Quick thoughts on Jaguars-Colts

[GoBigBlue88]

1. Relieved the Colts won, but they probably deserved to lose. That second half was garbage. Completely inexcusable on both sides of the ball. If I were Ballard, I would be pissed about a lot of what I saw.

2. Big picture on offense: the scheme is great when they keep their foot on the gas and keep defenses guessing. They got hyperconservative in the second half, and it cost them. Honestly, I think when you start running out the clock like they tried, it starts making your margin players like Alie-Cox worse when they're actually asked to do something. Not saying Alie-Cox necessarily catches that if they're playing more aggressively, but also don't think Alie-Cox is the margin for error if they are.

3. This team forgets about TY Hilton for way too long. That's fine in the first half, but it shouldn't take the fourth quarter of games to remind them "oh yeah, we probably need to get this guy involved to win".

4. There should be a bullshit INT stat that's separate from regular INTs. Andrew Luck has thus thrown 4 bullshit INTs this season.

5. Love how creative the playcalling was in the first half, though. Jaguars were reeling. Busting coverages all half. I do think the Jaguars changed something with Jalen Ramsey dropping to more MOF coverage in the second half that threw off the Colts.

Related: Colts were just weird about their final 2 third downs of the game. Out of a timeout, an obvious run up the middle with Mack that gets stuffed? In FG territory, a 15-yard out route to TY Hilton with zero margin for error? Just felt like there was none of the creativity or space game Colts used in the first half. I think Reich kinda balked in the clutch, honestly.

6. Honestly, let's say the Colts go out and get a pass-rusher and 2-3 corners who better fit this system. Are they contenders? I don't think so. I think this scheme is so systemically flawed, it's not going to look remotely good without a Khalil Mack or Nick Bosa type rusher. And I don't see the Colts getting that any time soon.

7. Tyquan Lewis was about what I expected. Flashed on 1-2 plays, looked like a rookie on most others. Very intrigued to see more of him going forward. Huge plus is he keeps Al-Q Muhammad off the field. I wonder how he will/won't pair with Kemoko Turay.

8. ...the answer to that may be getting Denico Autry off the field on 3rd downs. Which is fine, because Autry is garbage.

9. Margus Hunt has turned back into a pumpkin.

10. I'm done fighting for Quincy Wilson. He's not just bad, but he made a business decision on a screen today. Doesn't have heart or consistent skill. I'm done.

11. Arthur Maulet had a cut-me game today.

12. The only things holding this defense together were Jabaal Sheard (who was pretty bad until the 4th quarter), Kenny Moore (who wasn't perfect, but at least made some plays), Clayton Geathers (who incidentally may have had his best game of the season) and Anthony Walker (who still missed a pretty key tackle). Miss me with anyone else's performance today. Gar-bage. Yes, even Darius Leonard.

13. Weird to see kick coverage unit struggle so much though. Thankfully the coaching staff got the memo to kick deep in the second half.

14. Dontrelle Inman's hands are the quiet hero for a second straight game.

15. I'm probably writing this more shaded by the second half than anything, so I would be remiss if I didn't say it was FUN watching this team in the first half. But only in the first half. Glass half full fans should say: the plays are there to be made, and guys like Hines/Alie-Cox are too young/inexperienced/leaned-upon to make them.

[JAFF]

They are not good enough to compete for the playoffs. They are good enough on offense to scare people, and on defense, it's a mess. They need a play making pass rusher and a playmaking D back.

[Colt Classic]

I usually despise the quick-fix, overpaying for a name solution, but if the team needed a Mack-type to make the defense great, then practically no price would've been too high for him when the money is there for such a splurge. Otherwise, get ready for throwing darts in the draft and/or hoping to find a reasonable facsimile on the cheap in free agency.

[Oldcolt]

This team, while not ready to win at the level we want, is learning how to win football games. We are definitely moving in the right direction

[YDFL Commish]

I'll have to say this was Eberflus worst effort of the season.

He had the the let Bortles beat you concept down pat. But when you don't pressure Bortles or challenge his receivers, then you're making it much easier for him to beat you, and he almost did.

I thought Sheard was an absolute beast in the 2nd half, and that this was Walker's best game as a Colt.

[IndyNorm]

Couldn't agree more. Glad we won, but we definitely didn't deserve it. If the Jagoffs had anyone better at QB then we lose (even though we still make Bortles look like a pro bowler). Great performance by the O in the first half, bad performance by the D in the first half, god awful performance by both the D and O in the 2nd half, and ST was horrible all game long (we would have been better off kicking the ball out of bounds on every kickoff).

I agree on the play calling. Aggressive and great in the first half, but too cute (end around to Rogers) and conservative in the 2nd half. Felt like at times I was watching Clappy and Chud at the helm, especially on the 3 and out where we ran up the middle 3 times. I hope Reich learned this.......

Also, seems like we went away from Ebron in the 2nd half (maybe Jax decided to take him away).

[nate505]

The only nice thing I'll say is that these were the games the Colts would blow last year, and they didn't for at least this game. It's refreshing to see...but man that 2nd half was beyond brutal.

[FatDT]

The DL has regressed. I fault them for a lot of the overall bad play. They were easily blocked on pass plays, easily moved on run plays. The back 7 didn’t look good but a lot of that looked like scheme to me. Bad coverages with big holes in the zones that Bortles was able to easily exploit. The shitty tackling is on the players though obviously.

I probably won’t defend Wilson anymore either, bad game by him. But he’s clearly not a zone corner. Miscast.

2nd half offense was as dogshit as anything the defense did all day. Just really bad play calling, bad concentration by players that, whether they’re backups/role players or not, need to catch the fucking ball. Anybody could’ve easily sniffed out that terrible quick handoff to Rogers, they’re lucky Campbell didn’t snag the ball himself.

We’re killing the Jags all first half with our TEs. What happened? I don’t think Ebron got a single target in the 2nd. Did Doyle? Granted they barely had the ball but still, when they did, it was dumb runs at the wrong time or the receiver dropping an easy pass.

Yeah the 1st half was a blast to watch. But given how dominant they were they still allowed the Jags to stay too close with shit kick coverage and lazy/incompetent coverage. Too many easy chunk plays given up to one of the worst starting QBs in the NFL. I didn’t feel that good going into halftime because I was afraid of exactly what happened. Colts got lucky. Neither team really deserved to win that game.

[JAFF]

I usually despise the quick-fix, overpaying for a name solution, but if the team needed a Mack-type to make the defense great, then practically no price would've been too high for him when the money is there for such a splurge. Otherwise, get ready for throwing darts in the draft and/or hoping to find a reasonable facsimile on the cheap in free agency.

Looking at this last draft, it wasn't throwing darts

[JAFF]

Everybody is learning this year. Including the HC. I hope he uses the same critical abiltiy with player as he does with the play calling.

They stepped off the gas. Let Luck be Luck. I can live with that. Don't take the ball out of his hands.

The D needs help. They played hard. The special teams missed on KO and FG. So it's not just one thing.

But............they won. Learing to win is hard. Learning from your own mistakes even harder.

[YDFL Commish]

easily moved on run plays.

The Jags had an average of 2.7 yds per run play. The DL did their job in that department.

The pass rush is another matter. Hunt has disappeared, Sheard's effort can't be denied, but he's not elite, in speed or moves...and yeah, he gets held a lot. Autry is offering nothing. Sad to say, but we need Turay back in a hurry.

[Colt Classic]

Looking at this last draft, it wasn't throwing darts

There's a bullseye on a dart board, but it's not easy to hit it consistently.

[JMichael557]

Isn't the lack of pass rush being affected by the fact that the other teams receivers are running down the field wide open. No need for the QB to hold the ball.

[YDFL Commish]

Isn't the lack of pass rush being affected by the fact that the other teams receivers are running down the field wide open. No need for the QB to hold the ball.

That certainly is part of it. But the idea behind this defensive scheme is to get the ball to come out quick. There was very little of that today.

[DrSpaceman]

part of the second half was, again, drops and mistakes.

Two key drops were killers, one for an INT when they are about to score and go up two scores, I believe, and another that just prevented a realistic chance for a first down deep in own territory. ANd they were EASY catches to make.

But yes, offense and play calling I just didn't get. You aren't making a 3rd and one up the middle against this D. Would have been a good spot for a sweep, or play action and roll out luck.

On the other hand, once again, no sacks, very little pressure on Luck.

The bad part was, again, no sacks, very little pressure on Bortles. They did get in there for a couple of key blocked passes and arm grabs on key downs.

really though I think this is the team we all expected at the beginning of the year. Around .500. Good or great offense but bad defense with no pass rush and a bad secondary.

Also.....come on Hooker, you have to make that tackle on Moncrief.

And Walker......you have to make that play on the fake punt.

[Chromeburn]

We are probably a .500 team or slightly below that. We need to upgrade our WR’s, dline, and secondary. It’s not going to happen this year. We really don’t belong in the playoffs. We can beat bad teams but we can’t beat the best teams. Basically the same mediocrity that we had under Pagano. The difference is we have some promising young talent now.

But we need another good draft and maybe another few additions in free agency. The nice thing is we should be more attractive to free agents with lots of cash and a healthy Luck. There is no magic fix, gonna take some time.

One thing this offense needs to learn is to not take their foot off the pedal. They tried to run out the clock, and that isn’t enough against a good defense like the jags. Keep scoring keep going, don’t stop. Too many teams will come back on you. We probably should have lost this game but luckily the jags wanted to blow it just as much as we did.

[JAFF]

We are probably a .500 team or slightly below that. We need to upgrade our WR’s, dline, and secondary. It’s not going to happen this year. We really don’t belong in the playoffs. We can beat bad teams but we can’t beat the best teams. Basically the same mediocrity that we had under Pagano. The difference is we have some promising young talent now.

But we need another good draft and maybe another few additions in free agency. The nice thing is we should be more attractive to free agents with lots of cash and a healthy Luck. There is no magic fix, gonna take some time.

One thing this offense needs to learn is to not take their foot off the pedal. They tried to run out the clock, and that isn’t enough against a good defense like the jags. Keep scoring keep going, don’t stop. Too many teams will come back on you. We probably should have lost this game but luckily the jags wanted to blow it just as much as we did.

It's different from last year. The game planning, the effort, the talent level, the energy.

It's not a perfect team. It's a FUN team.

[Chromeburn]

It's different from last year. The game planning, the effort, the talent level, the energy.

It's not a perfect team. It's a FUN team.

Sure the arrow is pointing up. I think the coaching is light years better. But we need more playmakers before we are going to compete with KC, LA, and NE.

[Racehorse]

Sure the arrow is pointing up. I think the coaching is light years better. But we need more playmakers before we are going to compete with KC, LA, and NE.

or the Saints

[Luck4Reich]

or the Saints

The Saints could drop 80 on this defense.

[FatDT]

The Jags had an average of 2.7 yds per run play. The DL did their job in that department.

The pass rush is another matter. Hunt has disappeared, Sheard's effort can't be denied, but he's not elite, in speed or moves...and yeah, he gets held a lot. Autry is offering nothing. Sad to say, but we need Turay back in a hurry.

They had some solid stops for a loss, but they also got moved out of the way for chunks of yardage at critical times.

[YDFL Commish]

And Walker......you have to make that play on the fake punt.

He read the play...he made the play...he just let him get 1 foot to much. It happens. A Pagano coached team is totally unprepared for that play.

[Thorgrim]

Excellent observations as usual. Can you elaborate on point 6? Wondering what is fundamentally wrong and how you address it moving forward.

[Colt Classic]

Sure the arrow is pointing up. I think the coaching is light years better. But we need more playmakers before we are going to compete with KC, LA, and NE.

The Bears were about as bad as the Colts were last year, but I don't think they could beat them. Probably a more relevant comparison than the other teams.

[jasperhobbs]

Does Al Woods playy or is he hurt? Always thought he was a good run stopper.

[GoBigBlue88]

Excellent observations as usual. Can you elaborate on point 6? Wondering what is fundamentally wrong and how you address it moving forward.

Multi-faceted:

1. Their drop depth seems consistently off. 3rd-and-11, they'll drop to 15. There is no successful scheme that does that.

2. It's not a pure zone scheme. They play Cover 1 man maybe 5-10% of the game. Problem is, they are AWFUL in man coverage and show it from pre-snap. I think they disguised coverage effectively once today, but other than that, they tell you what they're going to do before the snap EVERY play.

And that MIGHT work if you have Freeney, Mathis, Sanders, Brackett etc. But I don't know if fans realize how rare it is to have the talent some of those 2005, 2007, 2009 Colts defenses had. You CAN play this scheme a bit when you have the talent those units had, but it takes YEARS of drafting extremely well. I don't know if the Colts have that timeline available with Luck.

3. The scheme largely renders its safeties irrelevant. No one is going to test Malik Hooker deep. It's not because they are scared of Hooker, but rather because there is no need to throw deep when the MOF or 10-15 yard comebacks are always automatically conceded.

It feels like they play 9 on 11 sometimes when they play a Cover-2 shell where safeties drop 20+ yards off the ball, and everyone else drops 10-15 off themselves. Why would any QB ever throw deep then?

4. Even if the DL was playing well for argument's sake (it wasn't, and Hunt and Autry have been irrelevant for weeks now), they wouldn't be disrupting anything because, like today, they allow these little RB leakout flares on a quick step drop that are no-brainers for QBs and gain at least 5-10 yards every time.

[FatDT]

2. It's not a pure zone scheme. They play Cover 1 man maybe 5-10% of the game. Problem is, they are AWFUL in man coverage and show it from pre-snap. I think they disguised coverage effectively once today, but other than that, they tell you what they're going to do before the snap EVERY play.

And that MIGHT work if you have Freeney, Mathis, Sanders, Brackett etc. But I don't know if fans realize how rare it is to have the talent some of those 2005, 2007, 2009 Colts defenses had. You CAN play this scheme a bit when you have the talent those units had, but it takes YEARS of drafting extremely well. I don't know if the Colts have that timeline available with Luck.

3. The scheme largely renders its safeties irrelevant. No one is going to test Malik Hooker deep. It's not because they are scared of Hooker, but rather because there is no need to throw deep when the MOF or 10-15 yard comebacks are always automatically conceded.

It feels like they play 9 on 11 sometimes when they play a Cover-2 shell where safeties drop 20+ yards off the ball, and everyone else drops 10-15 off themselves. Why would any QB ever throw deep then?

These two points, especially #3, have been bothering me for weeks. I know Eberflus wasn’t here when Ballard picked Hooker. But Hooker is a unique talent and he’s being used stupidly. Imagine having a world class artist paint the outside of your house. Yeah, he can do it, but it’s a waste of his talents.

The deep drops past the 1st down line on 3rd and long are very frustrating. We used to do this shit back in the Dungy days and it was stupid back then too. Eberflus just doesn’t know what to do with his DBs yet. And he needs to figure it out because right now any QB outside of Derek Anderson on 3 days of practice can pick our bullshit zone apart and, as you said GBB, take our safeties out of the game. Why are we defending deep so carefully all the time but not trying to make a play on the ball on all the quick short throws?

[VeveJones007]

On #6, who was the premier pass rusher on the dominant Lovie Smith Bears defenses pre-Julius Peppers. I’ll hang up and listen for your answer.

[Dam8610]

On #6, who was the premier pass rusher on the dominant Lovie Smith Bears defenses pre-Julius Peppers. I’ll hang up and listen for your answer.

Tommie Harris was, for a time, the 3 tech we all constantly dreamed of. They also had hall of fame freak off nature/MLB Brian Urlacher.

[VeveJones007]

Tommie Harris was, for a time, the 3 tech we all constantly dreamed of. They also had hall of fame freak off nature/MLB Brian Urlacher.

Re-read #6. GBB specifically named edge rushers and said the D cannot work without a dominant edge. He’s right about a lot of things, but evidence shows that he overreached on #6.

[DrSpaceman]

He read the play...he made the play...he just let him get 1 foot to much. It happens. A Pagano coached team is totally unprepared for that play.

He didn't make the play. He made the first down

He was in position to make the play, but didn't stop it.

Yes we saw Pagano coached teams do much worse, but still, if this team is to make it back to the top of the league and not merely be another good but not great team, those are plays you have to make.

[DrSpaceman]

Multi-faceted:

1. Their drop depth seems consistently off. 3rd-and-11, they'll drop to 15. There is no successful scheme that does that.

2. It's not a pure zone scheme. They play Cover 1 man maybe 5-10% of the game. Problem is, they are AWFUL in man coverage and show it from pre-snap. I think they disguised coverage effectively once today, but other than that, they tell you what they're going to do before the snap EVERY play.

And that MIGHT work if you have Freeney, Mathis, Sanders, Brackett etc. But I don't know if fans realize how rare it is to have the talent some of those 2005, 2007, 2009 Colts defenses had. You CAN play this scheme a bit when you have the talent those units had, but it takes YEARS of drafting extremely well. I don't know if the Colts have that timeline available with Luck.

3. The scheme largely renders its safeties irrelevant. No one is going to test Malik Hooker deep. It's not because they are scared of Hooker, but rather because there is no need to throw deep when the MOF or 10-15 yard comebacks are always automatically conceded.

It feels like they play 9 on 11 sometimes when they play a Cover-2 shell where safeties drop 20+ yards off the ball, and everyone else drops 10-15 off themselves. Why would any QB ever throw deep then?

4. Even if the DL was playing well for argument's sake (it wasn't, and Hunt and Autry have been irrelevant for weeks now), they wouldn't be disrupting anything because, like today, they allow these little RB leakout flares on a quick step drop that are no-brainers for QBs and gain at least 5-10 yards every time.

All true.

But I think we saw early on the problem with the Colts secondary playing up to close. Donte Moncrief beats them deep and scores a TD. These corners are not good at all in man to man, one on one coverage. Its why we are seeing this. That plus the mentioned lack of a pass rush. After that first deep score I think they decided to stay back and keep everything in front of them.

[GoBigBlue88]

All true.

But I think we saw early on the problem with the Colts secondary playing up to close. Donte Moncrief beats them deep and scores a TD. These corners are not good at all in man to man, one on one coverage. Its why we are seeing this. That plus the mentioned lack of a pass rush. After that first deep score I think they decided to stay back and keep everything in front of them.

They were playing Cover-1 man on the Moncrief TD. It wasn't a result of getting burned by tightening zones. It was a result of...

1. Jags spreading out Colts, and Arthur Maulet having to play CB this week. Maulet sucks.

2. Hooker rotating over a tad late (I'm sure a read held him, but I'd need to see the full route tree)

3. A poor tackle by Hooker then erased by Maulet tackling Hooker off Moncrief.

I don't think you can look at that play and say "see, this is what happens when you tighten your zones!" Mostly because it wasn't zone coverage.

I do think you can look at it and say: we need to do a better job hiding man coverage before the snap if we're going to play man.

[Colt Classic]

Re-read #6. GBB specifically named edge rushers and said the D cannot work without a dominant edge. He’s right about a lot of things, but evidence shows that he overreached on #6.

He said rushers but named edge rushers specifically. I can't imagine at this point he'd turn down a rusher that plays anywhere, but thanks for the semantics.

[DrSpaceman]

They were playing Cover-1 man on the Moncrief TD. It wasn't a result of getting burned by tightening zones. It was a result of...

1. Jags spreading out Colts, and Arthur Maulet having to play CB this week. Maulet sucks.

2. Hooker rotating over a tad late (I'm sure a read held him, but I'd need to see the full route tree)

3. A poor tackle by Hooker then erased by Maulet tackling Hooker off Moncrief.

I don't think you can look at that play and say "see, this is what happens when you tighten your zones!" Mostly because it wasn't zone coverage.

I do think you can look at it and say: we need to do a better job hiding man coverage before the snap if we're going to play man.


I know they were playing man coverage, that's what I said

But whether it is playing man or tightening the zones, the point is these corners are not great at playing any sort of tight coverage. Which is why I think they are playing so far off.

That and with no pass rush to speak off they again don't want to get beat deep, knowing the QB is going to have time and the WRs will have time to get downfield.

But really yesterday, do the Jags have any real WR "threats" beside Moncrief, and we all know he is a moderate "threat" at best? I would think somehow they could have just made sure he was covered the rest of the game even if you have to use an extra guy in coverage for him.

But it goes back to lack of pass rushers and a lack of talent at corner. No scheme is going to be able to cover for those problems over the course of a whole game or over the course of a season.

[YDFL Commish]

Multi-faceted:

1. Their drop depth seems consistently off. 3rd-and-11, they'll drop to 15. There is no successful scheme that does that.

4. Even if the DL was playing well for argument's sake (it wasn't, and Hunt and Autry have been irrelevant for weeks now), they wouldn't be disrupting anything because, like today, they allow these little RB leakout flares on a quick step drop that are no-brainers for QBs and gain at least 5-10 yards every time.

The above 2 points are very much sore spots with me. I'm expecting caching and player improvement in both areas.

[rcubed]

fun first half. shit second half.

the ability in the second half for the jags to turn every 3rd and 10+ into an easy first down was driving me nuts.

zero points from us in the second half.

we deserved to lose that game.

[Discflinger]

All in all, I love the new identity Ballard and Reich are creating in Indianapolis. Give it time.

[Chaka]

Thanks GBB. Your thoughts and impressions are always insightful and interesting to read. After going through this thread, I feel like the comments this week are overly focused on the negative aspects of yesterday’s game, perhaps understandably because of the stressful second half. I’m not disagreeing with the majority of your comments really, but I did think there were some notable positives that really haven’t been discussed, and I’d be interested in any responses to let me know if I’m misreading the situation:

1) The offensive line continues to dominate our opponents. No sacks again this week, and it didn’t really even seem like Luck faced a lot of pressure. Maybe our rushing stats weren’t as great this week, but it seemed like JAX was determined not to let our RBs beat them and perhaps that helped open up the passing game in the first half.

2) Ebron and the other TEs. With the notable exception of Alie-Cox’s miscue in the second half, the TEs performed exceptionally well yet again this week.

3) Our passing game thoroughly dominated the JAX defense in the first half. Remember, JAX’s defense, even after yesterday, allows on average only 200.6 yards per game.

4) The vaunted return of Leonard Fournette was a dud. He averaged 2.2 YPC on 24 carries against our defense, certainly not what JAX was hoping for. Backup Carlos Hyde did even worse – 1.7 YPC on 5 carries.

5) Though we had no sacks, we recorded nine tackles for a loss (versus only 3 by JAX). I couldn’t quickly find a team stat to see how this stacked up to other teams, but it seems like we beat our opponents in this category nearly every week. Ultimately, however, we just had a hard time making these count yesterday because we’d let JAX convert on 3rd down.

I’ll add one general comment on the negative side – it seems like the Colts’ tackling has really regressed over the last several games. There were several critical missed tackles this game which allowed JAX to continue drives that otherwise would have stalled much earlier – most notably the Moncrief miss and the fake field goal, but those certainly weren’t the only ones. I think if our tackling was surer (as it was earlier this season), the game wouldn’t have been nearly as close.

[VeveJones007]

He said rushers but named edge rushers specifically. I can't imagine at this point he'd turn down a rusher that plays anywhere, but thanks for the semantics.

You can't have debate without semantics. Without semantics, we're all just blabbering into the void...oh, wait, you're right.