The 2023 Plan

[Ironshaft]

At this point, after only two games, I think that the season is already “lost” for a chance for this team to be in any kind of serious playoff contention. I am not discounting that the team could get on a run, win some games and potentially sneak into the playoffs but even if we do, there is something seriously missing from the composition of the team.

In fact, I think that it is much more likely that we will be in contention for a top five draft pick than a playoff run. Regardless of what we though our talent level on the field was prior to the season starting, the first two games have shown that our talent level is lacking but more importantly, the heart and fire of the team is lacking. This Colts team lacks passion about winning.

As some sports writer pointed out, over the past three games, the Colts have been outscored something like 70-6 through the first three quarters of each game. That is against JAX, HOU and JAX. Those teams are going no where against the rest of the league but they have taken the Colts out behind the woodshed and beat them like a red-headed step-child.

There is something wrong with the composition of this team. It cannot be one or two players missing (Leonard, Pittman). It is a systemic problem that needs to be completely burned out from the roots.

The Plan:

- Ballard. I am on the fence about Ballard. On one hand, I appreciate greatly his “system” of talent evaluation, his management of the salary cap, his ability to draft certain guys who end up performing well. However, he also makes bets on his talent evaluation that have been much, much, much less successful. Going into the season 2022 season with a journeyman left tackle backed up by a 3rd round raw rookie was a terrible bet. Bringing in no experienced wide receiver depth this season was a terrible bet. Betting on Yannick appears, at this point, to have been a bad bet. Continuing to draft physical studs who are “raw” and need time…..and time…..and time to develop looks to be a bad bet. I am good if Jim Irsay decides to fire him and I am fine if he returns on a SHORT leash.

- Coaching Staff. Needs to go. All of them. Top to bottom. Whomever is the new Head Coach needs complete freedom to bring in “their” guys. Who that head coach is? Not a clue. But it is time for Jim to make another big decision for the franchise and we as the fans need to hope he gets it right.

- Retain every player on their rookie contract for training camp next season. They are cheap and there is no reason to not retain them. Evaluate them in training camp and pick the best guys.

- There are no Colts scheduled for Restricted Free Agency in 2023 so no early decisions need to be made there.

- Every player on a veteran contract needs to be evaluated on their ability to fit into the next coaching scheme and their ability to contribute to the team. No one should be given a “pass” just because of draft status or past contributions. I don’t want anyone retained that would not fit into the new coach’s philosophy of how to team build. Not just play on the field but attitude in the locker room as well. No one should be safe. Every single player should be evaluated and judged on their worth to the next coaching staff. No sacred cows.

That being said, there are a two guys who it would be quite painful to cut in 2023:

Quenton Nelson. Would deliver $18m in cap loss if cut rather than retained ($30.8m cap hit vs $12.2m cap hit if he is cut in 2023). Since he is one of our best players, I have little doubt he would pass any review of his performance.

Shaquillie Leonard. He would deliver only a $4m cap loss if cut rather than retained ($24.0m cap hit vs $20.12m cap hit if cut in 2023). Again, since he is one of our best players…

That’s it. Those are the only players in 2023 that would deliver negative cap hit if cut. Every other contract the Colts own would add to the cap space if the player were cut (exception is Alec Pierce but he is on his rookie contract and cheap so he should be retained anyway).

Colts currently only have around $17m in free cap space in 2023 that they could use to sign new free agents. The following veterans would delivery big chunks of addition cap relief:

QB Matt Ryan = $35.200m
DT DeForest Buckner = $19.750m
RT Braden Smith = $19.000m
CB Stephan Gilmore = $9.980m
NT Grover Stewart = $9.375m
CB Kenny Moore = $7.545m
OC Ryan Kelly = $7.875m
RB Nyheim Hines = $3.290m
TE Mo Allie-Cox = $2.920m
PK Rigoberto Sanchez = $2.900m
((I stopped at a cap savings of $2.500m because it becomes pretty small change at that point))

Hard decisions on veterans. The Matt Ryan decision is easy if we end up going top five and getting a new franchise QB. After that, I would trust the next coaching staff and potential GM to decide the player’s worth.

Who would that leave us with? With just rookies and veterans whose cap savings is less than $2.5m if cut?

QB – Nick Foles ($2.1m cap savings if cut), Sam Ehlinger
RB – Jonathan Taylor
WR – Michael Pittman Jr, Alec Pierce, Dezmon Pattmon, Mike Strachan
TE – Kylen Granson, Jelani Woods, Andrew Ogletree
OT – Bernard Raimann, Luke Tenuta
OG – Quenton Nelson ($18.600m cap LOSS if cut), Danny Pinter, Will Fries
OC – Wesley French

NT – None
DT – Eric Johnson
DE – Kwity Paye, Dayo Odeyingbo,
LB – Shaquille Leonard ($3.790m cap LOSS if cut), JoJo Domann, Grant Stuard)
S – Julian Blackmon, Nick Cross, Rodney Thomas, Trevor Denbow
CB – Isaiah Rodgers, Dallis Flowers

Realistically, with a high pick rookie QB, it is at least a two year rebuild and more likely a three year rebuild.

The only real young building blocks the Colts have are: Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman, Shaquille Leonard and Quenton Nelson.

There are some nice “lower” paid guys like: Grover Stewart, Nyheim Hines, Bobby Okereke, Tyquan Lewis and Zaire Franklin who are will be off their rookie contracts in 2023 whom are nice pieces but not building blocks.

I am convinced that the current path will not deliver Colts Nation to the promised land. We need to rebuild the team in a new image. It all has to go and get replaced.

[Lov2fish]

Wish I could thank this post more than once. Dang I like having you back.

[Oldcolt]

I am in complete agreement with you Ironshaft. The fact that the play from last years disaster has not changed but in fact has gotten worse confirms it for me. They won’t but they should start now. Sit players and see what the back ups have. For me the only issue is I am closing in on 70 and am not sure I have another rebuild in me. I also have zero faith in Irsay. He totally sucks at choosing leadership (I’ll give it to him that it is incredibly hard to do). I wish he would let his daughters have a chance. Oh well a blind squirrel and all.

[Hoopsdoc]

If they get embarrassed again Sunday, which I think is likely, does Jim start firing people?

[CletusPyle]

Thank you Ironshaft for all your work here, after Indy beat Buffalo and the 49ers last season, some experts had them as the 5th best team in the league. We all know what happened after that...if Ryan is better than Wentz, and that was the world wide consensus, then how does this team go from a potential AFC championship contender without Ryan, to a potential #5 worst team in the league with Ryan? And if that is true, why should the most amazing and brilliant GM in the Galaxy get to keep his job?:confused:

[omahacolt]

If they get embarrassed again Sunday, which I think is likely, does Jim start firing people?

i don't think he does. it will be at the end of the year if anyone is fired

[Oldcolt]

i don't think he does. it will be at the end of the year if anyone is fired

Would that be enough to put in back ups to see what we actually have? For me as a fan it would at least give me a reason to watch the games.

[CletusPyle]

Would that be enough to put in back ups to see what we actually have? For me as a fan it would at least give me a reason to watch the games.

The worst part is another wasted year for Taylor! I'm hoping they shock the world and turn this around!

[Ironshaft]

i don't think he does. it will be at the end of the year if anyone is fired

I agree. He saw his father act that way and has said in interview after interview that he will not repeat that.

After the season is much more likely.

However, if we are sitting at 0-9-1, all bets are off!

[MeSayDayo]

I am on board with all of this.

I am already asking the questions of just HOW HIGH of a draft pick we might end up with this year. A hell of a lot hinges on that. If it is a top 10 pick, we are in business. If it isn't...what is it going to take to get us there? I am guessing to trade up for one of the top 3 QB's (Assume we have a 12-15 overall pick) we would be giving up this years first, next years first, and another second plus someone like Buckner.

So, here is to hoping that the Colts play the long game, get a look at younger guys/Ehlinger and finally make a big swing at a young franchise QB.

Do you think that a coach and GM would do that when they are already feeling their seats getting warm? I don't.

Therein lies the problem and also the reason why we need to retain Ballard through any sort of transition or rebuild. The rebuilt starts with a bit of a throwaway campaign this season- and I don't expect that to even happen unless we are so bad and winning no games that we have to pull Ryan- or an injury to Ryan.

I also wonder if we keep Ryan around to mentor said rookie through his rookie year. If Ryan is bad enough to get pulled anyway, I imagine he won't be looking for starter work elsewhere or would just retire. I'm okay with either.

If we do land top 5 pick I think we stand pat and are in great shape to surround the kid with talent, as we have another 2 second rounders. If we really want to get savvy and trade Buckner, Nelson, Leonard or JT for a first we may even get to pair up our rookie with another weapon. JT is amazing but only in his prime for another 5 years max.

I completely agree that everything should be on the table. This team needs to realign its assets and build a championship spine to our roster. Part of that comes with building around a rookie QB on a rookie pay scale, which we are already ready to accommodate perhaps.

[rcubed]

We wont be sitting players to get a look at younger guys and tanking. We will win enough games to make it painful for ballard to move up to get a new shiny QB. So ballard will trade back and get a "better value" QB in the early second round and we will live in mediocrity.

[Hoopsdoc]

i don't think he does. it will be at the end of the year if anyone is fired

If they keep getting embarrassed like this he may not have a choice.

[omahacolt]

Would that be enough to put in back ups to see what we actually have? For me as a fan it would at least give me a reason to watch the games.

no

they won't tank

[omahacolt]

If they keep getting embarrassed like this he may not have a choice.

that would be the only way but i don't see that happening. i find that extremely unlikely unless we get major injuries

[Dam8610]

I have to say I'm surprised at this thread, based on who the OP is. We are 2 games in. If the Colts have several more performances like Jacksonville, sure, pitchforks and torches, but the top 2 WRs were out and if you look at any metric other than the score for the Houston game, you'd expect a lopsided win in favor of the Colts. With 15 games to go, there is far too much wait and see left to believe this team is currently Top 5 pick trajectory. Plus, we've all been fooled by the first two games with this team too many times to believe they'll roll over like everyone is suggesting.

[Chromeburn]

There is too much talent on this team to tank. RBs go in dog years. Waiting for a rookie Qb will likely mean the decline of JT.

I hate to say it, but OT is the problem. LT is the lynchpin of this line and they haven’t been good since Castonzo left. We could have drafted Darrisaw last year but they wanted Paye. Paye showed up ast game so the jury is still out. But Darrisaw was getting comps to Trent Williams in camp. He could end up being very good. These journeymen at LT is not going to get it done. It collapses the whole line. Pinter should be a backup center. Unless Raimann can get up to speed, it’s going to be a long season. Everything starts with the line. Protecting Ryan and opening holes. Having sustained drives and keeping the defense fresh, and the line starts with left tackle.

[Dam8610]

There is too much talent on this team to tank. RBs go in dog years. Waiting for a rookie Qb will likely mean the decline of JT.

I hate to say it, but OT is the problem. LT is the lynchpin of this line and they haven’t been good since Castonzo left. We could have drafted Darrisaw last year but they wanted Paye. Paye showed up ast game so the jury is still out. But Darrisaw was getting comps to Trent Williams in camp. He could end up being very good. These journeymen at LT is not going to get it done. It collapses the whole line. Pinter should be a backup center. Unless Raimann can get up to speed, it’s going to be a long season. Everything starts with the line. Protecting Ryan and opening holes. Having sustained drives and keeping the defense fresh, and the line starts with left tackle.

Raimann looked good against Travon Walker, which is not a thing many LTs can say. Leno struggled against him the prior week. Raimann at LT and Pryor at RG is the way to plug the holes for now IMO.

[ChoppedWood]

There is too much talent on this team to tank. RBs go in dog years. Waiting for a rookie Qb will likely mean the decline of JT.

I hate to say it, but OT is the problem. LT is the lynchpin of this line and they haven’t been good since Castonzo left. We could have drafted Darrisaw last year but they wanted Paye. Paye showed up ast game so the jury is still out. But Darrisaw was getting comps to Trent Williams in camp. He could end up being very good. These journeymen at LT is not going to get it done. It collapses the whole line. Pinter should be a backup center. Unless Raimann can get up to speed, it’s going to be a long season. Everything starts with the line. Protecting Ryan and opening holes. Having sustained drives and keeping the defense fresh, and the line starts with left tackle.

But in week 1 we put up 517, 5th highest total in the Indy era with a 300 yd passing game and a 150 yd rusher.

I completely agree with the statement on talent. The talent is there. The heart is not, and that sucks!

[Racehorse]

I have to say I'm surprised at this thread, based on who the OP is. We are 2 games in. If the Colts have several more performances like Jacksonville, sure, pitchforks and torches, but the top 2 WRs were out and if you look at any metric other than the score for the Houston game, you'd expect a lopsided win in favor of the Colts. With 15 games to go, there is far too much wait and see left to believe this team is currently Top 5 pick trajectory. Plus, we've all been fooled by the first two games with this team too many times to believe they'll roll over like everyone is suggesting.

Yeah, I think the Jags game is likely an anomaly. I also think the first of the HOU game is also an anomaly. (How many anomalies can exist in one season?) If we see them play with some level of fire against KC, and we have Pitt, Pierce, Maniac back, we could see a quick turnaround, and all of this talk is out the window (except getting rid of Frank) I think the roster is not a bottom 5 roster, but the adage of Any Given Sunday has bitten us twice already.

Then again, I tend to be an optimist.

[Oldcolt]

no

they won't tank

Really? They are doing a damn good impression so far

[Chromeburn]

Raimann looked good against Travon Walker, which is not a thing many LTs can say. Leno struggled against him the prior week. Raimann at LT and Pryor at RG is the way to plug the holes for now IMO.

Walker is a rookie, but it’s not a negative. Raimann also didn’t pick up one of the stunts that hot Ryan hammered which could be bad awareness and a rookie mistake. I assume they only went over it all week. I guess he is the hope bc Pryor can’t handle speed on the outside. Guess we have to ride the rookie LT train.

[Chromeburn]

We wont be sitting players to get a look at younger guys and tanking. We will win enough games to make it painful for ballard to move up to get a new shiny QB. So ballard will trade back and get a "better value" QB in the early second round and we will live in mediocrity.

I’m starting to think Ballard is to pass rushers as Grigson is to oline.

How would that be as an equation?

(Ballard+pass rushers) = (Grigson+offensive linemen)

[Ironshaft]

I have to say I'm surprised at this thread, based on who the OP is.
Why?

On one hand, you can say we are 2 games in.

On the other hand, we have gotten rocked in our last four games. Two with the playoffs on the line and two against divisional rivals who may not win another six games this season...combined. In the past three games, we have been outscored like 70-6 in the first three quarters of each game combined.

Some say we were close to winning @Houston. But we got our butts kicked for three quarters of the game regardless of the yardage stats. If they had been almost any other NFL besides one of the weakest, they would have been much further ahead with no chance of a tie.

All indications are that KC is going to throttle us this week. 0-2-1.

Playing TEN in week four may find both us and them looking for their first victory. I don't love our odds against them in that scenario. Our team lacks hunger.

Other than the yardage stats from HOU, what from the last four games would lead you to believe that this team has the ability to right the ship?

[IndyNorm]

Walker is a rookie, but it’s not a negative. Raimann also didn’t pick up one of the stunts that hot Ryan hammered which could be bad awareness and a rookie mistake. I assume they only went over it all week. I guess he is the hope bc Pryor can’t handle speed on the outside. Guess we have to ride the rookie LT train.

As Omaha suggested in another thread we could go with Kelly at LT until Raimann is ready.

[Chromeburn]

As Omaha suggested in another thread we could go with Kelly at LT until Raimann is ready.

I don’t know if Kelly has what it takes to move outside. Never heard of a center doing that. LTs are unique athletes. The good ones can do that kick slide and get into position. Kelly might be a larger liability than a rookie. I don’t know if there is an easy put with this. Like last year. May just have to ride it out…again.

I feel like this team is just always waiting for some area to develop.

[Dam8610]

Why?

On one hand, you can say we are 2 games in.

On the other hand, we have gotten rocked in our last four games. Two with the playoffs on the line and two against divisional rivals who may not win another six games this season...combined. In the past three games, we have been outscored like 70-6 in the first three quarters of each game combined.

Some say we were close to winning @Houston. But we got our butts kicked for three quarters of the game regardless of the yardage stats. If they had been almost any other NFL besides one of the weakest, they would have been much further ahead with no chance of a tie.

All indications are that KC is going to throttle us this week. 0-2-1.

Playing TEN in week four may find both us and them looking for their first victory. I don't love our odds against them in that scenario. Our team lacks hunger.

Other than the yardage stats from HOU, what from the last four games would lead you to believe that this team has the ability to right the ship?

Why are we including the COVID riddled Carson Wentz trash fires at the end of last season in any evaluation of the current team? The Jaguars have former top 10 picks at edge rusher, one who was just the #1 overall pick, and the other who had 10.5 sacks as a rookie. Combine with the Colts top 2 WRs being out, starting a guard at LT, and playcalling that played very much into that matchup being exposed, and it makes sense that Matt Ryan had what will likely be his worst performance of the year.

The biggest thing that leads me to believe the ship can be righted is that we've seen this movie before. Had Wentz not choked it away, last year would have been the second time in 4 seasons under Reich that the Colts made the playoffs after starting 1-4 or worse. The Colts have never been better than 1-1 under Reich after 2 games, but in all but 1 season, they were in playoff contention, and were it not for Carson Wentz being a COVID riddled trash fire in the last 2 games of the season, would've made the playoffs in 3 of 4 years with 4 different starting QBs. Getting off to a slow start every year sucks, and that is definitely something Reich needs to fix, but I'm not willing to believe that Matt Pryor getting exposed against an athlete like Travon Walker and the Colts top 2 receivers being out means that this team is devoid of talent and about to make a run at a Top 5 pick. There's way too much season left to say that at this point.

[Dam8610]

I don’t know if Kelly has what it takes to move outside. Never heard of a center doing that. LTs are unique athletes. The good ones can do that kick slide and get into position. Kelly might be a larger liability than a rookie. I don’t know if there is an easy put with this. Like last year. May just have to ride it out…again.

I feel like this team is just always waiting for some area to develop.

He meant Dennis Kelly, and that would only be a marginal upgrade on Pryor. Rookie held up against Walker, give him his shot. He won't do worse than Pryor.

[ChaosTheory]

Raimann looked good against Travon Walker, which is not a thing many LTs can say. Leno struggled against him the prior week. Raimann at LT and Pryor at RG is the way to plug the holes for now IMO.

Did you happen to look over the JAX-WAS game? I'm curious how the JAX D-line looked overall. Every time I go back and watch our OL, I feel like their fuck ups jump out to me less and JAX just manhandling them in 1-on-1's jumps out more.

[AlwaysSunnyinIndy]

That’s it. Those are the only players in 2023 that would deliver negative cap hit if cut. Every other contract the Colts own would add to the cap space if the player were cut


While I agree that most of the player contracts are written to minimize dead cap hits in later years, I don't think the Colts salary cap situation is as clean as you have indicated.

For instance, after the Colts traded for Matt Ryan, they made two adjustments to his contract. First, as a goodwill gesture, they guaranteed all the remaining money on his deal. Second, they diverted some of the cash flow from 2022 to 2023 to add some more cap space for this last offseason.

Not all of the various contract tracking websites have been fully updated to reflect these changes.


https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/matt-ryan-traded-to-colts-indy-fully-guarantees-remainder-of-contract-following-acquisition-of-falcons-legend/

[omahacolt]

He meant Dennis Kelly, and that would only be a marginal upgrade on Pryor. Rookie held up against Walker, give him his shot. He won't do worse than Pryor.

I don't mind giving Raimann a shot now. but Kelly is an option and probably an upgrade to pryor.

[Ironshaft]

While I agree that most of the player contracts are written to minimize dead cap hits in later years, I don't think the Colts salary cap situation is as clean as you have indicated.

For instance, after the Colts traded for Matt Ryan, they made two adjustments to his contract. First, as a goodwill gesture, they guaranteed all the remaining money on his deal. Second, they diverted some of the cash flow from 2022 to 2023 to add some more cap space for this last offseason.

Not all of the various contract tracking websites have been fully updated to reflect these changes.


https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/matt-ryan-traded-to-colts-indy-fully-guarantees-remainder-of-contract-following-acquisition-of-falcons-legend/
What is crazy is that all the sites changed his 2023 dead money numbers in just the past day. I draw my numbers from three sites and none of them had 2023 as guaranteed yesterday morning.

Either that or I am a moron. It could be that. I had forgotten the fully guaranteed provision.

Regardless, it makes a rebuild starting in 2023 very challenging other than draft class additions. We only have $17m-$18m in usable cap space to resign our free agents/add new veterans and they will have to make decisions on Okereke, Ngakoue, Dulin, Lewis, and Speed among others. Veteran starters would have to be cut which makes holes, etc.

Good catch.

[ChaosTheory]

I don't mind giving Raimann a shot now. but Kelly is an option and probably an upgrade to pryor.

If they're going to bail on Pryor, Raimann is the way to go. He's more physically gifted and needs experience. They're already rotating him so it seems to me they want him to take over.

Then I suppose the question is Pryor or Pinter at RG.

That said, I don't expect them to change the lineup. And I'm curious to see if this game was an anomaly and/or if JAX defensive front is just really good.

[omahacolt]

If they're going to bail on Pryor, Raimann is the way to go. He's more physically gifted and needs experience. They're already rotating him so it seems to me they want him to take over.

Then I suppose the question is Pryor or Pinter at RG.

That said, I don't expect them to change the lineup. And I'm curious to see if this game was an anomaly and/or if JAX defensive front is just really good.

i do expect them to change the lineup at some point. probably soon. and i get why Raimann would get the call up. just saying there is another option if the kid is going to come along slowly.

pryor over pinter at rg for sure. pinter has been terrible

[CanuckColt]

The worst part is another wasted year for Taylor! I'm hoping they shock the world and turn this around!

They can rest Taylor and run Hines up the middle 20 times for 20 yards.
What the hell is a small, light RB doing on the roster anyway?

[ChaosTheory]

i do expect them to change the lineup at some point. probably soon. and i get why Raimann would get the call up. just saying there is another option if the kid is going to come along slowly.

pryor over pinter at rg for sure. pinter has been terrible

I should clarify, because I do think Raimann will overtake Pryor. I meant no change short-term, like this week or something. Of course now Raimann is apparently hurt so who knows what that means.

I agree about Pinter. He may be worse at RG than Pryor has been at LT. Which I didn't see coming because I thought he did alright last season for Ryan Kelly.

Raimann-Nelson-Kelly-Pryor-Smith is probably ideal.

Kelly-Nelson-Kelly-Pryor-Smith at the very least has five guys in their natural positions unlike our current situation.

[Chromeburn]

He meant Dennis Kelly, and that would only be a marginal upgrade on Pryor. Rookie held up against Walker, give him his shot. He won't do worse than Pryor.

He could do worse. But the whole line is a disaster right now. I would just settle on one and move forward.

[Chromeburn]

Raimann looked good against Travon Walker, which is not a thing many LTs can say. Leno struggled against him the prior week. Raimann at LT and Pryor at RG is the way to plug the holes for now IMO.

I just finished watching all his snaps. You know, he didn’t look that bad. He missed the one stunt, but picked up the other two. Also on the stunt he missed, the DE had him hooked and if he would have left him he would have gotten to the QB sooner bc Nelson did not have him. I want to see more. Move him outside. Move Pryor inside and Pinter back to backup center.

[YDFL Commish]

I just finished watching all his snaps. You know, he didn’t look that bad. He missed the one stunt, but picked up the other two. Also on the stunt he missed, the DE had him hooked and if he would have left him he would have gotten to the QB sooner bc Nelson did not have him. I want to see more. Move him outside. Move Pryor inside and Pinter back to backup center.

Reich will do that when we get down 35-3 to the Chiefs.