Solid preview article from Stampede Blue

[sherck]

Located here (https://www.stampedeblue.com/2019/1/8/18173191/can-the-colts-go-on-the-road-and-punch-the-chiefs-in-the-mouth).

Highlight:

The first 11 games of the season, they [KC] averaged 36.73 points per game. Over their last 5 they are down to 32.2....If you remove the Raiders games from the calculation [a terrible team that KC hung 40 on and we hung 42 on] and just look at their average against the Ravens, Chargers, and Seahawks [3 playoff teams], it puts their average points per game at 28.67.

KC is a team that has been slowing down over the course of the season and looks less potent without Hunt in the backfield. The Colts have been surging for the past 11 weeks and have played some of their best football recently.

I agree with another poster, if our defense can force a combo of six [Punts/FGs/TOs/Turnovers on Downs] for the game, I think we win this one. We will not stop their offense althogether but if our Tampa-2 can "bend and not break" to prevent some TDs, our offense can find a lot of success against their defense.

Walk Worthy,

[VeveJones007]

Hey! I said 7 combined turnovers/punts/field goals!

[sherck]

Hey! I said 7 combined turnovers/punts/field goals!
Yeah, I know.

I am hoping for 3 stops per half. That will hopefully translate into KC scoring no more than 17 points per half or 34 points total. I think that wins the game!

But 7? That may be a bridge too far! :)

Walk Worthy,

[Dam8610]

The Chiefs haven't exactly looked like the unstoppable offensive force they were at ther beginning of the season since releasing Kareem Hunt. In the 3 games they've played since releasing Hunt that weren't against the Raiders, the Chiefs:

- Went 1-2.
- Averaged 28.7 points per game (still impressive, but well below their season average)
- Averaged 30.3(!) points allowed per game
- Averaged 102.7 rushing yards per game (2 of 3 under 100 yards)
- Averaged 1.7 turnovers per game, with a -1.7 average per game differential.

So, unless you think the Colts are as bad as the Raiders, this seems like a vulnerable team with a good passing game and not much else going for it. The Colts seem to be the much more complete team. I don't think it will take some extraordinary effort from any one player or the team as a whole for the Colts to win this one. All I think it would take is them playing their game and executing well. This Chiefs team seems very vulnerable to me.

[Phelanka7]

If this ends up being a "weather game" (snow is forecast) then I like the Colts chances even more. I think this team is better built for that kind of game.

[VeveJones007]

The Chiefs haven't exactly looked like the unstoppable offensive force they were at ther beginning of the season since releasing Kareem Hunt. In the 3 games they've played since releasing Hunt that weren't against the Raiders, the Chiefs:

- Went 1-2.
- Averaged 28.7 points per game (still impressive, but well below their season average)
- Averaged 30.3(!) points allowed per game
- Averaged 102.7 rushing yards per game (2 of 3 under 100 yards)
- Averaged 1.7 turnovers per game, with a -1.7 average per game differential.

So, unless you think the Colts are as bad as the Raiders, this seems like a vulnerable team with a good passing game and not much else going for it. The Colts seem to be the much more complete team. I don't think it will take some extraordinary effort from any one player or the team as a whole for the Colts to win this one. All I think it would take is them playing their game and executing well. This Chiefs team seems very vulnerable to me.

The Chiefs defense gave up 18 ppg at home and 35 ppg on the road. In 5/8 road games, the Chiefs gave up at least 33 points. The Chiefs did not surrender 30 points in any home game this year.

Colts need to get off to a strong start because that defense is built to rush the passer with a lead.

[Oldcolt]

We are a better team. Better offensive line, punter (in this cold it counts), FG kicker, quarterback and run/scoring defense. Our backs are just as good or better and we have a better coaching staff. We both play our best and Colts move on.

[FatDT]

We are a better team. Better offensive line, punter (in this cold it counts), FG kicker, quarterback and run/scoring defense. Our backs are just as good or better and we have a better coaching staff. We both play our best and Colts move on.

For this year specifically I don't think you can say Luck is better than Mahomes. Reid is very creative and will probably throw some things at our defense they're not ready for.

That said I think our completeness as a team matches up well with their overwhelming strength on offense, especially in the cold and if there is snow.

Chiefs deserve to be favored, but a Colts win is reasonable to expect.

[Dam8610]

The Chiefs defense gave up 18 ppg at home and 35 ppg on the road. In 5/8 road games, the Chiefs gave up at least 33 points. The Chiefs did not surrender 30 points in any home game this year.

Colts need to get off to a strong start because that defense is built to rush the passer with a lead.

Exactly, their whole team is built around playing one type of game. Make them play a different game.

[VeveJones007]

Exactly, their whole team is built around playing one type of game. Make them play a different game.

And if the Colts fall behind by two scores, the game is probably over.

[Dam8610]

And if the Colts fall behind by two scores, the game is probably over.

Obviously the Colts don't want to fall behind by two scores, but the worst case scenario isn't the only one that can happen. There's a reason the Chiefs earned the #1 seed, they're a good team. They just also look very vulnerable to the strengths of this Colts team to me.