To put the running game in context

[sherck]

First of all, I am a data guy so I completely understand that short-term trends do not mean long-term success nor do averages mean much because each activity is a unique event.

That said, I have greatly enjoyed our last three games in having a running game again. Watching our new Offensive Line configuration just maul folks and spring our RBs to actually be beyond the line of scrimmage before contact has been great. In the past three games, we have averaged 5.5, 5.9 and 5.6 yards per carry.

While we did rush for over 100 yards in each of our first two games (101 yards against CIN; 104 yards against WAS), those yards per carry were 3.4 and 3.7 yards respectively. There, we did it through repetition of effort (not fun watching) instead of because of success on most of the individual plays.

So, for the past three games, we are averaging 182.0 yards per game rushing. If that average were to continue for the second half of the season, we would reach 2,397 rush yards for the season. We would fall 17 yards short of the Rams who are currently rushing for an average of 150.9 yards per game and if they maintain that rate, will end with 2,414 yards for the season.

As 182.0 yards per game, there is only one team since 2002 that had a season per game rushing average higher than that and it was the 2006 Atlanta Falcons (both Warrick Dunn and Michael Vick had over 1,000 rushing with Jerious Norwell tossing in 633 yards) at 183.7 yards rushing per game.

I have no idea if we can continue running the ball at the same clip we have these past three games but if we can, it will be at a pretty historically high rate compared to the rest of the NFL.

Please, please, please let the O-Line stay healthy!!

Walk Worthy,

[Puck]

First of all, I am a data guy so I completely understand that short-term trends do not mean long-term success nor do averages mean much because each activity is a unique event.

That said, I have greatly enjoyed our last three games in having a running game again. Watching our new Offensive Line configuration just maul folks and spring our RBs to actually be beyond the line of scrimmage before contact has been great. In the past three games, we have averaged 5.5, 5.9 and 5.6 yards per carry.

While we did rush for over 100 yards in each of our first two games (101 yards against CIN; 104 yards against WAS), those yards per carry were 3.4 and 3.7 yards respectively. There, we did it through repetition of effort (not fun watching) instead of because of success on most of the individual plays.

So, for the past three games, we are averaging 182.0 yards per game rushing. If that average were to continue for the second half of the season, we would reach 2,397 rush yards for the season. We would fall 17 yards short of the Rams who are currently rushing for an average of 150.9 yards per game and if they maintain that rate, will end with 2,414 yards for the season.

As 182.0 yards per game, there is only one team since 2002 that had a season per game rushing average higher than that and it was the 2006 Atlanta Falcons (both Warrick Dunn and Michael Vick had over 1,000 rushing with Jerious Norwell tossing in 633 yards) at 183.7 yards rushing per game.

I have no idea if we can continue running the ball at the same clip we have these past three games but if we can, it will be at a pretty historically high rate compared to the rest of the NFL.

Please, please, please let the O-Line stay healthy!!

Walk Worthy,


Anyone that wants to argue that drafting high for 2 guards didnt equal difference makers are nuts.

[Dam8610]

Anyone that wants to argue that drafting high for 2 guards didnt equal difference makers are nuts.

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-points-per-game

[sherck]

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-points-per-game
That all you got?

Seriously, his questions was "Anyone that wants to argue that drafting high for 2 guards didnt equal difference makers are nuts?"

Are you honestly saying that Nelson and Smith are not making a difference?

Your linking to a stat showing how bad our defense is keeping opposing offenses out of the endzone DOES NOT negate the fact that we have two Offensive Linemen making an IMPACT on our offense.

If we had drafted two more high defensive players, might our defense be better? Sure.

But, our offense would be worse than it is with two different starters in there other than Nelson and Smith.

You are still not providing a counter-argument to his question.

Which defender did you want at #6 who was still on the board? Hey, you get to cherry pick! Find the one with the most stats and say THAT guy! Go for it.

But, you best choice is probably Vander Esch whom NO ONE would have picked top ten.

But, you go ahead and throw a name up there and maintain that drafting HIM instead of Nelson would have put the team further ahead. Go on.....

So, instead, I will go with Puck and say that you are nuts since you don't appear to want to debate whether Nelson is making an impact or not. You just want to yell at the wind.

Peachy....



[Gets down off soapbox.....]

Walk Worthy,

[smitty46953]

That all you got?

Seriously, his questions was "Anyone that wants to argue that drafting high for 2 guards didnt equal difference makers are nuts?"

Are you honestly saying that Nelson and Smith are not making a difference?

Your linking to a stat showing how bad our defense is keeping opposing offenses out of the endzone DOES NOT negate the fact that we have two Offensive Linemen making an IMPACT on our offense.

If we had drafted two more high defensive players, might our defense be better? Sure.

But, our offense would be worse than it is with two different starters in there other than Nelson and Smith.

You are still not providing a counter-argument to his question.

Which defender did you want at #6 who was still on the board? Hey, you get to cherry pick! Find the one with the most stats and say THAT guy! Go for it.

But, you best choice is probably Vander Esch whom NO ONE would have picked top ten.

But, you go ahead and throw a name up there and maintain that drafting HIM instead of Nelson would have put the team further ahead. Go on.....

So, instead, I will go with Puck and say that you are nuts since you don't appear to want to debate whether Nelson is making an impact or not. You just want to yell at the wind.

Peachy....



[Gets down off soapbox.....]

Walk Worthy,

Sherck, let me introduce you to Dammy … :rolleyes:

[sherck]

And for those of you who care,


The highest rookie OT PFF grade is Mike McGlinchey, SF, at 80.2 (7th highest OT grade overall).

Braden Smith has the 2nd highest rookie OT PFF grade at a 73.1 (#21 overall).

The next highest rookie OT PFF grade is Brian O'Neill, MIN, at a 62.7 (#49 overall).

--

The highest rookie OG PFF grade is Will Hernandez, NYG, with a 72.9 (#8 overall).

Quinton Nelson has the 2nd highest rookie OG PFF grade at 70.2 (#16 overall).

The next highest rookie OG PFF grade is James Daniels, CHI, at a 63.0 (#35 overall).

Colts Starting O-Linemen:

LT Anthony Castonzo, 64.5 (#45 OT overall)
LG Quinton Nelson, 70.2 (#16 OG overall)
OC Ryan Kelly, 76.5 (#6 OC overall)
RG Mark Glowinski, 78.2 (#4 OG overall)
RT Braden Smith, 73.1 (#21 OT overall)

6th man Le'Raven Clark, 68.8 (#31 OT overall)

Who would have thunk it?

Walk Worthy,

[Dam8610]

That all you got?

Seriously, his questions was "Anyone that wants to argue that drafting high for 2 guards didnt equal difference makers are nuts?"

Are you honestly saying that Nelson and Smith are not making a difference?

Your linking to a stat showing how bad our defense is keeping opposing offenses out of the endzone DOES NOT negate the fact that we have two Offensive Linemen making an IMPACT on our offense.

If we had drafted two more high defensive players, might our defense be better? Sure.

But, our offense would be worse than it is with two different starters in there other than Nelson and Smith.

You are still not providing a counter-argument to his question.

Which defender did you want at #6 who was still on the board? Hey, you get to cherry pick! Find the one with the most stats and say THAT guy! Go for it.

But, you best choice is probably Vander Esch whom NO ONE would have picked top ten.

But, you go ahead and throw a name up there and maintain that drafting HIM instead of Nelson would have put the team further ahead. Go on.....

So, instead, I will go with Puck and say that you are nuts since you don't appear to want to debate whether Nelson is making an impact or not. You just want to yell at the wind.

Peachy....



[Gets down off soapbox.....]

Walk Worthy,

Trading down to 12 would've still been the better option IMO. The Bills were offering 12 and 22. And if you don't like what's at 12 (though Derwin James at the very least would've been a good option there), trade down again. I'm not actually upset about the Braden Smith pick, I just think Ballard missed a chance to get way more value out of the 6th pick than Nelson. Much like I can't argue Chubb over Nelson, Smith, Turay, and Wilkins, I don't think with the right maneuvering anyone would've been able to argue for Nelson over the haul that could've been had for the 6th pick.

[omahacolt]

Anyone that wants to argue that drafting high for 2 guards didnt equal difference makers are nuts.

Adding talent on the oline is definitely making a difference. I think people only argue how that talent is added, right?

[VeveJones007]

Trading down to 12 would've still been the better option IMO. The Bills were offering 12 and 22. And if you don't like what's at 12 (though Derwin James at the very least would've been a good option there), trade down again. I'm not actually upset about the Braden Smith pick, I just think Ballard missed a chance to get way more value out of the 6th pick than Nelson. Much like I can't argue Chubb over Nelson, Smith, Turay, and Wilkins, I don't think with the right maneuvering anyone would've been able to argue for Nelson over the haul that could've been had for the 6th pick.

Has that ever been confirmed?

[Puck]

Adding talent on the oline is definitely making a difference. I think people only argue how that talent is added, right?

Oh absolutely, BUt I disagree and I dont see another what we would have gotten to this level of production so fast without Nelson for sure. But adding Smith was a super plus. Add that to Kelly who doesnt get enough credit IMO and finally getting AC back makes the whole vision that Ballard/Reich had in mind explode into view.
Glowinski and Slaussen were also very good additions. The oline is fixed We can move on to other areas.

Coaches can say they are gonna protect #12.... these guys pulled it off in their first draft together.

Ballard has already said that next yrs draft is about defense... and said it will be a very top heavy defensive draft. I assume he means as a league and as a team.

In this defense we are probably only about 3 high draft picks/FA's from being a top 5-7 defense.

3Tech Hopefully Lewis
SS need a Bob Sanders
and an edge rush to go along with Lewis when/if he moves outside on passing downs (Ballard already said he would do this) or one of the young guys already on the team. The rest of the D needs upgraded but not all have to be superstars in this defense and it doesnt have to be next yr.. Also need one really good zone/man corner.

Offense.... only thing I see right now is a need at WR. I'm not putting my bets on Caine. Not sure why everyone thinks he will be the for sure #2 behind TY.... Find someone who can move the chains like Reggie did in the 3rd or 4th round and keep feeding the TE's

[smitty46953]

Has that ever been confirmed?

The Bills to move one spot later than the Colts at #6, traded the #12 and both of their 2018 second-round picks at 53 and 56, and they also got back No. 255 for the Bucs #7.

Just assuming they offered the Colts the same deal? I could be wrong, but doubt it... We did not need a QB nor did the Bucs, why would they offer Colts #12 and #22 and not the Bucs for one spot when the guy they wanted was still available? Talking heads were only ones along with forum participants who were suggesting this that I recall. :cool:

[Dam8610]

Has that ever been confirmed?

Yes, by the Bills.

The Bills to move one spot later than the Colts at #6, traded the #12 and both of their 2018 second-round picks at 53 and 56, and they also got back No. 255 for the Bucs #7.

Just assuming they offered the Colts the same deal? I could be wrong, but doubt it... We did not need a QB nor did the Bucs, why would they offer Colts #12 and #22 and not the Bucs for one spot when the guy they wanted was still available? Talking heads were only ones along with forum participants who were suggesting this that I recall. :cool:

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/heres-the-draft-day-trade-the-bills-and-broncos-had-in-place-before-bradley-chubb-fell/

I can't find the article where Beane specifically confirms he offered Ballard 12 and 22, but you tell me what the middle ground between what he offered the Broncos at 5 and what he gave the Bucs at 7 is.

[DrSpaceman]

Ballard trades back and gets a solid OL for probably the next decade, something sorely needed, plus more picks, gets another starting OL and a MLB who really is a difference maker for the D, another huge area of need for the team., in the second round.....

And people are complaining he didn't get more.

Tough crowd

Even if the Bills reported it, I still never know how real those stories are around draft picks. Polian made all sorts of claims about wanting this pick or that pick or just missing on someone or a trade offer, much of it I think was always him blowing smoke up our asses. Couldn't trust half of it

[Oldcolt]

We have been trying to find a fix for this offensive line for what, 10 12 years. Even when we had a running game it was never like this. When Edge was at his peak he would make moves and plays that left me wondering how he possibly could do that. Now I wonder how we could possibly open up such huge holes. Considering all of the money and draft capital we have invested without anything to show for it fixing it, and fixing it like this, with (in addition to incredible coaching) a number 6 and number 37 draft pick is a steal for this particular club.

[AlwaysSunnyinIndy]

Yes, by the Bills.



https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/heres-the-draft-day-trade-the-bills-and-broncos-had-in-place-before-bradley-chubb-fell/

I can't find the article where Beane specifically confirms he offered Ballard 12 and 22, but you tell me what the middle ground between what he offered the Broncos at 5 and what he gave the Bucs at 7 is.



It might be just post-draft spin, but Brandon Beane said afterwards that he was looking for a "reasonable" deal and that DENVER was insisting on 12 and 22 but he didn't agree to that proposal. He also said that he checked in with the Colts and Bucs and both stated they had a guy they targeted and were going to pick unless their guy was off the board. Considering that the Bucs made the trade, I would assume their guy was off the board at 7.

https://www.profootballrumors.com/2018/04/bills-werent-offering-both-first-round-picks-in-trades

[smitty46953]

Yes, by the Bills.



https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/heres-the-draft-day-trade-the-bills-and-broncos-had-in-place-before-bradley-chubb-fell/

I can't find the article where Beane specifically confirms he offered Ballard 12 and 22, but you tell me what the middle ground between what he offered the Broncos at 5 and what he gave the Bucs at 7 is.

Middle ground was Ballard and the Colts wanted Q Nelson. Seems AlwaysSunnyinIndy found quote by Beane that pretty much says your wrong... :cool:

https://www.profootballrumors.com/2018/04/bills-werent-offering-both-first-round-picks-in-trades

[omahacolt]

Oh absolutely, BUt I disagree and I dont see another what we would have gotten to this level of production so fast without Nelson for sure. But adding Smith was a super plus. Add that to Kelly who doesnt get enough credit IMO and finally getting AC back makes the whole vision that Ballard/Reich had in mind explode into view.
Glowinski and Slaussen were also very good additions. The oline is fixed We can move on to other areas.

Coaches can say they are gonna protect #12.... these guys pulled it off in their first draft together.

Ballard has already said that next yrs draft is about defense... and said it will be a very top heavy defensive draft. I assume he means as a league and as a team.

In this defense we are probably only about 3 high draft picks/FA's from being a top 5-7 defense.

3Tech Hopefully Lewis
SS need a Bob Sanders
and an edge rush to go along with Lewis when/if he moves outside on passing downs (Ballard already said he would do this) or one of the young guys already on the team. The rest of the D needs upgraded but not all have to be superstars in this defense and it doesnt have to be next yr.. Also need one really good zone/man corner.

Offense.... only thing I see right now is a need at WR. I'm not putting my bets on Caine. Not sure why everyone thinks he will be the for sure #2 behind TY.... Find someone who can move the chains like Reggie did in the 3rd or 4th round and keep feeding the TE's

but there were ways to improve the oline and get a good one without drafting nelson. it is really a pointless argument imo. we needed the oline fixed, and we seem to have it. with depth i might add. i like how Clark stepped up.

we need amost a whole dline. sheard is ok but very replaceable. the interior of the line needs almost completely redone. and turay has shown flashes but thats about it.

we have a huge need at cb. another safety is needed. also could use a replacement to walker. although i do like him.

we have a way to go before we get a top 5 d

[VeveJones007]

Yes, by the Bills.

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/heres-the-draft-day-trade-the-bills-and-broncos-had-in-place-before-bradley-chubb-fell/

I can't find the article where Beane specifically confirms he offered Ballard 12 and 22, but you tell me what the middle ground between what he offered the Broncos at 5 and what he gave the Bucs at 7 is.

That's how I would read that one source of information as well, but then there's something contradicting it directly from the horse's mouth per Beane's comments in April. I don't think it's fair to take it as fact based on available info.

[VeveJones007]

but there were ways to improve the oline and get a good one without drafting nelson. it is really a pointless argument imo. we needed the oline fixed, and we seem to have it. with depth i might add. i like how Clark stepped up.

we need amost a whole dline. sheard is ok but very replaceable. the interior of the line needs almost completely redone. and turay has shown flashes but thats about it.

we have a huge need at cb. another safety is needed. also could use a replacement to walker. although i do like him.

we have a way to go before we get a top 5 d

Yep. The decision was made, so it's better just to look at the outcome. The offensive line is better, but the defense is still pretty terrible. Hopefully Ballard can do a similar overhaul of the defense in 2019 as he did for the OL in 2018.

[JAFF]

Anyone that wants to argue that drafting high for 2 guards didnt equal difference makers are nuts.

"Time is a great thickener of things"

A. Lincoln

If those two guys are starters 8 years from now, Ballard will look like a genius.

[JAFF]

but there were ways to improve the oline and get a good one without drafting nelson. it is really a pointless argument imo. we needed the oline fixed, and we seem to have it. with depth i might add. i like how Clark stepped up.

we need amost a whole dline. sheard is ok but very replaceable. the interior of the line needs almost completely redone. and turay has shown flashes but thats about it.

we have a huge need at cb. another safety is needed. also could use a replacement to walker. although i do like him.

we have a way to go before we get a top 5 d

The team needs more D. Absolutely

But there is 8 more games. A lot of young guys out there now, and the learning curve is brutal. At the end of the season, some of those guys will have grown, gotten better. It might not be that bad. 8 games is a lot of time in the NFL. You think Leonard is good now, wait until the last game. He's going to be scary

[rcubed]

"Time is a great thickener of things"

A. Lincoln

If those two guys are starters 8 years from now, Ballard will look like a genius.
Didnt this basically happen in dallas a while back? Jerry's son convinced him to take a bunch of OL with high picks and they had a killer line for years

(and cue someone saying they didnt win anything with that...)

[Dam8610]

Wow, this sparked a lot of discussion. My only point here was if the Colts could've traded down for something like 12 and 22, that would've produced a more valuable group of players than Nelson by himself at 6. An example would be Derwin James and Isaiah Wynn. Yes, Wynn got injured, but he may not have here. Wynn was a very good guard, and James has been an impact defender thus far. In fact, Nelson hasn't been so good as to convince me that Wynn couldn't have been similarly productive if healthy.

That said, Ballard chose not to go that route, and thus far the 2018 draft class does look incredibly productive. Hopefully, he'll make good on his philosophy of building through the lines by drafting DL in this draft early and often.

[sherck]

Really interesting article on Stampede Blue about Hines running (located here (https://www.stampedeblue.com/2018/10/31/18045366/film-room-nyheim-hines-rushing-vs-oakland-raiders)).

Basic premise:
So what was that point that I was bashing over your head the entire article? The Colts are finally using Nyheim Hines the way that he should be used. Hines is not a traditional scat back with great agility and shiftiness to make a play. He is a strong, downhill runner despite what his size says. Once Coach Reich realized this, he schemed plays that allowed for Hines to have his best rushing game of his pro career.

Early in the season, Hines was excelling as a passing down back but putting up fairly poor numbers as a runner. Once the offensive line solidified with Braden Smith at RT and Mark Glowinski at RG, running lanes have opened up tremendously for the Colts running backs. Coach Reich realized the best way to utilize Hines and Mack is to not make them these runners with great vision. Rather, allow these two great athletes to use their athleticism to create big plays through the big holes that his offensive line is creating.

Am I saying that Hines is a bad player? Not at all, in fact he has played remarkably well this year. All I am saying is that he is not a complete back and he is not going to be this agile runner with great vision. Reich understands that and is putting a very good role player in a role where he can find the most success.

Cannot argue with the results of the past three weeks.

Walk Worthy,

[rm1369]

I know I keep coming back to it more than I should, but I love seeing and hearing about the coaching staff making adjustments for players strengths. It seems to be a major part of Reich’s philosophy and to me it is a great indicator that he’s going to be a very good coach.

Not to start back up the old arguments, but this philosophy is the major reason I had issue with some of the personnel decisions that were made on the defensive side. I don’t see that same philosophy defensively. Certainly it lends itself a little more to the offensive side of the ball. Creating mismatches. However it is still applicable to the defensive side and I do hate the idea that we may be going back to “we do what we do”. I’ve never been a fan of that.

[FatDT]

Not to start back up the old arguments, but this philosophy is the major reason I had issue with some of the personnel decisions that were made on the defensive side. I don’t see that same philosophy defensively. Certainly it lends itself a little more to the offensive side of the ball. Creating mismatches. However it is still applicable to the defensive side and I do hate the idea that we may be going back to “we do what we do”. I’ve never been a fan of that.

I don't disagree with your overall point. I've been clear that I think cutting Hankins, Anderson, and Simon were all mistakes.

That said, notice Hunt isn't playing that much on the edge. He's playing interior DL, where he fits best. When Quincy Wilson played so much against the Bills, they put him on Kelvin Benjamin and let him press. He wasn't forced into soft zone coverage. There's evidence of Eberflus and company tailoring the defense to specific strengths. I'd like to see more of it, but so far I don't think this D is as rigid as the Dungy defenses of the past.

[rm1369]

I don't disagree with your overall point. I've been clear that I think cutting Hankins, Anderson, and Simon were all mistakes.

That said, notice Hunt isn't playing that much on the edge. He's playing interior DL, where he fits best. When Quincy Wilson played so much against the Bills, they put him on Kelvin Benjamin and let him press. He wasn't forced into soft zone coverage. There's evidence of Eberflus and company tailoring the defense to specific strengths. I'd like to see more of it, but so far I don't think this D is as rigid as the Dungy defenses of the past.

Fair points. I was aware of the change with Hunt, but didn’t notice the adjustment with Wilson. Hopefully you are correct and they aren’t as rigid as Dungy was. I’ll have to watch for adjustments a little closer.

[YDFL Commish]

but there were ways to improve the oline and get a good one without drafting nelson. it is really a pointless argument imo. we needed the oline fixed, and we seem to have it. with depth i might add. i like how Clark stepped up.

we need amost a whole dline. sheard is ok but very replaceable. the interior of the line needs almost completely redone. and turay has shown flashes but thats about it.

we have a huge need at cb. another safety is needed. also could use a replacement to walker. although i do like him.

we have a way to go before we get a top 5 d

Agree with all of this, except Walker. We are getting virtually no production at SAM, where they have rotateing 3 players, Goode, Franklin and Adams. While Walker is playing pretty well at MIKE.

Now, if the plan is to replace Walker and move him to SAM, then I may be all for that.

[Dam8610]

Agree with all of this, except Walker. We are getting virtually no production at SAM, where they have rotateing 3 players, Goode, Franklin and Adams. While Walker is playing pretty well at MIKE.

Now, if the plan is to replace Walker and move him to SAM, then I may be all for that.

That would be my plan. Get a more dynamic MIKE to put next to Leonard at WILL and move Walker to SAM. That would be after fixing the DL unless a Ray Lewis or Brian Urlacher falls into the team's lap.

[omahacolt]

Agree with all of this, except Walker. We are getting virtually no production at SAM, where they have rotateing 3 players, Goode, Franklin and Adams. While Walker is playing pretty well at MIKE.

Now, if the plan is to replace Walker and move him to SAM, then I may be all for that.

We don’t use a Sam much. And yes he would be fine to play that role

[Dam8610]

We don’t use a Sam much. And yes he would be fine to play that role

Having a more talented player there could lead to using the position more.

[Chromeburn]

Having a more talented player there could lead to using the position more.

We are in a nickel most of the time as are most teams in the NFL now. If you want to grab a good coverage backer like Mack Wilson in the draft. They can probably find a way for him to get on the field. Or if you think he is an upgrade to Walker. Perhaps trying to find a new hybrid defender that is part secondary part backer. But I don’t see them making a high investment in the SAM just to play more 4-3. The position is being phased out.

[omahacolt]

Having a more talented player there could lead to using the position more.

Offensive personnel will determine if we have 3 backers on the field imo

[VeveJones007]

Offensive personnel will determine if we have 3 backers on the field imo

Exactly. Teams are in 11 personnel half the time, so you're already in Nickel 50%. Factor in 4 or 5 receivers sets and the use of SAM gets even smaller.

Hopefully Ballard can get good value on an undersized, athletic LB in round 2 again. A Deion Jones comp would be fantastic.

[Pez]

We have been trying to find a fix for this offensive line for what, 10 12 years. Even when we had a running game it was never like this. When Edge was at his peak he would make moves and plays that left me wondering how he possibly could do that. Now I wonder how we could possibly open up such huge holes. Considering all of the money and draft capital we have invested without anything to show for it fixing it, and fixing it like this, with (in addition to incredible coaching) a number 6 and number 37 draft pick is a steal for this particular club.

I know it's more complicated than this, but Ballard fixing the OL in two drafts really suggests to me that we were talking about fixing the OL for the last decade more than we were actually fixing it. Luck got his ass kicked for a 5 year span that nearly ended his career. Ballard fixes that in two years.

I guess Kelly was really a Grigson pick, but Grigs was pretty much toast at that point. And I have heard it argued that the Hooker / Mack / Walker draft was more of a Grigson team draft even thought Ballard was GM.

Then 2018 with three picks Ballard completely changed the landscape of this team .... Nelson, Leonard, Smith.

[Dam8610]

I know it's more complicated than this, but Ballard fixing the OL in two drafts really suggests to me that we were talking about fixing the OL for the last decade more than we were actually fixing it. Luck got his ass kicked for a 5 year span that nearly ended his career. Ballard fixes that in two years.

I guess Kelly was really a Grigson pick, but Grigs was pretty much toast at that point. And I have heard it argued that the Hooker / Mack / Walker draft was more of a Grigson team draft even thought Ballard was GM.

Then 2018 with three picks Ballard completely changed the landscape of this team .... Nelson, Leonard, Smith.

It's not just those three. Turay has contributed some on defense, and Hines and Wilkins have contributed quite a bit as well. I'm also excited to see what Lewis and Cain can offer when they return from injury.

[omahacolt]

I know it's more complicated than this, but Ballard fixing the OL in two drafts really suggests to me that we were talking about fixing the OL for the last decade more than we were actually fixing it. Luck got his ass kicked for a 5 year span that nearly ended his career. Ballard fixes that in two years.

I guess Kelly was really a Grigson pick, but Grigs was pretty much toast at that point. And I have heard it argued that the Hooker / Mack / Walker draft was more of a Grigson team draft even thought Ballard was GM.

Then 2018 with three picks Ballard completely changed the landscape of this team .... Nelson, Leonard, Smith.

Anyone arguing last years draft was a grigson team draft is either dishonest or an idiot. What gm gets hired after the season and shit cans the scouting department immediately? Maybe it happens but I don’t recall ever hearing it. Ballard dealt with what everyone deals with.

[Pez]

Anyone arguing last years draft was a grigson team draft is either dishonest or an idiot. What gm gets hired after the season and shit cans the scouting department immediately? Maybe it happens but I don’t recall ever hearing it. Ballard dealt with what everyone deals with.Yea, I agree, that was what I was trying to say. A Ballard draft with grigsons scouting team.

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[Chaka]

Anyone arguing last years draft was a grigson team draft is either dishonest or an idiot. What gm gets hired after the season and shit cans the scouting department immediately? Maybe it happens but I don’t recall ever hearing it. Ballard dealt with what everyone deals with.

Two points in response:

1) Whether Ballard’s situation was unusual or not isn’t really the point. The fact remains that he had to utilize Grigson’s scouting staff to prepare for the 2017 draft, instead of his own preferred staff (which he put in place after the draft). While I’d agree that it’s not fair to totally excuse Ballard for any mistakes in the 2017 draft – obviously he was heavily involved in the player choices – but at least those mistakes deserve an asterisk.

2) Setting all of this aside, the 2017 draft was still pretty decent. We picked mid-round, and obtained several starters from that draft (Hooker, Mack and Walker), and several backups (Wilson, Hairston, Stewart). True, there have been a couple of flame-outs (Basham and Banner), but is that really all that unusual in any draft? Yes, they were gone quickly, but I personally think that’s a function of Ballard’s approach. Other teams may have kept those guys on their roster for another season or two to avoid admitting their mistakes.

[omahacolt]

Two points in response:

1) Whether Ballard’s situation was unusual or not isn’t really the point. The fact remains that he had to utilize Grigson’s scouting staff to prepare for the 2017 draft, instead of his own preferred staff (which he put in place after the draft). While I’d agree that it’s not fair to totally excuse Ballard for any mistakes in the 2017 draft – obviously he was heavily involved in the player choices – but at least those mistakes deserve an asterisk.

2) Setting all of this aside, the 2017 draft was still pretty decent. We picked mid-round, and obtained several starters from that draft (Hooker, Mack and Walker), and several backups (Wilson, Hairston, Stewart). True, there have been a couple of flame-outs (Basham and Banner), but is that really all that unusual in any draft? Yes, they were gone quickly, but I personally think that’s a function of Ballard’s approach. Other teams may have kept those guys on their roster for another season or two to avoid admitting their mistakes.

No. It doesn’t get an asterisk. That is just how things work. Sure it is somewhat of a handicap but it is his draft.

[Pez]

I think Ballard he would agree with you also

Compare:
2017 top 3 (Hooker, Wilson, Basham)
to
2018 top 3 (Nelson, Leonard, Smith)

There is reason for optimism.

In 2017, Ballard was able to get a solid starter in Hooker, a depth player in Wilson and well, kinda missed on Basham. I was pretty high on Basham though and thought he would have a break out preseason. This is a pretty good showing under conditions that might be less than ideal.

Under conditions he was in control of, he transforms the team in three picks. This is the kind of vision we need in a GM... at least until he proves otherwise.

[Pez]

Looking around at some of this draft stuff and I came across this SI article that was an initial "draft grade" for each pick. This was from April 2018.

Quentin Nelson = D+
Darius Leonard = B
Braden Smith = D-


https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/04/26/indianapolis-colts-nfl-draft-picks-selections-grades

[Dam8610]

Looking around at some of this draft stuff and I came across this SI article that was an initial "draft grade" for each pick. This was from April 2018.

Quentin Nelson = D+
Darius Leonard = B
Braden Smith = D-


https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/04/26/indianapolis-colts-nfl-draft-picks-selections-grades

Harkens back to the days of Polian's best drafts with the Colts. Low "graded" productive drafts are the best.

[Butter]

Looking around at some of this draft stuff and I came across this SI article that was an initial "draft grade" for each pick. This was from April 2018.

Quentin Nelson = D+
Darius Leonard = B
Braden Smith = D-


https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/04/26/indianapolis-colts-nfl-draft-picks-selections-grades

To be fair they did not give the low grade based on the talent of the players but on the positional value of Nelson and then taking Smith in the 2nd after taking Nelson 6th overall. It seems obnoxious to devalue either pick that much.

[JAFF]

To be fair they did not give the low grade based on the talent of the players but on the positional value of Nelson and then taking Smith in the 2nd after taking Nelson 6th overall. It seems obnoxious to devalue either pick that much.

Positional value. That varies from team to team. Was there a team in more “need” for O linemen than the Colts? Anyone that argues that he Colts didnt get “value” for Nelson hasnt seen him play. Same nonsense about drafting Freeney too early.

[Dam8610]

Positional value. That varies from team to team. Was there a team in more “need” for O linemen than the Colts? Anyone that argues that he Colts didnt get “value” for Nelson hasnt seen him play. Same nonsense about drafting Freeney too early.

Nelson has to have a John Hannah like career to make the pick work for value. If the 200 yard rushing games and lowest sack rate in the league continue, he may get there, but that doesn't make it not a risky bet.

[Racehorse]

Nelson has to have a John Hannah like career to make the pick work for value.

Not if he keeps Luck off his back and the injury report for the next ten years.

[Tanner]

I think I'm losing my mind, but help me out here. Who the fuck was John Hannah?

[Racehorse]

I think I'm losing my mind, but help me out here. Who the fuck was John Hannah?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Hannah_(American_football)

John Allen Hannah (born April 4, 1951), nicknamed Hog, is a former American football left guard who played for the New England Patriots (1973–1985) in the National Football League (NFL). In 1999 the Sporting News ranked him as the second greatest offensive lineman in NFL history after Anthony Muñoz. He was elected to the Pro Football Hall of Fame in 1991 and the College Football Hall of Fame in 1991. Sports Illustrated dubbed him, on its August 3, 1981, cover, "The Best Offensive Lineman of All Time."[1]

[Dam8610]

Not if he keeps Luck off his back and the injury report for the next ten years.

He can't do that by himself.

[Racehorse]

He can't do that by himself.

Heck no! But if he does his part...

[Pez]

Nelson has to have a John Hannah like career to make the pick work for value. If the 200 yard rushing games and lowest sack rate in the league continue, he may get there, but that doesn't make it not a risky bet.I guess what if Nelson has 8 solid years with us. He doesn't have to be the second best ol of all time to have value. Chubb is 20 spots behind Leonard in tackles, barkley is just ahead of turay with 50% more snaps than turay gets.

I'm just not seeing any opportunity cost that Ballard has actually paid. It's very hard to deny that he crushed the 2018 draft.

I guess it was hard for me to justify that if the 6th overall pick isn't the second best of all time in his position, then it's therefore valueless. That just doesn't make sense to me.

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[JAFF]

Nelson has to have a John Hannah like career to make the pick work for value. If the 200 yard rushing games and lowest sack rate in the league continue, he may get there, but that doesn't make it not a risky bet.

Every first round pick is risky. And its horseshit argument he has to get into the hall of fame. He plays 10 years as a starter the team got its moneys worth.

[JAFF]

I think I'm losing my mind, but help me out here. Who the fuck was John Hannah?

Its called google

Hes ranked right there with anthony munoz, heard of him?

[JAFF]

He can't do that by himself.

Really? Put him next to kelly and costanzo and they can run left all day long. Look at the line right now. They have 4 guys for the next 5 years facing some very good D lines in the conference.

[Pez]

He can't do that by himself.Neither can Andrew Luck.



<mic drop>

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[Oldcolt]

Nelson has to have a John Hannah like career to make the pick work for value. If the 200 yard rushing games and lowest sack rate in the league continue, he may get there, but that doesn't make it not a risky bet.

He was a steal at 6.

[Racehorse]

I guess what if Nelson has 8 solid years with us. He doesn't have to be the second best ol of all time to have value. Chubb is 20 spots behind Leonard in tackles, barkley is just ahead of turay with 50% more snaps than turay gets.

I'm just not seeing any opportunity cost that Ballard has actually paid. It's very hard to deny that he crushed the 2018 draft.

I guess it was hard for me to justify that if the 6th overall pick isn't the second best of all time in his position, then it's therefore valueless. That just doesn't make sense to me.

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Well, it's Dam you're talking about.

[Tanner]

Yes I have, just didn't remember Hannah, and by the way I hate fucking Google .

[Butter]

Yes I have, just didn't remember Hannah, and by the way I hate fucking Google .

There are other search engines and resources to easily find simple info on the interwebs.

[albany ed]

we're not done with getting players from the Jets trade. We have an extra #2 (37th overall) in the upcoming draft. That's a total of 3 players in the top 37 of the choices.

[omahacolt]

Yes I have, just didn't remember Hannah, and by the way I hate fucking Google .

Why would you hate google?

[Racehorse]

Why would you hate google?

He thinks it is a dirty sex term

[JAFF]

He thinks it is a dirty sex term

I asked google and got this:

https://www.google.com/search?q=is+google+a+dirty+sex+term&oq=is+google+a+dirty+sex+term&aqs=chrome..69i57j33.11106j0j8&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

I thought it was a sex term the first time I heard it. As in, "he drove his emense GOOGLE into to her until she GOOGLED

[omahacolt]

I asked google and got this:

https://www.google.com/search?q=is+google+a+dirty+sex+term&oq=is+google+a+dirty+sex+term&aqs=chrome..69i57j33.11106j0j8&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

I thought it was a sex term the first time I heard it. As in, "he drove his emense GOOGLE into to her until she GOOGLED

That was stupid

[JAFF]

That was stupid

which is why I thought you would enjoy it

[Tanner]

Guess I should have said it's not my preference . Opinions are like assholes every motherfuckers got one. Right?

[VeveJones007]

we're not done with getting players from the Jets trade. We have an extra #2 (37th overall) in the upcoming draft. That's a total of 3 players in the top 37 of the choices.

We'll see how the Jets finish. That pick is currently #39, but they have two games left against Buffalo. It could be more like #45 by the end of the season.

[Dam8610]

We'll see how the Jets finish. That pick is currently #39, but they have two games left against Buffalo. It could be more like #45 by the end of the season.

Still top 50.