sound all that appealing to me.

FatDT
01-15-2019, 10:48 AM
I'd take a 2nd rounder for Brissett in a second. He's a good backup but he's not better than Garopolo (who went for a 2nd rounder). Darius Leonard and Braden Smith were 2nd round picks.

omahacolt
01-15-2019, 11:10 AM
I would take a 2nd for Brissett in a heartbeat.

This team desperately needs playmakers. At wr and everywhere on defense

GoBigBlue88
01-15-2019, 11:11 AM
I am not so sure about trading Brissett. We would then have another need and would likely have to use draft capital to get anyone of a tangible level. We have gone through what feels like a million backup QB's over the past 5 years, all of whom besides Hasselbeck have proven to be pretty much useless.

I know next to nothing about the QB's in this upcoming draft class at the moment. And have no idea whether or not there is a likelihood that there is a diamond in the rough that we could potentially draft in the middle rounds. I do know that i have no confidence that Philip Walker is the answer.

So gaining a middling 2nd rounder for a QB who has shown starting ability and then having to use a 3rd or 4th rounder to obtain an unproven rookie, doesn't sound all that appealing to me.

Put simply: they would be crazy to balk at a 2 for Brissett.

Brissett cost the Colts a 7th round pick. You can absolutely find developmental QB2s if you want to develop behind Luck (or any franchise QB).

You don't hang on to Brissett because he's a good QB2 at a certain offer point. He's not a good QB1, as he showed, so if you have to play him, you're sunk anyway.

EDIT: Derp, obviously he was swapped for Dorsett, not a 7th. Not sure what trade I was thinking of. Still: buy low, sell high.

Pez
01-15-2019, 11:12 AM
I'm not sure about trading Brissett either.

While I agree with GBB88 that if someone offers us a 2nd round for him we should jump at it, I just don't see a team that is willing to do that. 3rd at best, but more likely a 4th.

He's more valuable here than a 3rd.

Luck4Reich
01-15-2019, 11:16 AM
I agree gimme a 2nd rounder for Brissett. If Luck goes down (I really hope not). Brissett isnt taking this team anywhere. We need to add as many weapons as possible while we have a healthy Luck!

smitty46953
01-15-2019, 11:18 AM
You don't hang on to Brissett because he's a good QB2 at a certain offer point. He's not a good QB1, as he showed, so if you have to play him, you're sunk anyway.

In all fairness he had like a half a second before the rush was on him last year. Might be a bit better with this line? Just an observation … :cool:

Luck4Reich
01-15-2019, 11:19 AM
I'm not sure about trading Brissett either.

While I agree with GBB88 that if someone offers us a 2nd round for him we should jump at it, I just don't see a team that is willing to do that. 3rd at best, but more likely a 4th.

He's more valuable here than a 3rd.

This is a 6-10 team at best if Brissett was QB this year. We would get more value from a draft pick.

southside asshole
01-15-2019, 11:24 AM
In all fairness he had like a half a second before the rush was on him last year. Might be a bit better with this line? Just an observation … :cool:

I actually had that thought at one point during the season when Luck took one of the few sacks allowed on him this year.

We don't really know how Brissett would fare behind this line. If he actually had all day to throw like we just enjoyed for 10+ games, and a viable running attack, I expect he would probably look considerably better.

That said, there are viable trade scenarios. Considering we gave up a 7th for him, he played one year that went nowhere, and (following this hypothetical) his perceived value appreciated up to a 2nd round pick, you work your margins there.

By that I mean - he's never going to be a franchise QB for us, and he'd never be worth more than a 2nd offered this offseason or next, so you turn that equity into liquid and don't look back.

AlwaysSunnyinIndy
01-15-2019, 11:34 AM
Brissett cost the Colts a 7th round pick.


Brissett was acquired via a player-for-player swap. The Colts traded former 1st round pick Phillip Dorsett for the former 3rd round draft pick Brissett.

southside asshole
01-15-2019, 11:42 AM
Brissett was acquired via a player-for-player swap. The Colts traded former 1st round pick Phillip Dorsett for the former 3rd round draft pick Brissett.

God that's right. And I knew that.

This is where it's gotten to - GBB can say something I know is wrong and I just accept it wholesale.

I might need to examine that.

GoBigBlue88
01-15-2019, 01:00 PM
Brissett was acquired via a player-for-player swap. The Colts traded former 1st round pick Phillip Dorsett for the former 3rd round draft pick Brissett.

Yup my bad. Idk what trade I was thinking of.

Still, Colts bought low and could sell high.

GoBigBlue88
01-15-2019, 01:03 PM
In all fairness he had like a half a second before the rush was on him last year. Might be a bit better with this line? Just an observation … :cool:

I don't think that's what happened at all. I think Brissett held the ball way too long in a bad offense and had trouble seeing the field.

Just think he's way overrated as a player in general. As a teammate? Awesome. As a big arm? Fine. But as a player, he struggles to read defenses. And, hell, he was asked to complete 1 pass this year (to Andrew Luck in the MIA game ... I'm discounting the Hail Mary because it was a Hail Mary) and almost screwed that up royally.

VeveJones007
01-15-2019, 01:17 PM
I think nearly everyone would take a 2nd for Brissett, but what if a team is only looking to move down (i.e. the Colts wouldn't gain a pick). As an example, what about Brissett + #89 to Miami for #48? That would be roughly a late 2nd rounder in value for Brissett.

rm1369
01-15-2019, 01:50 PM
I think nearly everyone would take a 2nd for Brissett, but what if a team is only looking to move down (i.e. the Colts wouldn't gain a pick). As an example, what about Brissett + #89 to Miami for #48? That would be roughly a late 2nd rounder in value for Brissett.

Depends what your draft board looks like and where you see deep drop offs in talent. But I’d say the answer is very likely yes.

I love having the security of believing Brissett could win a game or two in Luck’s absence. But the reality is you can find backups on the market that provide an equivalent level of short term security. Brissett’s real value is in his age and upside, which really mean very little for the Colts long term. And in some ways is actually a detriment, as you’d prefer an experienced hand and one that isn’t going to (rightly) leave for his (deserved) shot. It sucks, but the best thing for the Colts (and possibly Brissett) is a trade this offseason.

DrSpaceman
01-15-2019, 02:00 PM
Brissett is a serviceable back up that can come in for 2-3 games in a pinch and win 1-2.

I don't think he is any better or worse than most back ups in the league.

I do think with Reich he could make him a decent QB, play to his strengths Also with a better run game as we saw this year for the team, it would be easier on him

But I would take a second round pick for him if offered, just not sure you would get that. You can draft or find a back up somewhere to replace him with a lower round pick or in FA

FatDT
01-15-2019, 02:21 PM
Brissett is a serviceable back up that can come in for 2-3 games in a pinch and win 1-2.

I don't think he is any better or worse than most back ups in the league.

I do think with Reich he could make him a decent QB, play to his strengths Also with a better run game as we saw this year for the team, it would be easier on him

But I would take a second round pick for him if offered, just not sure you would get that. You can draft or find a back up somewhere to replace him with a lower round pick or in FA

I think your perception is pretty off. Brissett isn't irreplaceable, but he's definitely on a higher level than Nathan Peterman, for example. There are some bad backup QBs that can't handle much real NFL playing time. With a good team and coaching staff around him I think Brissett can win.

rm1369
01-15-2019, 02:25 PM
I think your perception is pretty off. Brissett isn't irreplaceable, but he's definitely on a higher level than Nathan Peterman, for example. There are some bad backup QBs that can't handle much real NFL playing time. With a good team and coaching staff around him I think Brissett can win.

I’d agree - but that’s why he’s more valuable as a trade commodity than as a backup QB. I don’t see the Colts being able to retain him long term. I’d guess he will want a shot as a full time starter and I think he’s shown enough to get one.

VeveJones007
01-15-2019, 02:27 PM
Matt Miller posted a new mock today. I think the note at the end is particularly interesting as we think about the best combined approach between UFA and the draft.

The Pick: N'Keal Harry, Wide Receiver, Arizona State

The Indianapolis Colts made a fantastic turnaround in 2018 en route to a playoff berth and Wild Card Round victory. They are close, but general manager Chris Ballard needs one more draft to get them into serious contention.

Ballard and his excellent team of scouts will be looking to improve the offense and could do so by adding a marquee target for Andrew Luck in the first round. N'Keal Harry has excellent size (6'4", 213 lbs) and has dominated after the catch at Arizona State.

The Colts do have needs on defense, especially a pass-rusher, but the free-agent class this year is rich at the edge. Paying for a pass rush and drafting wide receivers is the better move this offseason.

Harry has the type of size that I think Ballard wants (over a guy like Marquise Brown). Definitely someone to keep an eye on and see how he runs at the combine.

FatDT
01-15-2019, 02:29 PM
He's right, there are many pass rushers in their contract year. But realistically how many will get to FA?

Pez
01-15-2019, 06:29 PM
He's right, there are many pass rushers in their contract year. But realistically how many will get to FA?

I think we need to plan to address the pass rush through the draft, be conservative with FA's, but also not afraid to jump at someone IF the come available.

Chromeburn
01-15-2019, 06:37 PM
Matt Miller posted a new mock today. I think the note at the end is particularly interesting as we think about the best combined approach between UFA and the draft.



Harry has the type of size that I think Ballard wants (over a guy like Marquise Brown). Definitely someone to keep an eye on and see how he runs at the combine.

Ballard talked about bolstering the lines quite a bit in his post presser. I have a hard time seeing him drafting a receiver 1st. Especially with all the line talent in this draft. I’ve seen quite a few mocks with a WR first. Just don’t see it happening.

I’ve seen Harry play a couple times. Makes great catches, but I worry about his ability to separate. I want to see his 40 and 3-come Times first. I seeso many of his catches contested and the pac-12 doesn’t have that great of corners.

Pez
01-15-2019, 06:39 PM
I guess I just cant imagine someone paying a second for:

a 25 year old QB
with a 5-12 record as a starter
with 13 TDs and 7 picks

Russell Wilson was a 3rd
Derek Carr a 2nd
Andy Dalton a 2nd
Colin Kaepernick a 2nd
Dak Prescott 4th
Nick Foles 3rd
Tyrod Taylor 6th

It just seems like whatever team could possibly give us a second for brissett would do a great deal better by picking a QB with that second instead. I dont see brissett as being better that Carr or Dalton. What am I missing?

JAFF
01-15-2019, 06:51 PM
Couple of things:

1. Morroco Brown started scouting with the Colts as an intern.

2. In the IndyStar, Ballard said he's got to be bowled over with an offer to trade Brissett.

Racehorse
01-15-2019, 07:15 PM
I guess I just cant imagine someone paying a second for:

a 25 year old QB
with a 5-12 record as a starter
with 13 TDs and 7 picks

Russell Wilson was a 3rd
Derek Carr a 2nd
Andy Dalton a 2nd
Colin Kaepernick a 2nd
Dak Prescott 4th
Nick Foles 3rd
Tyrod Taylor 6th

It just seems like whatever team could possibly give us a second for brissett would do a great deal better by picking a QB with that second instead. I dont see brissett as being better that Carr or Dalton. What am I missing?
Not sure this actually relates to your post, but a backup QB doesn't see the field often, so why do we value them so highly? Other backups seem to get much more playing time.

AlwaysSunnyinIndy
01-15-2019, 07:37 PM
Not sure this actually relates to your post, but a backup QB doesn't see the field often, so why do we value them so highly? Other backups seem to get much more playing time.


Because when you don't value that position highly, you end up with Curtis Painter filling the role.

GoBigBlue88
01-15-2019, 08:10 PM
Because when you don't value that position highly, you end up with Curtis Painter filling the role.

Which is the difference between the 1st pick in the draft (the Painter/Orlovsky season) and the 4th pick in the draft (the Brissett season).

If Luck is ever out for a long time, Colts are boned. At that point, you may as well embrace your draft position.

DrSpaceman
01-15-2019, 08:13 PM
Which is the difference between the 1st pick in the draft (the Painter/Orlovsky season) and the 4th pick in the draft (the Brissett season).

If Luck is ever out for a long time, Colts are boned. At that point, you may as well embrace your draft position.

I don't think anyone believes otherwise

On the other hand, back up that can come in for 3-4 games and win 1-2 instead of going 0-4, a stopgap to keep a team in contention until the starter comes back, can make or break a season in this league.

AlwaysSunnyinIndy
01-15-2019, 08:25 PM
Which is the difference between the 1st pick in the draft (the Painter/Orlovsky season) and the 4th pick in the draft (the Brissett season).



It is even closer - the Colts had the 3rd pick in the draft before trading down with the Jets.


On the other hand, back up that can come in for 3-4 games and win 1-2 instead of going 0-4, a stopgap to keep a team in contention until the starter comes back, can make or break a season in this league.

+1; there is so much parity in the league, one or two extra wins can be huge

Luck4Reich
01-15-2019, 09:12 PM
I guess I just cant imagine someone paying a second for:

a 25 year old QB
with a 5-12 record as a starter
with 13 TDs and 7 picks

Russell Wilson was a 3rd
Derek Carr a 2nd
Andy Dalton a 2nd
Colin Kaepernick a 2nd
Dak Prescott 4th
Nick Foles 3rd
Tyrod Taylor 6th

It just seems like whatever team could possibly give us a second for brissett would do a great deal better by picking a QB with that second instead. I dont see brissett as being better that Carr or Dalton. What am I missing?

Value tends to go up based on need and desperation. Like it's been said his value going into draft may not be high but let a 2-0 team start next year and their QB go down watch how much his value rises.

GoBigBlue88
01-15-2019, 09:52 PM
I don't think anyone believes otherwise

On the other hand, back up that can come in for 3-4 games and win 1-2 instead of going 0-4, a stopgap to keep a team in contention until the starter comes back, can make or break a season in this league.

I just don't think you keep a 2nd round value (IF a team makes that trade) in your pocket -- given it has an expiration date -- on the chance you may have to play that card. The chances your 2nd round pick impacts your franchise long-term >>>> the chances that QB is ever called upon to keep your season alive and does so.

If Brissett walks, highest Colts would get would be an end-of-3rd comp pick. Ballard might play for that (and I doubt it would even be that high), but give me the 2nd round pick if anyone comes calling.

rcubed
01-15-2019, 09:59 PM
Yeah, sounds like ballard and the team really him. Ballard said he would have to be blown away by an offer. As NL4C said, that’s probably a deperate team during next season. I think its his last year under contract so i hope they get something for him unless tbey plan on resigning him.

Dewey 5
01-15-2019, 11:59 PM
Ballard talked about bolstering the lines quite a bit in his post presser. I have a hard time seeing him drafting a receiver 1st. Especially with all the line talent in this draft. I’ve seen quite a few mocks with a WR first. Just don’t see it happening.

I’ve seen Harry play a couple times. Makes great catches, but I worry about his ability to separate. I want to see his 40 and 3-come Times first. I seeso many of his catches contested and the pac-12 doesn’t have that great of corners.

A wr that fights for the ball is a good thing.

Chromeburn
01-16-2019, 01:14 AM
A wr that fights for the ball is a good thing.

Yes. But a WR that has to constantly fight for the ball because he can’t separate is not. That may be ok for a vet that has slowed down, don’t want to draft a guy like that. And a lot of the WRs this draft look like that kind of guy to me.

omahacolt
01-16-2019, 07:06 AM
I don't think anyone believes otherwise

On the other hand, back up that can come in for 3-4 games and win 1-2 instead of going 0-4, a stopgap to keep a team in contention until the starter comes back, can make or break a season in this league.

Build a better team. Pats and Steelers do it. Make a good game plan

Luck4Reich
01-16-2019, 08:01 AM
Build a better team. Pats and Steelers do it. Make a good game plan

This is the way... Pat's and Steelers haven't given a shit who they have kept as their backup in the last 15-20 years.

JAFF
01-16-2019, 08:11 AM
Because when you don't value that position highly, you end up with Curtis Painter filling the role.

That wasn't the only reason. When you have a tight cap, and a QB who wants to take every snap in practice, not many guys want to sit and watch and rust

Coltsalr
01-16-2019, 08:32 AM
I guess I just cant imagine someone paying a second for:

a 25 year old QB
with a 5-12 record as a starter
with 13 TDs and 7 picks

Russell Wilson was a 3rd
Derek Carr a 2nd
Andy Dalton a 2nd
Colin Kaepernick a 2nd
Dak Prescott 4th
Nick Foles 3rd
Tyrod Taylor 6th

It just seems like whatever team could possibly give us a second for brissett would do a great deal better by picking a QB with that second instead. I dont see brissett as being better that Carr or Dalton. What am I missing?

Sam Bradford was traded for a 1st and 4th.

If guys like Flacco/Foles are setting the QB trade market then the Colts will have a very good idea of the going-rate and should be able to find a buyer.

DrSpaceman
01-16-2019, 08:52 AM
I just don't think you keep a 2nd round value (IF a team makes that trade) in your pocket -- given it has an expiration date -- on the chance you may have to play that card. The chances your 2nd round pick impacts your franchise long-term >>>> the chances that QB is ever called upon to keep your season alive and does so.

If Brissett walks, highest Colts would get would be an end-of-3rd comp pick. Ballard might play for that (and I doubt it would even be that high), but give me the 2nd round pick if anyone comes calling.

If someone offered a second for Brissett, I agree, you make that trade. Especially given the position the Colts are in where I still feel like there are multiple areas of need for the team.

If the team was otherwise set and you are just looking for the one or two players to put you over the top, you would keep Brissett no matter what. he is nice insurance to have and I think is a solid back up. Reich with him could manage if needed for a short period

But with where the team is and what ballard is doing and wants to do, you trade him if the right deal comes along.

FatDT
01-16-2019, 10:35 AM
This is the way... Pat's and Steelers haven't given a shit who they have kept as their backup in the last 15-20 years.

The Pats have absolutely given a shit who they kept. BB wanted to franchise Garopolo while Brady was under contract. They also had Cassel for a long time, which allowed them to go 11-5 without Brady.

Coltsalr
01-16-2019, 11:16 AM
The Pats have absolutely given a shit who they kept. BB wanted to franchise Garopolo while Brady was under contract. They also had Cassel for a long time, which allowed them to go 11-5 without Brady.

Hell, they were the ones that drafted Jacoby Brissett (with a 3rd rounder) as well.

And the Steelers drafted Landry Jones in the 4th round in 2013, Josh Dobbs in the 4th round in 2017, and Mason Rudolph in the 3rd round in 2018.

Not sure what the hell NL4C is talking about here.

rcubed
01-16-2019, 01:07 PM
and its rumored that the reason BB traded brissett was because he's mad at kraft for being up brady's ass constantly.

Dam8610
01-16-2019, 01:43 PM
and its rumored that the reason BB traded brissett was because he's mad at kraft for being up brady's ass constantly.

Good. Let him screw their franchise over because of petty bullshit.

AlwaysSunnyinIndy
01-28-2019, 12:21 AM
I guess I just cant imagine someone paying a second for:

a 25 year old QB
with a 5-12 record as a starter
with 13 TDs and 7 picks



There was a recent article which stated that the Texans were willing to give up a high 2014 second round draft pick (the first pick of the second round - Pick #33) for QB Brian Hoyer. Prior to that year, Hoyer had been a career back-up and was:

a 29 year old QB
with a 3-1 record as a starter
with 7 TDs and 6 picks

Hoyer did play well in the few games he played for the Browns in 2013 before he was injured and IR'ed.

But, Browns are going to Brown and CLEVELAND nixed the deal.

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/25797430/inside-cleveland-browns-front-office-where-hope-history-collide