Colts Cap Update – 13 March 2017

[sherck]

$167.000m = NFL 2017 Cap
$006.614m = Colts roll-over from 2016
===========
$173.614m = Colts 2017 Cap

$121.043m = Colts Top 51 Off-Season Contracts
$001.080m = Spots #52 and #53 on In-Season Active Roster
$006.322m = Estimated Draftee Cap Hit
$006.376m = Dead Money
$003.000m = In-Season “Churn” Space
===========
$137.821m = Obligations

Jabaal Sheard’s contract has still not been released. Straight line averaging would result in an $8.5m per year cap hit so we will add that number as a place-holder although it is likely that the first year number will be higher if Ballard followed the same format as Doyle’s and Simon’s contracts.

[[ EDIT: While I still don't have complete info, news is now stating that Sheard's first year cap hit will be $9.96m with the 2018 hit being $7.5m and 2019 being $8.0m. No pro-rated signing bonus so all the "guaranteed" money will be in year one. This is becoming the standard Ballard contract structure. ]]

$147.781m = Estimated Obligations (NEW NUMBER)

$025.833m = Available “New” Money Cap Space to sign free agents (New Number)


Top Ten Cap Hits:

$19.400m = Andrew Luck
$12.800m = Anthony Castonozo
$10.250m = Vontae Davis
$10.000m = T.Y. Hilton
$09.960m = Jabaal Sheard (New Number)
$08.000m = Jack Doyle
$07.350m = Arthur Jones
$06.000m = John Simon
$04.250m = Kendall Langford
$03.500m = Frank Gore

To only have 10 guys with over a $3.500m cap hit indicates that we really do not have many “high priced” talents on the team.

Cap Savings Over $1.000m If Cut:

$09.000m = Vontae Davis
$05.150m = Arthur Jones
$04.400m = Anthony Castonzo
$04.000m = T.Y. Hilton
$03.750m = Kendall Langford
$03.500m = Frank Gore
$02.750m = Adam Vinatieri
$02.100m = Akeem Ayers
$01.797m = Donte Moncrief
$01.750m = Scott Tolzien
$01.500m = Barkevious Mingo

Lots of money left to sign one of the ILBs who can cover (Hightower, Brown, Hodges, Minter), perhaps a NT (Johnathan Hawkins, Bennie Logan) although neither are better than NFL average (or below average) and a secondary body if desired.

Why the heck are none of the ILBs moving? Of the top 8 ILBs on the UFA market (Hightower, Riley, Brown, Hodges, Minter, Armstrong, Levy, Spence), only Armstrong is signed. This is the only position in free agency where impact players are still available five days into free agency. Why?

And why have we not signed our pick of them? Were we waiting to see if we signed Poe? If so, that ship is sailing; let’s go to the next priority!

For those of you who are not opposed to Pro Football Focus grades, here are the top twenty remaining 2016 graded Unrestricted Free Agents who are unsigned. Bolded are the ones that I think fit the Colts:

Terence Newman, CB, aged 39 (age)
Don’t’a Hightower, ILB, aged 27
Perry Riley, ILB, aged 31 (age)
Morris Clairborne, CB, aged 27 (zone)
Zach Brown, ILB, aged 27
Lardarius Webb, S, aged 31 (age)
Darius Butler, CB/S, aged 31
Gerald Hodges, ILB, aged 26
J.J. Wilcox, S, aged 26
Kevin Minter, ILB, aged 26
Lorenzo Alexander, OLB, aged 34 (age)
Isa Abdul-Quddus, S, aged 28 (zone)
Bradley McDougald, S, aged 26
Jared Cook, TE, aged 30 (offense)
Jerome Felton, FB, aged 31 (offense)
Nickell Robey-Coleman, CB, aged 25 (zone)
Dwight Freeney, DE/OLB, aged 37 (age)
Jarius Byrd, S, aged 30 (not yet cut but going to be)
Nick Mangold, OC, aged 33 (age)
Darryl Tapp, 4-3 DE, aged 32 (age; wrong position)

Lots of ILB and Safeties that are on the correct side of 30 in that list. Could be positions where we could still sign some help for the defense. We have the room to do so.

Cheers,

[sherck]

$025.833m Cap for Free Agents

Robert Turbin - Around $2m a year
Margus Hunt - ???
Brian Schwenke - ???

My guess is that Hunt is less than $2m a year but that Schwenke is around or more than $2m a year so I will estimate an average of $2m a year.

$019.833m Cap for New Free Agents.


Based on the bargain deals that Ballard keeps spending, that could equate to 3 more veteran free agents (at around $6m each) or two more highly priced ones.

Cheers,

[smitty46953]

Hey Scherk, do you have a spreadsheet that has number players on current roster? What we need to reach 90? Current cap situation? :cool:

[sherck]

Cap situation in post above yours.

66 bodies under contract
7 draftees

17 more to fill 90 man roster

Cheers,

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

[Wyatt]

didn't know which thread to post this to, but here goes

@HolderStephen 2m2 minutes ago
Just got #Colts performance based pay. Top 5: Joe Haeg $276K, Edwin Jackson $211K, David Parry $176K, Erik Swoope $166K, Denzelle Good $165K

[rcubed]

didn't know which thread to post this to, but here goes

@HolderStephen 2m2 minutes ago
Just got #Colts performance based pay. Top 5: Joe Haeg $276K, Edwin Jackson $211K, David Parry $176K, Erik Swoope $166K, Denzelle Good $165K

Parry's lawyer thanks this post.

[sherck]

didn't know which thread to post this to, but here goes

@HolderStephen 2m2 minutes ago
Just got #Colts performance based pay. Top 5: Joe Haeg $276K, Edwin Jackson $211K, David Parry $176K, Erik Swoope $166K, Denzelle Good $165K
Considering that Joe Haeg got paid $242k in signing bonus and then $450k in salary for 2016, an extra $276k represents 28.5% of his total money paid for his first year in the league. That is a pretty nice performance bonus.

Edwin Jackson did better from the standpoint that he got paid a flat $450k to play football in 2016. The extra $211k he got represents an almost 50% increase in his pay for the year. That is some nice cheddar.

Cheers,

[sherck]

Numbers are in on Turbin's deal:

2017 = $1.381m cap hit ($800k salary; $581k roster bonus)
2018 = $1.300m cap hit ($1.000m salary, $300k per game active bonus)

Solidly good numbers; only $500k guaranteed. He could get cut this year before the season and still deliver back $881k in cap space. Next season he has zero dead money possible so he could be cut without cap ramifications.

Good signing for a solid backup. Hopefully, we draft some rookie in the 4th round and Turbin gets pushed down to #3 by mid-year.

Still no contract numbers on Hunt or Schwenke.

Cheers,

[sherck]

St Patty’s Day Cap Update – 17 March 2017

On 08 March 2017, the Colts started with around $49.418m in free cap space to use to sign new free agents. Since then, the Colts GM Chris Ballard has made the following moves:

$8.000m (-) = Re-signed TE Jack Doyle (actually happened previously but the numbers were not out yet)
$1.937m (+) = Traded TE Dwayne Allen to the Cheats
$0.598m (-) = Cap hit for new 4th round draft choice #137 overall from the Cheats
$0.501m (+) = Cap savings for traded away 6th round draft choice #200 overall to Cheats
$2.500m (+) = Released CB Patrick Robinson
$1.750m (-) = Signed P Jeff Locke as our new starting Punter
$5.843m (-) = Signed OLB John Simon as new starting OLB[EDGE]
$2.000m (-) = Signed OLB Barkevious Mingo as rotational pass rush specialist / Special Teamer
$9.968m (-) = Signed OLB Jabaal Sheard as new starting OLB[RUSH]
$2.068m (-) = Signed DE Margus Hunt as rotational defensive end depth / Special Teamer
$1.300m (-) = Signed OC/OG Brian Schwenke as potential starting right OG or veteran interior depth
$1.381m (-) = Signed RB Robert Turbin to be the primary rotational RB with Frank Gore (and/or a rookie)

We don't have numbers for new NT Al Woods but it is reported that his deal is 2-year, $5m total so we will use the number of $2.500m as his 2017 cap hit

$2.500m (-) = Signed NT Al Woods to be a rotational NT in our 3-4 defense (with who?)

$18.948m still available to sign free agents.


From a cap standpoint, the only guy that I wonder if we overpaid is Sheard. We paid him like a pass rusher (who are always overpaid) but he is not a double digit sack master. He has had at least 7.0 sacks a season in 3 of his 6 seasons and at least 5.0 sacks in 2 other seasons but we paid him as if he were a rush OLB and he really is not.

Alas, anyone who sacks the QB get overpaid in this league so we probably overpaid him....but honestly not by much I don't think.

=======================================
So, Ballard has used $30.470m of cap space to add nine new bodies to a sub-standard roster while getting rid of two underperforming bodies:

OFFENSE
Re-sign our stud young TE offensive weapon (Doyle)
Trade away our highly paid but underperforming other TE (Allen)
Sign a potential new starting right OG or else our primary depth at OC/OG (Schwenke)
Re-sign our #2 RB (Turbin)

DEFENSE:
Cut our underperforming CB2 (Robinson)
Sign 2 new starting OLBs (Simon and Sheard)
Sign 2 cheap, underperforming but with potential defensive front-7 depth players (Mingo, Hunt)
Sign rotational NT (Woods)

SPECIAL TEAMS:
Sign a new Punter (Locke)


As long as we can sign one of the ILBs left on the market (Brown, Hodges, Minter) and re-sign Butler than I think we will have done a pretty good job of filling quite a few holes in free agency.

Cheers,

[Racehorse]

St Patty’s Day Cap Update – 17 March 2017

On 08 March 2017, the Colts started with around $49.418m in free cap space to use to sign new free agents. Since then, the Colts GM Chris Ballard has made the following moves:

$8.000m (-) = Re-signed TE Jack Doyle (actually happened previously but the numbers were not out yet)
$1.937m (+) = Traded TE Dwayne Allen to the Cheats
$0.598m (-) = Cap hit for new 4th round draft choice #137 overall from the Cheats
$0.501m (+) = Cap savings for traded away 6th round draft choice #200 overall to Cheats
$2.500m (+) = Released CB Patrick Robinson
$1.750m (-) = Signed P Jeff Locke as our new starting Punter
$5.843m (-) = Signed OLB John Simon as new starting OLB[EDGE]
$2.000m (-) = Signed OLB Barkevious Mingo as rotational pass rush specialist / Special Teamer
$9.968m (-) = Signed OLB Jabaal Sheard as new starting OLB[RUSH]
$2.068m (-) = Signed DE Margus Hunt as rotational defensive end depth / Special Teamer
$1.300m (-) = Signed OC/OG Brian Schwenke as potential starting right OG or veteran interior depth
$1.381m (-) = Signed RB Robert Turbin to be the primary rotational RB with Frank Gore (and/or a rookie)

We don't have numbers for new NT Al Woods but it is reported that his deal is 2-year, $5m total so we will use the number of $2.500m as his 2017 cap hit

$2.500m (-) = Signed NT Al Woods to be a rotational NT in our 3-4 defense (with who?)

$18.948m still available to sign free agents.


From a cap standpoint, the only guy that I wonder if we overpaid is Sheard. We paid him like a pass rusher (who are always overpaid) but he is not a double digit sack master. He has had at least 7.0 sacks a season in 3 of his 6 seasons and at least 5.0 sacks in 2 other seasons but we paid him as if he were a rush OLB and he really is not.

Alas, anyone who sacks the QB get overpaid in this league so we probably overpaid him....but honestly not by much I don't think.

=======================================
So, Ballard has used $30.470m of cap space to add nine new bodies to a sub-standard roster while getting rid of two underperforming bodies:

OFFENSE
Re-sign our stud young TE offensive weapon (Doyle)
Trade away our highly paid but underperforming other TE (Allen)
Sign a potential new starting right OG or else our primary depth at OC/OG (Schwenke)
Re-sign our #2 RB (Turbin)

DEFENSE:
Cut our underperforming CB2 (Robinson)
Sign 2 new starting OLBs (Simon and Sheard)
Sign 2 cheap, underperforming but with potential defensive front-7 depth players (Mingo, Hunt)
Sign rotational NT (Woods)

SPECIAL TEAMS:
Sign a new Punter (Locke)


As long as we can sign one of the ILBs left on the market (Brown, Hodges, Minter) and re-sign Butler than I think we will have done a pretty good job of filling quite a few holes in free agency.

Cheers,
Add in Butler as a positive move.

[sherck]

We don't have numbers for new NT Al Woods but it is reported that his deal is 2-year, $5m total so we will use the number of $2.500m as his 2017 cap hit

$2.500m (-) = Signed NT Al Woods to be a rotational NT in our 3-4 defense (with who?)

$18.948m still available to sign free agents.
We don't have numbers for returning CB/S Darius Butler but it is reported that his deal is 1-year, $3.0m deal with up to $1.5m in "unlikely to be earned" incentives.

$3.000m (-) Signed CB/S Darius Butler as secondary depth.

We don't have numbers for returning ILB Sean Spence but it is reported that his deal is 1-year, $3.0m.

$3.000m (-) Signed ILB Sean Spence as competition for starting ILB.

$12.948m still available to sign free agents.

Cheers,

[Puck]

Spotrac has us higher...


What is the difference?

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/indianapolis-colts/cap/

[Dam8610]

Spotrac has us higher...


What is the difference?

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/indianapolis-colts/cap/

Sherck takes into account things like rookie contracts, additional FA wiggle room needed in season, etc., which lowers his number from the actual number but gives a clearer picture of what can actually be spent.

[sherck]

Sherck takes into account things like rookie contracts, additional FA wiggle room needed in season, etc., which lowers his number from the actual number but gives a clearer picture of what can actually be spent.
Aye.

From that $31.706m, subtract:

$6.322m = Estimated draft pool class
$3.000m = Darius Butler
$3.000m = "Churn" space in-season
$2.500m = Al Woods
$1.200m = Estimated 10 man practice squad
$1.080m = Spots #52 and #53 on the active roster

Which gets us down to $13.604. The difference is that I estimated that Sean Spence would cost us $3.000m in cap space and Spotrac is only showing $2.468m which I need to dig into.

Anyway, that is the long answer. When I list a "Cap Space Available," that is the cap space to spend on NEW contracts; either our own or folks from different teams.

Cheers,

[Racehorse]

Sherck takes into account things like rookie contracts, additional FA wiggle room needed in season, etc., which lowers his number from the actual number but gives a clearer picture of what can actually be spent.
In other words, Sherck is better at it than those other guys.

[omahacolt]

In other words, Sherck is better at it than those other guys.

Yes

He is

[smitty46953]

In other words, Sherck is better at it than those other guys.

Yes he is the best ... :cool:

[sherck]

To be fair, their numbers are accurate.

They are just measuring a different number. They are measuring total remaining cap space.

I am measuring usable cap space to sign new money.

I feel mine is a more useful number but their number is still accurate.

Cheers,

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

[Puck]

To be fair, their numbers are accurate.

They are just measuring a different number. They are measuring total remaining cap space.

I am measuring usable cap space to sign new money.

I feel mine is a more useful number but their number is still accurate.

Cheers,

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

What is the difference between.

Cap Space (Top 51 only) $29,371,319
Cap Space (Total Cap) $21,016,319

That's 8,355,000.

[sherck]

What is the difference between.

Cap Space (Top 51 only)$29,371,319
Cap Space (Total Cap)$21,016,319

That's 8,355,000.
In the off season, the NFL only counts the top 51 contracts against the cap for some reason...most likely to give teams a bit more room to maneuver. That is the "Top 51" number.

The "Total Cap" numbet is the cap hit for every player under contract. Just before camp, it should be for all 90 players. It is a useless number, IMO. I have no idea why Spotrac reports it.

Cheers,

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

[indycolts2]

I probably missed it earlier......Mcafee's cap savings due to retirement already figured into your numbers?

[sherck]

I probably missed it earlier......Mcafee's cap savings due to retirement already figured into your numbers?
Yup.....

Cheers,

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

[Indiana V2]

I love Sherck.

[sherck]

I love Sherck.
[Uncomfortably backs away slowly with a strained look on his face]

I love you too, bro.


Cheers,

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

[Puck]

In the off season, the NFL only counts the top 51 contracts against the cap for some reason...most likely to give teams a bit more room to maneuver. That is the "Top 51" number.

The "Total Cap" numbet is the cap hit for every player under contract. Just before camp, it should be for all 90 players. It is a useless number, IMO. I have no idea why Spotrac reports it.

Cheers,

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

I'm starting to get interested in this in some weird Sherck like way..... Not that I will be a guru like you, but it is interesting and I am trying to understand it, so sorry for all the questions (not really)

The Top 51 + pool includes the draft picks correct?

Est. Cap Space (All):
$21,016,319
Est. Cap Space (Top 51+Pool):
$23,048,901
Est. Cap Space (Top 51):
$29,371,319


So from there you take out 52 & 53 at about 1 million and churn at 3+ million

If that (all) is for the 60 man roster wouldn't that take into account for the practice squad?


That would take us down to about 19 million but they dont have Aiken, Williams, Woods


I'm trying to get down to your 13 million number.....

[Wyatt]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C7fENz0W0AITKrZ.jpg

[Puck]

Wyatt. Post this again in the Draft thread. It will help as we look at needs etc

I'd say add it to the FA thread but I have to believe we are done there because we are not going to go much under 10 million.


Good find BTW

[sherck]

I'm starting to get interested in this in some weird Sherck like way..... Not that I will be a guru like you, but it is interesting and I am trying to understand it, so sorry for all the questions (not really)

The Top 51 + pool includes the draft picks correct?
Correct. Their number of "Top 51 + pool" is an estimate of where the Colts are right now with their top 51 off-season contacts and an estimated amount for the Colts draft class. They will be pretty close due to how the rookie pay scale is established but it will not be dead on.

So from there you take out 52 & 53 at about 1 million and churn at 3+ million
Correct. Spots 52 and 53 will most likely cost us $540k each although it is possible that younger, cheaper talent will fight their way onto the roster and each only cost us $485k each. But I use the $540k number for a total of $1.080m.

Grigson indicated early on that you needed to keep around $3m as a minimum for sign players to the active roster to cover those who go to IR. If we are signing $540k a year guys, that amount is pro-rated for how many games they stay on the active roster but it ends up equaling six "season long" replacement bodies which is typically enough to cover a season of injury.

If that (all) is for the 60 man roster wouldn't that take into account for the practice squad?
Spotrac's "All" number is not for the 50 off season active + practice squad. It is for "all" contracts the Colts have signed....up to a total of 90. It is a useless number.

The minimum pay for the 10-man practice squad in 2016 was $6,300 a week x 17 weeks x 10 players = $1.071m in cap hit for the yearlong practice squad. I keep using a figure of $1.200m because it will jump a bit this year but that final number will not be available until around June.

That would take us down to about 19 million but they dont have Aiken, Williams, Woods

I'm trying to get down to your 13 million number.....
So, let's start from the top using Spotrac numbers, shall we?

$167.000m = 2017 NFL Cap Space
$006.614m = 2016 Colts rollover cap
========
$173.614m = 2017 Adjusted Colts Cap Space. I agree with this amount.

$137.865m = Top 51 contract obligations. Their amount, see below.
$006.376m = Dead Money ($5m is Allen + Robinson so we had very little before those 2 Ballard driven moves)
$006.322m = 2017 Draft Pool
========
$150.563m = Current Cap Obligations

$023.048m = Free Cap Space. Same number as Spotrac

However, as you pointed out, they don't have Woods in their numbers which I did to get down to $13.6m.

Woods signed a 2-year, $5m deal which I have been calculating as being a $2.5m cap hit for each year.

$20.548m Free Cap Space

Practice Squad, Churn space and Spots #52 and #53 on the active roster = $5.280m

$15.268m Free Cap Space which is $1.668m HIGHER than I was calculating.

This is where Spotrac and I differ because I don’t agree with how Spotrac is calculating their “Likely To Be Earned” bonuses and a difference on what I think two players are being accounted for in their cap hit.

I have Sean Spence at a $3.000m cap hit as reported but Spotrac has him at $2.468m. $532k difference.
I have Darius Buter at a $3.500m cap hit as reported but Spotrac has him at $2.875m. $625k difference.
Sheard is still $32k off from what I think he should be.
Simon is still $167k off from what I think he should be.
Turbin is still $119k off from what I think he should be.
By my understanding, Alex Bazzie should be counting as $540k but Spotrac has him at $465k.
By my understanding, Fahn Cooper should be counting as $540k but Spotrac has him at $465k.

Added together, all those differences total $1.625m which is within tolerance of the 1.668m differential that I have with Spotrac. Since I don't get to see the actual signed contracts, this is close enough for government work.

That is how I got down to the $13.6m number from previously.

Clear as mud?

Cheers,