Colts 2018 Draft is the Best of the Century per Pro Football Reference

[Chaka]

Using Pro Football Reference's proprietary "Approximate Value" statistic, the Colts' 2018 draft is the best of any draft by any NFL team this century - and by a fairly wide margin:

https://twitter.com/Crimealytics/status/1083194968666193920

Here's an explanation of the statistic, if you're curious:

https://www.sports-reference.com/blog/approximate-value-methodology/

[Pez]

Amazing.... especially how down the media was on the Leonard pick.

Would be interesting to see a full-off season score... taking into account that we got Ebron, Muhammad, mitchell etc.

Would be interesting to see if Tyquan lewis would have developed more if not for the IR.

His only miss seems to be Fountain.

[DrSpaceman]

Amazing.... especially how down the media was on the Leonard pick.

Would be interesting to see a full-off season score... taking into account that we got Ebron, Muhammad, mitchell etc.

Would be interesting to see if Tyquan lewis would have developed more if not for the IR.

His only miss seems to be Fountain.

Lewis and also Cain being lost to injury, will be interested to see what they can do next season.

Cain especially, would be great if he could develop into a solid #2 or even #3 option.

[TheMugwump]

Can you imagine if Cain ends up being the best of all the players from this draft?

Crazy to even consider, but he WAS the standout of camp, up until he was injured. If he is more impactful than Leonard and Q, that's insanity.

(I mean, he won't be, but I can imagine it...)

[Dam8610]

Amazing.... especially how down the media was on the Leonard pick.

Would be interesting to see a full-off season score... taking into account that we got Ebron, Muhammad, mitchell etc.

Would be interesting to see if Tyquan lewis would have developed more if not for the IR.

His only miss seems to be Fountain.

Leonard's AV was MVP caliber in a normal year. It was 18. For reference purposes, Peyton Manning only achieved an 18 AV 6 times in his career, and Andrew Luck has yet to do it (career high of 16 achieved twice). I don't think I've ever seen a guard have a 15 AV, but Quenton Nelson has done a lot of things I never thought I'd see this year (including giving the Colts an imposing attitude along the OL).

Darius Leonard = 18
Quenton Nelson = 15
Braden Smith = 6
Nyheim Hines = 6
Matthew Adams = 4
Kemoko Turay = 3
Tyquan Lewis = 3
Jordan Wilkins = 3
Zaire Franklin = 2

Total = 60

It helps to have 2 All-Pros and several players who play key roles.

[Dam8610]

Can you imagine if Cain ends up being the best of all the players from this draft?

Crazy to even consider, but he WAS the standout of camp, up until he was injured. If he is more impactful than Leonard and Q, that's insanity.

(I mean, he won't be, but I can imagine it...)

If Cain as a WR manages to do better than 18 AV, then Luck will break the TD record and this offense will be fun to watch.

[Oldcolt]

If these guys continue to develop this may go down as the best draft ever

[VeveJones007]

Amazing.... especially how down the media was on the Leonard pick.

Would be interesting to see a full-off season score... taking into account that we got Ebron, Muhammad, mitchell etc.

Would be interesting to see if Tyquan lewis would have developed more if not for the IR.

His only miss seems to be Fountain.

FWIW, Matt Miller tweeted a mea culpa last weekend about Leonard. He had him ranked 77th going into the draft because he overemphasized his size and playing against small school competition. Then he had a podcast on Monday where they re-drafted the 2018 1st round and he picked Leonard 8th to Chicago as the 1st LB off the board.

[sherck]

Leonard's AV was MVP caliber in a normal year. It was 18. For reference purposes, Peyton Manning only achieved an 18 AV 6 times in his career, and Andrew Luck has yet to do it (career high of 16 achieved twice). I don't think I've ever seen a guard have a 15 AV, but Quenton Nelson has done a lot of things I never thought I'd see this year (including giving the Colts an imposing attitude along the OL).

Darius Leonard = 18
Quenton Nelson = 15
Braden Smith = 6
Nyheim Hines = 6
Matthew Adams = 4
Kemoko Turay = 3
Tyquan Lewis = 3
Jordan Wilkins = 3
Zaire Franklin = 2

Total = 60

It helps to have 2 All-Pros and several players who play key roles.
The 6 on Smith seems a bit low. A full time starter who will hold down his job for a long time with abover average / superior play is typically a 9 - 12 in their system.

The rest of the scores seem about right. Cain will hopefully add to that next season.

Walk Worthy,

[VeveJones007]

The 6 on Smith seems a bit low. A full time starter who will hold down his job for a long time with abover average / superior play is typically a 9 - 12 in their system.

The rest of the scores seem about right. Cain will hopefully add to that next season.

Walk Worthy,

Perhaps it's an accruing stat like baseball WAR, where the more games you play, the number has an opportunity to be higher. That's to say that if you extrapolate Smith's 6 to a full 16 game schedule, maybe he falls in that 9-12 range.

[Dam8610]

If these guys continue to develop this may go down as the best draft ever

It'd be tough to beat the Steelers' four Hall of Famers draft.

[Dam8610]

Perhaps it's an accruing stat like baseball WAR, where the more games you play, the number has an opportunity to be higher. That's to say that if you extrapolate Smith's 6 to a full 16 game schedule, maybe he falls in that 9-12 range.

I believe this is accurate.

[YDFL Commish]

Historically how does this compare to the Steelers '74 draft of Swann, Stallworth, Lambert and Webster?

[Butter]

Historically how does this compare to the Steelers '74 draft of Swann, Stallworth, Lambert and Webster?

I will get back to you in 15-20 years

[Dam8610]

Historically how does this compare to the Steelers '74 draft of Swann, Stallworth, Lambert and Webster?

In their rookie years according to PFR:

Jack Lambert = 8
Lynn Swann = 4
John Stallworth = 4
Jim Wolf = 4
Charles Davis = 4
Rich Druschel = 3
Mike Webster = 2
Jimmy Allen = 1

Total = 30

As rookies the Colts players did better, but the above players won the Super Bowl as rookies. Also, to match 4 HOF players, the Colts will need Leonard and Nelson to continue their level of play, Smith to up his a bit, and a breakout from Cain, Turay, or Lewis.