ESPN Stupid Simulation

[YDFL Commish]

Had us going 8-8! WTF?
https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/29548083/simulating-entire-2020-nfl-season-scores-storylines-all-269-games-plus-super-bowl-champion

[rcubed]

Why is that such a shock?


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[Brylok]

Whatever is necessary to fellate Brady and company down in Tampa. Cowboys, too.

[JAFF]

What evidence is there that the Colts are better than their last record? The Titans arent much better, Houston and the Jags I think are worse. Who ever stays healthy this season (including covid) has the edge.

[Chromeburn]

How accurate are those each year? Honestly, how many wins came down to a couple plays last year?

[IndyNorm]

Not only does the record looking off for the Colts, but it has us getting blown out a lot. Including at home to the Jets and against the Lions. Don't see that happening.

[HoosierinFL]

I'm not pronouncing us superbowl contenders but we're definitely better than 8-8.
I guess people really think Rivers is done. (and yet they also think Brady is going to go into Tampa Bay and have a career year?)

I kinda think the opposite. Rivers is going from a bad system to a good system that fits him well. Brady is going into a good system but he was already in one and was starting to show decline, and it fits him less well, because he doesn't have the big arm, at least not as much as he used to.

And yea, we're not getting blown out by the Jets and Lions.

[HoosierinFL]

What evidence is there that the Colts are better than their last record? The Titans arent much better, Houston and the Jags I think are worse. Who ever stays healthy this season (including covid) has the edge.

Depends on what you mean by evidence.

Think about how we lost some games last year. How many were because of missed kicks? We all love AV but that was as bad a kicking season as we've ever seen. We don't know what the new guy will be like exactly, but he's gotta be better than what we had last year.

Is this offense better? You gotta think so. We've added new WRs and RB, other guys have gained experience (Pascal, Campbell). Rivers has got to be an upgrade over Brissett. The OL has another year under their belt as a unit. We didn't lose any major contributors.

Is the defense better? You gotta think so. We didn't lose any major contributors there either. Its a young defense that will have even more experience, and Buckner has gotta make the dline that much better.

I think just on special teams alone is good enough for a 2 game swing in the record. But put together all the rest, and it could be more.

[JAFF]

Nothing certain after the opening kickoff

[Hoopsdoc]

Why is that such a shock?


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Good question. I think 8-8 is more likely than 11-5 and somewhere in between is the most likely.

There are some question marks-is Rivers done, depth at wr and cb, etc.

[Dam8610]

Had us going 8-8! WTF?
https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/29548083/simulating-entire-2020-nfl-season-scores-storylines-all-269-games-plus-super-bowl-champion

They said in the article that that was 1 of 20,000 simulations. My guess is it was in the bottom half (maybe even bottom third?) of results for the Colts. This simulation was very kind to the Steelers, Lions, and Bears and produced a very weird result against the Jets. Change 3 of those games and the Colts are 11-5.

[CanuckColt]

Had us going 8-8! WTF?
https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/29548083/simulating-entire-2020-nfl-season-scores-storylines-all-269-games-plus-super-bowl-champion

They must have thought Brissett was at QB.

[Pez]

How accurate are those each year? Honestly, how many wins came down to a couple plays last year?

4 (if not 5) came down to missed kicks

[Pez]

Brady has 4600 yards.... his 5th best season ever. I'm a bit skeptical.