What should a contract extension for Colts RB Jonathan Taylor look like?

[JAFF]

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What should a contract extension for Colts RB Jonathan Taylor look like?



How much is Colts running back Jonathan Taylor worth?

The No. 1 question for Colts training camp remains rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson. But No. 2 has quickly become the future of Taylor after team owner Jim Irsay and Taylor's agent, Malki Kawa, traded barbs over the running back's value Wednesday night.

More:‘Bad faith is not paying your top offensive player’: Taylor’s agent fires back at Irsay

The only thing that's surprising about teams and running backs sparring over contracts is that it took this long.

First off, running backs aren't quite as interchangeable as generally believed. Rookie first-round running backs have averaged 785 yards per season, second-rounders 532, third-rounders 404 and fourth-rounders 287. But star running backs are easier to find later in the draft than many other positions.


Secondly, running backs can retain their value deep into their careers. Since Taylor was selected in the second round, I looked at all running backs taken then between 2003-22. As rookies, those backs averaged 123 carries for 532 yards, a 4.3 average, and 4 touchdowns. The running backs that reached Year 6 averaged 158 carries for 647 yards, 4.1 average, and 4 touchdowns.

But that's the obvious issue. By Year 6, 52.8% of running backs selected in the second round are out of the NFL.

Doyel:Colts RB Jonathan Taylor knows he won't get a huge contract and isn't taking it well

Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor (28) passes on the sideline Wednesday, June 14, 2023, during mandatory minicamp at the Indiana Farm Bureau Football Center in Indianapolis.
Committing guaranteed money to running backs long term is simply not a smart play. That, however, increases the incentive for running backs to go to greater lengths to get guaranteed money.

This issue is further complicated, of course, by the collective bargaining agreement, which allows teams to franchise tag potential free agents for the average salary of the top 5 players at the position, which was $10.091 million for running backs this season. Teams can then use a second franchise tag at 120% of that figure − $12.109 million for 2024. (The numbers will be slightly different for Taylor next season, but we'll use those.)


Effectively, the Colts can retain Taylor for two more years at roughly $22 million with limited risk.

The reasons to sign him to a longer, larger extension would be to avoid a holdout and any acrimony that would be a distraction to the team or lead to him leaving in free agency after the 2025 season.


So, what's Taylor worth?

The highest paid running backs by average salary are Christian McCaffrey ($16 million) and Alvin Kamara ($15 million). Both, however, are better receivers than Taylor, increasing their value. It's hard to see the Colts approaching those contract figures.

Next on the list are Derrick Henry ($12.5 million), Nick Chubb ($12.2 million) and Aaron Jones ($11.5 million).

That's the baseline.

When Taylor was healthy and operating in an effective offense, he was the best running back in the NFL with 1,811 rushing yards on 332 carries, a 5.5 average, and 18 touchdowns in 2021.

But last season − operating within an often dysfunctional offense − Taylor missed six games and rushed for 861 yards on 192 carries, a 4.5 average, with 4 touchdowns.

Given the nature of the position, it's difficult to expect the Colts to commit significant money to Taylor until he proves he's healthy. Taylor is entering his fourth season; 40% of second-round running backs are done by Year 5.

Let's assume Taylor is healthy and produces a season somewhere between 2021 and '22.

Chubb and Henry each received a $12 million signing bonus, with Chubb getting $20 million guaranteed and Henry $25.5 million. So let's start with a $12 million signing bonus and $20 million guaranteed over the first two seasons. After that, it's whether Taylor gets one or two non-guaranteed years at approximately $12 million. That's roughly $2 million less guaranteed than the franchise tags, but the Colts are taking on more risk rather than going year to year.

Henry hasn't been quite the same back since signing the deal − an injury-dampened 2021 and his yards per carry has dropped from 5.4 in 2020 to 4.4 − but with no more guaranteed years, it's been a reasonable contract. Chubb has retained most of his health and productivity − his yards per carry dropped from 5.5 to 5.0 in 2022, but with a career-high 1,525 rushing yards − making him a good value for the Browns.

So call it $12 million signing bonus, $20 million guaranteed, with a total of $36 million for three years or $48 million for four.

It's certainly understandable that Taylor is going to do everything he can to secure a contract extension. But it's equally hard to see the Colts giving him that deal until he's proven he's healthy.

But is it reasonable for the Colts to be cautious? Completely. It is going to make it an interesting training camp.



I want to see Taylor to be resigned, BUT he needs to get on the field and show he is healthy. Offer incentives, reward for production, but blindly handing out a big contract when he hasnt shown he can play is not sound financially. He cant help this team if he cant work with Richardson during camp

[Racehorse]

I was listening to a radio guy in Titansland today. His take on the RB situation is this: If RBs want to get paid serious dollars, they need to will their team to a championship. He even went so far as to point out Henry's low YPC in their most recent playoff losses, and the fact that even when he has a monster game, they are not guaranteed to win if the other team Has Mahomes or Borrow (pre-injury). I wish RBs would understand that they only have the low value because they can be stopped more easily than a great QB can.

[Hoopsdoc]

I get the sense that Taylor and his agent are trying to make a statement on behalf of running backs league wide. I think he’s asking for McCaffrey money, if not more.

I’m not necessarily opposed to paying him that much provided he’s healthy and it’s a relatively short contract. He’s the best in the league when healthy, imo.

[rm1369]

I get the sense that Taylor and his agent are trying to make a statement on behalf of running backs league wide. I think he’s asking for McCaffrey money, if not more.

I’m not necessarily opposed to paying him that much provided he’s healthy and it’s a relatively short contract. He’s the best in the league when healthy, imo.

If Taylor wants to reset the market for all the RBs he can do it somewhere else. If if he wants to be fairly compensated for his value then he needs to get his ass on the field and prove he’s health AND not just a 2 down back. Show them the receiving skills. Show them he can pass protect. Show them how dangerous a combo he and AR can make. This team has a history of paying their own, and paying them well. But if he’s looking for a statement he can make it elsewhere. Unfortunately that’s sounding more and more likely.

[Hoopsdoc]

If Taylor wants to reset the market for all the RBs he can do it somewhere else. If if he wants to be fairly compensated for his value then he needs to get his ass on the field and prove he’s health AND not just a 2 down back. Show them the receiving skills. Show them he can pass protect. Show them how dangerous a combo he and AR can make. This team has a history of paying their own, and paying them well. But if he’s looking for a statement he can make it elsewhere. Unfortunately that’s sounding more and more likely.

I don’t disagree but I feel like the Colts really need Taylor if they’re going to roll with Richardson. They need a guy who can take it to the house. Deon Jackson is ok but he’s not that guy.

Taylor is.

I realize things don’t always work out, but the ideal situation for Anthony Richardson and the Colts would be to have a happy and healthy JT at running back on opening day.

[Oldcolt]

We don't need Taylor. We need a running game. Don't need Taylor for that, we need a resurgence of the offensive line. We cannot keep having the highest paid players in every position that isn't critical to winning.

[ChaosTheory]

I don’t disagree but I feel like the Colts really need Taylor if they’re going to roll with Richardson. They need a guy who can take it to the house. Deon Jackson is ok but he’s not that guy.

Taylor is.

I realize things don’t always work out, but the ideal situation for Anthony Richardson and the Colts would be to have a happy and healthy JT at running back on opening day.

Taylor is obviously a luxury that would benefit Richardson and the rest of the team. But that's the point of this whole disgruntled RB situation. Because it is a luxury and rarely a necessity (even then, it's a fine line).

Richardson, especially if he lives up to potential, will create a mutually beneficial relationship with whatever RB is back there with him. A Zack Moss (and co.) might not break 70-yarders, but the D also can't let him gouge them for 8, 12, 16 yards all the way down the field because they want to focus on the QB.

Don't get me wrong, I want the house calls and everything else JT brings... But this franchise in particular knows first hand about that fine line from winning the SB the year they let Edgerrin James leave.

[Hoopsdoc]

Taylor is obviously a luxury that would benefit Richardson and the rest of the team. But that's the point of this whole disgruntled RB situation. Because it is a luxury and rarely a necessity (even then, it's a fine line).

Richardson, especially if he lives up to potential, will create a mutually beneficial relationship with whatever RB is back there with him. A Zack Moss (and co.) might not break 70-yarders, but the D also can't let him gouge them for 8, 12, 16 yards all the way down the field because they want to focus on the QB.

Don't get me wrong, I want the house calls and everything else JT brings... But this franchise in particular knows first hand about that fine line from winning the SB the year they let Edgerrin James leave.

I just think JT’s ability to hit home runs as well as those 8, 12, 16 yard runs is EXTREMELY valuable considering you also have a quarterback who can do that.

[rm1369]

I just think JT’s ability to hit home runs as well as those 8, 12, 16 yard runs is EXTREMELY valuable considering you also have a quarterback who can do that.

Pass blocking and being an effective outlet receiver are more valuable for AR’s development IMO than the occasional home run. Don’t get me wrong, JTs ability with AR could be exciting but until proven otherwise JT is a two down back. And I expect ARs biggest struggles will be on 3rd down - where JT is least effective overall.

[JAFF]

I don’t disagree but I feel like the Colts really need Taylor if they’re going to roll with Richardson. They need a guy who can take it to the house. Deon Jackson is ok but he’s not that guy.

Taylor is.

I realize things don’t always work out, but the ideal situation for Anthony Richardson and the Colts would be to have a happy and healthy JT at running back on opening day.

I dont understand how the agent thinks the Colts can commit money to Taylor when he has not been medically clear to PRACTICE, let alone play. He may not be ready for the season.