Colts Cap Update - 28 Mar 2017

[sherck]

$167.000m = NFL 2017 Salary Cap
$006.614m = Colts 2016 Cap Roll-Over
========
$173.614m = Colts 2017 Adjusted Salary Cap


$135.230m = Top 51 Current Salaries (Estimating $2.5m for Al Woods)
$008.576m = Dead Money
$006.322m = 2017 Draft Pool
$001.080m = Spots #52 and #53 on active roster
$001.200m = Practice Squad
$003.000m = In-Season "Churn" Space
========
$155.408m = Current Obligations

$018.206m = Free Cap Space to Sign NEW Free Agents

Lots of cash to still improve the team; this year or next year.

BREAK BREAK BREAK

Interesting pattern to the Colts 2017 cap hits.

The top 4 cap hits just happen to be the 4 guys whom most would agree would start on just about any other roster in the NFL:

$19.400m = Andrew Luck
$12.800m = Anthony Castonzo
$10.250m = Vontae Davis
$10.000m = T.Y. Hilton

All of the contracts that are between $5.000m and $9.999m are signed this season:

$09.968m = Jabaal Sheard
$08.000m = Jack Doyle
$05.843m = John Simon

All the rest of the team has under a $5.00m cap hit (the next highest is Kendall Langford at $4.250m) which most would agree is a solid starters wage in the NFL but not elite.

Only 7 cap hits this year over $4.250m. Ballard has deleted anyone who does not fit into his view of the world.

Cheers,

[DrSpaceman]

Ballard has managed the cap well so far, which is about the objective thing you can judge him on to date.

Will see if the FA moves work out better than they did under Grigson.

[Puck]

spotrac has Al Woods added now and for some reason the cap went up. Not sure what changed.... SHERCK?????

[omahacolt]

This offseason sucked

[Racehorse]

This offseason sucked

The worst part of it was retaining the moron pretending to be the HC,

[VeveJones007]

This offseason sucked

If they don't make heavy investments in UFA next offseason, I'll completely agree. I can see several justifications for not doing it this offseason, though.

[sherck]

spotrac has Al Woods added now and for some reason the cap went up. Not sure what changed.... SHERCK?????
Ummm, looking at Spotrac this morning, they still do not have Woods added.

Cheers,

[sherck]

If they don't make heavy investments in UFA next offseason, I'll completely agree. I can see several justifications for not doing it this offseason, though.
What would be "heavy investment" in your book?

In 2017, the Colts have added 12 free agents for a total 2017 cap hit of $35.480m. That is a lot of cheddar.

Of those 12 players:

- 3 are outright starters (Sheard, Simon, Locke)
- 3 are likely starters (Sean Spence at ILB, Darius Butler at FS, Al Woods at NT)
- 3 will likely be the primary backup to a position (Schwenke at OC/OG, Kamar Aiken at WR, Robert Turbin at RB).
- 3 are depth/developmental (Mingo, Hunt, TE Brandon Williams)


What is "heavy investment" to you? Big names? Top ten contracts? Just players you like?

Honestly, if you are hoping that Ballard is one of those GMs who pays the first day "hyper" contracts to big name stars, you should switch your loyalty to JAX or WAS. He has said that successful NFL teams:

Build the top 1/3 of your roster (i.e. your superstars) through the draft.
Build your middle 1/3 of your roster (solid starters) through free agency.
Build your bottom 1/3 of your roster via UDFA/low round draft/street free agent (depth).

Thinking that Ballard is going to sign "big" free agents to "big" contracts in the next year or three will probably leave you disappointed.

I think we are going to see a whole lot more of what happened this year. Signing guys who have played a lot of NFL games but have not compiled "elite" stats coming off their rookie contracts in their mid-20s whom Ballard believes has more in the tank than they have shown so far (Sheard, Simon, Aiken, Schwenke, Spence) or just completely underperformed their rookie draft position and can be redeemed (Hunt, Mingo). Give them solid contracts, give them opportunities, give them competition and he think he will get some diamonds in the rough out of that pressure cooker.

As long as he can nail some early drafts and get 1 or 2 superstars from each draft class (along with 1 or 2 solid starters), that strat will work just fine. Reserve your big contract money for players whom you have developed and know extensively and deserve it.

But, thinking that we are going to "heavy invest" in free agency by signing one of those way, way overpriced "stars" on day one is probably going to disappoint you.

Cheers,

[VeveJones007]

What would be "heavy investment" in your book?

In 2017, the Colts have added 12 free agents for a total 2017 cap hit of $35.480m. That is a lot of cheddar.

Of those 12 players:

- 3 are outright starters (Sheard, Simon, Locke)
- 3 are likely starters (Sean Spence at ILB, Darius Butler at FS, Al Woods at NT)
- 3 will likely be the primary backup to a position (Schwenke at OC/OG, Kamar Aiken at WR, Robert Turbin at RB).
- 3 are depth/developmental (Mingo, Hunt, TE Brandon Williams)


What is "heavy investment" to you? Big names? Top ten contracts? Just players you like?

Honestly, if you are hoping that Ballard is one of those GMs who pays the first day "hyper" contracts to big name stars, you should switch your loyalty to JAX or WAS. He has said that successful NFL teams:

Build the top 1/3 of your roster (i.e. your superstars) through the draft.
Build your middle 1/3 of your roster (solid starters) through free agency.
Build your bottom 1/3 of your roster via UDFA/low round draft/street free agent (depth).

Thinking that Ballard is going to sign "big" free agents to "big" contracts in the next year or three will probably leave you disappointed.

I think we are going to see a whole lot more of what happened this year. Signing guys who have played a lot of NFL games but have not compiled "elite" stats coming off their rookie contracts in their mid-20s whom Ballard believes has more in the tank than they have shown so far (Sheard, Simon, Aiken, Schwenke, Spence) or just completely underperformed their rookie draft position and can be redeemed (Hunt, Mingo). Give them solid contracts, give them opportunities, give them competition and he think he will get some diamonds in the rough out of that pressure cooker.

As long as he can nail some early drafts and get 1 or 2 superstars from each draft class (along with 1 or 2 solid starters), that strat will work just fine. Reserve your big contract money for players whom you have developed and know extensively and deserve it.

But, thinking that we are going to "heavy invest" in free agency by signing one of those way, way overpriced "stars" on day one is probably going to disappoint you.

Cheers,

The answer to your first question is "signing true difference-makers." Teams like Denver and NYG have shown that you can be effective targeting high-end free agents who make a real difference for your team.

Keep in mind that some of my desire to do that is because of the "use it or lose it" nature of the cap. They don't have to save much cap space to re-sign guys on expiring rookie deals over the next two years, so they will have a lot of money to spend...otherwise it's gone and a lost opportunity.

To maximize this mini rebuild, Ballard needs to

1) Hit on draft picks
2) Make smart mid- to low-tier UFA signings to stabilize the roster and create depth
3) Utilize his excess cap space in 2018-2019 to sign a couple real difference makers via UFA

#3 is pretty simple: either Ballard allocates that cap space via UFA, or it's money in Irsay's pockets. There are only so many guys you can sign to $3-5MM deals when your roster is bereft of expensive contracts.

[sherck]

The answer to your first question is "signing true difference-makers." Teams like Denver and NYG have shown that you can be effective targeting high-end free agents who make a real difference for your team.

Keep in mind that some of my desire to do that is because of the "use it or lose it" nature of the cap. They don't have to save much cap space to re-sign guys on expiring rookie deals over the next two years, so they will have a lot of money to spend...otherwise it's gone and a lost opportunity.

To maximize this mini rebuild, Ballard needs to

1) Hit on draft picks
2) Make smart mid- to low-tier UFA signings to stabilize the roster and create depth
3) Utilize his excess cap space in 2018-2019 to sign a couple real difference makers via UFA

#3 is pretty simple: either Ballard allocates that cap space via UFA, or it's money in Irsay's pockets. There are only so many guys you can sign to $3-5MM deals when your roster is bereft of expensive contracts.
Good answer. Much truth in this but I still think that Ballard will avoid signing the "big" free agents from other teams. Why?

2018 = Vontae Davis (turns 30 before 2018 season), Donte Moncrief (turns 25 before 2018 season), Jack Mewhort (turns 27 before 2018 season). Clear cut starters all of whom will probably be somewhere between "above average NFL starter" to "superstar" on the NFL talent spectrum. All will demand contracts north of $5m a year average who will require "big money" to retain.

2019 = Henry Anderson, Clayton Geathers, Denzell Good, David Parry. Who knows if these guys will be starters or not but they have all shown the ability to be so.

Depending on how the next 2 years go, we could have a lot of guys that the team wants to re-sign. This also does not count folks who, I think, could emerge in 2017 like Rashaan Melvin, Brian Schwenke or Kamar Aiken.

We will see but I think there are a lot of guys whom Ballard could end up wanting to retain that are going to take bigger contracts to do so.

Cheers,

[omahacolt]

If they don't make heavy investments in UFA next offseason, I'll completely agree. I can see several justifications for not doing it this offseason, though.

just one dude though. one clear and definite upgrade. one really good player and i would have liked it better.


aside from getting raped from the pats in a trade

[YDFL Commish]

The answer to your first question is "signing true difference-makers." Teams like Denver and NYG have shown that you can be effective targeting high-end free agents who make a real difference for your team.

Keep in mind that some of my desire to do that is because of the "use it or lose it" nature of the cap. They don't have to save much cap space to re-sign guys on expiring rookie deals over the next two years, so they will have a lot of money to spend...otherwise it's gone and a lost opportunity.

To maximize this mini rebuild, Ballard needs to

1) Hit on draft picks
2) Make smart mid- to low-tier UFA signings to stabilize the roster and create depth
3) Utilize his excess cap space in 2018-2019 to sign a couple real difference makers via UFA

#3 is pretty simple: either Ballard allocates that cap space via UFA, or it's money in Irsay's pockets. There are only so many guys you can sign to $3-5MM deals when your roster is bereft of expensive contracts.

Good post!

An example of what you're saying is the early to mid 2000 Eagles. They were always a contender, with $20 to $30 million in spare cap space, but were always one or two players away from winning it all. What a waste!

For some strange reason though, they would never go out and get the difference makers they needed in free agency.

The Colts cannot duplicate this strategy. I get Ballard not getting difference makers this off-season. But from here on out he's got to hone in on the 1 to guys in free agency that can put this team over the top.

[VeveJones007]

just one dude though. one clear and definite upgrade. one really good player and i would have liked it better.


aside from getting raped from the pats in a trade

I can see where you're coming from, but that cap space will still be there next offseason. It's not like they signed a guy like Osweiler to a bad deal and that is going to limit them moving forward.

[VeveJones007]

Good answer. Much truth in this but I still think that Ballard will avoid signing the "big" free agents from other teams. Why?

2018 = Vontae Davis (turns 30 before 2018 season), Donte Moncrief (turns 25 before 2018 season), Jack Mewhort (turns 27 before 2018 season). Clear cut starters all of whom will probably be somewhere between "above average NFL starter" to "superstar" on the NFL talent spectrum. All will demand contracts north of $5m a year average who will require "big money" to retain.

2019 = Henry Anderson, Clayton Geathers, Denzell Good, David Parry. Who knows if these guys will be starters or not but they have all shown the ability to be so.

Depending on how the next 2 years go, we could have a lot of guys that the team wants to re-sign. This also does not count folks who, I think, could emerge in 2017 like Rashaan Melvin, Brian Schwenke or Kamar Aiken.

We will see but I think there are a lot of guys whom Ballard could end up wanting to retain that are going to take bigger contracts to do so.

Cheers,

I don't think anyone on that list will command more than $5-7MM per, so that's part of the calculation I'm considering that leads me to my prior points. Very loosely:

$50MM in space
-$8MM draft/UDFA
-$21MM re-signing of some of those players

That leaves $21MM for UFAs. You can sign a couple really solid players with that money who can make a difference. That's the kind of "heavy investment" I'm talking about.

[VeveJones007]

Good post!

An example of what you're saying is the early to mid 2000 Eagles. They were always a contender, with $20 to $30 million in spare cap space, but were always one or two players away from winning it all. What a waste!

For some strange reason though, they would never go out and get the difference makers they needed in free agency.

The Colts cannot duplicate this strategy. I get Ballard not getting difference makers this off-season. But from here on out he's got to hone in on the 1 to guys in free agency that can put this team over the top.

I get it if you need to maintain space for re-signing guys down the line, but Grigson was such a bad drafter that we realistically don't have to worry about any re-signs being very expensive until 2021. That leaves a few years where they can afford to sign a couple higher-priced free agents.

[Puck]

The problem that Ballard had is that he needed a lot of replacements. This goes back the the 2013 draft. The players from that draft should have been starters by now. Not all of them but a few. That would have eliminated the numerous holes that this team had. Because there was no one stepping up from that draft class to replace FA's from last yr and the yr before we had too many holes to fill this yr.

I can see what Ballard did. He got as many decent guys as he could to fill as many holes as he could. Knowing that he has to hit in the draft so that they are ready to replace these newly signed FA's in a yr or two. Once he gets the draft going in the right direction he will be able to sign one or two big difference makers in the future and draft for luxury picks like RB's and WR's with 1st round picks.

If you look at the players he has signed, who would you have rather he didn't sign? Who would you have to replace that player?


If anyone thinks he didn't upgrade this D already you're nuts. At least on paper that is.

The draft and cuts are coming. There will be more players added after cuts. I am glad he hasn't spent everything he has to spend yet.


And I still want Lamp in round 1!

[sherck]

The problem that Ballard had is that he needed a lot of replacements. This goes back the the 2013 draft. The players from that draft should have been starters by now. Not all of them but a few. That would have eliminated the numerous holes that this team had. Because there was no one stepping up from that draft class to replace FA's from last yr and the yr before we had too many holes to fill this yr.

I can see what Ballard did. He got as many decent guys as he could to fill as many holes as he could. Knowing that he has to hit in the draft so that they are ready to replace these newly signed FA's in a yr or two. Once he gets the draft going in the right direction he will be able to sign one or two big difference makers in the future and draft for luxury picks like RB's and WR's with 1st round picks.

If you look at the players he has signed, who would you have rather he didn't sign? Who would you have to replace that player?


If anyone thinks he didn't upgrade this D already you're nuts. At least on paper that is.

The draft and cuts are coming. There will be more players added after cuts. I am glad he hasn't spent everything he has to spend yet.


And I still want Lamp in round 1!
I thanked it for everything prior to wanting to draft Lamp.

Defense, defense, defense my friend.

Cheers,

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

[Puck]

I thanked it for everything prior to wanting to draft Lamp.

Defense, defense, defense my friend.

Cheers,

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

Save Luck Save Luck Save Luck my friend!!!!!

[nate505]

How much of that $18 million can be rolled into next year? All of it? Can unlimited money keep getting rolled into the the next seasons (like say could the Colts roll 10 million a year and in three years have $30 million in extra cap space) or at some point does it have to be spent?

[sherck]

How much of that $18 million can be rolled into next year? All of it? Can unlimited money keep getting rolled into the the next seasons (like say could the Colts roll 10 million a year and in three years have $30 million in extra cap space) or at some point does it have to be spent?
Sort of.

Over a rolling 5 year period, teams have to spend at least 90% of their cap.

That means that you can roll small amounts (10% or $16m and under) forever and larger amount ever now and then as long as you stay above 90% average.

Which is why you saw CLE and JAX go crazy in free agency because they were way under and needed to spend near 100% of their cap to bring their rolling average up.

So, it is not "use or lose" except in opportunity cost.

Cheers,

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

[VeveJones007]

Sort of.

Over a rolling 5 year period, teams have to spend at least 90% of their cap.

That means that you can roll small amounts (10% or $16m and under) forever and larger amount ever now and then as long as you stay above 90% average.

Which is why you saw CLE and JAX go crazy in free agency because they were way under and needed to spend near 100% of their cap to bring their rolling average up.

So, it is not "use or lose" except in opportunity cost.

Cheers,

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

Yep, that's what I was trying to articulate by stressing 2018-2019. Do we really want to see them roll over $20MM in cap space until Ballard is ready to start re-signing his draft picks? That's a long time down the round and a missed opportunity for near-term results.

[Puck]

What is the adjustment of $2,202,764 for? Anyone? Bueller? Bueller?




2017 Cap Totals

2017 NFL Salary Cap $167,000,000 2016 Rollover Cap $6,614,106 Adjustment $2,202,764 Adjusted Salary Cap $175,816,870 All Contracts $83,005,885 $21,598,846 $38,306,250 - $40,000 - - $142,630,981 Top 51 Contracts $73,645,885 $21,595,680 $38,306,250 - $40,000 - - $133,270,981 Draft Pool - - - - - - - $6,322,418 Dead Money - $7,576,806 $1,000,000 - - - - $8,576,806 Total (All) $83,620,885 $29,177,652 $39,306,250 - $40,000 - - $151,207,787 Total (w/Top 51) $73,645,885 $29,172,486 $39,306,250 - $40,000 - - $141,847,787 Cap Space (w/All) $24,609,083 Cap Space (w/Top 51 & Projected Draft Pool) $27,646,665 Cap Space (w/Top 51) $33,969,083


WOW that didnt paste well