firing Frank Reich won't help the Colts this season

[JAFF]

https://www.indystar.com/story/sports/nfl/colts/2022/09/22/nfl-history-says-firing-colts-coach-frank-reich-wont-help/69506356007/

5 numbers on why NFL history says firing Frank Reich won't help the Colts this season
Nat Newell
Indianapolis Star
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The cries for Indianapolis Colts coach Frank Reich's job started on social media before halftime of Sunday's 24-0 loss in Jacksonville.

"@colts please fire Frank Reich time for him to go!!! Time to let em go!"

"Dominated in every aspect of the game. How do you NOT fire Reich tomorrow? If you are going to do it at the end of the year why do you wait?"

Others have pointed to Reich's winning record and the fact team owner Jim Irsay has never fired a coach midseason as reasons it won't happen.

There is no way to predict what will happen with the Colts and Reich but we can look back at NFL history and see what has happened.

Thirty-six coaches have been fired in-season since 2000. We will exclude Jon Gruden from the dataset since his resignation came as a result of homophobic and misogynist language he used in emails that went public, not his team's on-field performance.


More:Doyel: Colts think they're OK, which means Colts need a lobotomy

Sep 11, 2022; Houston, Texas, USA; Indianapolis Colts head coach Frank Reich looks on during practice before the game against the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium.
Here are five key numbers from the remaining 35 coaches:

0

Teams that made the playoffs after firing their coach during the season. This shouldn't be a surprise, coaches don't get fired if they're competing for playoff berths.

3

The fewest games a coach has coached in a season before being fired. Bruce Coslet was fired after losing the first three games in 2000 for Cincinnati. Three coaches have been fired after four games, and three others after five. The average number of games is 10.


10

More than a quarter of the coaches fired had a winning record with the team. Reich is 37-29-1, a .560 winning percentage. Five of the coaches in this dataset had better records: Mike Martz (.624), Mike McCarthy (.618), Dennis Green (.610), Wade Phillips (.607) and Dave Wannstedt (.575). Phillips (1-7) and Wannstedt (1-8) are the most relevant, getting fired during a horrific season after a successful run with their team. The fired coaches as a whole had a .474 winning percentage.


.062

That's the win percentage improvement of the replacement coaches, equivalent to 1 win over a 17-game season. Firing your coach midseason usually results in a better record -- 23 times -- but the improvement is marginal. Only 10 of the new coaches posted a winning record, the best was two games over .500.

11

The Colts are one of 11 teams to have not fired a coach midseason since 2000.

[Chromeburn]

I would think this would be common sense. Firing the coach mean starting over to some extent. New systems, new coaches, new players to fit that system.

[HoosierinFL]

Firing a coach never (or rarely) saves a team's season, mid-season.

However, firing a coach can save a team's next season. That is, if a coach is toxic, that can destroy a team and its culture. That much doesn't seem relevant to Reich and the Colts, but if a coach loses the locker room and the team loses its trust in the coach, then this can cause fractures within the team that can carry over into future seasons. The goal of an interim coach is usually not about winning but about keeping the team together for the rest of the year. Thus there can be good reasons to let go of a coach mid-year, even acknowledging it will cause more Ls than Ws in the record, if the goal is to send the message that the team is more important than the coach.

[CletusPyle]

Unless you have a candidate already on the staff (we don't) it would be tough to bring in a new coach mid season. The real question is, what does Reich have to do (record wise) to keep his job? Would just getting to the playoffs do it, or would he need to win at least one playoff game? I assume no playoffs, no job?

[ChoppedWood]

Firing a coach never (or rarely) saves a team's season, mid-season.

However, firing a coach can save a team's next season. That is, if a coach is toxic, that can destroy a team and its culture. That much doesn't seem relevant to Reich and the Colts, but if a coach loses the locker room and the team loses its trust in the coach, then this can cause fractures within the team that can carry over into future seasons. The goal of an interim coach is usually not about winning but about keeping the team together for the rest of the year. Thus there can be good reasons to let go of a coach mid-year, even acknowledging it will cause more Ls than Ws in the record, if the goal is to send the message that the team is more important than the coach.

That's where I am at. This season, with him leading it, is a goner. Unfortunately we have a reasonable chance at making the PO's, simply because this division is atrocious. But I don't want us to make the PO's! 1- low level draft picks, 2- It means he is likely around next year, which creates # 3- Another year of him coaching the will out of young guys that need to be taught fire and will vs what is clearly some kind of quiet strength mantra that he seeks to instill.

No, set the table for next year by eliminating his whatever it is, right effing now. F this season. Fire him, lose a bunch, get a good draft positions, and spend months finding a guy that can push these guys vs trying to be their father figure.

[IndyNorm]

Firing a coach never (or rarely) saves a team's season, mid-season.

However, firing a coach can save a team's next season. That is, if a coach is toxic, that can destroy a team and its culture. That much doesn't seem relevant to Reich and the Colts, but if a coach loses the locker room and the team loses its trust in the coach, then this can cause fractures within the team that can carry over into future seasons. The goal of an interim coach is usually not about winning but about keeping the team together for the rest of the year. Thus there can be good reasons to let go of a coach mid-year, even acknowledging it will cause more Ls than Ws in the record, if the goal is to send the message that the team is more important than the coach.

Excellent post. If the shit show performances of the last 3 weeks (including week 18 of last year) continue on too much longer then it'll be clear that Reich has lost the locker room (of course it could also mean that Ballard gave him a shit team to work with). What happens then? Does Irsay fire Reich to send a message to the team?

[Racehorse]

Unless you have a candidate already on the staff (we don't) it would be tough to bring in a new coach mid season. The real question is, what does Reich have to do (record wise) to keep his job? Would just getting to the playoffs do it, or would he need to win at least one playoff game? I assume no playoffs, no job?

If we were to turn it around, and win a playoff game, it would mean the locker room has not tuned him out. That might save his job. If we look like a hot mess the next couple of games, he is toast.

[YDFL Commish]

Unless you have a candidate already on the staff (we don't) it would be tough to bring in a new coach mid season. The real question is, what does Reich have to do (record wise) to keep his job? Would just getting to the playoffs do it, or would he need to win at least one playoff game? I assume no playoffs, no job?

You would think that with John Fox on staff, that he could at least be able to point out where the problems are and how to correct them.

That guy has coached a lot of football.

[omahacolt]

You would think that with John Fox on staff, that he could at least be able to point out where the problems are and how to correct them.

That guy has coached a lot of football.

some issues you can't correct. like the LT position and WR. there are moves that can be made but ballard will not do it

[DragonTails]

I think the players will actually try this week and probably will win. Vegas thinks so to.

0-2 brings out desperation. (or 0-1-1)

[Chromeburn]

I think the players will actually try this week and probably will win. Vegas thinks so to.

0-2 brings out desperation. (or 0-1-1)

Chiefs are in mid season form. We are in pre camp form. KC coming off a mini bye.

[HoosierinFL]

Unless you have a candidate already on the staff (we don't) it would be tough to bring in a new coach mid season. The real question is, what does Reich have to do (record wise) to keep his job? Would just getting to the playoffs do it, or would he need to win at least one playoff game? I assume no playoffs, no job?

it would almost surely be John Fox, but is he really a guy that the team would rally around?

[HoosierinFL]

I think the players will actually try this week and probably will win. Vegas thinks so to.

0-2 brings out desperation. (or 0-1-1)


As I had commented in a different thread, this team under Reich has a history of playing down to bad teams and being competitive against the good ones, even beating them. I suspect we'll see more of the same and we'll actually compete well against the Chiefs, but I also suspect the Chiefs will win. At this point they are a very good experienced team playing at a high level.

[CletusPyle]

it would almost surely be John Fox, but is he really a guy that the team would rally around?

I'll admit when I wrote my original post I forgot about Fox, he would be an option, but I was thinking more about a younger guy in the wings that had head coaching aspirations....some teams have those guys, we currently don't in my opinion. I don't see the point of bringing in Fox for half a season and then replacing him next year.

[Brylok]

I think the players will actually try this week and probably will win. Vegas thinks so to.

0-2 brings out desperation. (or 0-1-1)

Huh? The Chiefs are 5.5 point favorites in Indianapolis. "Vegas" does not think the Colts will win. Smh

[JAFF]

There is talent on the team, we have seen it. Something broke this team last season and dumping the QB has not solved it.

[IndyNorm]

Huh? The Chiefs are 5.5 point favorites in Indianapolis. "Vegas" does not think the Colts will win. Smh

You beat me to it, as I'm seeing the same odds.

If anyone knows of a site where the Colts are favored please let me know so I can go put a shitload of money on the Chiefs. Although I should probably just do that anyway.

[IndyNorm]

That's where I am at. This season, with him leading it, is a goner. Unfortunately we have a reasonable chance at making the PO's, simply because this division is atrocious. But I don't want us to make the PO's! 1- low level draft picks, 2- It means he is likely around next year, which creates # 3- Another year of him coaching the will out of young guys that need to be taught fire and will vs what is clearly some kind of quiet strength mantra that he seeks to instill.

No, set the table for next year by eliminating his whatever it is, right effing now. F this season. Fire him, lose a bunch, get a good draft positions, and spend months finding a guy that can push these guys vs trying to be their father figure.

We're not making the playoffs. In order for bad teams to make the playoffs b/c they're in a bad division the team needs to be able to beat the other teams in said bad division. This is something we've clearly shown that we're incapable of :cool:

[dwilli57]

Brings me back to the old "Suck for Chuck" and "Suck for Luck" days! We need something different here. They're not even fun to watch.

[DragonTails]

Chiefs are in mid season form. We are in pre camp form. KC coming off a mini bye.

Exactly.

[DragonTails]

You beat me to it, as I'm seeing the same odds.

If anyone knows of a site where the Colts are favored please let me know so I can go put a shitload of money on the Chiefs. Although I should probably just do that anyway.

This line should be closer to 10 but it's only 4.5.

[Hoopsdoc]

some issues you can't correct. like the LT position and WR. there are moves that can be made but ballard will not do it

Don’t worry though, at the end of the season Ballard will talk about having learned his lesson.

Hell, in April he flat out said they can’t count on Campbell to be the number 2 and they went into the season doing exactly that.

And counting on Pryor was just ridiculously dumb. Now Raimann is hurt so they’re stuck with him at least for today. Dunlap and Karlaftis will run circles around him.

And then next season, rinse and repeat.

[Dam8610]

Don’t worry though, at the end of the season Ballard will talk about having learned his lesson.

Hell, in April he flat out said they can’t count on Campbell to be the number 2 and they went into the season doing exactly that.

And counting on Pryor was just ridiculously dumb. Now Raimann is hurt so they’re stuck with him at least for today. Dunlap and Karlaftis will run circles around him.

And then next season, rinse and repeat.

They drafted Pierce to be the #2. It was a gamble, but looks to be paying off.

[Racehorse]

They drafted Pierce to be the #2. It was a gamble, but looks to be paying off.

He had two great catches today. Not a bad day for him, after Week 1.