Interesting SI Article

[sherck]

Located here (https://www.si.com/nfl/2017/12/27/2018-nfl-mock-draft-notes-marcus-davenport-quenton-nelson-tremaine-edmunds-derwin-james).

Basic ideal; SI's Albert Breer made a mock draft and then showed it to NFL scouts. The article is a summary of what the NFL scouts said about his mock draft.

High Points:
After four months of calling around, I feel good about the first four picks. And those are USC quarterback Sam Darnold, UCLA quarterback Josh Rosen, Penn State running back Saquon Barkley and N.C. State defensive end Bradley Chubb. My sense is that, provided they all come out (Darnold is a redshirt sophomore, Rosen and Barkley are juniors, Chubb is a senior), the quarterbacks are safe bets to go inside the Top 5, but it’s the other two who are among the three best players in this class.

And the third of the top-three overall prospects is a guard. That’s right, a guard. Notre Dame’s Quenton Nelson is probably the most agreed upon prospect that I’ve discussed with scouts. When I told an exec last week that I’d probably write that Nelson was “maybe a better guard prospect than ex-teammate Zack Martin,” he told me to take the “maybe” out of there. In 2014, Martin, you may remember, became the first rookie linemen to make first-team All-Pro in 57 years. I had Nelson going fifth in my mock.
I would not be a fan of picking Barkley with the 3rd pick. Not that I don't think he is going to be a great RB at the NFL level; I just think we need to build a more complete team prior to adding the high powered RB to the offense. Build an actualy O-Line and get our defense to NFL average and then I am all for drafting the stud RB.

However, between Chubb or Nelson, I am all in. I don't really care which we would end up picking because I would be happy with either of them; they help solve 2 of our largest three holes on the team (O-Line, Pass Rush, ILB) and everything I am reading says that they are both the real deal.

​The offensive linemen, in general, are pretty good. And they’re a lot better than they were last year, when none went in the first 15 picks for the first time in draft history. In addition to Nelson, I had his teammate, Mike McGlinchey and Conor Williams of Texas as left tackle prospects going inside the first eight picks, and five O-linemen in the first round.
If Ballard decides to trade down a bit to pile up picks, one of these OTs would be a fine consolation prize to pick in addition to getting the more picks.

From a different SI article about Senior Bowl invites:
There are four small school OT prospects who have a chance to really help themselvesat the Senior Bowl: Humbolt State’s Alex Cappa, North Carolina A&T’s Brandon Parker, Stony Brook’s Timon Parris and West Georgia’s Desmond Harrison have shown NFL potential during their career.
Getting invited to the Senior Bowl is the premier way that you improve your NFL draft stock for guys whom are not sure-fire first round picks and a pretty good ticket into being drafted in the top 3 rounds of the NFL draft if you perform well regardless of the school size you came from.

At OT, the 2018 Senior Bowl invites were:

Mike McGlinchey, Notre Dame (DECLINED)
Conor Williams, Texas (DECLINED)
Brian O'Neill, Pittsburgh (DECLINED)
Jamarco Jones, Ohio State (DECLINED)
Orlando Brown, Oklahoma (DECLINED)
Kolton Miller, UCLA (DECLINED)

Tyrell Crosby, Oregon
Alex Cappa, Humboldt State
Cole Madison, Washington State
Chukwuma Okorafor, Western Michigan
Martinas Rankin, Mississippi State
Desmond Harrison, West Georgia
Brandon Parker, North Carolina A&T
Timon Parris, Stony Brook

Picking up either Chubb or Nelson in the 1st round and following that pick with the best available OT in the 2nd round would be about my dream start to the 2018 NFL draft regardless of what we end up doing in free agency. Pass Rush, O-Line and then ILB. Fix those are we are well on our way (assuming Luck returns) to being back in the playoff hunt again with a new coaching staff and offensive/defensive systems.

Walk Worthy,

[DrSpaceman]

Good info, especially since I don't follow college football much

This is complicated by the fact there are rumbling of Rosen refusing to go to Cleveland.

I'd be fine with Chubb or Nelson as a top five pick, assuming the Colts are there. I'd prefer chubb, but I'd be fine with Nelson if he is that good. The Colts OL is horrible and has been for years, so anything to upgrade it I am good with, I don't care if its a guard at a top five pick. Just make the commitment to fix the problem.

[testcase448]

Chubb, then o-line. Looks there may be some decent tackles in the second round.
Chubb makes the DBs and LBs better. OK not better but less vulnerable

[DragonTails]

Good info, especially since I don't follow college football much

This is complicated by the fact there are rumbling of Rosen refusing to go to Cleveland.

I'd be fine with Chubb or Nelson as a top five pick, assuming the Colts are there. I'd prefer chubb, but I'd be fine with Nelson if he is that good. The Colts OL is horrible and has been for years, so anything to upgrade it I am good with, I don't care if its a guard at a top five pick. Just make the commitment to fix the problem.

They've been committed to fixing the oline the last 5 years. The problem is the scouts, coaches, and GM don't have a clue what a good O linemen is. How many turds did they draft the last 5 years.

They should be drafting 0 skill positions this off season. We need trenches and LBs - that's what wins championships.

If they trade down they can go fk themselves. We needs studs not projects or reaches.

If pags and all the other coaches are still here in 10 days none of this will matter anyway.

[Racehorse]

They've been committed to fixing the oline the last 5 years. The problem is the scouts, coaches, and GM don't have a clue what a good O linemen is. How many turds did they draft the last 5 years.

They should be drafting 0 skill positions this off season. We need trenches and LBs - that's what wins championships.

If they trade down they can go fk themselves. We needs studs not projects or reaches.

If pags and all the other coaches are still here in 10 days none of this will matter anyway.

I mostly agree. However, if you can trade down and get two first round studs, then why not?

[sherck]

I mostly agree. However, if you can trade down and get two first round studs, then why not?

The issue being current year picks or future year picks.

If you are okay with future year picks, then our #3 pick (possible #2 pick) is probably worth two 1st round picks for anyone moving up more than about 4 spots. To go from, say, #9 to #3 would take both this year's first round pick (#9 overall), next year's first round pick and perhaps some lower round picks this year. Every team in the NFL could do that as no one has yet traded away their 2019 first round pick.

However, if you wanted multiple first round picks in 2017, then the only team that can do that is BUF as they have their own pick (currently #17) and KCs pick (unknown due to playoffs). To move that far up, they would have to trade three first round picks (both of this year's plus their 2018 first round pick) plus probably other picks as well.

We need help now. I don't love the idea of trading down to get future picks, honestly.

Walk Worthy,

[Racehorse]

The issue being current year picks or future year picks.

If you are okay with future year picks, then our #3 pick (possible #2 pick) is probably worth two 1st round picks for anyone moving up more than about 4 spots. To go from, say, #9 to #3 would take both this year's first round pick (#9 overall), next year's first round pick and perhaps some lower round picks this year. Every team in the NFL could do that as no one has yet traded away their 2019 first round pick.

However, if you wanted multiple first round picks in 2017, then the only team that can do that is BUF as they have their own pick (currently #17) and KCs pick (unknown due to playoffs). To move that far up, they would have to trade three first round picks (both of this year's plus their 2018 first round pick) plus probably other picks as well.

We need help now. I don't love the idea of trading down to get future picks, honestly.

Walk Worthy,Yeah, I realized after I posted it that we would not likely get two firsts, but possibly a first and a second in this year's draft.

[GoBigBlue88]

I don't watch enough CFB to have my own opinions, but it does strike me that I haven't really ever seen Chubb discussed/written about like I saw Garrett or Clowney or Von Miller etc. Maybe I just haven't seen the right discussions, but I do wonder how much Chubb is really a top 3 player on talent vs a top 3 player because edge-rushers are valued.

[omahacolt]

I don't watch enough CFB to have my own opinions, but it does strike me that I haven't really ever seen Chubb discussed/written about like I saw Garrett or Clowney or Von Miller etc. Maybe I just haven't seen the right discussions, but I do wonder how much Chubb is really a top 3 player on talent vs a top 3 player because edge-rushers are valued.

the little i have watched of him didnt really stand out. he doesn't seem to have a great get off. i just don't see the athleticism. but i haven't watched much and i am no expert.

i mainly want the position right now. i just don't want to come away without an elite type pass rusher when we suffered through the nonsense of this season.

[albany ed]

I don't watch enough CFB to have my own opinions, but it does strike me that I haven't really ever seen Chubb discussed/written about like I saw Garrett or Clowney or Von Miller etc. Maybe I just haven't seen the right discussions, but I do wonder how much Chubb is really a top 3 player on talent vs a top 3 player because edge-rushers are valued.


Last year, Garrett was talked about a lot because there were really no bonafide QBs projected in the first 10 draft choices. This year, there's likely to be 3, maybe even 4 in the top 10 choices. They get the lion's share of the ink.

[YDFL Commish]

Assuming that the new coaching staff sticks with the 3-4, how does Chubb fit in as a 3-4 OLB?

[VeveJones007]

I don't watch enough CFB to have my own opinions, but it does strike me that I haven't really ever seen Chubb discussed/written about like I saw Garrett or Clowney or Von Miller etc. Maybe I just haven't seen the right discussions, but I do wonder how much Chubb is really a top 3 player on talent vs a top 3 player because edge-rushers are valued.

Chubb isn’t on that level, but the only player in this draft that is on that level is a RB. Chubb will be a very good player nonetheless.

[Butter]

I struggle with taking a G or RB with a top 3 pick.

[Racehorse]

I struggle with taking a G or RB with a top 3 pick.
Most do, but if the others do not grade out, you have to take what helps the franchise the most.Nelson could be that sort of player. Barkley is very talented, but a luxury that we cannot afford.

[DrSpaceman]

They've been committed to fixing the oline the last 5 years. The problem is the scouts, coaches, and GM don't have a clue what a good O linemen is. How many turds did they draft the last 5 years.

They should be drafting 0 skill positions this off season. We need trenches and LBs - that's what wins championships.

If they trade down they can go fk themselves. We needs studs not projects or reaches.

If pags and all the other coaches are still here in 10 days none of this will matter anyway.

As far as top picks they have used for OL in the last 5 years it as been Mewhort and Kelley, both of whom have been pretty good picks. Mewhort has been injured, but serviceable at least when healthy.

And it was the prior GM that drafted them.

They have not made a real commitment to fix the OL other than that. Second rate FAs and mid to lower round draft picks.

[DrSpaceman]

I struggle with taking a G or RB with a top 3 pick.

I certainly do not want a RB taken with a top 3 pick.

A guard I understand is questionable with a pick that high but if they are a projected to be a definite 10 years solid starter in this league, given the OL problems, and there is no chance to trade down a bit and still get him, I am fine with it.

If the pick works out no one in 5 years is going to be criticizing your for taking a guard that high. We saw this when Freeney was selected. The consensus of EVERYONE at the time was good player, but Colts took him too high. Who cares? He was the cornerstone of the D for the better part of a decade.

[GoBigBlue88]

the little i have watched of him didnt really stand out. he doesn't seem to have a great get off. i just don't see the athleticism. but i haven't watched much and i am no expert.

i mainly want the position right now. i just don't want to come away without an elite type pass rusher when we suffered through the nonsense of this season.

Or if there isn't an elite one available, don't draft him top 3. If the scouting staff doesn't determine there is a Pro Bowl potential edge rusher at 3, I'd rather they trade down and take that EDGE later, maybe even in round 2.

Not saying that's the case for Chubb. Just saying, if the scouting staff determines he's more Charles Harris than Myles Garrett.

[FatDT]

I've only watched one game and some highlights of Chubb. Obviously not an expert or even that into CFB. The one game was against FSU and he was a real problem to deal with the entire game. He abused the QB. Two sacks and I don't know how many QB hits.

I've read he's a more athletic Derek Barnett, who I was very high on last year. I don't really see that so much. I agree he's the better athlete but to me Barnett was stronger, a lineman that could transition to OLB but was probably a better fit in an even front rushing with his hand down. Chubb seems like the better transition prospect.

I like that he is athletic enough to not worry about, that he tries hard, that he produced consistently, and that he wants to be great. He's not a Garrett or Clown eye, those guys don't come along often. But I like him well enough that I'll trust it's a good pick if Ballard likes him.

[VeveJones007]

Or if there isn't an elite one available, don't draft him top 3. If the scouting staff doesn't determine there is a Pro Bowl potential edge rusher at 3, I'd rather they trade down and take that EDGE later, maybe even in round 2.

Not saying that's the case for Chubb. Just saying, if the scouting staff determines he's more Charles Harris than Myles Garrett.

What if he’s more James Harrison/Chandler Jones than Clowney/Bosa? Problem is also that this isn’t taking place in a vacuum. The top of this draft is relatively weak and they may be better off staying put and taking a good (but not franchise-changing) player.

[testcase448]

If ... IF.... we could trade number three for two first round picks, this year and one next year, AND a fairly early second round pick this year, I'd do it
We can't fix this train wreck in one year anyway. Normally I'd cringe at two additional rookie offensive line starting in front of a surgically repaired Luck, but the o-line is so bad it would be an improvement. IF Luck can ever comes back he won't last long with what we have.
A Tarik Glenn, Adam Meadows type draft would help keep Luck alive

[Coltsalr]

the little i have watched of him didnt really stand out. he doesn't seem to have a great get off. i just don't see the athleticism. but i haven't watched much and i am no expert.

i mainly want the position right now. i just don't want to come away without an elite type pass rusher when we suffered through the nonsense of this season.

I don't watch enough CFB to have my own opinions, but it does strike me that I haven't really ever seen Chubb discussed/written about like I saw Garrett or Clowney or Von Miller etc. Maybe I just haven't seen the right discussions, but I do wonder how much Chubb is really a top 3 player on talent vs a top 3 player because edge-rushers are valued.

I've only watched one game and some highlights of Chubb. Obviously not an expert or even that into CFB. The one game was against FSU and he was a real problem to deal with the entire game. He abused the QB. Two sacks and I don't know how many QB hits.

I've read he's a more athletic Derek Barnett, who I was very high on last year. I don't really see that so much. I agree he's the better athlete but to me Barnett was stronger, a lineman that could transition to OLB but was probably a better fit in an even front rushing with his hand down. Chubb seems like the better transition prospect.

I like that he is athletic enough to not worry about, that he tries hard, that he produced consistently, and that he wants to be great. He's not a Garrett or Clown eye, those guys don't come along often. But I like him well enough that I'll trust it's a good pick if Ballard likes him.

What if he’s more James Harrison/Chandler Jones than Clowney/Bosa? Problem is also that this isn’t taking place in a vacuum. The top of this draft is relatively weak and they may be better off staying put and taking a good (but not franchise-changing) player.

I encourage you all to look at Minkah Fitzpatrick.

Yeah, he’s not pass rush. But he I believe does have that super Uber talent you look for in the top 5. He wouldn’t improve our biggest weakness on defense but he would improve the defense.